1
Biden won't be the candidate.
Because he can't win in November.
On Wednesday, the day before the debate, the "Washington Post" said Joe was losing in five of the seven battleground states, the only contests that truly matter in this election. And then Nate Silver released his initial prediction, based on his averaging of the polls, and the headline of his piece was:
"The presidential election isn't a toss-up - As our model launches, either Biden or Trump could easily win — but the odds are in the ex-president's favor."" https://t.ly/nLelB
But we were assured by the Bidenites that everything was copacetic, that in the end people would wake up and Biden would win, after all, who'd want another Trump presidency?
And then came the debate.
The week long run-up bothered me. That's the benefit of getting old, you ignore the hype and wait for the event. Not that I expected the event to move the needle, but then it started.
This is why you play the game. This is why life is worth living. Because despite prognostications, you never know what will happen in the future, NEVER! But we haven't seen an upset of this magnitude since 1969 and Super Bowl III, when the Jets beat the Colts, who were favored by 19.5 points. But please don't use this spread as a reason to believe Biden will win, Joe Namath was young, if not quite spry, his knees were not in the greatest of shape, whereas Joe Biden is old.
There, I said it. Joe Biden is too old.
The Democrats are the worst offenders here. And the backlash is deafening. Everybody can do the job. We need to let handicapped people play in the NBA. What ever happened to the best person for the job?
But for the best analysis, I refer you to Nate Silver once again:
"Joe Biden Should Drop Out - Denying Joe Biden's decline has put the Democrats in a terrible position": https://t.ly/vrKAy
Now the reason you should read this second article is it's a statistical analysis of aging and dying. What is lost and when. Baseball has been revolutionized by statistics, just read Michael Lewis's "Moneyball," and that was published back in 2003! That's right, our entire world is now run by data, but when it comes to the DNC? It's irrelevant.
Bottom line...if Joe Biden finishes a second term he'll be 86. Stop and think about that. Do you really want an 86 year old chief executive? There are only two people older in the Fortune 500, Warren Buffett and Roger Penske, and they control their companies: https://t.ly/0fZqp The thought of having someone of that age in the top job is horrifying in business. But in politics?
Bottom line is decline happens faster as you age, and your odds of dying increase. It's not linear. So you're asking the public at large to elect someone who may not even be alive in four years, who may exhibit mental decline? And, of course, there are nonagenarians with perfect cognitive abilities, but my mother started repeating herself in her mid-eighties. As time went on, she was not even in charge of her checkbook, because as you age, the mind falters.
These are facts, but if you don't believe them, we can just brush them aside. Because we saw Joe Biden on Thursday night and it was perfectly clear that the aging process, the decline, had not only begun, but there was further attrition.
And everybody freaked out.
I don't know about you. But from the very first moment Joe spoke I winced, audibly. I just couldn't believe it. His stiff walk on stage maybe I could let pass, but not his performance. And then my text messages started to go wild. People were weighing in from across the country. People who've never communicated with me regarding politics, they were absolutely stunned, they could not believe their eyes, they felt there was no chance Biden could win.
But for the last forty eight hours we've been told to deny our eyes, not to believe what we saw, and now the Democrats are just as bad as the Republicans, who keep telling us January 6th was a picnic, a romp in the park. But I saw both of these events in real time with my own eyes!
No wonder no one believes in politics anymore.
But it gets worse.
But first there was a dose of reality.
As soon as the debate was over, I switched to MSNBC, where I expected the usual spin, pro-Biden. But just the opposite took place. Rachel Maddow spoke first, and her words were halting. She didn't paint a positive picture, not whatsoever, what she'd seen was an unmitigated disaster.
And then Nicole Wallace echoed her statements. And then Joy Reid, who said she'd been in contact with the Democrats during the debate, that her phone had been blowing up. Rachel asked Joy if these were just citizens, or true insiders with power. Joy said the latter.
Then they threw it to Alex Wagner, on the floor of the debate. It was like a family member had died.
And then back to Lawrence O'Donnell in the studio, who started talking about how bad Trump was.
This is what happens when you're too inside, you can't see the game. This debate ended up not being about substance, but PERCEPTION! It didn't matter a whit what either candidate said, first and foremost because you often couldn't even hear Biden, never mind understand him. His voice was not only raspy, but soft. Softer than anybody in attendance.
As for those who said Biden got better and Trump worse at the end... You can argue such, but you can't get over the initial perception, that Biden was old and had lost a step.
And then Chris Hayes echoed Rachel and Nicole and Joy and Alex.
I've never seen this before. There was no spin. Just acknowledgement of what a disaster this was.
2
And then I drove to the Hollywood Bowl to see Chris Stapleton, and constantly refreshed my phone for analysis. The L.A. "Times" had none. Proving that when you cut your staff to the bone you pay a price. And the big players didn't instantly go negative, but by time we hit about 10 or 10:30 Thursday night, they had.
It was clear. This was a debacle. Biden was toast.
I get it, I get it. It's a game. You've got to have your ducks in a row before you proceed. You've got to have a plan for the future before you get rid of Joe.
So there was the rally in North Carolina after the debate. All we hear is how firey Joe was. But if you watch the video, when Jill Biden is on the podium, Joe is a deer in the headlights behind, just like he was at the podium the night before.
And speaking of the night before, have you seen the video of the walk-offs? Trump turned tail and strode off the stage. Biden? He had to wait for Jill. Who took his arm, and then had to help him down the tiny little steps.
Maybe you didn't see it. But it's all over social media. And the Republicans will make hay of this. And there's no issue of editing, this is raw footage.
And now I have to beat up the DNC. How in the hell did you let this happen? This is the same outfit that is asking us for money for television ads? They've got no viable plan to reach the younger generations who live online, other than paid ads with grandpa Joe asking for money, which are execrable. The DNC's entire plan was to talk about how bad the other guy was. You cannot win if you don't play offense, you've got to put some points on the board. And Biden was in the dugout, on the bench, and when he strode up to the plate... I wouldn't say he choked so much as crumbled.
It doesn't matter if he had a cold, this is much worse than a bad night, this is TRAGIC!
And once again, if you're on the social media the oldsters who say they know better deprecate, you'll see footage of the Vice Presidential debate between Biden and Ryan with Charlie Rose back in 2012. Your jaw will drop. It's a completely different Biden. Talk about losing a step, Biden has lost many.
And all we hear from insiders is their hands are tied. That there's nothing they can do, it's Joe's decision whether to stay or go.
That ain't true in the least. That's the kind of hogwash that gets my dander up. It's very simple...
Let's use the case of Watergate. The Republicans denied, denied and denied, but then they realized it was a lost cause and they went to the White House and told Nixon he had to resign. This is how it always happens, very slowly and then all at once.
Not only can you speak truth to power, you have a lot of tools in your box. You can say you won't introduce any legislation in a second Biden term. That you will block all of his appointments. That you'll vote to defund his travel. This is how you fire someone who won't go, you freeze them out. This is why Al Franken left the Senate, they squeezed him out by telling them they were going to freeze him out if he didn't leave, and he left.
As for Biden defying this... Why? He's the only one who can beat Trump? Anybody who saw the debate who thinks that Biden can still defeat Trump is delusional.
As for Trump... He lied his ass off. But until deep into the debate there were no histrionics. He observed the time limits. He spoke slowly. Trump rose to the challenge, Biden did not. If anybody looked Presidential on stage, it was Trump.
3
You only have one job now, to stop supporting Joe Biden for President. It's a losing cause.
I've been saying Joe Biden is too old for nearly a year. And whenever I do, I lose hundreds of subscribers. People can't handle the truth. They want to argue with me. Thursday night taught me a lesson, to stick to my guns. Tribalism and groupthink got us into this mess. And it ain't gonna get us out.
The world has changed and the Democrats have not.
So who is going to run? IT ALMOST DOESN'T MATTER!
I used to believe in Gavin Newsom, but the right has done such a good job of defining him, negatively, that he's no longer that strong a candidate. Polis and Pritzker are good, but not well-known. It's very simple, Gretchen Whitmer for President and Josh Shapiro for Vice President. Not only are they both competent, they've got higher profiles than Polis and Pritzker. And even better, they're governors of two battleground states. Time to fight fire with fire.
As for Kamala Harris... She's in a worse situation than Newsom. The Republicans have defined her so negatively that even Democrats have accepted this characterization. Once again, perception is everything, EVERYTHING! As for those saying getting rid of Harris will alienate Black voters and women... If everybody wanted Harris so much, why did she do so poorly in the 2020 primaries, never mind the debates.
But one thing is for sure, it can't be Joe. Anyone but Joe.
And in truth the hoi polloi might be donating since the debate, but the deep pockets, the big spenders, are now holding back. Not only do they feel duped, they want to wait until the dust settles.
Biden is bloviating, but everybody knows it's over. And they have to ensure that this is the case. Sooner rather than later.
I know, I know, you can't get rid of Joe without a plan. So you've got to kill a bit of time. But I'm sick and tired of all these loyal soldiers defending Biden. Chris Matthews on Bill Maher last night made me puke. And you might not even subscribe to HBO, but in this overloaded fragmented world "Real Time" is where many people get their news. And to see this guy be noncommittal...
But it's not only Matthews, it's seemingly everybody with a profile. No one can have a backbone, no one can speak the truth? We saw the debate with our own two eyes, over fifty million of us, and you're going to tell us we can't believe what we saw? This was not a bad night. This was evidence of someone who needs to retire. Pronto. With a bit of his dignity intact.
And don't compare 2024 with 1968. It's completely different. The story then was Vietnam. There is no Vietnam today, young people are not afraid of being sent overseas to be killed in a fruitless war. As for Israel/Gaza... Can we stop letting the tail wag the dog? Can we stop letting the minority control the majority? It's a very few people protesting. You're not supposed to be afraid, you're supposed to lead.
And I'm old enough to remember when JFK told us "Ask not what your country can do for you...ask what you can do for your country." We're dying to help. But enough with our money, enough with knocking on doors. First and foremost we have to believe in the cause, that's what motivates us. And it's time to turn around this selfish nation, make it more compassionate. That's what most people want. You can win by leading with kindness.
Not that the ultimate Democratic candidate needs to fight with one hand behind their back, when they go low we need to punch them right down, correct their falsehoods.
4
I had no intention of writing about the debate. I saw no upside. And now it was clear everything I said about Biden's age was right. Period. I don't believe in victory laps like Kara Swisher and Bill Maher, telling you I was right. You followed me, you know.
But what has happened since... Biden doubling-down, his seconds building him up, that just pisses me off. I saw the truth with my own eyes and now people are telling me to just believe... Well that hasn't worked out so far. And let me reinforce, if Biden is re-elected he'll finish his term at 86! Divorce it from Biden. Just think about that. Do you want an 86 year old running ANYTHING? Sure, oldsters have accumulated wisdom, which we rarely listen to, never mind respect in America. But you need someone fit, quick, on their toes to be the President, and that ain't Joe.
Just gimme some truth. But there are no John Lennons plying the boards these days, everybody thinks about the team, the bucks first. But the team is not always right. They were wrong about Biden...
NEXT!
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Saturday, 29 June 2024
Friday, 28 June 2024
Biden-SiriusXM This Week
Tune in Saturday June 29th to Faction Talk, channel 103, at 4 PM East, 1 PM West.
Phone #: 844-686-5863
Twitter: @lefsetz
If you miss the episode, you can hear it on demand on the SiriusXM app. Search: Lefsetz
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Chris Stapleton At The Hollywood Bowl
It was like 1972.
And I mean that in a good way. I pictured myself bellied up to the bar, drinking a beer while a band played on the short riser in the corner. Members dressed identically to how they were on the street just minutes before, the music, the mood being everything, the trappings irrelevant.
There was a giant horizontal hi-def screen above the performers, a stage design I hadn't seen previously, but it was just a little out of sync with the performers, which was disconcerting, however I was very close, did it matter to those in the back? Probably not. Then again, they have screens further back at the Bowl now.
Stapleton is the antidote to everything everybody complains about in today's music world. You know, the generic, machine-made songs with vapid lyrics that could be written by a ten year old and make you wince, or are fantasy cartoons, no different from a high concept movie, at least "The Harder They Come" was somewhat believable, I mean Jamaica had a reputation for violence.
So what brings people to see Chris Stapleton?
The songs. Period. Showing their power. You don't need anything else if you have those.
But the big surprise was Stapleton's guitar-playing, it's all about style, not speed, Lowell George taught us this. Your axe is just a starting point, everybody can have a unique voice, assuming they choose to. This show could inspire anybody to play, the power of a guitar is undeniable, in a way a synth never can be. Furthermore, there were a lot of guitars, it seems like each song demanded a new one, and there was even a change in the middle of a song. That's the luxury of being a superstar, you can live out your fantasy, instead of playing the same damn instrument the whole night, like when you're coming up. And I was especially inspired by Chris's playing of a Jazzmaster, which Elvis Costello made his bones on, but everybody else pooh-poohed in favor of the Stratocaster. (And let's not forget the Gretsch.)
And Stapleton is forty six years old. The antithesis of what we're told sells. But that's because he's so good, so authentic. Chris paid his dues, and he knows it. He kvells at times, it's rewarding, thrilled that he's on stage singing his songs, especially when he's in duet with his wife Morgane.
Unlike the four or five member bar bands, there were seven people on stage. You got a pedal steel player. Another guitarist who oftentimes played an acoustic. And a keyboard/organ player. No one was showing off, but they were locked in as an ensemble, which is the opposite of what we see so often, people showing off, like I said, the music was the star.
Chris talked a bit, but not much. But otherwise this was very similar to a Springsteen show. Chris is singing his inner truth, the angst is evidenced, it's the heart of America. For all the red/blue divide b.s., there's a part of everybody who can connect with Stapleton and his music, because we're all people, human beings at the core.
Now as the show progressed, it left the bar, it had more of the characteristic of a concert, the average bar band doesn't get to play this long, doesn't have well-known originals. But Stapleton played for two hours and it didn't drag. (And unlike so many performers Stapleton didn't stretch out the numbers ad infinitum, he played them at the length of the records, and therefore he could play twenty three songs.)
And people knew the material. Singing along at times. These were fans, there were no casual users in attendance, it's not like they'd heard one Stapleton number and needed to see the flavor of the moment, everybody there was very familiar with Stapleton and his music (you can ask me how I know, but you can feel it, whether people are paying attention, whether they sing along, whether they're on their phones...or not).
This is rock and roll. Not the stuff you hear on Active Rock. That's a niche product. Made for a minority. It tends to be hard, aggressive, and there's a market for that, but it's not very broad. The guitar tech tested the sound playing AC/DC, and in truth AC/DC is an American band, even though they're from Down Under. Everybody knows them, everybody knows their music, credit Mutt Lange, and maybe we need to credit Dave Cobb when it comes to Stapleton, but the formula WORKS!
Now in truth no one is universal these days. It's all about your trench, your niche, and how wide it is. You might not be passionate about Stapleton and what he does, but his fans certainly are, a mix of women and men, I cased the joint, about a 50/50 ratio, and there were no tweens there, no one brought their kids to the show, this was a party, an experience for those old enough to drink, who know what adult life is all about, and it's complicated and difficult, and music when done right is a release.
Stapleton sets your mind free. You see no artifice, just a lot of hard work.
And when I exited the building I saw the trucks. They were all painted on the side, with ads for Traveller Whiskey. And I didn't see it as a sell-out, or a brand extension, it reminded me of what once was, when the music was magic, when you needed to get closer, when you had to know everything about it, when your deepest desire was to be part of the touring party yourself, having an experience you can't get anywhere else.
You don't sit (or stand!) listening to Chris Stapleton and judge him negatively, saying you could do that yourself, listening for the hard drives, the triggered effects, it's soulful, it resonates in a way that you know but rarely experience anymore. This is what the dinosaurs used to deliver. But Stapleton is not calcified, he's making new music, he's having success, he's the most respected performer in Nashville, wins all the awards, everybody wishes they could do it his way, throw off the constraints of Music Row and do it their way, but they're too afraid, they're worried about their careers more than their music.
I didn't grow up in Kentucky. Driven through a couple of times, stopped once, but when it comes to the south, I'm a voyeur. But for some reason the south is known for the most authentic fiction and in many cases the most authentic music. You can do it without airs, even though some do. But if you strip it down and still have appeal, you're a star. Like Johnny Cash, like Willie Nelson, they're beacons, but most can't see the light.
I'm not telling you to see Stapleton if you hate this music, if there are not enough beats per minute for you. But if you lived through the pre-internet era, when you had to leave the house for action, when it didn't come through to you at home, when you had to go to the bar to meet people, to have a chance at love, Stapleton's show will bring it all back, without sounding ancient, but totally present. When you strip it all down it's about playing and songs, you need nothing more, and when you get it right anybody can feel it, anybody can see it.
You'd think we'd have more Chris Stapletons. But we don't. Most people want success fast, or they want to take another direction, they're not all-in. And of those who are all-in, many just don't have the talent, the je ne sais quoi that separates the stars from the rest of us. You know it when you hear it.
And I heard it last night.
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And I mean that in a good way. I pictured myself bellied up to the bar, drinking a beer while a band played on the short riser in the corner. Members dressed identically to how they were on the street just minutes before, the music, the mood being everything, the trappings irrelevant.
There was a giant horizontal hi-def screen above the performers, a stage design I hadn't seen previously, but it was just a little out of sync with the performers, which was disconcerting, however I was very close, did it matter to those in the back? Probably not. Then again, they have screens further back at the Bowl now.
Stapleton is the antidote to everything everybody complains about in today's music world. You know, the generic, machine-made songs with vapid lyrics that could be written by a ten year old and make you wince, or are fantasy cartoons, no different from a high concept movie, at least "The Harder They Come" was somewhat believable, I mean Jamaica had a reputation for violence.
So what brings people to see Chris Stapleton?
The songs. Period. Showing their power. You don't need anything else if you have those.
But the big surprise was Stapleton's guitar-playing, it's all about style, not speed, Lowell George taught us this. Your axe is just a starting point, everybody can have a unique voice, assuming they choose to. This show could inspire anybody to play, the power of a guitar is undeniable, in a way a synth never can be. Furthermore, there were a lot of guitars, it seems like each song demanded a new one, and there was even a change in the middle of a song. That's the luxury of being a superstar, you can live out your fantasy, instead of playing the same damn instrument the whole night, like when you're coming up. And I was especially inspired by Chris's playing of a Jazzmaster, which Elvis Costello made his bones on, but everybody else pooh-poohed in favor of the Stratocaster. (And let's not forget the Gretsch.)
And Stapleton is forty six years old. The antithesis of what we're told sells. But that's because he's so good, so authentic. Chris paid his dues, and he knows it. He kvells at times, it's rewarding, thrilled that he's on stage singing his songs, especially when he's in duet with his wife Morgane.
Unlike the four or five member bar bands, there were seven people on stage. You got a pedal steel player. Another guitarist who oftentimes played an acoustic. And a keyboard/organ player. No one was showing off, but they were locked in as an ensemble, which is the opposite of what we see so often, people showing off, like I said, the music was the star.
Chris talked a bit, but not much. But otherwise this was very similar to a Springsteen show. Chris is singing his inner truth, the angst is evidenced, it's the heart of America. For all the red/blue divide b.s., there's a part of everybody who can connect with Stapleton and his music, because we're all people, human beings at the core.
Now as the show progressed, it left the bar, it had more of the characteristic of a concert, the average bar band doesn't get to play this long, doesn't have well-known originals. But Stapleton played for two hours and it didn't drag. (And unlike so many performers Stapleton didn't stretch out the numbers ad infinitum, he played them at the length of the records, and therefore he could play twenty three songs.)
And people knew the material. Singing along at times. These were fans, there were no casual users in attendance, it's not like they'd heard one Stapleton number and needed to see the flavor of the moment, everybody there was very familiar with Stapleton and his music (you can ask me how I know, but you can feel it, whether people are paying attention, whether they sing along, whether they're on their phones...or not).
This is rock and roll. Not the stuff you hear on Active Rock. That's a niche product. Made for a minority. It tends to be hard, aggressive, and there's a market for that, but it's not very broad. The guitar tech tested the sound playing AC/DC, and in truth AC/DC is an American band, even though they're from Down Under. Everybody knows them, everybody knows their music, credit Mutt Lange, and maybe we need to credit Dave Cobb when it comes to Stapleton, but the formula WORKS!
Now in truth no one is universal these days. It's all about your trench, your niche, and how wide it is. You might not be passionate about Stapleton and what he does, but his fans certainly are, a mix of women and men, I cased the joint, about a 50/50 ratio, and there were no tweens there, no one brought their kids to the show, this was a party, an experience for those old enough to drink, who know what adult life is all about, and it's complicated and difficult, and music when done right is a release.
Stapleton sets your mind free. You see no artifice, just a lot of hard work.
And when I exited the building I saw the trucks. They were all painted on the side, with ads for Traveller Whiskey. And I didn't see it as a sell-out, or a brand extension, it reminded me of what once was, when the music was magic, when you needed to get closer, when you had to know everything about it, when your deepest desire was to be part of the touring party yourself, having an experience you can't get anywhere else.
You don't sit (or stand!) listening to Chris Stapleton and judge him negatively, saying you could do that yourself, listening for the hard drives, the triggered effects, it's soulful, it resonates in a way that you know but rarely experience anymore. This is what the dinosaurs used to deliver. But Stapleton is not calcified, he's making new music, he's having success, he's the most respected performer in Nashville, wins all the awards, everybody wishes they could do it his way, throw off the constraints of Music Row and do it their way, but they're too afraid, they're worried about their careers more than their music.
I didn't grow up in Kentucky. Driven through a couple of times, stopped once, but when it comes to the south, I'm a voyeur. But for some reason the south is known for the most authentic fiction and in many cases the most authentic music. You can do it without airs, even though some do. But if you strip it down and still have appeal, you're a star. Like Johnny Cash, like Willie Nelson, they're beacons, but most can't see the light.
I'm not telling you to see Stapleton if you hate this music, if there are not enough beats per minute for you. But if you lived through the pre-internet era, when you had to leave the house for action, when it didn't come through to you at home, when you had to go to the bar to meet people, to have a chance at love, Stapleton's show will bring it all back, without sounding ancient, but totally present. When you strip it all down it's about playing and songs, you need nothing more, and when you get it right anybody can feel it, anybody can see it.
You'd think we'd have more Chris Stapletons. But we don't. Most people want success fast, or they want to take another direction, they're not all-in. And of those who are all-in, many just don't have the talent, the je ne sais quoi that separates the stars from the rest of us. You know it when you hear it.
And I heard it last night.
--
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Listen to the podcast:
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Thursday, 27 June 2024
Snapshot
NOTHING LASTS
As Rob Thomas told me, it used to be a tiny funnel, now it's a colander. You pour your music in and it slips right through. All the hoopla of yore that had an impact no longer does. Release parties, press...all the buildup means nothing. Except if you're a superstar, and even then you can put out a new track and it can instantly disappear. The game has changed. You're in it for the long haul. Your customers are your fans. Be in constant contact with them. You have to be in play to get lucky. Don't listen to the dinosaurs telling you how it used to be, that era is gone forever. You need more product, more frequently. To satiate the hard core fans and to have more opportunities to get lucky. It's nearly impossible to manipulate the system today, the key is to keep playing and if you're good enough, you'll grow, however slowly. If you have a moment of impact, expect it to decay faster than ever before. We live in a hit and run economy. And it's not because today's younger generations have short attention spans, but incredible sh*t detectors, which is why they can stream a TV show for five hours straight but skip your track after five seconds. You can go down the road less taken, don't worry about creating hooks in early in the song, be focused on the art, but then you're either good enough to make it, or you'll be wandering into the wilderness and probably die. Revel in your momentary victories, but get back to work tomorrow. What is important in the morning is oftentimes forgotten in the afternoon. Yes, you are trying to create lasting music, but that comes down to the music itself, not the game. And if you think terrestrial radio is the end all and be all, you must be in the broadcasting business, or be a Boomer or Gen-X'er working at the label. Today's active music listeners discover music elsewhere. You need to have an online strategy first, always.
TECHNOLOGY
Don't be afraid. However, the channel is clouded with left behind boomers and young wannabes. We are never going backward, we are never returning to the past. Don't lament the past days when people would listen to a record and do nothing else, when they'd listen to the whole thing as opposed to cherry-picking singles. Your hard core fans will stream everything you've got, which is why when you go to see Zach Bryan they know every song, never mind Noah Kahan, never mind Taylor Swift. These artists mean so much to their followers that they're all in. But never forget, Taylor Swift started in a different era, originally in country music in the aughts, she crossed over to pop a decade ago, the landscape has changed since then. Think narrow and then expand, don't go broad and then try to create dedicated fans. We are no longer in the big tent business, but the slice of population business. Don't worry about reaching everyone, but just some. And early adopters will be there forever as long as you don't try to go wide and play to the masses too early. But if you think AI is the devil, you also thought drum machines were the devil. And Spotify the devil. And what do we know? They're all here to stay, having eviscerated past models. Use them in new, creative ways, don't lament the old days. The future only goes in one direction, forward. Sure, there's a business in horses, like there's a business in vinyl, but it's de minimis, a gnat on the ass of the aforementioned horse. Vinyl is about money, pure and simple. It's a souvenir. Despite all the hoopla, most people are not listening. And if they are, it's on crappy systems. Streaming is where it's at.
SPOTIFY IS YOUR FRIEND
If you complain about Spotify, the joke is on you. Sure, writers should be paid more. Sure, the bundle concept needs to be addressed. But the bottom line is streaming pays about 70% to rights holders and if you're not making bank either the label is taking most of the money or no one is listening. The model has changed. Don't think about selling things, but access, streams, lifelong fans. Do you still buy DVDs? No, because this material is available on demand, whenever you want it (don't e-mail me and tell me what is unavailable, you're a nitpicker and missing the point). Music is on demand, ownership is so far in the rearview mirror that youngsters don't even think about it. As for the aforementioned Swift selling dozens of versions of her new album... She's a pop star, she won't be at her peak forever, this might generate momentary revenue, but it ultimately alienates fans. You're in bed with your fans. Treat them like brothers and sisters. Do not rip them off and always make them primary. Hits are evanescent, fans are forever. You want fans. And if you're a rock band, tell all your fans to stream. That's where the revenue is. If you're a star there's a ton of money to be made on streaming, but first and foremost see it as a low barrier opportunity for people to hear your music. You don't want any barriers between you and a potential fan, monetization always comes last, remember that.
As Rob Thomas told me, it used to be a tiny funnel, now it's a colander. You pour your music in and it slips right through. All the hoopla of yore that had an impact no longer does. Release parties, press...all the buildup means nothing. Except if you're a superstar, and even then you can put out a new track and it can instantly disappear. The game has changed. You're in it for the long haul. Your customers are your fans. Be in constant contact with them. You have to be in play to get lucky. Don't listen to the dinosaurs telling you how it used to be, that era is gone forever. You need more product, more frequently. To satiate the hard core fans and to have more opportunities to get lucky. It's nearly impossible to manipulate the system today, the key is to keep playing and if you're good enough, you'll grow, however slowly. If you have a moment of impact, expect it to decay faster than ever before. We live in a hit and run economy. And it's not because today's younger generations have short attention spans, but incredible sh*t detectors, which is why they can stream a TV show for five hours straight but skip your track after five seconds. You can go down the road less taken, don't worry about creating hooks in early in the song, be focused on the art, but then you're either good enough to make it, or you'll be wandering into the wilderness and probably die. Revel in your momentary victories, but get back to work tomorrow. What is important in the morning is oftentimes forgotten in the afternoon. Yes, you are trying to create lasting music, but that comes down to the music itself, not the game. And if you think terrestrial radio is the end all and be all, you must be in the broadcasting business, or be a Boomer or Gen-X'er working at the label. Today's active music listeners discover music elsewhere. You need to have an online strategy first, always.
TECHNOLOGY
Don't be afraid. However, the channel is clouded with left behind boomers and young wannabes. We are never going backward, we are never returning to the past. Don't lament the past days when people would listen to a record and do nothing else, when they'd listen to the whole thing as opposed to cherry-picking singles. Your hard core fans will stream everything you've got, which is why when you go to see Zach Bryan they know every song, never mind Noah Kahan, never mind Taylor Swift. These artists mean so much to their followers that they're all in. But never forget, Taylor Swift started in a different era, originally in country music in the aughts, she crossed over to pop a decade ago, the landscape has changed since then. Think narrow and then expand, don't go broad and then try to create dedicated fans. We are no longer in the big tent business, but the slice of population business. Don't worry about reaching everyone, but just some. And early adopters will be there forever as long as you don't try to go wide and play to the masses too early. But if you think AI is the devil, you also thought drum machines were the devil. And Spotify the devil. And what do we know? They're all here to stay, having eviscerated past models. Use them in new, creative ways, don't lament the old days. The future only goes in one direction, forward. Sure, there's a business in horses, like there's a business in vinyl, but it's de minimis, a gnat on the ass of the aforementioned horse. Vinyl is about money, pure and simple. It's a souvenir. Despite all the hoopla, most people are not listening. And if they are, it's on crappy systems. Streaming is where it's at.
SPOTIFY IS YOUR FRIEND
If you complain about Spotify, the joke is on you. Sure, writers should be paid more. Sure, the bundle concept needs to be addressed. But the bottom line is streaming pays about 70% to rights holders and if you're not making bank either the label is taking most of the money or no one is listening. The model has changed. Don't think about selling things, but access, streams, lifelong fans. Do you still buy DVDs? No, because this material is available on demand, whenever you want it (don't e-mail me and tell me what is unavailable, you're a nitpicker and missing the point). Music is on demand, ownership is so far in the rearview mirror that youngsters don't even think about it. As for the aforementioned Swift selling dozens of versions of her new album... She's a pop star, she won't be at her peak forever, this might generate momentary revenue, but it ultimately alienates fans. You're in bed with your fans. Treat them like brothers and sisters. Do not rip them off and always make them primary. Hits are evanescent, fans are forever. You want fans. And if you're a rock band, tell all your fans to stream. That's where the revenue is. If you're a star there's a ton of money to be made on streaming, but first and foremost see it as a low barrier opportunity for people to hear your music. You don't want any barriers between you and a potential fan, monetization always comes last, remember that.
--
Visit the archive: http://lefsetz.com/wordpress/
--
Listen to the podcast:
-iHeart: https://ihr.fm/2Gi5PFj
-Apple: https://apple.co/2ndmpvp
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Michael Shrieve-This Week's Podcast
Michael Shrieve was the drummer on the first five Santana albums, you know him from the Woodstock movie! Michael goes deep into all of those records, as well as his work with Stomu Yamashta, Automatic Man and more!
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/michael-shrieve/id1316200737?i=1000660419605
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/6OiSmiGLE1P8x5CmwMY3Mg?si=Bqp60A7vRUSUSBuFO3MFwg
Amazon: https://music.amazon.com/podcasts/9ff4fb19-54d4-41ae-ae7a-8a6f8d3dafa8/episodes/22466be0-be99-4091-9638-1689294b2b35/the-bob-lefsetz-podcast-michael-shrieve
iHeart: https://www.iheart.com/podcast/1119-the-bob-lefsetz-podcast-30806836/episode/michael-shrieve-189697021/?cmp=web_share&embed=true
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Visit the archive: http://lefsetz.com/wordpress/
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Listen to the podcast:
-iHeart: https://ihr.fm/2Gi5PFj
-Apple: https://apple.co/2ndmpvp
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Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/michael-shrieve/id1316200737?i=1000660419605
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/6OiSmiGLE1P8x5CmwMY3Mg?si=Bqp60A7vRUSUSBuFO3MFwg
Amazon: https://music.amazon.com/podcasts/9ff4fb19-54d4-41ae-ae7a-8a6f8d3dafa8/episodes/22466be0-be99-4091-9638-1689294b2b35/the-bob-lefsetz-podcast-michael-shrieve
iHeart: https://www.iheart.com/podcast/1119-the-bob-lefsetz-podcast-30806836/episode/michael-shrieve-189697021/?cmp=web_share&embed=true
--
Visit the archive: http://lefsetz.com/wordpress/
--
Listen to the podcast:
-iHeart: https://ihr.fm/2Gi5PFj
-Apple: https://apple.co/2ndmpvp
--
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Wednesday, 26 June 2024
Hawk Tuah
Are you a meme or are you a musician?
If you're willing to do anything for attention is it working for you, or against you?
The bifurcation began with the split of AM and FM in the sixties. Stations could no longer simulcast on FM what they were broadcasting on AM. As a result we got underground FM radio and album rock. Which ruled until there was a consolidation and corporate rock and disco emerged. Why did disco emerge? Rock did not encompass all demos, all interests, all desires, and not only does nature abhor a vacuum, people want that which speaks to them.
Then music was in the doldrums until MTV created a monoculture in 1981, and that has been the paradigm the major labels and the major media have operated under ever since, even though it's in the rearview mirror, has been for years.
In other words, mainstream music, Top Forty music, the Spotify Top 50, works for fewer listeners than ever before. This is what consolidation has wrought. Fewer major labels, fewer mainstream news outlets...
But the bucket has been leaking for decades. Now there are a zillion news sources, some accurate, some inaccurate, some way ahead of the mainstream, some completely delusional.
If you want to know about it first, you find out about it online. A news story has to work its way up to the major media. And the big outlets can't cover everything, while many are consolidating. If you're depending on the L.A. "Times" to know what is going on in the world, you don't know much.
And the same thing is happening in music.
But all we've got is the tsunami of hype over the Spotify Top 50 when most of the listening, STATISTICALLY most of the listening, is going elsewhere.
And what is everybody's desire?
To go viral. When they're not complaining about making little money.
As with everything in life, don't listen to the hubbub. It tends to be a very few with an agenda.
In other words, if you're a musician, if you're not playing the game, what are your odds of future success? GIGANTIC!
Let me be clear, only a very few acts will go on to stardom. That's the way it's always been. Only a few acts deserve said stardom and the public only has so much bandwidth. But more acts than ever can make a living making music, or at least have a revenue stream while they keep their day jobs (many acts in the so-called pre-internet heyday kept their day jobs even after they got deals and released a record).
But too many are inured to the old monoculture game, to their detriment.
The major labels are doing it all wrong, they need to employ the Netflix model. More and more product that doesn't appeal to everybody, but to niches. The goal is to satisfy a niche so it doesn't cancel a subscription. And sure, there's no music subscription (other than distributors like Spotify, et al), but in truth a subscription in music is fandom. How can you bond with your audience to the point they'll keep you alive, see your shows, buy your merch and spread the word.
You don't want to do anything uncharacteristic. Your fans have a perception of you. Go against it at your peril. Wait for people to come to you, don't sell out for quick success.
And stop trying to go viral. What we've found is viral is unpredictable, it can rarely be gamed. If you're lucky you might do something that goes viral, but odds are you'll never go viral in a way that makes you well-known overnight, like the Hawk Tuah girl. But how long is the Hawk Tuah girl's fame going to last? Not through the summer. Not through July. Maybe not even through June!
And maybe you've got no idea who the Hawk Tuah girl is. If this is so, you're a passive consumer. You come last in the music business food chain. But even more this proves how even if you go viral, you don't reach everybody. It's a fool's errand, and it doesn't last.
Like the work of the social media influencers. They've got to create each and every day, otherwise people move on. That is not the job of the musician.
I'm not saying you don't have to release a steady stream of product, I'm not saying you don't have to have an online presence...
Tom Rush has a Patreon wherein he does a live show every week, for about fifteen minutes, usually with another act, sometimes famous, sometimes not. And ten days ago he featured this guy Brendan Cleary. I'm jaded, but I know it when I hear it. This guy had a great voice, interesting lyrics and good changes. But almost no online presence, not even a website. I couldn't easily check out more of his work, someone else was operating under the same name, I gave up. I don't even know if the rest of his tunes are as good, I can't spread the word. Don't operate with one hand behind your back, don't hate the internet so much that you stay off it.
So now is the time to follow your muse, to do something different. And odds are it will take a very long time to resonate with the public. Are you in it for the money or the music? Are you willing to sacrifice everything to make it? Marriage, kids, home ownership, straight career? If not, you should give up now, it's just not worth it, it takes all of your effort with no fallback position to break through. And never forget, the audience is the ultimate arbiter, and you can't make people listen to your music, no way.
In other words, music is evolving. Even though those in control of recordings keep telling you otherwise. Just like the major labels hit a slump before the advent of MTV. The major labels are bleeding market share to the independents, and without their catalogs they'd be ripe for disruption.
You are the story. A lucky press article here or there might help you, but promotion is nearly worthless. Like those articles in the mainstream media about people who just released a record. It's akin to a billboard on the Sunset Strip in the sixties, might make you feel good, but it doesn't move the needle.
The only thing that moves the needle these days is your music. Your job is to make it and get it heard. And getting it heard is the toughest job of all. And the way you get it heard is by having fans, not getting it playlisted. Many acts are playlisted, make money, and no one knows their name and they have no career. Playlisting is a sideshow. Don't focus on that. How do you create a fan base and grow that? Stop thinking about the masses. What you've got to know is if you do something great, people will spread the word, because there's very little great out there and everybody is looking for it.
Stop trying to game the system.
Start doing it your way.
Blow our minds musically. If we can't hear it and be taken away, impressed, then it's never going to work. No publicity effort can trump the music today, because there's so much of it. If you're not great, we've got a history of great at our fingertips.
And there is great out there, and in truth it is growing. But it is obscured by all the stories about hit music which means about as much as it did in the heyday of FM, even less.
The game has changed. Sure, read Don Passman's book to learn the ropes, but that's not as important as lessons and rehearsal. And great art is always about ideas. And great ideas without execution are worthless.
It's damn difficult. There is no barrier to entry, you don't need a license to make music. But if you NEED to make music, there's a lot of opportunity today. But walk into the wilderness instead of the mainstream, which tends to rise and fall like a wave on a beach. You want to last.
--
Visit the archive: http://lefsetz.com/wordpress/
--
Listen to the podcast:
-iHeart: https://ihr.fm/2Gi5PFj
-Apple: https://apple.co/2ndmpvp
--
http://www.twitter.com/lefsetz
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If you're willing to do anything for attention is it working for you, or against you?
The bifurcation began with the split of AM and FM in the sixties. Stations could no longer simulcast on FM what they were broadcasting on AM. As a result we got underground FM radio and album rock. Which ruled until there was a consolidation and corporate rock and disco emerged. Why did disco emerge? Rock did not encompass all demos, all interests, all desires, and not only does nature abhor a vacuum, people want that which speaks to them.
Then music was in the doldrums until MTV created a monoculture in 1981, and that has been the paradigm the major labels and the major media have operated under ever since, even though it's in the rearview mirror, has been for years.
In other words, mainstream music, Top Forty music, the Spotify Top 50, works for fewer listeners than ever before. This is what consolidation has wrought. Fewer major labels, fewer mainstream news outlets...
But the bucket has been leaking for decades. Now there are a zillion news sources, some accurate, some inaccurate, some way ahead of the mainstream, some completely delusional.
If you want to know about it first, you find out about it online. A news story has to work its way up to the major media. And the big outlets can't cover everything, while many are consolidating. If you're depending on the L.A. "Times" to know what is going on in the world, you don't know much.
And the same thing is happening in music.
But all we've got is the tsunami of hype over the Spotify Top 50 when most of the listening, STATISTICALLY most of the listening, is going elsewhere.
And what is everybody's desire?
To go viral. When they're not complaining about making little money.
As with everything in life, don't listen to the hubbub. It tends to be a very few with an agenda.
In other words, if you're a musician, if you're not playing the game, what are your odds of future success? GIGANTIC!
Let me be clear, only a very few acts will go on to stardom. That's the way it's always been. Only a few acts deserve said stardom and the public only has so much bandwidth. But more acts than ever can make a living making music, or at least have a revenue stream while they keep their day jobs (many acts in the so-called pre-internet heyday kept their day jobs even after they got deals and released a record).
But too many are inured to the old monoculture game, to their detriment.
The major labels are doing it all wrong, they need to employ the Netflix model. More and more product that doesn't appeal to everybody, but to niches. The goal is to satisfy a niche so it doesn't cancel a subscription. And sure, there's no music subscription (other than distributors like Spotify, et al), but in truth a subscription in music is fandom. How can you bond with your audience to the point they'll keep you alive, see your shows, buy your merch and spread the word.
You don't want to do anything uncharacteristic. Your fans have a perception of you. Go against it at your peril. Wait for people to come to you, don't sell out for quick success.
And stop trying to go viral. What we've found is viral is unpredictable, it can rarely be gamed. If you're lucky you might do something that goes viral, but odds are you'll never go viral in a way that makes you well-known overnight, like the Hawk Tuah girl. But how long is the Hawk Tuah girl's fame going to last? Not through the summer. Not through July. Maybe not even through June!
And maybe you've got no idea who the Hawk Tuah girl is. If this is so, you're a passive consumer. You come last in the music business food chain. But even more this proves how even if you go viral, you don't reach everybody. It's a fool's errand, and it doesn't last.
Like the work of the social media influencers. They've got to create each and every day, otherwise people move on. That is not the job of the musician.
I'm not saying you don't have to release a steady stream of product, I'm not saying you don't have to have an online presence...
Tom Rush has a Patreon wherein he does a live show every week, for about fifteen minutes, usually with another act, sometimes famous, sometimes not. And ten days ago he featured this guy Brendan Cleary. I'm jaded, but I know it when I hear it. This guy had a great voice, interesting lyrics and good changes. But almost no online presence, not even a website. I couldn't easily check out more of his work, someone else was operating under the same name, I gave up. I don't even know if the rest of his tunes are as good, I can't spread the word. Don't operate with one hand behind your back, don't hate the internet so much that you stay off it.
So now is the time to follow your muse, to do something different. And odds are it will take a very long time to resonate with the public. Are you in it for the money or the music? Are you willing to sacrifice everything to make it? Marriage, kids, home ownership, straight career? If not, you should give up now, it's just not worth it, it takes all of your effort with no fallback position to break through. And never forget, the audience is the ultimate arbiter, and you can't make people listen to your music, no way.
In other words, music is evolving. Even though those in control of recordings keep telling you otherwise. Just like the major labels hit a slump before the advent of MTV. The major labels are bleeding market share to the independents, and without their catalogs they'd be ripe for disruption.
You are the story. A lucky press article here or there might help you, but promotion is nearly worthless. Like those articles in the mainstream media about people who just released a record. It's akin to a billboard on the Sunset Strip in the sixties, might make you feel good, but it doesn't move the needle.
The only thing that moves the needle these days is your music. Your job is to make it and get it heard. And getting it heard is the toughest job of all. And the way you get it heard is by having fans, not getting it playlisted. Many acts are playlisted, make money, and no one knows their name and they have no career. Playlisting is a sideshow. Don't focus on that. How do you create a fan base and grow that? Stop thinking about the masses. What you've got to know is if you do something great, people will spread the word, because there's very little great out there and everybody is looking for it.
Stop trying to game the system.
Start doing it your way.
Blow our minds musically. If we can't hear it and be taken away, impressed, then it's never going to work. No publicity effort can trump the music today, because there's so much of it. If you're not great, we've got a history of great at our fingertips.
And there is great out there, and in truth it is growing. But it is obscured by all the stories about hit music which means about as much as it did in the heyday of FM, even less.
The game has changed. Sure, read Don Passman's book to learn the ropes, but that's not as important as lessons and rehearsal. And great art is always about ideas. And great ideas without execution are worthless.
It's damn difficult. There is no barrier to entry, you don't need a license to make music. But if you NEED to make music, there's a lot of opportunity today. But walk into the wilderness instead of the mainstream, which tends to rise and fall like a wave on a beach. You want to last.
--
Visit the archive: http://lefsetz.com/wordpress/
--
Listen to the podcast:
-iHeart: https://ihr.fm/2Gi5PFj
-Apple: https://apple.co/2ndmpvp
--
http://www.twitter.com/lefsetz
--
If you would like to subscribe to the LefsetzLetter,
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Sunday, 23 June 2024
Noah Kahan At The Hollywood Bowl
1
He's the first Gen-Z rock star.
Now what does that mean...
Traditionally, a rock star is someone on a pedestal, someone who you aspire to meet, someone better than you, an icon, a vaunted, untouchable genius.
That is not Noah Kahan. Noah Kahan is just like you and me. Well, to be more specific, he's just like the youngsters who grew up digitally native, who live in the world of social media as opposed to deplore it. They know they will never lose touch with anybody they've ever met. They know there is no place off the grid. And that nobody is any better than anybody else.
Don't mistake the hero worship of Olivia Rodrigo as a modern, Gen-Z paradigm. That's the same as it ever was. Find someone you can anoint, push them ad infinitum in the media, create a tsunami of energy that reaches as many people as possible and then put forth a stage show that is not radically different from the heyday of MTV. It's got to be slick, produced, because that's what the audience wants, right?
Well, maybe it doesn't.
Or maybe there's an audience for that but it's such a hard game to play. To the point where the major labels can't even break a new act.
And along comes Noah Kahan, who is DIFFERENT!
He doesn't look like his press photos, like his album covers. Noah Kahan is a dork sans charisma. And in truth very few people are cool, very few are magnetic, Gen-Z knows we are all in it together. So how do you stand out?
By being yourself. By looking inward. By owning your identity. By not trying to play the game, but inventing your own game.
Noah Kahan is selling radical honesty. When most acts are inherently dishonest. Their public persona is different from their private persona. There are layers of subterfuge, to make them exotic yet palatable to the masses.
Noah Kahan could come down from the stage and sit amongst the audience and there would be no brouhaha. No, scratch that, people would be excited, but my point is he's no different from you and me. And that's a radical change.
Which Gen-Z is wholly familiar with.
Call it influencer culture. Anybody can be a star. But you have to work for it. But that does not make you better than anybody else. It just makes you worthy of attention.
So Noah Kahan tried to play the game as proffered, but it didn't work. But when Covid hit and he started speaking his inner truth, it resonated.
People haven't been speaking their inner truth for decades.
Scratch that, the Spotify Top 50 is not based on inner truth. It's mostly cartoons. Let me tell you about my fabulous life, don't you wish you could hang with me? Hip-hop used to be the story of the streets, that was its draw, its power... But that was warped by expensive lifestyle videos in the late twentieth century, never mind abuse of women and the inclusion of old, offensive tropes that would not die.
As for pop music... It was even worse. It was always vain and vapid. That was its essence. Music blew up in the late sixties and seventies when there were two lanes, AM and FM. AM was for casual listeners, it was a big tent, the songs played to everyone, whereas FM was for those who cared, who were fans, who lived for the music, who ate up the words of acts that didn't even seem to care about them, who were focused mainly on themselves.
Do you have problems?
Well, if you're a man you're probably going to say no. And if you're white or wealthy you're not entitled to them. I mean think of all the starving people in Africa!
Everyone is told to buck up and soldier on. But then why are so many of the best and the brightest committing suicide? Life is not only financially hard, but it's emotionally hard.
Politics is unfathomable. You can't believe in Biden, and if you're attached to Trump you're delusional.
The corporations rip you off.
You feel alone.
So where do you go? MUSIC!
That was the tunes' traditional role. Not only an escape, but a soothing of the soul, an understanding. And that's got nothing to do with brand extensions. A perfume won't soothe your soul, it's external, not internal.
People hunger to be understood, to know someone else gets them, and that's the role Noah Kahan plays.
2
Now the first thing you'll notice is all the fans singing along. Like an extra voice. It's palpable, you can't ignore it. The first time I heard/saw this was with Taylor Swift in the first decade of this century. You see she was speaking to her generation, they needed to own her music, not as in physically own it, but emotionally own it. Someone was speaking to THEM! The anxieties of being fifteen. Of being awkward and uncool. That was her power.
Swift abdicated this role when she stopped writing with Liz Rose and went pop. The focus shifted, it became about world domination, external as opposed to internal.
But Noah Kahan is all internal. He's singing about his life. And he's not settling scores, he's revealing his anxieties, his depression... When he sings about living in Vermont with the same damn few people and nothing to do and being bored... I can identify with that, I've lived in Vermont, I've been where everybody knows your name, and it positively sucks.
And it's not entertainment Kahan is looking for. But something that speaks to his soul. The basic building blocks of life. We all want to be seen. I ask you, when you listen to the Spotify Top 50 do you feel seen? Only if you're someone with a track in the hit parade!
I could go through Noah's show song by song, but the interesting thing is either you're in or you're out, either you're a member of the tribe or you're irrelevant. This also is the modern paradigm. It's not about reaching everybody, but reaching those who care. If you do it right, there are enough who care to keep you alive.
And Kahan got lucky with "Stick Season." This is a classic story, someone down and out, on the edge, digs down deep and tells their personal truth, which they believe only relates to them, and then they find out it's universal.
Now there are acts that only guys go to see. Usually focused on playing, sometimes lyrics from science fiction. But everybody knows the real money comes when you get the girls, the women to attend.
And more than half of the audience was women Friday night. Not that there were no men. But women catch the lyrics first. You think that men lead, that they drive the culture, but it's almost always women. Because they're more sensitive, they're not constantly thinking about where they are on the totem pole.
Women want to marry someone like Noah Kahan. With foibles, who is willing to speak about their troubles and listen to theirs. Sure, a movie star hunk is appealing, a traditional rock star is appealing, but deep inside you know you're never going to fly on a private jet and when you get down to it, how much do you have in common?
Noah Kahan is solidly middle class. He didn't fight his way up from the bottom, and he didn't grow up so rich that he never had any worries.
He signed a record deal when he was eighteen, a dream, right?
Well, Kahan found himself alone in Los Angeles. Truly alone. Doing everything alone. Big man on paper, small man in real life. Have you ever been alone like this? I certainly have. Many people can't tolerate this, which is why they never leave home, never risk, it's just too daunting. But with no risk there's no reward. And in truth, Gen-Z is risking every day. Everybody is a unique individual with a presence online. And what do their elders tell them? Put down the phone! Which would be like telling the teens of yore they couldn't talk on the telephone. There's an emotional generation gap between oldsters and youngsters.
3
So Noah Kahan has a crack band. And he can play pretty well himself.
As for his voice... It ain't gonna win "American Idol" or "The Voice." But his voice is perfect for getting his message across. And that's what it's all about. Music is not a competition. If you're worried about Grammys you've got it wrong. You can't quantify what truly resonates with the public, and if you're successful, that does not mean someone else can't be, this is not a zero sum game.
But what we end up with is tracks written by committee and recorded and produced by the usual suspects. Everybody is trying to be just like everybody else. Which is a death spiral. That's why today's music rings so hollow. There's nothing there to see.
But what Noah Kahan is selling is different. You feel that he knows you. Or you know someone like him. He's not so distant, not in the stratosphere, but here on Earth like the rest of us, one of the teeming masses.
Which leaves one optimistic.
The passion Friday night was akin to the passion of the heyday fifty and sixty years ago. But with a twist. In that Noah Kahan might have been on stage, but there was no gulf between you and him.
And I could cite songs. Do a business analysis of how his duets with famous people enhanced his career. There was some game-playing involved. But it all comes down to that one song, previewed online during Covid, "Stick Season."
Which Kahan uploaded to TikTok, not because he was looking for virality, but because this is how Gen-Z communicates. And in truth it's very hard to manipulate TikTok, if it was easy, it would be dominated by major label priorities, and it's not.
"So I thought that if I piled something good on all my bad
That I could cancel out the darkness I inherited from dad"
All we hear from the oldsters is the young are overmedicated, that they need to get off the drugs and endure the ups and downs, they did.
Yeah, but how well did they do? And the world is a tougher place now. You've got the haves and have-nots, not everybody can afford a Rolex and a Mercedes-Benz.
"No, I am no longer funny 'cause I miss the way you laugh
You once called me forever now you still can't call me back"
They don't call you back. At least pre-Covid you might run into them at school. But now you're home, isolated, alone.
"Oh that'll have to do
My other half was you
I hope this pain's just passing through
But I doubt it"
He's resigned. Maybe there's a flicker of hope. If you haven't had this angst, when you were younger, when you endured your initial breakups, you married your first love or are alone and celibate. This is human nature. But all we've got is dancing queens speaking about fantasy lives.
That is not Noah Kahan.
4
Will we have more Noah Kahans?
We already do, but most are not musicians, they're excoriated online influencers. Sure, some are shilling products for cash, but the essence is honesty, real life, and you'd know that if you were on TikTok, but you're not, you're superior, you know all about it, but you've never experienced it. Maybe you should go on and see the forty and fiftysomethings talking about their dating experiences. People are strange, but now it's not Jim Morrison singing about them, but the hoi polloi testifying on social media.
The game is not hard, but it involves risk. And no one wants risk, everybody wants insurance, which is why so many Ivy League graduates go into finance.
And then in their spare time they listen to Noah Kahan. Because all they've got is their cash, their inner lives are empty, they need someone to speak to them.
You don't have to listen to Noah Kahan, not many more people need to listen to Noah Kahan, he's doing quite well, thank you.
And you might not even get it. Which is fine, when was it expected that everybody got everything?
And if you don't get it you're not a hater, you're just into something different.
But if you were at the show Friday night you'd know that something is happening here.
And it's exactly clear.
--
Visit the archive: http://lefsetz.com/wordpress/
--
Listen to the podcast:
-iHeart: https://ihr.fm/2Gi5PFj
-Apple: https://apple.co/2ndmpvp
--
http://www.twitter.com/lefsetz
--
If you would like to subscribe to the LefsetzLetter,
http://www.lefsetz.com/lists/?p=subscribe&id=1
If you do not want to receive any more LefsetzLetters, http://lefsetz.com/lists/?p=unsubscribe&uid=0eecea7b60b461717065cbde887c8e25
To change your email address http://lefsetz.com/lists/?p=preferences&uid=0eecea7b60b461717065cbde887c8e25
He's the first Gen-Z rock star.
Now what does that mean...
Traditionally, a rock star is someone on a pedestal, someone who you aspire to meet, someone better than you, an icon, a vaunted, untouchable genius.
That is not Noah Kahan. Noah Kahan is just like you and me. Well, to be more specific, he's just like the youngsters who grew up digitally native, who live in the world of social media as opposed to deplore it. They know they will never lose touch with anybody they've ever met. They know there is no place off the grid. And that nobody is any better than anybody else.
Don't mistake the hero worship of Olivia Rodrigo as a modern, Gen-Z paradigm. That's the same as it ever was. Find someone you can anoint, push them ad infinitum in the media, create a tsunami of energy that reaches as many people as possible and then put forth a stage show that is not radically different from the heyday of MTV. It's got to be slick, produced, because that's what the audience wants, right?
Well, maybe it doesn't.
Or maybe there's an audience for that but it's such a hard game to play. To the point where the major labels can't even break a new act.
And along comes Noah Kahan, who is DIFFERENT!
He doesn't look like his press photos, like his album covers. Noah Kahan is a dork sans charisma. And in truth very few people are cool, very few are magnetic, Gen-Z knows we are all in it together. So how do you stand out?
By being yourself. By looking inward. By owning your identity. By not trying to play the game, but inventing your own game.
Noah Kahan is selling radical honesty. When most acts are inherently dishonest. Their public persona is different from their private persona. There are layers of subterfuge, to make them exotic yet palatable to the masses.
Noah Kahan could come down from the stage and sit amongst the audience and there would be no brouhaha. No, scratch that, people would be excited, but my point is he's no different from you and me. And that's a radical change.
Which Gen-Z is wholly familiar with.
Call it influencer culture. Anybody can be a star. But you have to work for it. But that does not make you better than anybody else. It just makes you worthy of attention.
So Noah Kahan tried to play the game as proffered, but it didn't work. But when Covid hit and he started speaking his inner truth, it resonated.
People haven't been speaking their inner truth for decades.
Scratch that, the Spotify Top 50 is not based on inner truth. It's mostly cartoons. Let me tell you about my fabulous life, don't you wish you could hang with me? Hip-hop used to be the story of the streets, that was its draw, its power... But that was warped by expensive lifestyle videos in the late twentieth century, never mind abuse of women and the inclusion of old, offensive tropes that would not die.
As for pop music... It was even worse. It was always vain and vapid. That was its essence. Music blew up in the late sixties and seventies when there were two lanes, AM and FM. AM was for casual listeners, it was a big tent, the songs played to everyone, whereas FM was for those who cared, who were fans, who lived for the music, who ate up the words of acts that didn't even seem to care about them, who were focused mainly on themselves.
Do you have problems?
Well, if you're a man you're probably going to say no. And if you're white or wealthy you're not entitled to them. I mean think of all the starving people in Africa!
Everyone is told to buck up and soldier on. But then why are so many of the best and the brightest committing suicide? Life is not only financially hard, but it's emotionally hard.
Politics is unfathomable. You can't believe in Biden, and if you're attached to Trump you're delusional.
The corporations rip you off.
You feel alone.
So where do you go? MUSIC!
That was the tunes' traditional role. Not only an escape, but a soothing of the soul, an understanding. And that's got nothing to do with brand extensions. A perfume won't soothe your soul, it's external, not internal.
People hunger to be understood, to know someone else gets them, and that's the role Noah Kahan plays.
2
Now the first thing you'll notice is all the fans singing along. Like an extra voice. It's palpable, you can't ignore it. The first time I heard/saw this was with Taylor Swift in the first decade of this century. You see she was speaking to her generation, they needed to own her music, not as in physically own it, but emotionally own it. Someone was speaking to THEM! The anxieties of being fifteen. Of being awkward and uncool. That was her power.
Swift abdicated this role when she stopped writing with Liz Rose and went pop. The focus shifted, it became about world domination, external as opposed to internal.
But Noah Kahan is all internal. He's singing about his life. And he's not settling scores, he's revealing his anxieties, his depression... When he sings about living in Vermont with the same damn few people and nothing to do and being bored... I can identify with that, I've lived in Vermont, I've been where everybody knows your name, and it positively sucks.
And it's not entertainment Kahan is looking for. But something that speaks to his soul. The basic building blocks of life. We all want to be seen. I ask you, when you listen to the Spotify Top 50 do you feel seen? Only if you're someone with a track in the hit parade!
I could go through Noah's show song by song, but the interesting thing is either you're in or you're out, either you're a member of the tribe or you're irrelevant. This also is the modern paradigm. It's not about reaching everybody, but reaching those who care. If you do it right, there are enough who care to keep you alive.
And Kahan got lucky with "Stick Season." This is a classic story, someone down and out, on the edge, digs down deep and tells their personal truth, which they believe only relates to them, and then they find out it's universal.
Now there are acts that only guys go to see. Usually focused on playing, sometimes lyrics from science fiction. But everybody knows the real money comes when you get the girls, the women to attend.
And more than half of the audience was women Friday night. Not that there were no men. But women catch the lyrics first. You think that men lead, that they drive the culture, but it's almost always women. Because they're more sensitive, they're not constantly thinking about where they are on the totem pole.
Women want to marry someone like Noah Kahan. With foibles, who is willing to speak about their troubles and listen to theirs. Sure, a movie star hunk is appealing, a traditional rock star is appealing, but deep inside you know you're never going to fly on a private jet and when you get down to it, how much do you have in common?
Noah Kahan is solidly middle class. He didn't fight his way up from the bottom, and he didn't grow up so rich that he never had any worries.
He signed a record deal when he was eighteen, a dream, right?
Well, Kahan found himself alone in Los Angeles. Truly alone. Doing everything alone. Big man on paper, small man in real life. Have you ever been alone like this? I certainly have. Many people can't tolerate this, which is why they never leave home, never risk, it's just too daunting. But with no risk there's no reward. And in truth, Gen-Z is risking every day. Everybody is a unique individual with a presence online. And what do their elders tell them? Put down the phone! Which would be like telling the teens of yore they couldn't talk on the telephone. There's an emotional generation gap between oldsters and youngsters.
3
So Noah Kahan has a crack band. And he can play pretty well himself.
As for his voice... It ain't gonna win "American Idol" or "The Voice." But his voice is perfect for getting his message across. And that's what it's all about. Music is not a competition. If you're worried about Grammys you've got it wrong. You can't quantify what truly resonates with the public, and if you're successful, that does not mean someone else can't be, this is not a zero sum game.
But what we end up with is tracks written by committee and recorded and produced by the usual suspects. Everybody is trying to be just like everybody else. Which is a death spiral. That's why today's music rings so hollow. There's nothing there to see.
But what Noah Kahan is selling is different. You feel that he knows you. Or you know someone like him. He's not so distant, not in the stratosphere, but here on Earth like the rest of us, one of the teeming masses.
Which leaves one optimistic.
The passion Friday night was akin to the passion of the heyday fifty and sixty years ago. But with a twist. In that Noah Kahan might have been on stage, but there was no gulf between you and him.
And I could cite songs. Do a business analysis of how his duets with famous people enhanced his career. There was some game-playing involved. But it all comes down to that one song, previewed online during Covid, "Stick Season."
Which Kahan uploaded to TikTok, not because he was looking for virality, but because this is how Gen-Z communicates. And in truth it's very hard to manipulate TikTok, if it was easy, it would be dominated by major label priorities, and it's not.
"So I thought that if I piled something good on all my bad
That I could cancel out the darkness I inherited from dad"
All we hear from the oldsters is the young are overmedicated, that they need to get off the drugs and endure the ups and downs, they did.
Yeah, but how well did they do? And the world is a tougher place now. You've got the haves and have-nots, not everybody can afford a Rolex and a Mercedes-Benz.
"No, I am no longer funny 'cause I miss the way you laugh
You once called me forever now you still can't call me back"
They don't call you back. At least pre-Covid you might run into them at school. But now you're home, isolated, alone.
"Oh that'll have to do
My other half was you
I hope this pain's just passing through
But I doubt it"
He's resigned. Maybe there's a flicker of hope. If you haven't had this angst, when you were younger, when you endured your initial breakups, you married your first love or are alone and celibate. This is human nature. But all we've got is dancing queens speaking about fantasy lives.
That is not Noah Kahan.
4
Will we have more Noah Kahans?
We already do, but most are not musicians, they're excoriated online influencers. Sure, some are shilling products for cash, but the essence is honesty, real life, and you'd know that if you were on TikTok, but you're not, you're superior, you know all about it, but you've never experienced it. Maybe you should go on and see the forty and fiftysomethings talking about their dating experiences. People are strange, but now it's not Jim Morrison singing about them, but the hoi polloi testifying on social media.
The game is not hard, but it involves risk. And no one wants risk, everybody wants insurance, which is why so many Ivy League graduates go into finance.
And then in their spare time they listen to Noah Kahan. Because all they've got is their cash, their inner lives are empty, they need someone to speak to them.
You don't have to listen to Noah Kahan, not many more people need to listen to Noah Kahan, he's doing quite well, thank you.
And you might not even get it. Which is fine, when was it expected that everybody got everything?
And if you don't get it you're not a hater, you're just into something different.
But if you were at the show Friday night you'd know that something is happening here.
And it's exactly clear.
--
Visit the archive: http://lefsetz.com/wordpress/
--
Listen to the podcast:
-iHeart: https://ihr.fm/2Gi5PFj
-Apple: https://apple.co/2ndmpvp
--
http://www.twitter.com/lefsetz
--
If you would like to subscribe to the LefsetzLetter,
http://www.lefsetz.com/lists/?p=subscribe&id=1
If you do not want to receive any more LefsetzLetters, http://lefsetz.com/lists/?p=unsubscribe&uid=0eecea7b60b461717065cbde887c8e25
To change your email address http://lefsetz.com/lists/?p=preferences&uid=0eecea7b60b461717065cbde887c8e25
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