This is an endurance test. If you can make it through, you're probably a superfan, but many superfans won't. Netflix won't be promoting how many people made it to the end of this show. Because it's theatre, it's music, and neither has ever translated to the flat screen.
But you should watch it. It embodies the soul of rock and roll.
It doesn't know what it wants to be, a narrative or a concert. When Bruce says he's gonna read from his book...that's when you know he's doing this for fans, whereas most plays assume the audience comes in fresh, you have to set it up, say you've written a book, but not Bruce. And then Patti Scialfa comes out and from there on it's a concert when we want more narrative, more story, so the show ends up being neither fish nor fowl. For fans mostly. And as I've told you before, it's not Bruce I hate, but his fans. Who keep telling us how superlative he is, how great this show was, but if you weren't of their belief...you would have been bored by the songs and wished he'd finished the story arc of making it.
And now I'm experiencing the same conundrum Bruce did. Do you play to the audience or yourself? What Bruce's fans, what the industry wants me to do, is rant and rave and say this is the best thing ever. And it's pretty good, but it's not that. To be honest, Don Henley did a better job at Glenn Frey's memorial, he eclipsed all the musical performances, which included notables from Stevie Wonder to Bob Seger to everybody who ever wrote a song for the Eagles, never mind the Eagles themselves. You see Henley told the story of how he got here, the twists and turns, and he didn't always look good, and it was clear Frey was frequently leading him, but you went along on the ride and were wowed.
We get some of that here, but we want more.
And we want more shows like this by superstars, with possibly less music and more story. How did this all happen, how did the star get here?
That's the most riveting part of this performance, and most of it comes early, so tune in and watch for at least half an hour.
You see it started with Elvis Presley. Bruce does a better job of describing the impact of Elvis's performance on television than heretofore done by anyone else. How it changed the world, even though the media didn't know it, how it inspired Bruce to play the guitar, how it ignited our genitalia and our hearts. And then...
Bruce hated school. He says you can't make it unless you have hatred.
Whew, the honesty!
Bruce is laying it all out, without holding back, without being modest. This is not how the aw shucks stars do it, praising God and saying they're only a vessel, that you can make it too, they're nobody special. Rather, Bruce played anywhere and everywhere, he had a burning desire to make it. That's what it takes, and he tells you to go straight if you ain't got the hatred and desire. Your eyes will bug out at the truth laid down. The alchemy and power of a band.
Then there's the story of those lost to the war, Vietnam. This might be where youngsters tune out, all the reference points have changed, but if you lived through it, through the Beatles, when music drove the culture and everybody wanted to be in a band, it will resonate. And you know the musicians are gonna die. You can feel it. But Bruce makes it about the frontman's power, the inability of the drummer to play "Wipe Out"...and then they're gone.
And the curious thing is Bruce has no charisma, zero. You don't want to jump up and hug him, have sex with him, when it's all over you respect him, but realize he's different. He went on a magic carpet ride of his own devise, he earned it. He's both damaged and privileged.
You realize the man you've gotten on stage all these years is just that guy. Although a bit more introspective, a lot less happy and...
Yup, one of the highlights of Bruce's shows is the stories. And that's what this ends up like, it's a concert, rarely a play. And Bruce acknowledges that. But my point is if you like Bruce's raps...you'll like this.
Now if Bruce could have left money on the table, and seemingly no one can these days, he never should have let Netflix film and distribute this. It actually works against him. For example, if Aretha's gospel movie had been released when it had been recorded, it would have been no big deal. But decades later, after she died? If this was released ten or twenty years from now, it would be a bigger deal, insight into the man.
And I'd say that Bruce should take this on the road, but if you're big enough, the audience comes to you.
But how many other stars could garner this audience, could sustain a show for this long?
Probably few. It's about the rabid fan base more than the quality of the performer and the show.
And, I know this is heresy, when Bruce sings these songs, slowly, acoustically, they don't hold up that well. "My Hometown" is brilliant, "Growin' Up" is great, but you've got to forgive the endless gibberish of ongoing words, they're' evidence of a man hungry to make it, but is it memorable art?
But "Growin' Up" was early.
But most rockers run out of steam. At this point, the stars of yore don't even bother to put out new material, knowing no one will stream it and their live audiences don't want to hear it. But Bruce still soldiers on, he's on a quest.
And he delineates that extremely well...
But in a theatre you can't pause the action, you cannot check your phone, you're locked in, which is probably what made this show so memorable. But on Netflix... It's just another entertainment option, part of the great wash of choices.
But I'll remember a lot of this show, having slogged through it. What's most amazing is Bruce's sense of self, he knows who he is, that he's a superstar, and he worked hard to become one and those overpaying to see him are ardent fans. So the wisdom resonates.
But not often enough as you hear him sing songs that were not hits as you hear the iMessage sound and wonder what's happening in your own little world.
That's the difference, there used to be a clear line between stars and the rest of us.
Now everybody can be a star.
But back when it was hard to make it, Bruce did.
This show is testimony to that.
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Friday, 4 January 2019
Apple
This is what happens when innovation dies.
We've seen this movie before, with Sony. Sony developed the Trinitron television system, which was definitely better than its competitors, sharper, more true. And it charged about a hundred dollars more, when TV sets cost far from a thousand bucks. And then the whole world went to flat screens and Sony's business went kaput. So it went into software, buying a movie studio, installing rapists as its heads, and ended up writing down billions. Now Sony is just another Japanese company. Used to be their audio equipment was revered, at both high and low ends, remember the Walkman, what a breakthrough! But no one overpays for Sony anymore, it's an also-ran. One can argue the company plummeted with the death of Morita, same as Steve Jobs.
So Apple became so valuable when it owned a product category, the iPod, and kept diversifying and lowering the price of said music player.
This was in the era of hardware innovation. What came next was the iPhone, a juggernaut. But after Jobs died, it was decided that the iPhone would become an exclusive product, an aspirational product, that the masses would hunger for.
And then they didn't.
Used to be every upgrade was a wonder. From the 6 to a 7 one could notice the incredible increase in speed and the quality of photographs. Jump from a 7 to an Xs and you find the only real difference is the lack of a home button. Suddenly, mobile phones are like computers, you upgrade them once every five to ten years, otherwise there's no reason. Used to be as soon as you brought your computer home it was outdated, we were fascinated by the discussion of chips, now most people have no idea of the speed of their computers, they've become a commodity, just like mobile phones.
While Apple was busy trumpeting its margins, saying it was the only entity making money in the smartphone sector, Chinese competitors worked to undercut them, to the point where today they're almost as good. But the worst thing in China was Apple was undermined by WeChat, where most mobile phone owners in China spend their time. That's software innovation, which Apple has been sorely lacking. Hell, Siri was first and now it is last. Amazon develops Alexa and keeps lowering the price and owns what market share Google doesn't pick up. Meanwhile, Apple is so busy refining and overpricing its HomePod that it's dead on arrival. Sure, it sounds better, but if I'm that interested in sound I'll go to the stereo shop, the ones that still exist, turns out most people don't care about sound quality these days, or are unwilling to pay for it. Furthermore, HomePod doesn't play with competitors' services. This strategy works when you're the leader, not the follower, when your product supersedes others, the HomePod certainly does not.
And then there's the music fiasco. Waiting too long to get into streaming. And then integrating files and streams into the same hobbled app. Kinda funny for a company that was known for killing legacy ports. You leave the past behind, you keep pushing the envelope.
Meanwhile, Wall Street loves the numbers. Like a pop act riding its very last hit. No one can see the disaster coming, because in America, everyone's focused on the money.
But just like a band, tech companies are dependent upon hits.
As for the vaunted ecosystem... By missing WeChat, by not buying WhatsApp, Apple stood by while its competitors made inroads into its main business.
And the prices keep rising.
In tech we expect prices to start fair and then drop, meanwhile, the price of an iPhone has climbed into the stratosphere. You no longer have envy, your handset is good enough.
And with so many on so many devices you're no longer judged on the device you're using. Most can't tell. And purchasing one used to be a no-brainer, now it's like buying a car, are the payments worth it?
I've been trumpeting the fall of Apple for years. And been excoriated for it. But it's akin to Kodak and digital cameras. The fall came late, and then it happened overnight and was complete.
You buy a new phone when you need one, not when you want one.
Microsoft's Surface is the desktop replacement, not the iPad Pro.
Apple's Macs are an afterthought and usually behind the tech times. They employ the same Intel chips as the competition's computers, it's just that they're installed late and kept for far too long. Replacers are yearning for hot machines, and Apple doesn't deliver them.
Sure, Apple makes the best phone. (You can argue about this, but let's not.)
Sure, Apple has the best ecosystem. (Google's is close, but no cigar.)
Sure, Apple has the best designed products. (But not by much anymore.)
Sure, Apple has the best service. (By a long shot.)
But is everybody willing to pay for this?
No.
Meanwhile, the vaunted world's most valuable company has lost that position, hell, even Microsoft has superseded Apple in value, primarily because of innovation in the cloud, and in addition the Cupertino company lost a double digit percentage of its overall value.
Let this be a lesson to you. Nothing is forever. And never underestimate the power of a leader, and the power of the public. The public can change preferences on a whim. And then they oftentimes switch to a new individual, a new leader, a new record producer, like Max Martin. You're hot, and then you're not.
What made Steve Jobs so legendary was his ability to see where the market was going, what the public wanted, years before anybody else. And sure, not all his ideas were brand new, but the execution was superb. Anybody can have a good idea, but bringing it to attractive fruition? That's a whole 'nother thing.
And icons are not easily replaced. We've been waiting for a new Dylan for sixty years, but he has not shown up.
Where is the new John Lennon?
We've got very good, sometimes even great, but iconic?
That's rare.
Sure, Jony Ive is a top-tier designer, but he needs to be told what to do.
Tim Cook is incapable of that. Categorically. He's a logistics expert. It's like making the head of promotion the head of the label. Promotion is important, but signing and nurturing acts is a different skill, and the talent, the tracks, are the most important part of the enterprise. It's like having a world class factory with nothing to make.
And when you're on top, making change, you're excoriated.
And quite possibly crazy. Steve Jobs could be a bully, he had no time for manners. Elon Musk does not know there are rules, whether they be business or societal.
But it is these geniuses we yearn for, who change the world.
There's no one like this at Apple today.
The company faded once, it can happen again. There is no catalogue in tech, it's all what have you done for me lately. It's about retaining talent and taking risks. Amazon failed with the Fire phone and then came up with the juggernaut known as Alexa. Apple kept polishing its jewels until suddenly no one wanted them anymore.
Oh, that's not true.
How do you lose your fortune?
Very slowly, then all at once.
We've seen this movie before, with Sony. Sony developed the Trinitron television system, which was definitely better than its competitors, sharper, more true. And it charged about a hundred dollars more, when TV sets cost far from a thousand bucks. And then the whole world went to flat screens and Sony's business went kaput. So it went into software, buying a movie studio, installing rapists as its heads, and ended up writing down billions. Now Sony is just another Japanese company. Used to be their audio equipment was revered, at both high and low ends, remember the Walkman, what a breakthrough! But no one overpays for Sony anymore, it's an also-ran. One can argue the company plummeted with the death of Morita, same as Steve Jobs.
So Apple became so valuable when it owned a product category, the iPod, and kept diversifying and lowering the price of said music player.
This was in the era of hardware innovation. What came next was the iPhone, a juggernaut. But after Jobs died, it was decided that the iPhone would become an exclusive product, an aspirational product, that the masses would hunger for.
And then they didn't.
Used to be every upgrade was a wonder. From the 6 to a 7 one could notice the incredible increase in speed and the quality of photographs. Jump from a 7 to an Xs and you find the only real difference is the lack of a home button. Suddenly, mobile phones are like computers, you upgrade them once every five to ten years, otherwise there's no reason. Used to be as soon as you brought your computer home it was outdated, we were fascinated by the discussion of chips, now most people have no idea of the speed of their computers, they've become a commodity, just like mobile phones.
While Apple was busy trumpeting its margins, saying it was the only entity making money in the smartphone sector, Chinese competitors worked to undercut them, to the point where today they're almost as good. But the worst thing in China was Apple was undermined by WeChat, where most mobile phone owners in China spend their time. That's software innovation, which Apple has been sorely lacking. Hell, Siri was first and now it is last. Amazon develops Alexa and keeps lowering the price and owns what market share Google doesn't pick up. Meanwhile, Apple is so busy refining and overpricing its HomePod that it's dead on arrival. Sure, it sounds better, but if I'm that interested in sound I'll go to the stereo shop, the ones that still exist, turns out most people don't care about sound quality these days, or are unwilling to pay for it. Furthermore, HomePod doesn't play with competitors' services. This strategy works when you're the leader, not the follower, when your product supersedes others, the HomePod certainly does not.
And then there's the music fiasco. Waiting too long to get into streaming. And then integrating files and streams into the same hobbled app. Kinda funny for a company that was known for killing legacy ports. You leave the past behind, you keep pushing the envelope.
Meanwhile, Wall Street loves the numbers. Like a pop act riding its very last hit. No one can see the disaster coming, because in America, everyone's focused on the money.
But just like a band, tech companies are dependent upon hits.
As for the vaunted ecosystem... By missing WeChat, by not buying WhatsApp, Apple stood by while its competitors made inroads into its main business.
And the prices keep rising.
In tech we expect prices to start fair and then drop, meanwhile, the price of an iPhone has climbed into the stratosphere. You no longer have envy, your handset is good enough.
And with so many on so many devices you're no longer judged on the device you're using. Most can't tell. And purchasing one used to be a no-brainer, now it's like buying a car, are the payments worth it?
I've been trumpeting the fall of Apple for years. And been excoriated for it. But it's akin to Kodak and digital cameras. The fall came late, and then it happened overnight and was complete.
You buy a new phone when you need one, not when you want one.
Microsoft's Surface is the desktop replacement, not the iPad Pro.
Apple's Macs are an afterthought and usually behind the tech times. They employ the same Intel chips as the competition's computers, it's just that they're installed late and kept for far too long. Replacers are yearning for hot machines, and Apple doesn't deliver them.
Sure, Apple makes the best phone. (You can argue about this, but let's not.)
Sure, Apple has the best ecosystem. (Google's is close, but no cigar.)
Sure, Apple has the best designed products. (But not by much anymore.)
Sure, Apple has the best service. (By a long shot.)
But is everybody willing to pay for this?
No.
Meanwhile, the vaunted world's most valuable company has lost that position, hell, even Microsoft has superseded Apple in value, primarily because of innovation in the cloud, and in addition the Cupertino company lost a double digit percentage of its overall value.
Let this be a lesson to you. Nothing is forever. And never underestimate the power of a leader, and the power of the public. The public can change preferences on a whim. And then they oftentimes switch to a new individual, a new leader, a new record producer, like Max Martin. You're hot, and then you're not.
What made Steve Jobs so legendary was his ability to see where the market was going, what the public wanted, years before anybody else. And sure, not all his ideas were brand new, but the execution was superb. Anybody can have a good idea, but bringing it to attractive fruition? That's a whole 'nother thing.
And icons are not easily replaced. We've been waiting for a new Dylan for sixty years, but he has not shown up.
Where is the new John Lennon?
We've got very good, sometimes even great, but iconic?
That's rare.
Sure, Jony Ive is a top-tier designer, but he needs to be told what to do.
Tim Cook is incapable of that. Categorically. He's a logistics expert. It's like making the head of promotion the head of the label. Promotion is important, but signing and nurturing acts is a different skill, and the talent, the tracks, are the most important part of the enterprise. It's like having a world class factory with nothing to make.
And when you're on top, making change, you're excoriated.
And quite possibly crazy. Steve Jobs could be a bully, he had no time for manners. Elon Musk does not know there are rules, whether they be business or societal.
But it is these geniuses we yearn for, who change the world.
There's no one like this at Apple today.
The company faded once, it can happen again. There is no catalogue in tech, it's all what have you done for me lately. It's about retaining talent and taking risks. Amazon failed with the Fire phone and then came up with the juggernaut known as Alexa. Apple kept polishing its jewels until suddenly no one wanted them anymore.
Oh, that's not true.
How do you lose your fortune?
Very slowly, then all at once.
--
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--
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-TuneIn: http://tunein.com/lefsetz
-Apple: https://apple.co/2ndmpvp
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Thursday, 3 January 2019
Super Dave
I'd like to say he had the first cable series, but the truth is "It's Garry Shandling's Show" started a year earlier, in '86, it wasn't until '87 that the "Super Dave Osborne" show premiered. And now they're both dead.
I was thinking how nobody died over Christmas. Sure, Penny Marshall passed, but she was known to be sick, usually we're surprised, the deaths come from left field, like James Brown and George Michael. But then right after the New Year, a trifecta, they made it through the holidays and then they expired, Pegi Young, Daryl Dragon and Bob Einstein.
I have sympathy for Pegi. She gets divorced and then dies of cancer, a double whammy. Just when you think things can't get worse, they do. This is where I tell you to appreciate every moment, to go to the doctor, but nobody listens anyway. Everybody's young until they're old. And in our youth-obsessed culture, the pains and failures and thoughts of the aged are hidden. You wake up one day and you realize time has run out for you to achieve your fantasy. You are who you are. And odds are life is not gonna get better. Maybe you saved enough for retirement, maybe you didn't. Maybe you can afford your drugs, maybe you can't. But one thing you do is talk about family and entertainment, and to a great degree they're the same thing, the people on-screen we believe are our family.
Now Pegi lived in the shadow of Neil. And after Toni Tennille's book we thought less of the Captain. Turns out he could not be close. Funny, Toni's tome didn't attack Daryl, she just told her truth, and we had sympathy for her, because everybody's entitled to a little lovin', touchin', and squeezin', as Steve Perry put it.
And Tony and the Captain had hits. And at least the obits have noted Daryl's tenure with the Beach Boys, during their seventies comeback, from has-beens to hipsters. But... I don't think anybody goes to bed thinking about the Captain and Tennille.
But we do think about Super Dave and Marty Funkhouser.
Albert Brooks was the funniest man in Hollywood who never got the accolades until he played straight characters. It's almost like he missed his moment, that Steve Martin had his career. But Brooks was less obvious, more intellectual. Brooks assumed you were smart, that you got the jokes, so he went deeper. So if you're a fan of "Lost In America" or "Modern Romance" you testify about those films, the insights into the (upper) middle class mind.
But Super Dave played to the lowest common denominator, he was stupid, but you could always tell Bob Einstein was smart, it was a conundrum.
This was in the era when there were 57 channels and nothing on. Before cable was digital and you stole pay channels. When everybody had HBO, and some had Showtime, which was packaged with The Movie Channel.
Since it was on HBO, most people think "Dream On" was the first cable series. But it did not debut until 1990. Years after "Super Dave."
So there was a minimum of product and you dialed in this bizarre show obviously shot on the cheap in Canada with its fake accidents, but you couldn't stop watching, why?
It was Super Dave himself, Bob Einstein. The way he took it so seriously. He never let on that it was a joke. This was not SNL with characters laughing as they're reading, this was a bizarre set piece, a bottom of the barrel Andy Kaufman, but a lot more comprehensible.
But Andy died.
And now Bob has too.
So Bob was a low level guy in show business, not an insider's comic, but the son of a man with a career, Parkyakarkus, who went into the family business.
And then came "Curb Your Enthusiasm."
Marty Funkhouser was Super Dave, but better. He never broke character. He was the best friend you wanted to dump but couldn't, because he was so reliable, because you could depend upon him, even though at times you hated him and made fun of him.
Funkhouser was a fish out of water. He knew all these famous people, but he was a nobody in real life. Not that he knew this. He thought everybody liked him, he thought he was a member of the group, when the truth is he was tolerated.
Anything worth remembering takes a long time percolating, before it gets recognition. "Breaking Bad," which didn't break until it was on Netflix. "Seinfeld," which bumped around time slots.
And "Curb Your Enthusiasm."
Only superfans knew who Larry David was, that he was the essence of "Seinfeld," the viewpoint. And it wasn't until a few seasons in that "Curb"'s lines became part of the conversation. Of which there were many, but my favorite is when Larry's dad, Shelley Berman, says after the baseball game, when he puts his glasses on...IT'S A HOOKER!
And there's been a lot of notice paid in the last twenty four hours to Marty's joke in the "Seinfeld" reunion arc on "Curb"...
But that's not what I remember.
I remember the air going out of the room whenever Marty entered. The way he became sincerely incensed over minor trifles when Larry couldn't care less. The way he wanted people to be his friend, even though they really didn't want to.
And sure, the show is filled with iconic performances, like Susie's, like Larry's himself, but Marty was part of the fabric, you know he would always return, and when he did you'd get that sense of anticipation, that something would go wrong, that Marty would not get the joke, that he'd make everybody uncomfortable but never be ostracized.
So the show will never be the same.
Then again, things rarely are. It's all about moments in time. And you'd better enjoy the ones you've got, because they are all you're getting.
But it's performances like those of Bob Einstein/Super Dave/Marty Funkhouser that intrigue us, that are signposts in our lives, because we know people like this, we thought we were the only ones, but now, through the magic of Larry David's concepts and Bob Einstein's improvisations, we know we are not alone.
So, when a President dies, an icon, it's all of our pain and shock.
But it's the leaders of the secret club who get to us. The ones we have a personal relationship with even though they don't know it. We open our browser, we lift up our phone, and we find they're gone from our life.
But never forgotten.
That's show business, that's life. One wink, one small role, can burn your identity into the brains of viewers.
Bob Einstein was not everywhere...
But he's right there in our brains, never to be forgotten.
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I was thinking how nobody died over Christmas. Sure, Penny Marshall passed, but she was known to be sick, usually we're surprised, the deaths come from left field, like James Brown and George Michael. But then right after the New Year, a trifecta, they made it through the holidays and then they expired, Pegi Young, Daryl Dragon and Bob Einstein.
I have sympathy for Pegi. She gets divorced and then dies of cancer, a double whammy. Just when you think things can't get worse, they do. This is where I tell you to appreciate every moment, to go to the doctor, but nobody listens anyway. Everybody's young until they're old. And in our youth-obsessed culture, the pains and failures and thoughts of the aged are hidden. You wake up one day and you realize time has run out for you to achieve your fantasy. You are who you are. And odds are life is not gonna get better. Maybe you saved enough for retirement, maybe you didn't. Maybe you can afford your drugs, maybe you can't. But one thing you do is talk about family and entertainment, and to a great degree they're the same thing, the people on-screen we believe are our family.
Now Pegi lived in the shadow of Neil. And after Toni Tennille's book we thought less of the Captain. Turns out he could not be close. Funny, Toni's tome didn't attack Daryl, she just told her truth, and we had sympathy for her, because everybody's entitled to a little lovin', touchin', and squeezin', as Steve Perry put it.
And Tony and the Captain had hits. And at least the obits have noted Daryl's tenure with the Beach Boys, during their seventies comeback, from has-beens to hipsters. But... I don't think anybody goes to bed thinking about the Captain and Tennille.
But we do think about Super Dave and Marty Funkhouser.
Albert Brooks was the funniest man in Hollywood who never got the accolades until he played straight characters. It's almost like he missed his moment, that Steve Martin had his career. But Brooks was less obvious, more intellectual. Brooks assumed you were smart, that you got the jokes, so he went deeper. So if you're a fan of "Lost In America" or "Modern Romance" you testify about those films, the insights into the (upper) middle class mind.
But Super Dave played to the lowest common denominator, he was stupid, but you could always tell Bob Einstein was smart, it was a conundrum.
This was in the era when there were 57 channels and nothing on. Before cable was digital and you stole pay channels. When everybody had HBO, and some had Showtime, which was packaged with The Movie Channel.
Since it was on HBO, most people think "Dream On" was the first cable series. But it did not debut until 1990. Years after "Super Dave."
So there was a minimum of product and you dialed in this bizarre show obviously shot on the cheap in Canada with its fake accidents, but you couldn't stop watching, why?
It was Super Dave himself, Bob Einstein. The way he took it so seriously. He never let on that it was a joke. This was not SNL with characters laughing as they're reading, this was a bizarre set piece, a bottom of the barrel Andy Kaufman, but a lot more comprehensible.
But Andy died.
And now Bob has too.
So Bob was a low level guy in show business, not an insider's comic, but the son of a man with a career, Parkyakarkus, who went into the family business.
And then came "Curb Your Enthusiasm."
Marty Funkhouser was Super Dave, but better. He never broke character. He was the best friend you wanted to dump but couldn't, because he was so reliable, because you could depend upon him, even though at times you hated him and made fun of him.
Funkhouser was a fish out of water. He knew all these famous people, but he was a nobody in real life. Not that he knew this. He thought everybody liked him, he thought he was a member of the group, when the truth is he was tolerated.
Anything worth remembering takes a long time percolating, before it gets recognition. "Breaking Bad," which didn't break until it was on Netflix. "Seinfeld," which bumped around time slots.
And "Curb Your Enthusiasm."
Only superfans knew who Larry David was, that he was the essence of "Seinfeld," the viewpoint. And it wasn't until a few seasons in that "Curb"'s lines became part of the conversation. Of which there were many, but my favorite is when Larry's dad, Shelley Berman, says after the baseball game, when he puts his glasses on...IT'S A HOOKER!
And there's been a lot of notice paid in the last twenty four hours to Marty's joke in the "Seinfeld" reunion arc on "Curb"...
But that's not what I remember.
I remember the air going out of the room whenever Marty entered. The way he became sincerely incensed over minor trifles when Larry couldn't care less. The way he wanted people to be his friend, even though they really didn't want to.
And sure, the show is filled with iconic performances, like Susie's, like Larry's himself, but Marty was part of the fabric, you know he would always return, and when he did you'd get that sense of anticipation, that something would go wrong, that Marty would not get the joke, that he'd make everybody uncomfortable but never be ostracized.
So the show will never be the same.
Then again, things rarely are. It's all about moments in time. And you'd better enjoy the ones you've got, because they are all you're getting.
But it's performances like those of Bob Einstein/Super Dave/Marty Funkhouser that intrigue us, that are signposts in our lives, because we know people like this, we thought we were the only ones, but now, through the magic of Larry David's concepts and Bob Einstein's improvisations, we know we are not alone.
So, when a President dies, an icon, it's all of our pain and shock.
But it's the leaders of the secret club who get to us. The ones we have a personal relationship with even though they don't know it. We open our browser, we lift up our phone, and we find they're gone from our life.
But never forgotten.
That's show business, that's life. One wink, one small role, can burn your identity into the brains of viewers.
Bob Einstein was not everywhere...
But he's right there in our brains, never to be forgotten.
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BLACKPINK
Musical Power Rangers.
In case you missed the memo, BLACKPINK is the buzz of Coachella. That's right, people are more interested in a K-Pop band that's never played in America than the ubiquitous headliners.
Then again, the audience owns BLACKPINK, whereas the rest of the acts are playing to the media.
I know, it makes no sense, girls singing in Korean enticing a country.
But this is the Lou Pearlman paradigm all over again. Innovation always comes from outside, disruption always comes from outside, while major American labels were busy finding rappers with a long history of legal entanglements and features on hit performers' tracks, YG Entertainment went the other way, it asked what the AUDIENCE wanted!
You can start with the music, not that that's the hook, but the tracks are an amalgamation of electronics and rap and they're bouncy and you can dance to them and they'd fit right in at a Bar Mitzvah or Sweet Sixteen. That's right, half of what's popular, if not more, is not ready for prime time consumption. The lyrics have to be bleeped, everybody's trying to appear trashier and more dangerous than their competitors, both black and white, it's like the WWE, and that cartoon has an audience, but it doesn't reach everybody.
And neither does BLACKPINK. But if you go down the rabbit hole with them...
The videos are flashy and rewatchable. You can see that the girls are directed and have little input, but they're so cute you watch them anyway, both boys and girls, boys for the crush, girls for instruction, BLACKPINK is a fantasy.
And since the act lives on YouTube, you can click "Closed Caption" and see what they're really singing about, but does it really matter? Girls picked from obscurity to live a fabulous life.
Kinda like 1D.
Then again, that musical paradigm also wasn't generated by the majors. Sure, the two Simons were not total left-fielders, but Fuller created the singing competition show and Cowell put together five good-looking guys who triumphed, sold out stadiums, not because of radio but because of fanaticism online.
Used to be you got on radio, did TV, got the media involved, now that's all irrelevant. Assuming you've got traction, and that's not easy to get, word of mouth builds you online. You live on YouTube and social media. Maybe Spotify. It's a club the rest of the world is clueless as to, and the fans like this.
And on one hand, it's juvenile.
On the other, juvenile has been triumphing in American music for a decade. Smart is out, stupid and lawbreaking is in. It's all lowest common denominator, made by people who are escaping minimum wage jobs. And, the audience is following them. That's America, hedonistic and ignorant, as they feel the brunt of the policies of the man. Ever notice that the educated don't go into music? Why? There's no place for them!
But the game is fascinating because of the holes, the blind spots of the titans who think they know.
It's not only BLACKPINK, but BTS. We heard about K-Pop for years and did nothing, kinda like people denying the future of electric cars. It's coming, boy.
Because the Koreans built a better mousetrap. They realized it was pure entertainment, there were no big statements involved, although the girls do take a stand now and again.
You can invest in the personalities. It's like a board game come to life.
But it's not pushing the envelope of music.
Yet, the tunes are much more listenable than most of the Spotify Top 50 tripe.
So, Lou Pearlman revolutionized music two decades ago with his boy bands. But what made Pearlman's impact so great was Max Martin, who was more talented than the so-called heroes of the hit parade, he knew what a hit song was. And I won't say that K-Pop has found its Martin, but it is distilling today's sounds in a more palatable way than the Americans.
Like every disruption, this was hiding in plain sight. It wasn't like we were unaware of K-Pop, we just didn't believe it could happen here.
But it did, because of insight and preparation and experience and practice. It's the outgrowth of PSY. It's clever. It's going to change the business. There is money in K-Pop and opportunity in playing to everybody as opposed to the niche. Nobody hates K-Pop other than the most dyed-in-the-wool rockers, who've been irrelevant since the turn of the century, thinking that their judgment still applies.
But it doesn't.
Once again, isn't it interesting that a promoter is leading the way, as opposed to radio and labels. This is a good thing, evidence of health and growth, but when these fans grow up, what will they want to listen to?
THAT IS THE QUESTION!
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--
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In case you missed the memo, BLACKPINK is the buzz of Coachella. That's right, people are more interested in a K-Pop band that's never played in America than the ubiquitous headliners.
Then again, the audience owns BLACKPINK, whereas the rest of the acts are playing to the media.
I know, it makes no sense, girls singing in Korean enticing a country.
But this is the Lou Pearlman paradigm all over again. Innovation always comes from outside, disruption always comes from outside, while major American labels were busy finding rappers with a long history of legal entanglements and features on hit performers' tracks, YG Entertainment went the other way, it asked what the AUDIENCE wanted!
You can start with the music, not that that's the hook, but the tracks are an amalgamation of electronics and rap and they're bouncy and you can dance to them and they'd fit right in at a Bar Mitzvah or Sweet Sixteen. That's right, half of what's popular, if not more, is not ready for prime time consumption. The lyrics have to be bleeped, everybody's trying to appear trashier and more dangerous than their competitors, both black and white, it's like the WWE, and that cartoon has an audience, but it doesn't reach everybody.
And neither does BLACKPINK. But if you go down the rabbit hole with them...
The videos are flashy and rewatchable. You can see that the girls are directed and have little input, but they're so cute you watch them anyway, both boys and girls, boys for the crush, girls for instruction, BLACKPINK is a fantasy.
And since the act lives on YouTube, you can click "Closed Caption" and see what they're really singing about, but does it really matter? Girls picked from obscurity to live a fabulous life.
Kinda like 1D.
Then again, that musical paradigm also wasn't generated by the majors. Sure, the two Simons were not total left-fielders, but Fuller created the singing competition show and Cowell put together five good-looking guys who triumphed, sold out stadiums, not because of radio but because of fanaticism online.
Used to be you got on radio, did TV, got the media involved, now that's all irrelevant. Assuming you've got traction, and that's not easy to get, word of mouth builds you online. You live on YouTube and social media. Maybe Spotify. It's a club the rest of the world is clueless as to, and the fans like this.
And on one hand, it's juvenile.
On the other, juvenile has been triumphing in American music for a decade. Smart is out, stupid and lawbreaking is in. It's all lowest common denominator, made by people who are escaping minimum wage jobs. And, the audience is following them. That's America, hedonistic and ignorant, as they feel the brunt of the policies of the man. Ever notice that the educated don't go into music? Why? There's no place for them!
But the game is fascinating because of the holes, the blind spots of the titans who think they know.
It's not only BLACKPINK, but BTS. We heard about K-Pop for years and did nothing, kinda like people denying the future of electric cars. It's coming, boy.
Because the Koreans built a better mousetrap. They realized it was pure entertainment, there were no big statements involved, although the girls do take a stand now and again.
You can invest in the personalities. It's like a board game come to life.
But it's not pushing the envelope of music.
Yet, the tunes are much more listenable than most of the Spotify Top 50 tripe.
So, Lou Pearlman revolutionized music two decades ago with his boy bands. But what made Pearlman's impact so great was Max Martin, who was more talented than the so-called heroes of the hit parade, he knew what a hit song was. And I won't say that K-Pop has found its Martin, but it is distilling today's sounds in a more palatable way than the Americans.
Like every disruption, this was hiding in plain sight. It wasn't like we were unaware of K-Pop, we just didn't believe it could happen here.
But it did, because of insight and preparation and experience and practice. It's the outgrowth of PSY. It's clever. It's going to change the business. There is money in K-Pop and opportunity in playing to everybody as opposed to the niche. Nobody hates K-Pop other than the most dyed-in-the-wool rockers, who've been irrelevant since the turn of the century, thinking that their judgment still applies.
But it doesn't.
Once again, isn't it interesting that a promoter is leading the way, as opposed to radio and labels. This is a good thing, evidence of health and growth, but when these fans grow up, what will they want to listen to?
THAT IS THE QUESTION!
--
Visit the archive: http://lefsetz.com/wordpress/
--
Listen to the podcast:
-TuneIn: http://tunein.com/lefsetz
-Apple: https://apple.co/2ndmpvp
--
http://www.twitter.com/lefsetz
--
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Coachella Lineup
"And sooner or later
Everybody's kingdom must end"
"The King Must Die"
Elton John
It's not the boomers' Coachella anymore, nor the Gen-X'ers. I thought the transition would happen when America's #1 festival booked Justin Bieber. But now, that old man has been passed over and they've gone straight to Ariana Grande. Is this the music business we grew up with?
No!
Actually, the Coachella lineup is an extremely accurate picture of what's happening in music today, when it's less about gravitas than social media presence, when the album is secondary to the single, when it's not about history but today.
Friday's headliner choice of Janelle Monae reminds me of Michael Jackson breaking the color line at MTV. Pittman said it was an AOR station, Walter Yetnikoff challenged that and suddenly MTV went urban and it became about video production more than songs.
As for the 1975, they've been around for a while, but have only become hot in America with their latest album. DJ Snake and Diplo are relative oldsters on this bill, having had hits a few years back. And it's true, Kacey Musgraves jumps genres and Juice WRLD just made it yesterday and the undercard...only their agents and a small coterie of Gen-Z fans might know them.
So, this is the evolution of festivals, while competitors hunger for legendary superstars, overpaying them for insurance, Coachella has tossed history and entered the present, where a festival is more about the attendees than those on stage anyway. Hell, that's the modern generation, even though Sly Stone nailed it decades back. Everybody is a star. You get cred by going to the desert, and if you don't, you've got FOMO and are labeled a pariah. It's about outfits and after-parties and selfies and Instagramming... If they banned mobile phones, attendance would plunge.
As for Saturday, when did Tame Impala become a headliner? Tony Wilson loved them over a decade ago, but I didn't notice that much increased traction lately. Could Tame Impala headline Lollapalooza? Then again, is Lollapalooza headliner-proof? But not Bonnaroo. Yup, it comes down to the hang. And it turns out people don't want to camp in the humidity and mud. That's 2019, the user experience, Steve Jobs had that right.
And once again, there's a woman of color on Saturday, Solange. But, being politically correct, going pop, killed FYF Fest. But Coachella is bulletproof...
For a while.
And sure, Weezer and Aphex Twin are alta kachers, but Weezer had that Toto remake and...
Billie Eilish is hot today, and Bassnectar is suddenly hot again, and I'm a fan of Christine and the Queens...
As for Sunday, they've got Zedd... Meanwhile, competing festivals are booking the comeback of Swedish House Mafia.
And the dirty little secret is Coachella has always been an EDM festival, it's the Sahara Tent that is the pulse of the weekend. But, where are the other blue chip DJs?
As for MTV... It took a while, but then the station cratered. Granted, it was killed by the internet, but it lost touch before that. Then again, unlike MTV in the nineties, Coachella is covering all bases with this bill.
But...
Is this what passes for revolution in 2019?
Granted, Coachella started a revolution, but had to sell to AEG to survive.
So where are we going? Is this bill evidence of a healthy music business or just the opposite? Too few genuine stars and a bunch of of the moment performers?
Music ain't baseball, there's no ongoing tradition, acts come and go, as do genres.
And it's not football either, which is a coaches game.
And headliners used to be powerhouses, known by everybody, with cultural impact, and you've got to give Childish Gambino that, but Ariana Grande? Is it any different from booking Rihanna? Is that how far we've fallen, we curate by the charts as opposed to the music?
So in one fell swoop, Coachella has eliminated the past.
Oh, the festival started making inroads last year with Beyonce's appearance, which has become legendary despite so few seeing it, why isn't it on Netflix, but this year they've thrown the baby out with the bathwater. Today, they've disrupted themselves, before others disrupt them.
That's right, Coachella was on a bad path. Too many reunions of old acts few cared about. It's almost as if Paul Tollett read Clayton Christensen's legendary "Innovator's Dilemma"... You keep serving your hard core audience and then one day a competitor owns everybody else and is bigger. Then again, the disruption starts off inferior and cheap. One can argue the 2019 Coachella lineup is inferior, but it's definitely not cheap.
So, you've got to give credit to the Goldenvoice team. They made a move. They didn't rest on their laurels, they reinvented Coachella. It was not an evolution, it was a long time in coming, but it happened.
Now the question becomes whether the audience is with them.
Is today's music as important to today's audience as classic rock and its derivatives were to boomers and Gen-X'ers?
I doubt it. Back then, music was everything, now it's just a piece of the pie.
Even worse, the business is mature. Run by corporations. The barrier to entry looks low, but the truth is it's not that different from the FANG players, i.e. Facebook, Apple, Netflix and Google. You can start independently, but if you don't sell out, good luck. Snapchat was imitated by Instagram probably to its death and Emporium sold out to Live Nation like all those entities hoovered up by FANG. Music is fluid, but the business?
So one asks where the new excitement will come from.
Actually, there are a ton of acts with fan bases that don't fit the Coachella paradigm at all, just pick up "Relix" and see. Musically interesting, but business..?
There are acts doing their own festivals, but...
To a great degree it all looks like been there, done that. You collaborate with a known star, your story is pasted all over social media and you sell your services to one of the big corporations. It's easy to despise it just like so many despise D.C., it just doesn't resonate with them anymore.
Meanwhile, the Rolling Stones still play stadiums, and the Eagles too. And it's not like they haven't been around, but people still yearn for the songs.
But Coachella no longer yearns for their audience.
"The king is dead, the king is dead
Long live the king"
--
Visit the archive: http://lefsetz.com/wordpress/
--
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-TuneIn: http://tunein.com/lefsetz
-Apple: https://apple.co/2ndmpvp
--
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--
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Everybody's kingdom must end"
"The King Must Die"
Elton John
It's not the boomers' Coachella anymore, nor the Gen-X'ers. I thought the transition would happen when America's #1 festival booked Justin Bieber. But now, that old man has been passed over and they've gone straight to Ariana Grande. Is this the music business we grew up with?
No!
Actually, the Coachella lineup is an extremely accurate picture of what's happening in music today, when it's less about gravitas than social media presence, when the album is secondary to the single, when it's not about history but today.
Friday's headliner choice of Janelle Monae reminds me of Michael Jackson breaking the color line at MTV. Pittman said it was an AOR station, Walter Yetnikoff challenged that and suddenly MTV went urban and it became about video production more than songs.
As for the 1975, they've been around for a while, but have only become hot in America with their latest album. DJ Snake and Diplo are relative oldsters on this bill, having had hits a few years back. And it's true, Kacey Musgraves jumps genres and Juice WRLD just made it yesterday and the undercard...only their agents and a small coterie of Gen-Z fans might know them.
So, this is the evolution of festivals, while competitors hunger for legendary superstars, overpaying them for insurance, Coachella has tossed history and entered the present, where a festival is more about the attendees than those on stage anyway. Hell, that's the modern generation, even though Sly Stone nailed it decades back. Everybody is a star. You get cred by going to the desert, and if you don't, you've got FOMO and are labeled a pariah. It's about outfits and after-parties and selfies and Instagramming... If they banned mobile phones, attendance would plunge.
As for Saturday, when did Tame Impala become a headliner? Tony Wilson loved them over a decade ago, but I didn't notice that much increased traction lately. Could Tame Impala headline Lollapalooza? Then again, is Lollapalooza headliner-proof? But not Bonnaroo. Yup, it comes down to the hang. And it turns out people don't want to camp in the humidity and mud. That's 2019, the user experience, Steve Jobs had that right.
And once again, there's a woman of color on Saturday, Solange. But, being politically correct, going pop, killed FYF Fest. But Coachella is bulletproof...
For a while.
And sure, Weezer and Aphex Twin are alta kachers, but Weezer had that Toto remake and...
Billie Eilish is hot today, and Bassnectar is suddenly hot again, and I'm a fan of Christine and the Queens...
As for Sunday, they've got Zedd... Meanwhile, competing festivals are booking the comeback of Swedish House Mafia.
And the dirty little secret is Coachella has always been an EDM festival, it's the Sahara Tent that is the pulse of the weekend. But, where are the other blue chip DJs?
As for MTV... It took a while, but then the station cratered. Granted, it was killed by the internet, but it lost touch before that. Then again, unlike MTV in the nineties, Coachella is covering all bases with this bill.
But...
Is this what passes for revolution in 2019?
Granted, Coachella started a revolution, but had to sell to AEG to survive.
So where are we going? Is this bill evidence of a healthy music business or just the opposite? Too few genuine stars and a bunch of of the moment performers?
Music ain't baseball, there's no ongoing tradition, acts come and go, as do genres.
And it's not football either, which is a coaches game.
And headliners used to be powerhouses, known by everybody, with cultural impact, and you've got to give Childish Gambino that, but Ariana Grande? Is it any different from booking Rihanna? Is that how far we've fallen, we curate by the charts as opposed to the music?
So in one fell swoop, Coachella has eliminated the past.
Oh, the festival started making inroads last year with Beyonce's appearance, which has become legendary despite so few seeing it, why isn't it on Netflix, but this year they've thrown the baby out with the bathwater. Today, they've disrupted themselves, before others disrupt them.
That's right, Coachella was on a bad path. Too many reunions of old acts few cared about. It's almost as if Paul Tollett read Clayton Christensen's legendary "Innovator's Dilemma"... You keep serving your hard core audience and then one day a competitor owns everybody else and is bigger. Then again, the disruption starts off inferior and cheap. One can argue the 2019 Coachella lineup is inferior, but it's definitely not cheap.
So, you've got to give credit to the Goldenvoice team. They made a move. They didn't rest on their laurels, they reinvented Coachella. It was not an evolution, it was a long time in coming, but it happened.
Now the question becomes whether the audience is with them.
Is today's music as important to today's audience as classic rock and its derivatives were to boomers and Gen-X'ers?
I doubt it. Back then, music was everything, now it's just a piece of the pie.
Even worse, the business is mature. Run by corporations. The barrier to entry looks low, but the truth is it's not that different from the FANG players, i.e. Facebook, Apple, Netflix and Google. You can start independently, but if you don't sell out, good luck. Snapchat was imitated by Instagram probably to its death and Emporium sold out to Live Nation like all those entities hoovered up by FANG. Music is fluid, but the business?
So one asks where the new excitement will come from.
Actually, there are a ton of acts with fan bases that don't fit the Coachella paradigm at all, just pick up "Relix" and see. Musically interesting, but business..?
There are acts doing their own festivals, but...
To a great degree it all looks like been there, done that. You collaborate with a known star, your story is pasted all over social media and you sell your services to one of the big corporations. It's easy to despise it just like so many despise D.C., it just doesn't resonate with them anymore.
Meanwhile, the Rolling Stones still play stadiums, and the Eagles too. And it's not like they haven't been around, but people still yearn for the songs.
But Coachella no longer yearns for their audience.
"The king is dead, the king is dead
Long live the king"
--
Visit the archive: http://lefsetz.com/wordpress/
--
Listen to the podcast:
-TuneIn: http://tunein.com/lefsetz
-Apple: https://apple.co/2ndmpvp
--
http://www.twitter.com/lefsetz
--
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Monday, 31 December 2018
2019
Will be a year of transition. Expect the chaos to continue to rule. But by the end of 2019 the future will start coming into focus.
2018 was the year of streaming. Yes, Spotify launched in the U.S. nearly a decade ago, and YouTube before that, but it took that long for the public to catch up with the new paradigm, never mind the business. Remember how long it took CDs to become the standard? At first they were overpriced and rare, then AOL was giving them away and there was only one good track on a disc and Napster happened. But do not expect disruption of streaming. Streaming represents on demand, once you've reached it there is nothing after. Furthermore, in the future, we will own less and less, millennials live in smaller places, if you're all about ownership you're a Luddite left behind, did you read Dan Neil's piece Saturday in the WSJ? He said not to buy an internal combustion engine automobile now because it will be worth nothing in five years. Argue with me, that's fine, but Neil is the automotive guru and he's behind a paywall, otherwise I'd give you the link. That's another thing 2019 will continue to bring, haves and have-nots online. If you're not willing to pay, you're going to be left behind.
Terrestrial music radio will continue to fade in importance. It won't be terminal this coming year, but in five it will be. Major labels are preparing by cozying up to streaming services, relationships and a continuous stream of product are everything. Then again, it's easier than ever to find out whether a track is sticking or not. But expect continued consolidation on the major label front, as in they will control an ever-smaller piece of the pie. They're signing little, because of the opportunity cost and lack of demand for genres other than hip-hop, they're like movie studios making superhero movies who were disrupted by...Netflix. There's a giant opportunity here, the barrier to entry is so low, expect the vacuum to be filled by new players. Then again, there isn't that much money in music, relatively speaking, and the odds of success are low, which is why big spenders are staying out. But expect millennials to make inroads in music production. The label gives you a bad deal and owns the product and provides less than ever before and chances are they don't want to sign you anyway. Now is when majors should be investing, altering their model for the future, but they are not. They should have 50/50 deals, ownership should revert to creators, especially after recoupment. By avoiding change labels set themselves up for disruption. If you're not inventing, you're losing.
But the demise of the power of the majors will not be evident in 2019. Because radio still means something and too many acts want a check, but watch this space.
Also, 2019 will see the end of hip-hop dominance. It will take at least another six months for those in alternative formats to stop bitching about streaming numbers and get their act together. There are many ways to make money in music other than with recordings. Be thankful recording is cheap and distribution is nearly free, at least you can play! But the story of hip-hop embracing the internet and dominating is long in the tooth. Now we're at streaming and everyone knows the internet is where music lives. So, other genres will get a push. First and foremost from the audience, which is going to see these acts live, and ultimately the streaming services themselves, which will be embarrassed by the focus on hip-hop and see money in emphasizing other genres.
Once again, if you're an anti-streaming, physical product person, not only will the revolution pass you by, you're hindering its furtherance. CDs are not the only thing you can sell at a gig, and no one's got a player anyway. Think souvenir, not music.
But young acts that embrace streaming but not beats will make inroads in 2019, and word will spread about them. This is a good thing. As for old acts, embrace the present or die.
As for touring, the story of 2019 will be the financial recession. Expect some soft numbers in touring as a result of people not having enough money. The stars will have no problem selling tickets, all others..? And those who put tickets on sale early will dominate. It's anti-fan, but get your show up soon or be left out later, people will only have so much cash.
Also, MTV died nearly two decades ago, why acts see it necessary to perform their shows just like the video is a head-scratcher. If your career is based on touring, spice up the show, change set lists, have nothing on hard drive. Don't say the audience expects it, that's tripe. The audience wants a unique experience that no one else is privy to. Live is about tangible, real. Hard drives and autotune and other sweeteners are about fake. Sure, phenoms can get away with it, but the tide will be turning, more people will see music as the core, the penumbra will be irrelevant, the audience will start to turn on TMZ shenanigans. Sure, you want a steady pipeline between act and fan, a flow of information, but if you're creating non-musical news on a regular basis the joke will be on you.
Music is far ahead of other entertainment genres. Distribution has been figured out. But the last couple of years have been about a steady flow of new acts the press and the industry cannot keep up with. This is the true internet disruption, the plethora of acts, more than Napster/Spotify. Now that everybody can play, who deserves attention, how is the word spread, what are the metrics that determine success?
Certainly the "Billboard" chart does not, it's an anachronism. Like Nielsen publishing TV ratings without Netflix. But a new chart would not be about the singular number one, but the group of acts deserving attention. The new playlist will be the best of all genres. We get it, we get it, hip-hop is streamed most, but by just focusing on the most in that genre, not only are we leaving other music out, but their fans too, as I stated above.
Not that hip-hop will die and rock will revive.
Hip-hop is innovative, rock is too derivative.
Rock can only have a renaissance when it features great vocalists with something to say. We're waiting for someone to fill the mass rock hole, and it ain't Wilco and Greta Van Fleet is only a harbinger of things to come. We let rock slide for so long, that vocal fans trumpet second-rate material and non-fans ignore it.
Mass will continue to be important.
But mass is relative.
If you can make a living on the action provided by a few thousand streams, more power to you.
But really we're interested in those with millions of streams, tens of millions of streams, that demonstrates demand. And right now, a good number of non-hip-hop acts have those numbers, but most people are unaware of these tracks, while the media too often focuses on those who few want to listen to.
It is a business. It's not a museum. Traction, response and momentum are important.
But the great thing about music is although those are difficult to achieve, anybody can do it. You don't need a degree from Yale, or Berklee, you don't have to know how to play that well, you just need inspiration.
We've got a whole world waiting for your inspiration. But we've got so many other options, your inspiration will be ignored if it's not truly great. But 2019 will be the year other genres get recognition and traction.
But there will not be a new chart, there will not be clarity until 2020.
The music industry has future shock. As do old fans. But youngsters are figuring it out, and they will lead us out of the darkness. Right now it's like looking through steel wool, but in time the view will get clearer, the next paradigm will come into focus.
And not a moment too soon.
2018 was the year of streaming. Yes, Spotify launched in the U.S. nearly a decade ago, and YouTube before that, but it took that long for the public to catch up with the new paradigm, never mind the business. Remember how long it took CDs to become the standard? At first they were overpriced and rare, then AOL was giving them away and there was only one good track on a disc and Napster happened. But do not expect disruption of streaming. Streaming represents on demand, once you've reached it there is nothing after. Furthermore, in the future, we will own less and less, millennials live in smaller places, if you're all about ownership you're a Luddite left behind, did you read Dan Neil's piece Saturday in the WSJ? He said not to buy an internal combustion engine automobile now because it will be worth nothing in five years. Argue with me, that's fine, but Neil is the automotive guru and he's behind a paywall, otherwise I'd give you the link. That's another thing 2019 will continue to bring, haves and have-nots online. If you're not willing to pay, you're going to be left behind.
Terrestrial music radio will continue to fade in importance. It won't be terminal this coming year, but in five it will be. Major labels are preparing by cozying up to streaming services, relationships and a continuous stream of product are everything. Then again, it's easier than ever to find out whether a track is sticking or not. But expect continued consolidation on the major label front, as in they will control an ever-smaller piece of the pie. They're signing little, because of the opportunity cost and lack of demand for genres other than hip-hop, they're like movie studios making superhero movies who were disrupted by...Netflix. There's a giant opportunity here, the barrier to entry is so low, expect the vacuum to be filled by new players. Then again, there isn't that much money in music, relatively speaking, and the odds of success are low, which is why big spenders are staying out. But expect millennials to make inroads in music production. The label gives you a bad deal and owns the product and provides less than ever before and chances are they don't want to sign you anyway. Now is when majors should be investing, altering their model for the future, but they are not. They should have 50/50 deals, ownership should revert to creators, especially after recoupment. By avoiding change labels set themselves up for disruption. If you're not inventing, you're losing.
But the demise of the power of the majors will not be evident in 2019. Because radio still means something and too many acts want a check, but watch this space.
Also, 2019 will see the end of hip-hop dominance. It will take at least another six months for those in alternative formats to stop bitching about streaming numbers and get their act together. There are many ways to make money in music other than with recordings. Be thankful recording is cheap and distribution is nearly free, at least you can play! But the story of hip-hop embracing the internet and dominating is long in the tooth. Now we're at streaming and everyone knows the internet is where music lives. So, other genres will get a push. First and foremost from the audience, which is going to see these acts live, and ultimately the streaming services themselves, which will be embarrassed by the focus on hip-hop and see money in emphasizing other genres.
Once again, if you're an anti-streaming, physical product person, not only will the revolution pass you by, you're hindering its furtherance. CDs are not the only thing you can sell at a gig, and no one's got a player anyway. Think souvenir, not music.
But young acts that embrace streaming but not beats will make inroads in 2019, and word will spread about them. This is a good thing. As for old acts, embrace the present or die.
As for touring, the story of 2019 will be the financial recession. Expect some soft numbers in touring as a result of people not having enough money. The stars will have no problem selling tickets, all others..? And those who put tickets on sale early will dominate. It's anti-fan, but get your show up soon or be left out later, people will only have so much cash.
Also, MTV died nearly two decades ago, why acts see it necessary to perform their shows just like the video is a head-scratcher. If your career is based on touring, spice up the show, change set lists, have nothing on hard drive. Don't say the audience expects it, that's tripe. The audience wants a unique experience that no one else is privy to. Live is about tangible, real. Hard drives and autotune and other sweeteners are about fake. Sure, phenoms can get away with it, but the tide will be turning, more people will see music as the core, the penumbra will be irrelevant, the audience will start to turn on TMZ shenanigans. Sure, you want a steady pipeline between act and fan, a flow of information, but if you're creating non-musical news on a regular basis the joke will be on you.
Music is far ahead of other entertainment genres. Distribution has been figured out. But the last couple of years have been about a steady flow of new acts the press and the industry cannot keep up with. This is the true internet disruption, the plethora of acts, more than Napster/Spotify. Now that everybody can play, who deserves attention, how is the word spread, what are the metrics that determine success?
Certainly the "Billboard" chart does not, it's an anachronism. Like Nielsen publishing TV ratings without Netflix. But a new chart would not be about the singular number one, but the group of acts deserving attention. The new playlist will be the best of all genres. We get it, we get it, hip-hop is streamed most, but by just focusing on the most in that genre, not only are we leaving other music out, but their fans too, as I stated above.
Not that hip-hop will die and rock will revive.
Hip-hop is innovative, rock is too derivative.
Rock can only have a renaissance when it features great vocalists with something to say. We're waiting for someone to fill the mass rock hole, and it ain't Wilco and Greta Van Fleet is only a harbinger of things to come. We let rock slide for so long, that vocal fans trumpet second-rate material and non-fans ignore it.
Mass will continue to be important.
But mass is relative.
If you can make a living on the action provided by a few thousand streams, more power to you.
But really we're interested in those with millions of streams, tens of millions of streams, that demonstrates demand. And right now, a good number of non-hip-hop acts have those numbers, but most people are unaware of these tracks, while the media too often focuses on those who few want to listen to.
It is a business. It's not a museum. Traction, response and momentum are important.
But the great thing about music is although those are difficult to achieve, anybody can do it. You don't need a degree from Yale, or Berklee, you don't have to know how to play that well, you just need inspiration.
We've got a whole world waiting for your inspiration. But we've got so many other options, your inspiration will be ignored if it's not truly great. But 2019 will be the year other genres get recognition and traction.
But there will not be a new chart, there will not be clarity until 2020.
The music industry has future shock. As do old fans. But youngsters are figuring it out, and they will lead us out of the darkness. Right now it's like looking through steel wool, but in time the view will get clearer, the next paradigm will come into focus.
And not a moment too soon.
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