The Elizabeth Holmes Conviction

This is a victory for the little guy.

You see there are two tiers of justice in America, one for the rich and one for the poor. The rich skate while the poor plea bargain and go to jail.

And everybody knows it.

It's not like this paradigm has been hidden. That's what the O.J. Simpson trial was all about. Forget whether he did it, the Black man has been treated unfairly by the justice system, and Simpson's acquittal was pushback.

But both of them were guilty.

And O.J. is about race as opposed to money. He had the best defense money could buy. Which ran circles around the prosecution. Hell, Elizabeth Holmes had the best defense money could buy and she didn't even have to pay for it! Yes, an insurance policy delivered her defense. Does your employer have such a policy for you? I highly doubt it.

Now if you read all the press, the analysis has been what the effect of Holmes's conviction will have on behavior in the tech world, in Silicon Valley, BUT THAT'S NOT THE POINT! That just demonstrates the myopic elitism that has people voting for Trump. Do you know what it means to be a member of the underclass today? And just about every American is a member of such group. And it's not only about money, it's about power, it's about being in control of your own destiny. It's been disheartening.

Let's see, the banks blow up the economy and no one goes to jail. But it gets even worse, these same banks are rescued by the government by one of their own on the inside, Timothy Geithner. It'd be like having a member of the gang as judge when you come up for trial. Imagine that!

And it wasn't only 2008, it was Covid too. If you were a member of the underclass you had to go to work, expose yourself to Covid, and this was before vaccines were available, Worst offenders? Meat-packing plants and Amazon warehouses. Which paid poorly for work done under heinous conditions by people who couldn't afford to quit. Meanwhile, those with a desk job could work safely from home, and while the government helped out some of the underclass financially, that paled in comparison to all the bread made by the truly rich. Imagine that, profiting from a disaster! But it's not only Covid, but Afghanistan, the rest of the Middle East wars. Forget whether we won or lost, the truth is the contractors made a fortune. But building infrastructure overseas is not as sexy as TikTok, so almost no one one knows. And if you think these contracts are open, fair bids, you also think American executives never bribe foreign officials to smooth business operations in their countries. Hell, the OLYMPICS is a hotbed of illegality. You want the games, you've got to bribe the officials!

And for a while there, being a tech entrepreneur was the new American game. Popularized everywhere. Hell, that's the genesis of "Shark Tank"...how do you think those sharks made all that money? And the show is never canceled because there are an endless number of people creating in their backyard trying to get rich, it's easier than working for the company that has no investment in your future and will fire your ass.

And for a while there, Elizabeth Holmes was the poster child for tech entrepreneurship.

Now here's where it gets dicey, when I talk about sex. After all, so much of the blowback about this trial and its conviction centers on the fact that Holmes is a woman. But the truth is the conventional venture capitalists in Silicon Valley wouldn't give her any bread. No, her investments were made by dirty old men reeled in by an attractive young woman. And there's nothing wrong with that, but Elizabeth Holmes knew exactly what she was doing. When confronted by an employee of the fraud at Theranos, Holmes said...I'M TOO PRETTY TO GO TO JAIL!

That's a quote.

And that's another reason we want her behind bars. No one is above the law. Except when they are. Like Trump and his cronies. I mean we live in a banana republic. Roger Stone is convicted for helping Trump get elected and then is pardoned by Donald Trump. This looks bad on the surface, forget the details. And let's not even mention Steve Bannon.

And Holmes has shown no remorse. Zero. Even worse, she and her team fought the truth every step along the way. She hired David Boies and his impeccable reputation to intimidate John Carreyrou and the "Wall Street Journal" from publishing the truth. They tried to get Tyler Shultz, one of the two main whistleblowers, to sign a document shutting him up. And with this and the Weinstein scandal, Boies's reputation has taken a hit, then again, this is just the kind of representation bad actors desire.

So Holmes is awaiting trial and...

She's living a life of glory. With a rich boyfriend in a big house with a new baby. She runs into old Theranos employees at lunch and wants to converse like nothing has happened. Meanwhile, their tours at the company impacted their careers, negatively, and no one is rescuing them.

So it's this hubris that drives the public wild. Like Elizabeth Holmes is better than us, that she's above the law. And I've got to tell you, if you're playing the home game, it's hard not to feel this is American reality. If you're rich and connected you live a completely different life, not only in lifestyle, but when it comes to laws. WE WANT A CORRECTION!

As for her abuse by her boyfriend...this is like 1/6. We can see the video of the insurrection, but they tell us what's on the screen is not truthful. That these were heroes quietly protesting. And if you don't believe that, it was Antifa. And if you don't believe that, we'll come up with another cockamamie explanation. Because facts are fungible, there are multiple truths, isn't that what Kellyanne Conway said when she spoke about alternative facts? Meanwhile, Kellyanne had to quit the Trump administration to save her marriage and her family. Then again, Trump has been married three times with children by each wife. Once again, if you've got enough money the rules don't apply to you. AND TRUMP IS PROUD OF THIS! Being duplicitous and not paying taxes. As for Elizabeth Holmes, the boss with ultimate power, the buck stopping with her, being held back by a boyfriend underling...next we're gonna hear from Bill Gates and Jeff Bezos that their wives caused their philandering, caused their divorces, that all their bad behavior was attributable to their spouses!

So you watch the game and it's much more interesting than sports. Then again, we've got Formula 1, which rigged its seasonal championship so Lewis Hamilton wouldn't win once more, to make the sport look more competitive. I don't know if I can watch anymore, Formula 1's credibility has been sacrificed. Then again, Formula 1 is no longer owned by racing fanatics but Liberty, which is interested foremost in dollars, not rules. This would be like moving the fences a few hundred feet back while Babe Ruth's ball was in the air so he would hot hit a home run. This would be like the Babe hitting it over the fence between the foul poles and calling it foul instead of fair, making up the rules on the fly to make it a more competitive game.

Everything is done for the money and there's no fairness. Colin Kaepernick is an American hero but he's banned from playing in the NFL by rich old white men. They're taking away his right to earn a living. But racism is the scourge of America. That's right, when the Black underclass revolts against senseless murder it's equivalent to trying to topple the government. That's what white people who watch Fox believe. There's just no truth I tell you.

As for Silicon Valley...OF COURSE this will have a chilling effect on lying/obfuscation/fraud. To say otherwise is also hubris, working the refs. Believe me, the "Blurred Lines" decision had a chilling effect on music creation. But you create a take, stand with your brethren and push it down people's throats.

But Elizabeth Holmes has a BABY!

Yeah, right. If you knew you were possibly going to jail you wouldn't remove your IUD, thinking about the potential child first and foremost. It's hard not to see the pregnancy as a cynical effort to sway the jury and reduce the term of any potential sentence.

And then Holmes takes the stand and paints an alternative universe of Theranos.

And it's not like Holmes is some unknown tech insider. If you paid even minimal attention to the press...she was all over it, LAUDED, making you wonder about the veracity of what you read, maybe all those heroes paraded in front of our eyes are actually zeros.

And it's not like she turned down Harvard when they made her a member of the Board of Fellows of their medical school. And when corporations did not give her the pass/contract she wanted, she just used their logos anyway, she faked it. As she did by constantly saying the army was using Theranos's systems.

Used to be honor and morality were paramount. But now if you're accused of something you deny it and fight it, you don't own up to your faux pas unless you're an entertainer, who goes to rehab to try and salvage their career.

And today it looks like the Supreme Court will invalidate vaccine mandates.

Read about that antivax 46 year old lawyer in Orange County, the Republican doyenne? She didn't get vaccinated and she died. Meanwhile, the sick believe they can just get antibodies or a pill if they get Covid when the truth is the supply is so minimal that the treatments are essentially unavailable. Even worse, in the triage, if you got three shots you go to the back of the line, irrelevant of your comorbidities. Meanwhile, those who spurned the shot and got really sick are getting your treatment instead.

I'm just telling you the truth here. And the truth is I'm happy Elizabeth Holmes got convicted, joyous in fact. I don't like seeing someone's life ruined, but think of all the lives and fortunes she ruined! She's got to serve time, enough to hurt. Not like the brief terms of Lori Loughlin and the rest of the college admission manipulators.

Then again, Loughlin has become a pariah, she can't work, especially not in the wholesome movie field that was her bread and butter. The producers are afraid of the public reaction. But once again, that's entertainment, the opiate of the masses, the bread and circuses they consume while the people who run this world play by different rules and go unpunished.

Finally, someone has hit the wall. Finally, there is justice. And it's got nothing to do with the fact that she's a woman. She broke the law, her sex is irrelevant!

As for her appeal... The public doesn't realize that an appeal is not a complete retrial, it looks for errors in the original trial, and if there were none, the appeal is denied. But who knows, Holmes may stay out of jail until her kid goes to college, while she has another one or two along the way. Delay, delay, delay. When she could just bite the bullet, go to jail right now and serve her sentence, get out and have a life.

And who could live with the prospect of jail over their head?

Elizabeth Holmes and the rest of the delusional bad actors who think the rules don't apply to them...

BUT THIS TIME THEY DID!

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Peter Bogdanovich

He was a self-satisfied blowhard, but he had a window...

You had to see "The Last Picture Show." Not because of any special effects, not because of the look, but because of the performances, because of the story. "The Last Picture Show" impacted the culture. Today's superhero comic book movies do not. It's kind of like music. They're still making it, there's a business, but it doesn't even resemble the heyday.

At best we've got "The Sopranos" and other extended TV series. But movies? There's the occasional foreign film or indie flick, but no matter how good these movies are, they don't have the reach of the films of yore. Few see them, most don't care about them, and the only thing that counts is...MONEY!

When did this start.

You can talk about Steven Spielberg, with "Jaws." Spielberg is a fine-tuned machine, he knows how to create tension, drama, but he's not an auteur. He's a television director, isn't that how he made his name, with "Duel'?

But George Lucas was something different. "American Graffiti" captured the zeitgeist of the early sixties. And then it was the look and feel of "Star Wars" that was such a breakthrough. The dirtiness, the grunginess, it wasn't made to be loved by everyone but that's why it was. The more personal you make it, the more you go inside, the more it resonates with the public.

Lucas burned himself out. But before both he and Spielberg, we had Francis Ford Coppola. I don't know a single person who hasn't seen "The Godfather," it's embedded in American culture. And I'm of the belief that the second is better than the first, I'm of the belief that "Godfather II" is the best film ever made. "The Godfather" had everything: the look, the feel, the story... Unfortunately, Coppola could never reach that height again He came close with "Apocalypse Now," but the freedom of the cash, owning his own studio, getting invested in technological breakthroughs, trying to always top himself, ultimately detracted from the product, and he never could get himself back to the garden.

And then came the eighties.

I've been trying to think when all this nonsense began. It's easy to say it was with Trump, then again was he a symptom or a cause? Actually, I don't think we'd be in this democratic crisis if it weren't for Trump. He has turned the election process into a farce. When the Republicans win the presidency in 2024 the Democrats will accept it. And believe me, the Republicans will win, because otherwise the Republicans won't accept it, but the truth is they've rigged the system, so they can't possibly lose.

But before Trump we had Mitch McConnell, who broke the country by refusing to hold hearings over Merrick Garland's nomination for the Supreme Court. Mitch is of the belief that he's winning, but he's losing. Do you have faith in the Supreme Court? I certainly don't, especially not one that has thrown out the bedrock legal concept of stare decisis and is about to get rid of Roe v. Wade, even though the majority of the public wants abortion rights.

But then before that we had Newt Gingrich in the nineties. Let's not even talk about Bush II...where Gore was gracious and conceded. Never mind the fact that Saddam Hussein had no WMDs.

And before Newt we had Ronald Reagan. Who told us that government was evil and we were on our own. It's Reagan who started breaking the country, but let's be clear, the public was for it, the boomers wanted their educations turned into riches. Reagan is responsible for income inequality, the scourge of our nation, even though he's got endless edifices bearing his name.

So it became about money. Quick, how much money did "The Last Picture Show" make? NO ONE HAS ANY IDEA!

And the truth is there was publicity about the grosses of "What's Up, Doc?," but if you weren't a student of the game, you were unaware.

As for "Paper Moon"... Tatum O'Neal and her two hundred dollars, that's what you remember, from an era where lines uttered in movies became legendary.

So there was a schism. In the late sixties, the directors took the power from the studios, just like the musicians took the power from the labels. But by 1980 the execs had regained power in the film business. Too many auteurs had spent too much money on flops. And why go for the small money when you can go for the big? That's what amateurs don't understand, studios don't want to make $5 million on your $10 million picture. Forget the opportunity cost, never mind the marketing cost, the profits are just too low. They don't pay for private jets, they don't pay for the LIFESTYLE! And that's what everybody is competing on today, lifestyle. That's what you post to social media, not your possessions, and it takes a lot of money to keep up with the Joneses.

So when "The Last Picture" show came out, most Americans had not been to Texas, flights were still expensive, airline fares were regulated by the government. So, you got insight into a whole 'nother world, in addition to getting insight into your own.

But Peter Bogdanovich broke the moral code, leaving his wife for Cybill Shepherd, and then the public was out to get him, they couldn't accept it, never mind ultimately having a thrice-married presidential philanderer. And when he misstepped with "Daisy Miller," it was over. Not only did the film miss the mark artistically, Cybill Shepherd was not up to the part, she didn't yet have the acting chops she displayed in the eighties in "Moonlighting."

"At Long Last Love" was another turkey, Bogdanovich was too far from his element, and although he came back with "Nickelodeon," the buzz was done, he'd been superseded, and since it took a lot of money to make movies, his opportunities diminished greatly.

So then Peter returned to his roots, with the smaller picture, "Saint Jack," but it was for believers, and there weren't that many of them left.

"They All Laughed" had a bigger budget, but less critical success, and then came "Mask," a return to form, but the credit went to Cher and the film didn't push the envelope like Bogdanovich's earlier work and that was it. Peter made some more movies but the impact was low. And word started to spread that it was Polly Platt, his original wife, who made his initial films so great.

And then there was the soap opera of Dorothy Stratten, never mind her sister, and Bogdanovich became a pariah.

Oh, but those early movies.

Eventually Bogdanovich was given some airtime, he got a reprieve, since his buddy Orson Welles was now dead and he could tell stories about him. And just like Orson, when you can't get a film made, you rely on your stories. And then the film business changed so much Bogdanovich was called in to testify about the old days, when we all still believed in the power of movies.

That's not to say we don't have cutting edge art forms today. But they're not movies and music. Once again, the excellence of movies has moved to TV, the art conforms to the medium, and on the flat screen you can go deeper, do ten hours instead of two. Meanwhile, albums with only one good track conformed to the CD and got longer and longer, to the point where it became about the single and only the single and the internet blew up the whole business.

And today the public are the stars. The world has changed, and those who don't change with it are left behind.

That's what's confronting us today, the changed world.
And it changes when you're not paying attention. Read this article by Indi Samarajiva. He lived through the Sri Lanka civil war, in many ways it was business as usual, just like in America today.

"I Lived Through Collapse. America Is Already There. Living in Sri Lanka during the end of the civil war, I saw how life goes on, surrounded by death": https://bit.ly/31x2nEi

But even more, you must read this article in "The Guardian" that delineates today's America, to oblivious Democrats who believe the system still works, but it doesn't.

"The next US civil war is already here – we just refuse to see it": https://bit.ly/3pY7eYC

Today when people talk about old films, they talk about pics from the late nineties and early two thousands. Kind of like oldies radio, the sixties are in the rearview mirror, as are the seventies. Everyone says what is made today is just as good, but they're just convincing themselves, it's totally untrue. Computers are better. There's been a communications revolution, but now politics has the public eye...think about it, name one major musician who's aligned with a political vision, who is trying to move the ball forward? I can't think of one. As for those on the right side of the fence, they just want to jet back to a past that never even existed in the first place. Country music is not only rearguard in belief, but sound... It sounds like the rock music of the seventies, albeit with lamer lyrics. And the heroes of the younger generation? THE KARDASHIANS! Forget the music competition shows, the Kardashian family knew their show had to be all about them all the time, to make them household names. And they glommed on to every publicity opportunity. It was all about mindshare and money, and now everybody is trying to replicate their paradigm, but in music? Everybody's bitching about TikTok and social media and stating that the album cycle must be maintained, just like the inane "Billboard" chart... Our country is not about albums whatsoever, but you wouldn't know that by reading the music press, never mind listening to most of the musicians.

As for doing it yourself, Max Martin is the biggest star in America. He's the Idolmaker, we're living in the early sixties. Bobby Rydell sold records too!

But once upon a time...

You went to the movie theatre and...

It was far from expensive. And the lights went down...

Nobody had a cellphone. And most people didn't talk, because the films were seen as art, you bathed in the experience, and you talked about the pictures for years thereafter. It was about social impact, not grosses, and the movies had an impact, art drove society, it does not today.

For a while there, technology drove the culture. And just like with music, you can't tell the techies their days are done. No, the public is in charge today. And people are oftentimes misinformed, but in a culture where you tell people what they want to hear, they're convinced their opinions are right. Proud To Be Dumb, that's the motto of today's America.

And America itself isn't even the same. The self-professed Greatest Country in the World"? Er, no. We're less vaccinated, upward mobility is lower and the minority either rules or prevents the majority from enacting legislation. You can argue, but that just proves my point. Where have you been? Been to Canada? Scandinavia? They don't want you, but they know they've got it better than you do.

Everybody keeps fighting yesterday's war. Like arguing about Spotify payments and talking up vinyl, even cassettes. Most people don't even know how Spotify pays, they're unfamiliar with publishing splits, never mind on demand versus radio, and know nothing about record royalties. But that does not mean they don't have an opinion, which they get from the ill-informed whose message is spread by websites for traffic, because to learn that making bucks in music is just too scary and difficult...no one wants to hear that.

But I lived through the golden era of art.

And I lived through the golden era of the internet.

And despite all the wankers saying they don't want to hear about politics, they don't want to hear anything negative, I'm doing my best to pay attention to what is going on, because that's all that's going on, we're in a fight for democracy, our American way of life.

But we used to have time for art, we could take our eye off the ball. Except when our heroes said to pay attention. These artists who could not be influenced by the man and his money.

I remember yesterday, and I remember Peter Bogdanovich, and he made some of the greatest films ever, I'll certainly always remember them. They were anything but disposable.

But today most of America has no idea who Peter Bogdanovich was. They're living in the present, refusing to comb the past for lessons and experiences.

But Bogdanovich left us the bread crumbs, the Dead Sea Scrolls, the movies, they're there to partake of if you wish.

You should.

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Snuffy Walden-This Week's Podcast

Snuffy Walden was a raving madman of a guitar player with his band Stray Dog, opening for the likes of Emerson, Lake and Palmer, and then he sobered up and became a composer for television. Not only did Snuffy write the iconic "thirtysomething" theme, he scored "The West Wing," "The Wonder Years," "Once and Again," "Friday Night Lights" and more. Listen to how a dedicated rocker married his background with the craft of television composing and succeeded!

https://www.iheart.com/podcast/1119-the-bob-lefsetz-podcast-30806836/episode/snuffy-walden-91263010/

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/snuffy-walden/id1316200737?i=1000547091087

https://open.spotify.com/episode/4UACOS1ItmgURTelnDNS3u?si=gtfDjrLDTMKSSXhUfNEyOQ

https://music.amazon.com/podcasts/9ff4fb19-54d4-41ae-ae7a-8a6f8d3dafa8/episodes/747ddb73-beeb-49ef-bafd-a512a7f517d5/the-bob-lefsetz-podcast-snuffy-walden

https://listen.stitcher.com/yvap/?af_dp=stitcher://episode/89501613&af_web_dp=https://www.stitcher.com/episode/89501613


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Believe Playlist

https://spoti.fi/3eXIVDD


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Believe-This Week On SiriusXM

Songs with the word "Believe" in the title.

Tune in today, January 4th, to Volume 106, 7 PM East, 4 PM West.

Phone #: 844-6-VOLUME, 844-686-5863 

Twitter: @lefsetz or @siriusxmvolume/#lefsetzlive

Hear the episode live on SiriusXM VOLUME: siriusxm.us/HearLefsetzLive  

If you miss the episode, you can hear it on demand on the SiriusXM app: siriusxm.us/LefsetzLive 


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Re-The Great Resignation

Kids between 18 and 25 are on the internet making money. Between You Tube Channels, Tik Tok, Instagram and of course Only Fans, they are making either enough money to support themselves, or they are making bank, as many women on Only Fans are doing. According to the NY Post, Only Fans Stars make 270 times more than the average worker. Yes, they are showing their goods and performing sex scenes that would make Debbie from Dallas blush, but they'd rather do that then work at Subway. Can't blame them. It's safe prostitution from the comfort and security of their own home. Big $$$. 

Then you have the girl on Youtube who plants a camera in front of slot machines that she plays and records her wins. She plays nothing but high limit slots, betting $100 per spin in the more glamourous casinos around the country and records her huge jackpot wins. She makes $40-50k per month from You Tube. 

Meanwhile, my business is tied to advertising, and I just had the worst year in the last 6 years. Many small businesses and even big ones have closed now that the government money has run out and people don't want to work. Talk about trickle down economics!

Keith Michaels

_________________________________

Excellent insights but the biggest thing of all is the number or rich and super-rich people GLOBALLY. 

Yes, they buy up all the properties and don't live in them for one reason- they have to have somewhere to put their money! And, they don't care about anyone except themselves and other rich people they want to impress. The shallowness is pathetic. 

That's why NFTs are so popular. And the market keeps roaring. They have to put their money somewhere. 

But they have no hearts. They are everything we hated in the 60s. And it all took off with Reagan, Thatcher, and "greed is good". 

John Parikhal

_________________________________

Great snow here in Sun Valley but we are short handed too, and for the first time, we are facing a housing crises too, for the workers. 
Pretty large Hispanic community here. Wonderful folks. Incredibly hard working, landscaping, stone work, construction workers. Industrial as all hell and yes, they vote Republican. 

John Hummer

_________________________________

First off it's ludicrous as the Vail Corp owns Heavenly and yesterday there wasn't a parking space within a mile of the Tram or the chair going up Gun Barrel.
Now we're talking $200.00 a fucking day for a day ski pass this year.
The lines are forever and it's "Hatchet Hill" on the mountain with people who can't ski and there must be at least 30-40,000 people on the mountain yesterday.
3/4ths of them are not season pass holders! So that means they made a cool 6 Million Dollars yesterday.
And they want to pay them the Mc Donalds everyday worker pay rate?    KRAZY!

Val Garay

_________________________________

Well yes, of course.

And it's not just the eVail Empire (I wish it was, but it's not) - there are trails here at Deer Valley that have huge mounds of previously man-made snowgun snow plus six feet of natural snow over the past 10 days, trails still not opened.  Despite record holiday crowds.  It has to be a shortage of workers, presumably to either wage issues or COVID positive tests.  And, yes, the lack of employee or even affordable workforce housing is definitely part of it - in every ski town this winter.  Restaurants are shortening hours, closing 2 or even 3 days a week - not enough workforce.  Resort executives are out from behind their desks these days, helping out on the front lines of customer service.

Oi...

Toby Mamis

_________________________________

It's so interesting that in the span of a couple of days, you bemoan how you fear a Xi in power here in the States, then wonder how to change the corporate greed in America.

We need a Xi. Yes, he's a maniacal psychopath who's wrong about a lot of things, and he's a danger to free speech around the world. But he gets one thing very right: He sees that Chinese companies were siphoning profits for themselves, and not paying the people their worth. And he would not stand for it. Hence Common Prosperity. High profit margins will not be tolerated, and this will lead to a more prosperous Chinese people over time.

As long as institutional Wall Street investors reward stinginess towards US employees (and what will make them realize this will be harmful to society until they can buy the wreckage for a song?), then nothing will change. We need someone in power to put their hands firmly on the throats of business and say, "No. You will not withhold profits from the people."

You know corporate executives are cutthroat and only speak languages of money and power. And sometimes, you need to speak to them in a language that they understand.

Take care,
Michael Ball
Kensington, MD

_________________________________

As a 66 year old career corporate marketer educated sociologist this is dead on. Reminds me of our late sixties but we sold out. Not sure this young group is ever going back. 

Renee Emmett 

_________________________________

I feel similarly.  After watching that Ted Koppel piece a while back, I was so depressed.  Not mad, not 'incensed,' but exhausted and defeated.  It's a goal to keep plugging away, to try and get to a more humane place in this country, citizen by citizen.  God willing.  

Chris Schmidt

_________________________________

But what of Citizens United? Dark money organizations are buying elections now. Creating communes or kibbutzim is the only way, it seems. Many of my Millennial peers feel this way. This is the best option we've got. Screw the system, we'll make our own. 

CANCEL STUDENT DEBT!!!

- M.C. Eshed 

_________________________________

Just left beaver creek.  Where many of the lifts were not open.    35 years never saw larkspur closed until now .  I am  right of you but also thought DONT LOOK UP was great . Could have been been either party playing the bs game at the top.   System is broken . If Biden is your savior we are all in trouble.

John Huie

_________________________________

Even the Post Office has ceased drug testing for newbies…
Dave Smith
Healdsburg

_________________________________

Thought you might be interested in reading this opinion piece from the Globe and Mail here in Canada. Terrifying to think about:

"The American polity is cracked, and might collapse. Canada must prepare - The U.S. is becoming increasingly ungovernable, and some experts believe it could descend into civil war. What should Canada do then?"

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-the-american-polity-is-cracked-and-might-collapse-canada-must-prepare/

Ken Kelley

_________________________________

Your analysis of the ski resort worker shortage leaves out a crucial element that led to the current employment situation, government interference in the form of seasonal worker visas kept wages artificially low. Ski resorts used to be financial centers for communities and that included employment. However, instead of raising wages with profits, inflation etc resorts elected to keep wages suppressed with the government-provided handout of the H2 and H2b visas. This meant that residents no longer looked to the resort for employment and it made it difficult for new arrivals to establish roots or move beyond a ski bum level of subsistence. The wages are still artificially low and have not risen to what the demand would dictate because they are starting so far behind. For example: Does anyone think that $15/hour reflects what a ski patroller in the west should be getting with all the training and avalanche mitigation they do?

Tag Gross

_________________________________

25$ isn't going to cut it for those 19-34 years old, the age group where that service worker base comes from 

Home traders saddled up in 2020-2021 and turned their stimulus and bumped up unemployment benefits into playing with house money - bartenders are up 150k or more with the FAANGs and Tesla since March 2020 

Until the equity bubble bursts,

Dennis Pelowski

_________________________________

Housing.  It's all about housing at Mammoth, Park City, Tahoe, etc.  If they can't find an apt. an hour from the resort, it's 90 minutes away.   And the resorts are hiring without housing so they show up and leave after a few weeks.  Anything near the hill is $5-7k a month. 

A friend ran for Park City Mayor in the last cycle and this was his number one item. As always, a long time local won the race who's only interest is in vanity projects like a film center.  

Not to mention the transportation troubles at the resorts like PC, bumper to bumper on the road with a 10% ridership on buses.  

Sad to see. 

Lesley Bracker

_________________________________

I truly enjoy reading your newsletter every week.Thank you for expressing a valid point about how the workplace dynamic has changed within the last two years and how people are opting to stay home.It is true that many will not return to work and that companies across various fields are understaffed. I have several friends that are business owners and have complained that they simply cannot find employees that are "hungry" these days and are willing to put in the same amount of effort and hard work into their job. For many of these employers, it seems to be a common problem within the last two years. A lot of the younger kids in their 20's just want to stay home because they want to focus all of their energy on becoming "influencers" on their social media instead of going after starter jobs and growing at a company. I have personally been told this by a handful of them.They quickly learned that if they stick it, they have the potential to make money from ads on their Tik Tok and on their Youtube channels, etc. As a musician, I have nothing against either platform. I think that they are wonderful promotional tools and can be used to reach audiences. However, it seems that as an artist, it is simply just not enough to create great music with integrity and work hard as a live performer. Now, we need to evolve into Tik Tok experts or go through the sausage factory of singing competition shows in order to compete with the market and build a fan base. I often ask myself if Freddie Mercury, Michael Jackson, or Bob Dylan would have done American Idol or The Voice. In my humble opinion, artists are supposed to be system busters and disturb the peace rather than cooperate and comply with the streamlined  process of being a vocal technician on a TV Show. Is rebellion not the entire essence of what Rock and Roll is and the very fabric that makes an artist? I understand that we must evolve, and use these platforms to our advantage, but  true grit and artistry maybe the casualties that we may lose along the way… Just thinking out loud.

Best,

Ana Cristina Cash 

_________________________________

Great email, Bob. Here's an article that parallels all of this:

"Western 'Zoom Towns' Take Aim at Short-Term Rentals"

https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/blogs/stateline/2021/12/23/western-zoom-towns-take-aim-at-short-term-rentals

Micah Hulscher

_________________________________

A lot of us locals saw the Stevens Pass mess coming. 

Despite being an outdoorsy hub for the country, Washington State only has a handful of developed ski areas within 3 hours of a major city. And none of them have the real estate holdings/ski town/resort development that you'd find in Tahoe / Colorado / Sun Valley / WY or MT. They are all bare bones, day resorts with no room for expansion. Some have an RV lot. That's about it. Most don't even have enough parking spaces for full capacity.

It's clear that Vail's acquisition of Stevens was just a quick way to sell Epic passes to thousands of affluent Seattle outdoor enthusiasts. There were no other local resorts they could acquire... it was the no-brainer option to tap into our market. It worked, in spades. They sold a ton of passes to people who never would have acquired "a season pass" before. The problem is there's just not a lot a corporation like Vail can do to improve or develop anything to return their investment. All they can do is cut costs (which they're clearly doing) and encourage passholders to try their other resorts. First canary in the coal mine was the Stevens mountain bike park: Took years to develop, had lots of local goodwill (the only lift served bike park in the entire state), and they never even bothered to open it during the summer. That's a small segment of the outdoors market, but now we're seeing the full effect. 

The other problem seldom mentioned when it comes to these mega passes: Ski bums used to take a shitty, near-minimum wage job to get free ski passes and cheap pro-form (at cost) gear. 20 years ago, a good pass at a ski resort cost a $1000+ / year, easily. Day passes were under $50. A season pass never paid off unless you skied 30+ days and/or worked for the resort. Now that day tickets are ridiculously pricey ($200+ at some resorts per day) and Epic passes are a paltry $600-ish and payable via installment plans over the summer, the math is totally off. Why make that winter commute to work at a Vail resort, get paid peanuts and be treated like crap when you can deliver a few weeks for Amazon or Uber Eats in the summer from the comfort of your own car and swing a pass? No loading chairs in the freezing cold or cleaning shitty bathroom stalls in some resort basement to earn your pass while getting minimum wage. It's no wonder they can't find anyone willing to work. They need to pay competitive rates and treat employees well, and they haven't been. The non-Epic and mom & pop ski areas in WA (which do all pay better, have a good reputation, and offer easier commutes for the locals) are nearly 100% operational, even with COVID. 

It's clear we probably won't get any new ski resorts built in our country, esp. with climate change making it the shiitiest of long-term investments. I just hope they can figure out this mess - or sell Stevens off quickly - so Seattle-ites can enjoy it for the next 10-20 years (or however long there will be low-elevation snow in N. America) the way it used to be.

All of this is a mere microcosm to bigger issues plaguing our country, but I'm a Seattle skier not an economist, so this hits close to home. 
Jason
-- 
Jason Verlinde
The Fretboard Journal / The Truth About Vintage Amps podcast

_________________________________

Great piece!  The country needs some Organizers.  

All the best in 2022!

Craig Fuller

_________________________________

Do you know about the Rivian EDV that Bezos has invested so heavily in? He ordered 100,000. 10k/year for a decade. They are autonomous-ready.

Everyone at Amazon is merely a training paradigm for automation. The drivers are teaching the robots how to do their routes. In 20 years there will be no humans at Amazon.

Ever been to an Amazon facility? They are gigantic. Right now in Portland, two stages of a three-stage build are complete.

We really need to create a publicly owned union that controls all the robots and redistributes the money they make to the humans they displace. This is the only way to prevent violent anarchy in the near-future.

This is why I keep saying that America needs to convert itself into a Technocratic Social Democracy. I truly believe this eventual outcome is a certainty. Technology is going to erase capitalism.

I'm all for it. We are in a race against time. We need this cultural paradigm shift before the failed economic systems of old cause another violent civil war. We need to embrace MMT (Modern Monetary Theory) as a stepping stone to robot slavery. The huge question is who are the ethicists in control of the robot programming?

Kieron McKindle

_________________________________

It's 'minimum wage' not 'mandated wage'. Employers can pay as much as they want, they just can't pay less than the minimum. If they want to hire people, if they want a viable business, they may have to pay people more. Or they can buy some robots - that's actually not science fiction anymore. 

Kind regards, 
Rob Whittaker

_________________________________

Recent Washington Post Headline:
"One in three Americans surveyed believes violence against the government can be justified." Is this the logical next step? If so, God help us all.

Dr. Jack M. Casey
Affiliated Faculty
Communications Studies
Emerson College
Boston, Massachusetts 

_________________________________

This email you sent touches a nerve… Out riding the lifts at Park City the subject of why so little is open came up from tourists multiple times today. As a Park City native I witnessed the switch from growing up in a ski town, to living in a ski town after the whole Vail takeover of PCMR and the subsequent diminishing value it has brought with it.

Before Vail: PMCR Lift operators were better trained and knew how to still operate fixed lift chairs for skiers/boarders so they could run full speed. PCMR was not afraid to tell beginning skiers where they needed to go. Meaning to avoid certain lifts before they had enough experience to ride lifts that served harder terrain. PCMR would open when there was enough snow - even if it were prior to Thanksgiving. PCMR would stay open as long as there was enough snow - even if it were post Easter.

PCMR brought in people on special visas to work the ski season by the droves - when housing was affordable for the season.

Things worked. Fun was had. Skiing/boarding was great.

After Vail: The first thing that happened was Vail attempted to trademark the name Park City. The people & businesses of the city fought back and Vail dropped that effort.

PCMR/Vail opens at thanksgiving (though this year there was no snow and it was too warm to make any). PCMR/Vail closes at Easter. While they've stated they'll stay open an extra week this year, that remains to be seen.

PCMR/Vail lifties are not as well trained anymore. It's painfully obvious in how they tend to run the fixed lift chairs. Rarely clearing them of snow and/or holding them as skiers sit down. They never, NEVER explain to an inexperienced rider that they should go learn at First Time (a beginners lift in Park City). Often they can be seen in the lift cabin staring at their cell phone, not paying attention to lift operations.

The resort still brings in people on visas to work resort jobs, but housing is in real short supply now and super pricey so they don't seem to get the same influx they used to.

As a reference to what you wrote: some developer bought the house next to mine that had been there for 70 years then tore it down. Couldn't get an easement he wanted and sold it to another developer who had zero history of the area. The city allowed him to split it into two half sized lots and is erecting two cheap, cut corners, multi-million dollar homes (my sister is an award winning architect who saw some of the construction and mentioned it would get red tagged in CA and have to be redone. However, Park City's building department is looking the other way and allowing it to happen - I want to feel bad for the people who buy these expensive junk homes, but I won't). There is no way these things will get rented to resort workers and chances are they will sit empty for most of the year like many of the other homes around me in Park City. Yet somehow we're still crowded.

PCMR/Vail has roughly half the mountain open and was charging $230/day for a pass this past week and a half. Normal price is roughly $170/day for the full mountain. So Vail is gouging their customers. In a way I can understand why people that pay this much want to parade around town and the mountain acting like kings and queens.

PCMR/Vail recently started "requiring" masks on gondolas. However, much like last year, the reality is very different. There are signs saying as such, though the lifties don't care to enforce it and Vail won't pull someone's pass for fear of losing a customer. So people get in the gondolas, sans mask and proudly announce they're unvaccinated. It's insanity. Then they have the gall to ask where the locals, like myself (wearing an N95 to protect me from them), prefer to ski on the mountain. My answer is usually to point them somewhere I won't be on the mountain.

The crowds at PCMR/Vail were horrendous with a less than half open mountain in the last month. Lift line times that rivaled the old era prior to high-speed chairs (30+ minutes). But now with high-speed chairs and a half open mountain, now it's 30 minute lines and all those people that high-speed chairs can put on the runs as well. Like fish in a barrel type situation on the mountain with people who aren't looking where they're going.

At PCMR/Vail very few people adhere to, or possibly even know, the skiers/boarders code. Which means people stop anywhere they please on a run to grab a selfie or wait for a friend. Yet if you get to close to someone in an attempt to avoid hitting them when they do something stupid, they get real pissy. Is it any wonder why so many of these people need helmets to ride now?

It's extremely sad to see the downward spiral of the town and the resort in real time since 2015. It went from being reasonably affordable to outright laughable. Part of the problem is the AirBnB garbage. The town council would like to curb it, however, the state has hamstrung cities from being able to do anything. Plus it now includes phony shell corps spending millions on little ski shacks and renting them out privately for stupid sums of money.

The real charm of what brought people here, has left in the last 7 years. No more affordable spots to live for seasonal workers. Insane traffic on streets not designed to handle it. And general diminishing quality of life that, as you mentioned, isn't the same any more.

I wonder how long Vail can continue to promote the charade of PCMR and winter sports in general. Especially if they refuse to pay people appropriately to work and stay focused. Currently the only thing Vail corp is getting right - the price of the Epic Pass.

Jody Whitesides

_________________________________

I Lived Through Collapse. America Is Already There. | by indi.ca | GEN
https://gen.medium.com/i-lived-through-collapse-america-is-already-there-ba1e4b54c5fc

moi-meme

(Please click through and read the story at the above link. It posits that democracy has already ended in the U.S., we're waiting for a catclysmic event, but it probably won't come. The writer talks about being in Sri Lanka during its civil war. He points out that life goes on, you may not feel it, but the institutions are being gutted while you're partying.)

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More Social Security

Dear Bob, I agree with all your comments. While I am not a financial planner as a C.P.A. I discuss these sorts of issues often and I fine 2 common mistakes:
1. folks assume they will be in a LOWER tax bracket when they retire, the taxation of social security generally levels this out and often people might be in a HIGHER tax bracket when they retire and the BIG ONE
2. People underestimate how long they are going to live (to your point). I have folks in my office often with parents in their 90's - let me tell you need a LOT of fucking money if you retire in your late 60's and live another 30 years!!!! Income is down and expenses are up!!

On another note, I'd bet money EVERY advisor around Bruce Springsteen was begging him to get his catalog sold before 12/31. The threat of increased long terms cap gains rates and the elimination of the weird and special ability of songwriters to declare their sale as a long term cap gains:
https://flypaper.soundfly.com/hustle/songwriters-heres-your-tax-loophole/
all the advisors of song writers I'm sure said the same thing on 2021: "IF you are EVER going to sell your catalog, don't wait, do it NOW!!!"

Peter Riley

_________________________________

Long time reader, first time writer (this topic is near and dear to me, so I felt it was the right time). After spending 16 years in the music biz (mostly at Atlantic and Sony) I became a financial advisor because I saw an enormous lack of education around financial topics at all levels of the industry (music execs, artists, writers, producers). I became a resource for that information because I saw colleagues mismanage their money, go into debt, lose income because they didn't fully understand their group benefits, etc… and I didn't want that to happen to anyone else.

Taxes, income protection, investing, managing debt, retirement planning, maximizing social security…. All EXTREMELY important, but most folks aren't paying attention until it's too late. The biggest excuse I hear is "these are rich people's problems", but that's not the case AT ALL. You don't need to be a millionaire, or have a business manager, to be educated and have a plan for these areas. In fact, I'd argue it's even more important for the rank and file execs, and the writers/artists/producers who aren't making a boatload of money yet. These folks would have a tougher time paying for basic monthly expenses if there's ever a big tax/debt payment owed, or they can't work for a month or two (god forbid longer).

A word to the wise for any of your readers who earn an income… don't wait! There are advisors out there willing to talk about these topics. And some of us don't charge for our time, so no there's no excuse. I've had the opportunity to educate many clients from the music industry over the years, from CEOs and owners of labels to those just starting out. And I'll tell you what I tell each of them (paraphrasing Benjamin Franklin)…FAILING TO PLAN IS PLANNING TO FAIL.

Wishing you and your readers much success in 2022!

Andrew Feigenbaum
Financial Advisor

_________________________________

Bob so right on. Not there yet but as a pension actuary it's a no brainer to defer as long as possible (plus these folks who take at 62 then also get to deal with having benefits clawed back if they still work and make over a not too high threshold).
In any event most of my clients are pure type A personalities, and retiring early is not in their DNA. Have a client who I know has more than enough in his small business and retirement savings to stop working (and literally use cash in the fireplace to keep warm and not be in a bad position). Stu is 85 and what keeps him alive and in the game is keeping his little business going.
Best
Mike Wyatt

_________________________________

Those of us old enough to have been raised by parents who grew up during the Great Depression had instilled in us the belief that you did what you had to do to get by and if that meant working a shit job for shit pay until something better came along then so be it. Key to that thinking was the firm belief that something better would indeed come along if you just stuck with it.

I was deeply influenced by the economic insecurity I felt growing up and so put a premium on job security and a pension, which is why I saw the lower pay potential of a career in federal government as a reasonable trade-off for a reliable pension that would last a lifetime.

We live in a different world now. The kind of pension and job security I had is a thing of the past. People are no longer convinced that sticking with it will necessarily lead to success. Anti-work is now a thing.

I accept that time has passed me by and that I couldn't thrive in today's economy. The idea of working in a room at home as opposed to going into the big city seems very bleak to me. Imagine an entire generation that will never know the pleasure of having a favorite place for lunch.

But this is the only world my grandchildren will know. They are all pretty smart. They will figure it out.

George Laugelli

_________________________________

I look forward to your emails each week. Thanks for posting the article about social security. I am a Registered Investment Advisor, a fiduciary to my clients. I subscribe to Kotlikoff's MaxiFi software and my job is to help my clients maximize their retirement income.

It is still an uphill battle but should they get the opportunity, my clients get it. In fact, the most difficult aspect of the process is to show people that dipping into their next egg to bridge the gap before age 70, so they can maximize the inflation protected social security benefit

Keep on telling the story. Much appreciative.

Rick Shrier

_________________________________

I'm not a idiot for taking SS 1 month after turning 66 per my discussions with my accountant

I'd like to see you try to get by on what I was making the last 3 years. You couldn't

I choose to live my life after 45 years in the Music Biz. Not to kid myself that the $ was going to turn

So disappointed in you Bob for saying Everyone taking SS before their 70 is a idiot

Kevin Sutter

_________________________________

Bob, I'm 66 and working part time. I decided to defer my social security for a year, but haven't been able to make my monthly nut -- even working 3 days a week. What planet do you live on where you can call everyone who doesn't wait til 70 to collect SS an imbecile? And in the very same column you write, " And sure, people are cheap, but they've also got a limited amount of money."

C'mon man.

Dave Rubien

_________________________________

Money is a taboo subject to discuss in our society. We have socially acceptable ways to let people know we are affluent or successful. But actually revealing how much you have and what you do to invest it? It seems like the financial community has a vested interest in keeping us from shining any light on this subject. Yet money - whether you have it or don't have it - has an extraordinary influence on our lives. I have always thought it would make an interesting book to study how money influences peoples' attitudes about everything in their lives.

Lori Turoff

_________________________________

Actually, recently advisors are talking about 2.6% (asset drawdown).

Tom Armstrong

_________________________________

They should make financial literacy part of high school curriculum. It's the only way to have the best shot to educate the most people about financial issues. That way those whose parents don't teach them, those with parents who are bad role models on financial issues, and everyone else, including those who could be rich and famous one day or not would have the opportunity to learn about this important topic.

Neal Bookspan

_________________________________

Hey Bob, I applied for social security at 62, but don't consider myself an imbecile
Sure I'm going to receive less for the rest of my life, but when you are on the brink of not being able to pay your mortgage and as a result losing your home you have to make hard decisions that are right for you at the moment.
As you mentioned, you have been broke in the past, so maybe you too, might have taken the 700.00 per month to your future detriment.
Still a homeowner in Washington

Howard Wolen

_________________________________

Another great article. Once again your message resonates with me.
A few thoughts:
The name of my first book, if I ever get around to writing it: "For all the wrong reasons."

A realization after working with many rich people: "Rich People can Afford to be Stupid!"

Social Security expert (cost: $200) told my wife and I that there were two reasons for me to delay taking SS benefits until age 70 1/2. A. Survivor Benefits. Most likely men will die before their wife's die. My wife took her benefits at 64 ($2,000) and I took 50% of her benefits or $1,000. My $2,500 in benefits grew to $3,600 at 70 1/2. If I die my wife can take the higher of her's or my benefits. Expert said: $1,100/month or $13,200/year could make a big difference to the survivor. As Courtney said: do the math!
Together wife and I would have $4,500 that would be reduced when I died to $2,500 (not allowing for increases and assuming I didn't delay until 70 1/2) a reduction of $2,000 (44%) vs a reduction of $900 (20%) if I delayed.
Expert also said:
B. Where can you invest your money and get a guaranteed 8% return which is the rate you will earn per year if you delay. Better to live off your savings conservatively earning less than 8% and not guaranteed (assuming you have savings) then take SS early.
In the end, retirement is all about cash flow. Expert said: people always say they will downsize but when the time comes, they don't want to downsize to bring their expenses in line with their incoming cash flow. They refuse to make adjustments so they are living within their means. They refuse to grow up and be honest with themselves.
The road less traveled is about being "financially" responsible (living within your means) and delayed gratification (don't buy it until you can afford it).
While growing up I would ask my father to buy me many things. His answer was always: ask yourself, do you really need it? Answer was always no, so we (I) learned to live without.

I had lunch with an accountant who was a dear family friend during the 1990 recession. I said Don there is nothing worse than during down times not thinking that things will get better.
He said there was one thing worse. During good times not thinking that things could get worse.

Best wishes in the new year.
Bob Edwards

_________________________________

I was listening until I hit the part "sells Maximize My Social Security software," You CAN leave money on the proverbial table by waiting until full retirement date...my best friend since 7th grade ( we're both 66) has plenty of $ and has bought into this bullshit about waiting until full retirement age to collect. He may have even paid for the same software, as he is wont to do..BUT he has the advantage of having enough $ to be stupid. I on the other hand do not so I started to collect SS at the age of 64 1/2.....Every personal situation is different.

All the best,

Chris O'Shea

_________________________________

Thanks for the advice.
Just last week I said to my wife " I wish my father told me to invest in homes, land something. Living in Florida and he didn't know to do it. Or maybe he did & just didn't have the bucks.
and as a rock n roll garage band drummer I blew through money while in H.S. and college and yes, never became a rock star. great memories and had a corvette (but nobody told me to keep it and don't drive it). LOL!

I took SS at 67 - after open heart I did think I'd be here today and that my days were numbered.
but I have a good doc and still kicking at 74 1/2 - that 1/2 is important. And oh btw, still working. which I love but what sucks is I pay tax on my SS but I don't care as I'm still afraid politically it won't be around if it gets in the wrong/right hands.
And my wife knows how to save thank g-d.

stay well and keep grooving

Steve Hass

_________________________________

Thank you for sharing! Financial literacy is so important. I grew up in a middle class family (single/divorced mother, 4 kids -I'm the youngest). Now that I'm an adult, I can see so many ways our family and countless others were misinformed about money. Many people know how to make ends meet (which is an important skill!) but don't know how to invest, budget and plan for their future. Not to mention salaries are low for a lot of people, so they focus on keeping food on their plates, a roof above their head and a few bills paid. And government programs are dwindling.
Thankfully, information is more available now… it doesn't solve for everything, but it helps.

Léna Lgd

_________________________________

Great post as always - the article below offers a viable roadmap.

https://www.financialsamurai.com/when-to-take-social-security/

Tim Greco

_________________________________

Re: 29% being astronomical, it is...and it's also about what the S&P returned this year. Could've bought SPY on Jan 1 and never looked back. Of course, everyone thinks they're a genius during a bull run up. You'd think the house of cards has to collapse sooner or later, but this makes 13 straight years of insanity.

Daniel Kellner

_________________________________

Hey Bob,

Wonderful and timely.

Anytime that you write and link lessons / thoughts to your mother or father it is 5 star.

Alan Cassidy

_________________________________

thank you for this...

Denise Mello

_________________________________

Great piece on social security. I, too, went broke one time. Hopefully never again. I hope a lot of people read through your piece and grasp it.

Toby Mamis

_________________________________

Yes, you don't know when you're going to die or what condition you'll be in as you age. Shit happens.

When it comes to money you follow the basics - save 10% of your pay, put it in an index fund (S&P 500 works), or use your firm's 401K especially if they do some sort of match. 18% of the 122 million US households are millionaires. The Thrift Savings Plan has over 6 M participants. TSP is the worlds' largest savings plan for US Govt employees and this is only 33% of the total.
When it comes to one's health it's nutrition and exercise. You don't go to fast food places, or eat processed foods. You watch portions, limit alcohol. We control what goes into our mouths, ears and eyes. So choose carefully.

IT'S ALL ABOUT CASH FLOW. Can you afford it or not, and do you have a stash for when stuff breaks. Period!

It isn't that hard. And if you're not paying attention you'll be fleeced.

Courtney Love is NOT typical. She came into prominence due to marrying Curt. And yes, being a musician is not the road to a stable financial platform. My son can play and has chops and so its a hobby as he enjoys paying his bills and living in his own place.

All the wealth advisors are playing the FUD card. Fear, uncertainty and doubt. They prey on peoples' uncertainty. There was this woman, a financial advisor, who lived in my hood who told my wife about how the short and long term bond rates were crossing over and this was a bad thing. Complete bullshit. She was playing the long con knowing that one day I would die before my wife and she was positioning herself as the go to advisor. I told my wife don't ever go near her. She knows nothing. Oh, yeah, worked for Wells Fargo - and she had no problem with that. No morals.

Terrance Moran

_________________________________

A Big Thanks and an Agree...

Jim Eaton

_________________________________

Great article and good and needed advice for your readers. Managing money is a skill which few posses or appreciate. I'm not one for mandates, but financial management and cooking/nutrition are essential skills for your mental and physical health and should be taught in schools.

And it is not uncommon for successful folks to go broke. If you made it once you are in much better position to make it back again as long as you have time.

Too many make small but frequent financial mistakes that compound over a lifetime, but the skillful and disciplined enjoy the compounding of small and frequent wins. Health and wealth, and one without the other isn't neatly as valuable.

Stay safe,

Ed Kelly

_________________________________

Thanks, Bob. I am in my 62nd year and wanting to slow down in the law rat race. Figured I would just tap the social security and with retirement savings, all would be well. The problem is the more you make, the more you spend. So those fortunate ones who make decent money have to worry that retirement is going to leave them short, no matter how much we may have saved. Tough problem. And your posting captured it perfectly.

Happy New Year…

Andrew Zacks

_________________________________

I resented being called an imbecile for applying for Social security at 66. I worked for the man for 30 plus years and I deserve it. Whether I die at 69 or 99. I still deserve my payout. You are completely wrong Bob!! You should retract.

David Bodnar

_________________________________

I am one of the imbeciles that took social security before 70.

I took it at 63.

I was going to wait till 66 as that calculated out to be most beneficial if I live to 80.

After reading numerous articles that showed waiting till 70 would take 12 years to catch up to taking it at 62 I decided to jump in.

You might want to do some more research.

My SS has already funded some new skis!

Philip Beliveau

_________________________________

Yes, most people overspend their income. It takes restraint and self-discipline to save.

One other piece of advice. It is far more likely that you will become disabled before you die, and will require some form of assisted living or skilled care, either at home or in a facility. The best advice I ever received was to purchase long term care insurance. Regular health insurance and Medicare don't cover the costs for assisted living. It can quickly deplete your savings. Quickly. If you can afford it and can be underwritten for it, purchase it as soon as you can.

My father could not be underwritten for it but he purchased it for my mom in her 60s. She's now 96 and has required assisted living care at home for more than a decade and 24/7 around the clock care at home for the past 5 or 6 years. Her policy pays for almost all of it and the costs are not cheap. It has allowed her to receive assisted living in her own home, which she prefers, kept her from having to live in an assisted living facility. And also taken a financial burden off of her kids to pay for her care. Best investment my dad ever made.

I was lucky to be healthy enough able to get underwritten for long term insurance when I was 60. Gives me tremendous piece of mind. I recommend it to everyone.

Barry K. Herman, MD, MMM

_________________________________

Asians tend to put their fortune in real estate which generally yields good returns. That worked back in the days. However, if you have been following real estate prices in metropolitan cities like Hong Kong, Tokyo, Taipei or any commercial or industrial/tech focused cities in Singapore, China, Korea, India etc , You would know what's happening in the US or UK is now happening in these developing countries. I can't recall which publication but according to the article, a judge in Asia who has been practicing law in the legal field for 20-30 years said recently that he couldn't even afford buying a place near the courthouse in the city. The prices are just outrageous. Most Gen X-Z and Millennials cannot do it on their own without help from family eg help with down payment or mortgage.

Shirley Wu

_________________________________

Excellent letter, Bob! Thanks!

Samuel Jones

_________________________________

Hi Bob. I love your blog. Please remember to think and do research before name calling. I'm one of those "imbeciles" (your words) taking social security at full retirement (66) rather than waiting until 70. My father died at 57 and his father died at 57 too. I've done the math. And cumulative SS payments, whether low or high cross paths at around 78-80 yo. So if you live longer, yes, waiting until 70 makes sense because you will get more. But what if you die before 78? And no, I don't expect that SS will pay for everything. My point is that not everyone is an imbecile who doesn't think exactly like you do.

Jon Brooks

_________________________________

Thanks for this. It ties into your recent email on the WSJ money management nightmares as we age.
Planning? While most of us never expected to get this old. I didn't plan much because my dad died when he was 38 (I was 10) and my mom was 62 when she died.

When you see how tenuous life is at such an early age, it affects you. You really DON'T expect to live to be very old, genes don't lie. You live life differently, in the moment. I had to get out, see everything, go places. The idea was to squeeze the most out of life. A stable, measured life may make living to be 95 easier but it isn't very appealing. My mom made some real money but she lived for the moment. Money was just a means to do more living. You don't save or plan, you go for it.

But you know that you go for it at your own peril. I think we'll see more people hit an age they didn't expect to reach and simply say; when the money is gone is when I will check out or I'll wait until my health impacts the quality of life to a degree I find unacceptable.

John Brodey

_________________________________

So true. Was recently discussing with various groups of friends … everyone is different (& sometimes the ones who need the best info seem to have the least)

Wallace Collins

_________________________________

Hey Bob, I don't think any of your readers expect you to know how the other half live but you should know enough by now to realize not everyone takes social security early because they're "imbeciles." There are a lot of factors involved where people have no choice whatsoever and they're then forever screwed whether they know or not. I just wanted to point that out because you're not usually so insensitive.

Dustin Edelhertz

_________________________________

There's a lot to unload in this letter.

As one of those "imbeciles", I took my Social Security as soon as I could. I watched two of my brothers, (that paid into the system all of their lives). wait. But, they didn't see Stage 4 cancer coming down the pike. They didn't get a fucking cent out of the system. Too young for Medicare, working shit jobs sans medical insurance and NO Obamacare, they couldn't even afford to catch the Big C in it's early stages.
One had prostate cancer. That's treatable!

So please excuse my imbecility for getting what I can out of the system while I am still above ground.

You were, to me, (a son of a single working mom with 7 kids), a child of privilege.You attended college. What were you schooled as? A lawyer?
Well…what can a poor boy do? 'Cept to sing for a rock and roll band. That's me. I was nearly good enough to almost play a frat party.

You're doing okay, though. But, for those of us on Social Security and still on the bottom, we still HAVE to work and most of us will...until we die. Or get too goddamn sick to do so. Guess what jobs we can get?

"Mooch" off of our kids? You must not be a parent. Those kids, in many cases, are still living with us!

And here you are telling us about how the hell the privileged can't get up to the top of a mountain, only to slide back down it.

Then again, my enjoyment is baseball. That dying game you wrote of in a recent letter. You know…that unpopular game that has the freak of a Japanese kid that can hit a 100 mph fastball and strike out hitters, (in the same game), with a 100 mph fastball.

The Occupy movement could have worked, by the way. Had some dude, that said he promised to "fundamentally change the way Washington worked", been the revolutionary he professed to be on the campaign trail and supported the people in that park and all of the ancillary protests that sprang up all over the country…nay, the world, maybe we wouldn't live in the shithole country we've been since Reagan. Maybe there would have never been Trump in the White House or a rampant, seemingly unending, pandemic.

Make no mistake...There will be no revolution without guns. That's so damn un-American, it hurts. The vast majority of liberal/progressive Americans, with higher education or not, are just too damn stupid and self-centered to pull one off.

But, the morons who succumb to the cult of Trumpism, know that. They are locked and loaded and coming. Not for your guns, (because we don't need guns. We have ideas.), but for your country.

Now…what was that about ski-lifties?

Scott Sechman

_________________________________

Highlight of my day being called an imbecile!

Gary Berlak
Fresno


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Re-Social Security

There's a great story in the "Financial Times" entitled "Courtney Love explains why you've got to do the math - As part of the FT Financial Literacy and Inclusion Campaign, the musician shares her story about making - and losing - a fortune." Please read it, it's no longer behind a paywall: https://on.ft.com/3JwZe8G

My father was an outsider, never a member of the group, he was analytical and skeptical, and I learned his lessons through osmosis. Then again, thinking back, we used to call it "The Morris Lefsetz Philosophy," when he rendered his financial wisdom, told us how the world worked, they certainly didn't teach these lessons in school. Then again, they did teach Home Economics, but this was back in the sixties, before girls played Little League and boys took Home Ec. Ergo, I never learned to cook. And my mother was uninterested in cooking, it was an obligation in between her participation in cultural affairs. And my father was a gourmet, we ate out on a regular basis, however mostly in hole-in-the-wall finds that ultimately became a feature of "New York" magazine's "Underground Gourmet." So I can order, but I cannot make.

I thought people knew about money, but they don't.

And conventional wisdom about money is about as good as conventional wisdom about politics. There are authorities, and you should listen to them, not your buddy who pontificates like they know everything. I was just told that this couple made 29% on their money last year. That's astronomical. But then I asked them what their money was in...stocks, bonds, cash...they had no idea. Some billionaires just told them to invest with this guy and they did. Did this financial advisor ask them whether they wanted high risk or low risk or...? They had no answer to that question. I have a friend who got nearly ten million dollars in a divorce settlement, put it in high risk investments during the first internet run-up, that's right, before the dot.com crash, and lost all of it, each and every penny, died broke living in her sister's house.

If you read the Courtney Love article you'll learn that her mother inherited millions and lost it all in a few years. Managing money is a skill, and most people don't have it.

Just like they know nothing about Social Security.

On May 9th of last year, "The Wall Street Journal" did a story entitled "The Biggest Mistakes People Make With Social Security - One of the most common and costly: worrying about dying too soon.": https://on.wsj.com/3pLjFH2

Unfortunately, this article is still behind a paywall. But I pay in excess of $500 a year for the "Wall Street Journal" and read it cover to cover, that's how I saw it, that's how I know this. So if I was a zillionaire rock star... But I'm not. That's what the financially savvy middle class doesn't realize. Sure, if they made the money of a rock star they wouldn't blow it, but they could never become a rock star and earn that money! Becoming a rock star involves a plethora of risk. You're flying without a net. And most people don't succeed. If you go to college and enter the traditional working world your odds of economic survival are greatly increased, but you will never be a rock star. The choices of the musicians I know, the experiences they've had...getting their cars repossessed, getting their stuff stolen without insurance... The list is endless. Bad decisions on parade. Would never happen to me. Then again, I would never take that risk, get it?

So I read this article back in May, and it stuck in my brain, I just Googled and found it. Because I'm constantly having arguments with people saying that Social Security is their money, and if they die early the government gets to keep it. As for me... I don't care if I die with money in the bank, or if I'm upside down on Social Security, I just fear the opposite, running out of money, which I already did once, it's amazing I survived. If you're broke all you can think about is money 24/7, you can't get ahead. As for the concept of the "starving artist"... Let me tell you, most of these people are just starving, they're not artists, they're not going anywhere. And I believe we should have a better safety net for these people, but that's a different topic.

So since this "Wall Street Journal" article is behind a paywall, I'm going to reproduce, for the public benefit, the #1 biggest mistake people make with Social Security:

"1. Worrying about dying too young

Many clients file for Social Security benefits earlier than necessary because they fret about not living long enough to get all their money back from the government program.

They have it all backward, according to Boston University economist Laurence Kotlikoff, who heads a firm that sells Maximize My Social Security software, which helps people determine when to start collecting their benefit.

Social Security is longevity insurance, he says. That is, it offers protection against running out of money as we age. People don't do break-even calculations when they buy home insurance, because they are protecting themselves against a catastrophic event like a fire. They shouldn't do them with Social Security either, he says.

'We can't determine when we're going to die,' he says, 'We have to focus first and foremost on the worst case, as if we're going to live forever. Living a long time is a financial disaster. It may be good personally.'

That message is getting through to more Americans. The percentage taking Social Security as soon as they are eligible—at age 62—has roughly halved in the past 15 years, to about 25% in 2019. Even so, only about 6% of Americans claiming Social Security in 2017 were age 70, according to the Center for Retirement Research."

I could amplify the foregoing, but I think it's clear on its surface.

As for Social Security, I can't believe I'm even writing about it. It's for old people, but now all the baby boomers are old. And unlike their parents, most weren't responsible, they didn't put money away for retirement. Or else they had unforeseen financial hardship. In any event, it's a rare person I know who is prepared for their retirement years. They think they can work forever, but they don't want to, and the dirty little secret is you can tell people you feel like forty all day long but your body doesn't know that. Do you know old people? They're not perfect health specimens. Their bodies creak, they're in pain and then there's the third rail, mental impairment/decline. I hung with Freddy Moore every day for two years. He was one of the most happening people in the L.A. music scene of the late seventies and early eighties, with his bands the Kats/Nu-Kats and Boy and... Freddy's just 71, but he's got dementia, he's in a facility. Could happen to you. So please live life to the fullest, don't say no when you can say yes. However, just the opposite may be true. You could live to a hundred, clear-headed. Then what? Do you have enough cash to live on? The rule of thumb is to live on 5% of your retirement assets. Actually, recently advisors are talking about 4%. So stay within your means, don't blow it all on frivolous items. Like a depreciating asset, like a car.

As for what other people are doing... That was another thing my father always said... "If everybody else is jumping off a bridge, should you?" That other person might be wealthy. They might not have a job but inherited cash. Or they might be living far beyond their means and the crash is just around the corner. You'd be stunned who was rich and famous in the past who is living in a one bedroom apartment today, struggling. Fame doesn't mean you're rich, and it certainly doesn't mean you're smart with your money.

My father died at 70. The Big C got him. He dotted all the i's and t's but it made no difference. Meanwhile, our closest family friend did not. Was saved at the last minute by medical miracles again and again. But he and his wife lived past ninety. He'd had a good job, he'd gone to Harvard for graduate school. Thank god their kids did well enough to shtup them money to survive.

And then there was another friend, who went to Harvard undergrad. Who owned his own pharmacy. He and his wife got a reverse mortgage, and then they outlived their money and survived on the cash of their children.

I don't have any children, whether they'd take care of me or not.

And everybody's situation is unique. But one thing's for sure, you've got no idea when you're gonna die, hell, the Who sang about dying before they got old and now Roger and Pete are over seventy. It's great to live in the moment, but the future keeps coming, please be prepared.

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