"Why Netflix Is Suffering From a Perpetual Sophomore Slump - Analysis - Long season breaks, increased competition and confusing release schedules have led to shows seeing big ratings declines between seasons. But does Netflix care?" https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/tv/articles/why-netflix-suffering-perpetual-sophomore-130000516.html When was the last time you saw a second season as good as the first? Hell, if you watched the first season of "The Four Seasons" there was no reason to watch the second. I mean if you like this kind of show...but there was nothing special, it was kind of like the endless "Sex and the City" reboots. And we have this same problem in music. WHAT? Let's start with today's "New York" magazine's Vulture post: "The Best Albums of the Year So Far - 2026's highlights reach across geographic borders and musical traditions": https://apple.news/A9SoI2Qy5RMq-EJNH5TloaQ https://shorturl.at/MsxRv I must ask you, how many of these albums have you actually heard of, never mind actually heard? I mean who is spending all this time combing through all this dreck to find this stuff that has no mainstream traction, never mind probably not deserving of it? There are no trusted filters. Except for personal word of mouth and recommenders on TikTok. Whoa! You say... This means you probably watch HBO. If you read the article at the top of this screed you'll see that HBO's shows have less of a fall-off than Netflix's. But that's because HBO has so many fewer shows! HBO has a creme de la creme policy. Which worked in the days of pay cable, but now... Oldsters love HBO, they've had the habit since "The Sopranos," maybe "Larry Sanders." But youngsters? Youngsters need new. Period. Now think about this. Think of meme culture. What do we know about it? It's one and done! That lady with the mask. Even the guy skateboarding to Fleetwood Mac... They never have another hit. As for those who sustain on social media and YouTube, they do their best not to repeat themselves, they're always pushing the envelope, trying for something new... It's a dog eat dog world and even the successful people burn out but if you create a bond with viewers and keep pushing the envelope, you can build an audience and sustain. As soon as you stop producing on a regular basis, you're toast. You've got to be in the customer's face on a regular basis, and it better not be repeats. How much innovative stuff do we hear in the Spotify Top 50? Most sounds like what came before. It's not must-hear listening. Kinda like NBC no longer has Must See TV on Thursday nights, times change, and you've go to change with them. So you have an act with a written by committee hit, is there any real loyalty to the act as opposed to the song? Furthermore, what are the odds of getting something innovative from these same people in the future? Low. This is why the Beatles are the Beatles and other than the Stones, the rest of the British Invasion faded. People had seen the movie. They got caught up in the mania for a while, but then... The Beatles kept changing, from love songs to personal dramas... Did Gerry & the Pacemakers write "Norwegian Wood"? Billy J. Kramer and the Dakotas? True artists innovate. Commerce is just that, about the money. So, how many Netflix hits are worth watching a second season? "Ozark" definitely. Recently, "The Diplomat," and that's just about at its limit, no matter how good Keri Russell is, the plot has now become fantastical. We are watching "Scott & Bailey." An old British police show. And at the end of the second season I've realized what makes the show great is not the crimes, the conventional plot, but the behaviors of the characters, their relationships, the scrapes they get into. I continue to watch to see what happens to them. As for murder? Seen a couple and you've seen them all. Which of course brings us to "Law & Order"... But that's old paradigm too. Do not conflate the old with the new. The fact that oldsters will tolerate a week to week drip does not mean that youngsters will. They've been brought up in an on demand culture where they need it immediately. So if you want to have a career in music, you just can't keep doing the same thing. How many acts are changing from album to album today, demanding attention? So the original fan base, to the degree it exists, diminishes, and no one new comes on, there's no buzz, they've been there and done that. Think of Top 40 in the sixties. Or FM rock in the late sixties into the seventies. And the first decade of MTV... You had to listen/watch, you never knew what you'd encounter, and whatever you did would become the bedrock of culture. Speaking of culture, no one could predict Culture Club after the corporate rock of the seventies. The public was surprised, titillated, they wanted more. As for "Stranger Things" and "Squid Game"... You saw one season, you needed no more. I stopped there. I got it. More of the same, in a world where there are so many options? This is the mind-set of the younger generations. There's limited time and they want to use it to the best of their benefit. Whereas Boomers were brought up in the three network world where you had ads and reruns in the summer... Offerings were limited. Now offerings are unlimited! So people have trouble finding returning shows on Netflix and oftentimes they're not worth their while. So they don't watch. Maybe Netflix could get away with making less product, but the great thing about Netflix is you never know what you'll get next. I know what I'll get next on "The Pitt"... It's a circle jerk for fans of "ER." 75% of viewers of "The Pitt" are over thirty. They're old school viewers. And if you study TV, you know the big issue is YouTube, which keeps gobbling up overall screen time. And almost all of that is short term viewing. Does that mean youngsters want short term viewing? No, they have an appetite for that, but what they want is quality. And if it ain't great, they move on. In other words, especially in the record industry, the usual suspects, the gatekeepers, the platforms, have little control. There were all these hosannas about the new McCartney album. Not one person ever e-mailed me about it. Streams are anemic. We've been there and done that. Some people are interested, most people are not. I don't want to make this about McCartney, but the album went to #1 in the U.S. and U.K. and seems to have no cultural impact. That's fine if you don't expect much, but... It's just like a second season of a Netflix series. Why do I have to watch the second if I've seen the first? As for "brands"... They’re declining in value, look at superhero movies. No, it's about content, quality, resonating with the audience. Which is why "Obsession" could be such a surprising hit. The YouTube audience already knew the director, they wanted to see what he'd come up with. And if he repeats himself in the future... But movies are the smallest market in terms of the amount of product. Then comes TV and then comes music. How do you get people's attention? Turns out hype doesn't work. So what does? Word of mouth. And to get word of mouth you must have fans. And those fans have to spread the word. Think about that Netflix show "Nobody Wants This," everybody I know was talking about it. But one episode of the second season was enough and if it ever came up in conversation thereafter everybody said how bad it was. Too many in power are operating under the old paradigm. Build the brand and milk it. As if when people love it once, they'll be forever stuck to it. But music and TV are not toothpaste. People think about the music they listen to and the TV they watch. I research before I spend time on a series... That's how much I don't want to waste my time! As for the good reviews of the second iterations of series... Like critics aren't up their own a**es. The train has already left the station. Stop seeing it as a crisis and get into the mind-set of the younger generation. We see this in all walks of life. The youngsters are digitally native and the oldsters can't stop crapping on the way they're living their lives. But the bottom line is what's going on on their smartphone is tailored to them, that's what the vaunted TikTok algorithm is all about. Youngsters are living in the moment, they know how fast culture moves, they do their best to ride the serpent. Oldsters? They'll tell you to listen to an entire album and render an opinion when the truth is youngsters will press play and if it doesn't resonate with them immediately, they're done, oftentimes forever! Now if multiple friends tell them to go back... Yes, we are living in a Tower of Babel society. But don't deny it. What happens next? Is there consolidation, are their anointed projects, or is it every person in their own niche and happy about it. I will say if you truly want to sustain, satisfy the niche, not the general public, because if the niche is happy, they'll tell other people about it, and even if they don't, you've got a hard core. Remember when you didn't have to tour to be successful? How you could make the record at home and it would go big, like Owl City's "Fireflies"? It's just the opposite today. If you want to have a career, if you want to sustain, play live. Stay in the trenches and hone your chops. Because the number of acts that can draw paying customers live is limited, not like the unlimited offerings on Spotify, never mind the seemingly unlimited offerings on Netflix. There are not a thousand bands playing in your town tonight. Maybe just a handful. And if they're good, you'll tell people about them. I know there are fewer places to play. I'm just saying that the script has flipped. This is the best way to get started and to maintain, building a live audience. Because if your success is based on recordings, once the audience has seen the movie, you'd better be able to top what you've already done, and that's difficult. So a lot of the analysis of this decline of Netflix's sophomore seasons of their popular series is being delivered by those inured to the old system. They want negative news about Netflix the same way musicians want negative news about Spotify. They want to return to a past that is never coming back. Get in the shoes of younger generations and deliver great. There's very little great out there. But if you're truly innovative and great, people will find you. Might take a while, but over time you'll be building a career. Remember when an act broke and you went back and bought all the records in their catalog? Today there is no catalog and if there is it's all the same. And, once again, identity is paramount. Warts and all. Be vulnerable. The audience is hungry. Can you deliver what people want? And what is it that they want? That's your job. -- Visit the archive: http://lefsetz.com/wordpress/ -- Listen to the podcast: -iHeart: https://ihr.fm/2Gi5PFj -Apple: https://apple.co/2ndmpvp -- http://www.twitter.com/lefsetz -- If you would like to subscribe to the LefsetzLetter, http://www.lefsetz.com/lists/?p=subscribe&id=1 If you do not want to receive any more LefsetzLetters, http://lefsetz.com/lists/?p=unsubscribe&uid=0eecea7b60b461717065cbde887c8e25 To change your email address http://lefsetz.com/lists/?p=preferences&uid=0eecea7b60b461717065cbde887c8e25
