"Mary Turner, pioneering KMET disc jockey who ruled L.A. rock radio, dies at 76": https://lat.ms/42ybm2b
She e-mailed me a few times, very nicely in fact, which can be a rarity amongst those who have been there and done that. And I never met her, but I know her.
Every L.A. rock fan does, those who were listening to the radio during the heyday of classic rock, after all, she was the Burner, Mary Turner. I just read in the above obit that Peter Wolf gave her that moniker, I thought someone else had thought it up, but the story rings true, because Mary Turner had credibility, as one of the few women working in a man's world, FM rock radio.
Oh, in New York there was Alison Steele, the Nightbird, on WNEW-FM, she started when the station was the city's answer to KSAN in San Fran, back when WNEW was still a progressive station, but I moved to L.A. in '74 and I was confronted with an FM dial much deeper than not only the one in New York, but anywhere else I've ever been. There were five rock stations, but Mary Turner worked at #1, the Might Met, KMET, 94.7, I don't think I can ever forget not only the call letters, but the station number.
This was a different era. This was before Reagan legitimized greed. This was back when you could pay all your bills on minimum wage, and you lived for rock and roll, the music was everything.
It wasn't like today, where you can miss something, find out after the fact a band you're into played in town. You see the stations fought to be a show's partner, and when they were they promoted ad infinitum. All you needed was the radio, it was the tribal drum, it told you everything you needed to know.
All the clichés, this is when they were fresh, like Two-fer Tuesdays, and Rocktober. Yes, someone came up with those and it was an innovation, you looked forward to them. Today classic rock is a calcified format, and KMET no longer exists.
You see KMET never got the memo, or if it did, it ignored it. The music was changing. KROQ was playing Soft Cell and the Human League in Top Forty rotation. The sound was new, and different, and it resonated with the listening audience. KMET eventually picked up these tunes, but it was too late.
KROQ still exists, up the dial at 106.7. But KNX, the soft rock station, 93.1, that's long gone. As is KWST, the Led Zeppelin station, which played harder rock, at 105.9. And the last classic rock station standing is KLOS, 95.5, which was right next to KMET on the dial, but it was for those who weren't in the know, it took fewer risks, it was not as hip, you turned to the station when KMET was in commercial, but it was not a regular listen.
Like KMET.
Alison Steele was cooler than we could ever be. But Mary Turner was one of us, who graduated to the airwaves. And in an era wherein it was a joke that the deejays didn't look like their voices, Mary was blonde and beautiful, she was an L.A. icon, talking to us on the radio, spinning our favorite records.
And she did no shtick, she was neither a Top Forty deejay nor part of a Morning Zoo, she respected the music, which she was knowledgeable about, she was into it as much as we were, it was more than a job, it was a calling.
Eventually, Mary graduated to syndication. And then she married the syndicator, Norm Pattiz, who founded Westwood One. Norm was completely different from Mary, a visionary and a hustler. He called me into his office to offer me a show at PodcastOne, but as Irving would say, it was an eat what you kill deal, and that's not the kind you want to sign. But as Norm was showing me to my seat in his office, the first thing he told me was that Mary was a big fan. He ultimately said he wasn't sure about me, but Mary believed in me, and that was enough.
Now Mary was not the only legendary deejay in Los Angeles. But she was at the pinnacle. I just saw her obit on my phone and I was shocked, I went numb, that's how much of a place she had in the firmament, in my heart and mind and those of the rest of the listeners. There she was, on a regular basis, same slot every day, maybe not on weekends, but you could count on her, she was there for you.
Radio wasn't an appointment, it was a religion. It wasn't just records and inane patter, KMET took a stand against paraquat, the scourge of youth society back in the day. You see they were spraying it on marijuana in Mexico, before everyone called it cannabis, when it was still dope, and the strong Mendocino strands were just becoming available. It was us versus them. Little did we know so many of us would become them.
Not everybody. You can see the lifers at the show, at the vinyl record stores, with their scraggly hair and their faded rock t-shirts. They never stopped believing, but they were left behind economically. Turned out the music might save your soul, but it won't put bread on your table.
And then there are those who weren't there and now wear motorcycle jackets to the shows and buy all the merch. We can see right through those people. It shows. If you leave early. If you don't know all the songs.
Going to a show was not a celebration, it was akin to your record collection. The acts toured when they had new albums, which you purchased before the show, memorized and then went to hear live, knowing that most of the songs would never be played in concert again.
Radio, records, shows... That was our culture. Movies too, but not TV, except for maybe SNL. Once upon a time Lorne Michaels wasn't full of himself, the grand pooh-bah, rather he was trying to bring the youth audience back to TV, late at night, when they were available, with a show that was hip in a way that TV had never previously been. It was beyond funny, the show had an attitude, cultural impact. It was the seventies version of "Laugh-In," but with credibility. You watched and then you talked about it, ad infinitum. Mr. Mainway? John Belushi as the samurai? They were bigger than today's musicians, because they were authentic in a way no one is today. Because they knew that money was second to cultural impact, and the way you wove yourself into the fabric of society was by being innovative and true to yourself, they were our heroes.
We had many heroes. And the only ones who were rich were the musicians. Because if you were a successful musician in the seventies, you were as rich as anybody in America. And selling out was anathema.
Mary Turner greased the skids. She turned us on to new music, she accompanied us in our cars, we even played the radio at home.
I can't detail everything she did because the job of a deejay is to be dependable, there at a finger's touch, to deliver, to keep you dialed-in, not changing the channel.
That's who Mary Turner was.
How weird is it that Norm died back in December, and now Mary is gone too. Norm died at 79, Mary at 76. Mary's listeners think they're forever, but the Big C rarely loses the battle. And it could hit you when you least expect it.
The era is closing, body by body. The heroes of yore are dropping on a regular basis. They're gone.
But we remember.
I remember Mary Turner.
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Saturday, 13 May 2023
Friday, 12 May 2023
More Songs That Begin With The Chorus-SiriusXM This Week
Tune in Saturday May 13th, to Faction Talk, channel 103, at 4 PM East, 1 PM West.
If you miss the episode, you can hear it on demand on the SiriusXM app. Search: Lefsetz
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Hey Kids
Spotify: https://spoti.fi/41tMcR3
YouTube: https://bit.ly/42wWwce
I subscribe to this newsletter from Ashley Carman at Bloomberg. It's entitled "Soundbite," but mostly it's about podcasting, which has been in flux recently. Seems that everybody with a big name who's been given a podcast is having an extremely hard time gaining traction. Turns out being a star is not enough. It's tougher than ever to build an audience.
But this week's newsletter was mostly about the music business, streaming. And fraud. You can read it here:
"Why Warner Music Operates a Covert Spotify Remix Account - Artists and labels are quietly releasing multiple versions of their own songs on streaming platforms to box out the unauthorized competition": https://bloom.bg/3MkCMSD
The headline story is interesting, how the majors have playlists of sped-up songs as a kind of subterfuge, to look cool... There's more to it, you can read the details.
The other story is about outright fraud. Acts piggy-backing on others' hits and getting the royalties.
I've got to tell you, I can't say I'm overly moved by fraud. It is disillusioning, that so many are scamsters, that deception is rampant, but fraud has always permeated the recorded music business. That does not mean it shouldn't be addressed, shouldn't be stamped out, I'm just saying the issue punches above its weight because after years of turmoil in music distribution it's been figured out, streaming has won, now it's all about software, i.e. the music. But creating hit music is much more difficult than addressing distribution problems. Then again, if you create a hit will it become one, if it's "in the grooves," will it blow up?
The story about this outright fraud, linked in the above newsletter, is here:
"Music Streaming Has a $2 Billion Fraud Problem That Goes Beyond AI - With user-generated content surging on music services, bogus tracks may now account for 10% of all streams": https://bloom.bg/3pw2889
(If this link doesn't work, load the newsletter from the first link and click through from there and it will appear.)
The track being ripped-off in the article was "Hey Kids," by Molina, who they said was a a Danish-Chilean singer. It was released by the label Tambourhinoceros. Household names, right? The Chilean-Danes are buzzing up the chart, thank god for the independent labels. Huh?
The track was released in 2018. In 2022 it started to get 100,000 streams a day. What was driving the action all these years later?
I DON'T KNOW!
But I was fascinated, so I clicked the embedded video of "Hey Kids" and I was stunned, from the very beginning I was hooked, IT WAS GOOD! Do you know how often I find a track that I get from the beginning, that I want to continue to listen to? ALMOST NEVER! A lot of what is successful is mediocre and pushed down our throats by the machine, which is why you can listen to these playlists of new music and your eyes will roll up into your head. HOW COULD THIS BE?
I mean I instantly knew "Hey Kids" had something. It deserved its success. But why did it take so long, and what made it finally gain traction?
Was the cut blown up by TikTok or vice versa?
So I went to Molina's TikTok page, filled with user-generated videos: https://bit.ly/42Peg2h The song worked perfectly. Sure, it wasn't the entire song, but the parts used worked. Furthermore, if you listen to the whole song it's more than the excerpt, much more! How did these people know to use this song?
And supposedly people are using it on YouTube too and...
Let me be clear, "Hey Kids" is not the usual Spotify Top 50 fare. But that's very narrow, and that's not where barriers are broken, where envelopes are pushed. Not that "Hey Kids" is revolutionary, but if you're listening at home, boy does it resonate.
Maybe not for you. But that's fine.
BUT HOW DID THIS HAPPEN?
P.S. "Hey Kids" has 76,224,123 streams on Spotify
P.P.S. You can sign up for Ashley Carman's newsletter here: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/soundbite
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-iHeart: https://ihr.fm/2Gi5PFj
-Apple: https://apple.co/2ndmpvp
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YouTube: https://bit.ly/42wWwce
I subscribe to this newsletter from Ashley Carman at Bloomberg. It's entitled "Soundbite," but mostly it's about podcasting, which has been in flux recently. Seems that everybody with a big name who's been given a podcast is having an extremely hard time gaining traction. Turns out being a star is not enough. It's tougher than ever to build an audience.
But this week's newsletter was mostly about the music business, streaming. And fraud. You can read it here:
"Why Warner Music Operates a Covert Spotify Remix Account - Artists and labels are quietly releasing multiple versions of their own songs on streaming platforms to box out the unauthorized competition": https://bloom.bg/3MkCMSD
The headline story is interesting, how the majors have playlists of sped-up songs as a kind of subterfuge, to look cool... There's more to it, you can read the details.
The other story is about outright fraud. Acts piggy-backing on others' hits and getting the royalties.
I've got to tell you, I can't say I'm overly moved by fraud. It is disillusioning, that so many are scamsters, that deception is rampant, but fraud has always permeated the recorded music business. That does not mean it shouldn't be addressed, shouldn't be stamped out, I'm just saying the issue punches above its weight because after years of turmoil in music distribution it's been figured out, streaming has won, now it's all about software, i.e. the music. But creating hit music is much more difficult than addressing distribution problems. Then again, if you create a hit will it become one, if it's "in the grooves," will it blow up?
The story about this outright fraud, linked in the above newsletter, is here:
"Music Streaming Has a $2 Billion Fraud Problem That Goes Beyond AI - With user-generated content surging on music services, bogus tracks may now account for 10% of all streams": https://bloom.bg/3pw2889
(If this link doesn't work, load the newsletter from the first link and click through from there and it will appear.)
The track being ripped-off in the article was "Hey Kids," by Molina, who they said was a a Danish-Chilean singer. It was released by the label Tambourhinoceros. Household names, right? The Chilean-Danes are buzzing up the chart, thank god for the independent labels. Huh?
The track was released in 2018. In 2022 it started to get 100,000 streams a day. What was driving the action all these years later?
I DON'T KNOW!
But I was fascinated, so I clicked the embedded video of "Hey Kids" and I was stunned, from the very beginning I was hooked, IT WAS GOOD! Do you know how often I find a track that I get from the beginning, that I want to continue to listen to? ALMOST NEVER! A lot of what is successful is mediocre and pushed down our throats by the machine, which is why you can listen to these playlists of new music and your eyes will roll up into your head. HOW COULD THIS BE?
I mean I instantly knew "Hey Kids" had something. It deserved its success. But why did it take so long, and what made it finally gain traction?
Was the cut blown up by TikTok or vice versa?
So I went to Molina's TikTok page, filled with user-generated videos: https://bit.ly/42Peg2h The song worked perfectly. Sure, it wasn't the entire song, but the parts used worked. Furthermore, if you listen to the whole song it's more than the excerpt, much more! How did these people know to use this song?
And supposedly people are using it on YouTube too and...
Let me be clear, "Hey Kids" is not the usual Spotify Top 50 fare. But that's very narrow, and that's not where barriers are broken, where envelopes are pushed. Not that "Hey Kids" is revolutionary, but if you're listening at home, boy does it resonate.
Maybe not for you. But that's fine.
BUT HOW DID THIS HAPPEN?
P.S. "Hey Kids" has 76,224,123 streams on Spotify
P.P.S. You can sign up for Ashley Carman's newsletter here: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/soundbite
--
Visit the archive: http://lefsetz.com/wordpress/
--
Listen to the podcast:
-iHeart: https://ihr.fm/2Gi5PFj
-Apple: https://apple.co/2ndmpvp
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http://www.twitter.com/lefsetz
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Tucker On Twitter
You can't go from mass to grass roots.
In the pre-internet era, mass was everything. Broadcast/cable TV is a pre-internet paradigm, which is why it is fading. The only thing we need to see in real time is sports, or maybe breaking news. Then again, breaking news is better online, where you can hop from site to site, to get a three-dimensional view of the situation. Why settle for the viewpoint of one outlet when you can have the benefit of many?
This is the mistake many up and coming acts make today. They think it's about mass. But mass is instant, mass is now, mass is rarely forever.
That's the history of instant successes, of those dependent upon hits, sans smashes...their audience withers. Whereas if you come from the grass roots...you maintain. Furthermore, there is no mass anymore. Everybody's in their own silo. That's the beauty of the internet, you don't have to spend time with that which you are not interested in. Listen to the radio without pushing the button, enduring the commercials, are you kidding? And even if a boomer might do this, even watch "Succession" in real time on Sunday night, the younger generations don't play that way. Younger people are busy, heavily scheduled, they don't want to waste any time. Therefore they watch television when they want to, on demand, and HBO/Max and other outlets dribbling shows out week by week can't train them otherwise. They want it all and they want it now. You'd think legacy players would have learned the lesson of Napster at this point, don't give the public what it wants at your peril. Move forward, hopefully ahead of the audience, don't try to hold people back.
So Tucker Carlson is a creature of mass, a beneficiary of not only the imprimatur of Fox News, but its built-in audience. I know people who keep MSNBC on all day long, they're some of the least informed people I know. If you want to know what is happening, read the papers, go online, there's much more information. The values of the boomers are so last century. Whereas the youngsters...
So, many people don't even know that Tucker Carlson started the "Daily Caller," and that Kaitlan Collins worked for it. Carlson could have stayed there, been a bigger Kos, but he wanted more, and went to Fox. One can say Tucker paid his dues, but he didn't make his bones on the internet, like Matt Drudge. Tucker is starting all over on Twitter.
Not completely, but he's going from mass to grass roots, on demand. And to get someone to pull you up on demand...is a very hard thing to do.
It's not only television shows that are on demand, music is too. How do you get someone to pull your song? It's nearly impossible. Oh, you can pray that you get on a playlist, but that doesn't build careers, no, you build careers from the ground up, person by person, grass roots. And it's a slow process but this audience will never completely abandon you, sans some huge faux pas.
But everybody wants it instantly.
But that's no longer the world we live in.
The other night I was at a restaurant and I proffered that only one person there would be able to mention the name of a song, one single song, from the new Taylor Swift album. But the person I pointed out, the early twentysomething across the aisle, was flummoxed. Oh, she did know that Taylor Swift had a new album, but that was all. And Taylor Swift is one of the biggest acts in the business! This is not a judgment on either Swift's music or career, this is just an illustration of what everybody thinks is mass is not. Your goal of world dominance, a household name, babies singing your songs...that's a fantasy.
So Tucker Carlson goes to Twitter...
Big problem, his audience is not on Twitter. Older people inured to broadcast television are not on Twitter, because if they were there would be no reason to watch news on TV! So the hurdle of getting Tucker's audience on Twitter...is too high for most people. You have to get an account, and then follow and find Carlson. Furthermore, there is no appointment time. Which is why Howard Stern hyped his move to Sirius for nearly a year before the jump, he had to prime his audience to come with him. Carlson laid none of this groundwork. Carlson has been at the tippity-top of the traditional news business for so long that...he's completely unfamiliar with the internet and how it works. Bill Maher self-satisfiedly puts down the internet every week, he does not know that this is a bad look, makes him appear ignorant, after all, who wants the opinion of someone who never goes where the facts are? You can live in the bubble, but if you want to opine you've got to leave it.
Like RFK, Jr. My inbox is full of fans. Saying he's their candidate. I'm stunned, even RFK, Jr.s' wife went on record that she doesn't agree with his antivax beliefs. Furthermore, RFK, Jr. does not have a legacy of elected office, so one would think he's not even qualified. But somehow, RFK, Jr. is polling at about 20% compared to Biden. And today I saw an ad for him in the "Wall Street Journal." I was stunned, it was pretty convincing. RFK, Jr. is all about fighting for the little guy, public service, that resonates like Trump's statements in 2016, only RFK, Jr. is perceived to be more credible. The truth is RFK, Jr. could give Biden a run for his money. And then where would the DNC be? They anointed Biden too early. Everybody thinks he's too old. I was at the eye doctor yesterday, a dyed-in-the-wool liberal. He said every time he sees Biden he winces, he sees him slowing down, he'll vote for him, but...isn't there an alternative?
If you don't choose your alternative, someone else will. RFK, Jr. is building a base while every other potential Democrat is sitting on the sidelines, fearful of alienating Biden and the DNC.
If I hadn't gotten that plethora of e-mail, I would have never been hip to the inroads RFK, Jr. is making. I'm lucky, I'm in touch with a cornucopia of citizens 24/7, I hear all the different viewpoints, whereas most in traditional media are living inside the bubble. In addition it's a full-time job keeping up, and you can't keep up, but if you don't dedicate a good amount of time, you're out of the loop.
The younger generation? The supposed short attention span people? Stop accusing them, they're constantly grazing to get a feel, to take the temperature, that's the modern paradigm, get on board.
Turns out people believed in Fox more than Bill O'Reilly. Than Glenn Beck. And it's no different for Tucker. They were built by the machine. The Avett Brothers don't need the machine. Nor do Tedeschi Trucks or Phish or Warren Haynes. Because they all made it via the grass roots. Their audience is keeping them alive. And the audience is looking for them! These acts were not pushed down fans' throats, the fans found them, they followed them, they're invested in them. But despite the hype, time and again it's been proven that fans are less invested in the mass acts. Because the masses are fickle. And the true followers don't want to be associated with the mass, so they abandon the act.
So Tucker Carlson is starting all over. Not at the bottom, but close to it.
And Tucker made the classic mistake of someone who's been fired, believing they must get back in the game instantly. This almost always leads to mistakes. Your mind is not clear, you've got to assess the landscape. That's what Barry Diller did before he built his ragtag internet empire that made him a billionaire. Tucker should have licked his wounds and done research, gotten a feel for the world today. Come on, who else has made it broadcasting on Twitter? NO ONE! So Tucker needs to invent the paradigm along the way! YouTube, people subscribe. TikTok is where the eyeballs are. Twitter? Evanescent short messages. Not the place for Tucker.
And even if he cross-posts on YouTube, you've got to get people to pull it. Which is why TikTok is such a success, because of the algorithm, it feeds you the product.
And to see all the bloviators reporting on and endorsing Tucker's Twitter move... Illustrates to me that they've got no idea what is going on in the social media sphere. Because if they did...
But they're too busy doing their jobs.
Meanwhile, the ratings for Fox News are anemic anyway. Network ratings are in the toilet. Cable news? It's a joke! People hear about Tucker, but do they actually watch his show? Almost none do. So if he goes to Twitter...these none-fans might check him out, if even that, but odds are they're not going to become hard core fans and check every post.
Look at the highly-hyped acts. BTS. There are no casual fans. Just addicted fans and people who don't care, won't pay attention and won't listen. There's enough money for BTS to get rich, never mind those behind the act, but the money is coming from a very small percentage of the public, unlike in the old days when there was limited product and if radio in the sixties or MTV in the eighties played you you were known by everyone.
This is the world Tucker is living in. And he's got fewer fans than BTS. And BTS is EVERYWHERE! Sure, on television one place might be enough, but especially if you don't have a strong online presence, you've got to be everywhere today. Unless you're starting from the ground up, grass roots, because then people will pull your content and tell others about it and you will continue to grow. But this process is slower than ever before. Chances are the major label doesn't even sign your kind of music. And it can't do much for you. And if it does succeed in pushing you down people's throats, it alienates them. Come on, think of all the acts you're sick of and you've never even heard their music. But the endless hype is turning your stomach!
So you can go from grass roots to mass. It's just that it takes longer than ever before and mass success does not look like it used to. It might be very lucrative, but your overall mindshare will be less, because of the endless options, the difficulty of getting people to pay attention.
All we've got is time. You're looking for our attention. You've got to earn it. And it's very difficult to do and grow a significant audience. Everybody is looking for shortcuts, but they usually come at a cost. And if you're a product of the machine, you live and die by the machine. Fox is the machine, it excised Tucker Carlson.
Tucker's been sent to the minor leagues. But it works the other way around, you start in the minor leagues and then graduate to the big leagues! Essentially no one makes it if they go in reverse. Oh, they can always find a team to play ball for, but they're not going to be seen by many nor make much money and most...just give up.
I don't expect Tucker Carlson to give up, but if he was smart, he'd look for another mass job. And grow from there. To build it from the ground up, to start all over again, is just too hard, it's a fool's errand.
Come on, how many faded acts propelled by the machine into superstars came back independently to the same level, even close?
I can't think of a single one.
I rest my case.
In the pre-internet era, mass was everything. Broadcast/cable TV is a pre-internet paradigm, which is why it is fading. The only thing we need to see in real time is sports, or maybe breaking news. Then again, breaking news is better online, where you can hop from site to site, to get a three-dimensional view of the situation. Why settle for the viewpoint of one outlet when you can have the benefit of many?
This is the mistake many up and coming acts make today. They think it's about mass. But mass is instant, mass is now, mass is rarely forever.
That's the history of instant successes, of those dependent upon hits, sans smashes...their audience withers. Whereas if you come from the grass roots...you maintain. Furthermore, there is no mass anymore. Everybody's in their own silo. That's the beauty of the internet, you don't have to spend time with that which you are not interested in. Listen to the radio without pushing the button, enduring the commercials, are you kidding? And even if a boomer might do this, even watch "Succession" in real time on Sunday night, the younger generations don't play that way. Younger people are busy, heavily scheduled, they don't want to waste any time. Therefore they watch television when they want to, on demand, and HBO/Max and other outlets dribbling shows out week by week can't train them otherwise. They want it all and they want it now. You'd think legacy players would have learned the lesson of Napster at this point, don't give the public what it wants at your peril. Move forward, hopefully ahead of the audience, don't try to hold people back.
So Tucker Carlson is a creature of mass, a beneficiary of not only the imprimatur of Fox News, but its built-in audience. I know people who keep MSNBC on all day long, they're some of the least informed people I know. If you want to know what is happening, read the papers, go online, there's much more information. The values of the boomers are so last century. Whereas the youngsters...
So, many people don't even know that Tucker Carlson started the "Daily Caller," and that Kaitlan Collins worked for it. Carlson could have stayed there, been a bigger Kos, but he wanted more, and went to Fox. One can say Tucker paid his dues, but he didn't make his bones on the internet, like Matt Drudge. Tucker is starting all over on Twitter.
Not completely, but he's going from mass to grass roots, on demand. And to get someone to pull you up on demand...is a very hard thing to do.
It's not only television shows that are on demand, music is too. How do you get someone to pull your song? It's nearly impossible. Oh, you can pray that you get on a playlist, but that doesn't build careers, no, you build careers from the ground up, person by person, grass roots. And it's a slow process but this audience will never completely abandon you, sans some huge faux pas.
But everybody wants it instantly.
But that's no longer the world we live in.
The other night I was at a restaurant and I proffered that only one person there would be able to mention the name of a song, one single song, from the new Taylor Swift album. But the person I pointed out, the early twentysomething across the aisle, was flummoxed. Oh, she did know that Taylor Swift had a new album, but that was all. And Taylor Swift is one of the biggest acts in the business! This is not a judgment on either Swift's music or career, this is just an illustration of what everybody thinks is mass is not. Your goal of world dominance, a household name, babies singing your songs...that's a fantasy.
So Tucker Carlson goes to Twitter...
Big problem, his audience is not on Twitter. Older people inured to broadcast television are not on Twitter, because if they were there would be no reason to watch news on TV! So the hurdle of getting Tucker's audience on Twitter...is too high for most people. You have to get an account, and then follow and find Carlson. Furthermore, there is no appointment time. Which is why Howard Stern hyped his move to Sirius for nearly a year before the jump, he had to prime his audience to come with him. Carlson laid none of this groundwork. Carlson has been at the tippity-top of the traditional news business for so long that...he's completely unfamiliar with the internet and how it works. Bill Maher self-satisfiedly puts down the internet every week, he does not know that this is a bad look, makes him appear ignorant, after all, who wants the opinion of someone who never goes where the facts are? You can live in the bubble, but if you want to opine you've got to leave it.
Like RFK, Jr. My inbox is full of fans. Saying he's their candidate. I'm stunned, even RFK, Jr.s' wife went on record that she doesn't agree with his antivax beliefs. Furthermore, RFK, Jr. does not have a legacy of elected office, so one would think he's not even qualified. But somehow, RFK, Jr. is polling at about 20% compared to Biden. And today I saw an ad for him in the "Wall Street Journal." I was stunned, it was pretty convincing. RFK, Jr. is all about fighting for the little guy, public service, that resonates like Trump's statements in 2016, only RFK, Jr. is perceived to be more credible. The truth is RFK, Jr. could give Biden a run for his money. And then where would the DNC be? They anointed Biden too early. Everybody thinks he's too old. I was at the eye doctor yesterday, a dyed-in-the-wool liberal. He said every time he sees Biden he winces, he sees him slowing down, he'll vote for him, but...isn't there an alternative?
If you don't choose your alternative, someone else will. RFK, Jr. is building a base while every other potential Democrat is sitting on the sidelines, fearful of alienating Biden and the DNC.
If I hadn't gotten that plethora of e-mail, I would have never been hip to the inroads RFK, Jr. is making. I'm lucky, I'm in touch with a cornucopia of citizens 24/7, I hear all the different viewpoints, whereas most in traditional media are living inside the bubble. In addition it's a full-time job keeping up, and you can't keep up, but if you don't dedicate a good amount of time, you're out of the loop.
The younger generation? The supposed short attention span people? Stop accusing them, they're constantly grazing to get a feel, to take the temperature, that's the modern paradigm, get on board.
Turns out people believed in Fox more than Bill O'Reilly. Than Glenn Beck. And it's no different for Tucker. They were built by the machine. The Avett Brothers don't need the machine. Nor do Tedeschi Trucks or Phish or Warren Haynes. Because they all made it via the grass roots. Their audience is keeping them alive. And the audience is looking for them! These acts were not pushed down fans' throats, the fans found them, they followed them, they're invested in them. But despite the hype, time and again it's been proven that fans are less invested in the mass acts. Because the masses are fickle. And the true followers don't want to be associated with the mass, so they abandon the act.
So Tucker Carlson is starting all over. Not at the bottom, but close to it.
And Tucker made the classic mistake of someone who's been fired, believing they must get back in the game instantly. This almost always leads to mistakes. Your mind is not clear, you've got to assess the landscape. That's what Barry Diller did before he built his ragtag internet empire that made him a billionaire. Tucker should have licked his wounds and done research, gotten a feel for the world today. Come on, who else has made it broadcasting on Twitter? NO ONE! So Tucker needs to invent the paradigm along the way! YouTube, people subscribe. TikTok is where the eyeballs are. Twitter? Evanescent short messages. Not the place for Tucker.
And even if he cross-posts on YouTube, you've got to get people to pull it. Which is why TikTok is such a success, because of the algorithm, it feeds you the product.
And to see all the bloviators reporting on and endorsing Tucker's Twitter move... Illustrates to me that they've got no idea what is going on in the social media sphere. Because if they did...
But they're too busy doing their jobs.
Meanwhile, the ratings for Fox News are anemic anyway. Network ratings are in the toilet. Cable news? It's a joke! People hear about Tucker, but do they actually watch his show? Almost none do. So if he goes to Twitter...these none-fans might check him out, if even that, but odds are they're not going to become hard core fans and check every post.
Look at the highly-hyped acts. BTS. There are no casual fans. Just addicted fans and people who don't care, won't pay attention and won't listen. There's enough money for BTS to get rich, never mind those behind the act, but the money is coming from a very small percentage of the public, unlike in the old days when there was limited product and if radio in the sixties or MTV in the eighties played you you were known by everyone.
This is the world Tucker is living in. And he's got fewer fans than BTS. And BTS is EVERYWHERE! Sure, on television one place might be enough, but especially if you don't have a strong online presence, you've got to be everywhere today. Unless you're starting from the ground up, grass roots, because then people will pull your content and tell others about it and you will continue to grow. But this process is slower than ever before. Chances are the major label doesn't even sign your kind of music. And it can't do much for you. And if it does succeed in pushing you down people's throats, it alienates them. Come on, think of all the acts you're sick of and you've never even heard their music. But the endless hype is turning your stomach!
So you can go from grass roots to mass. It's just that it takes longer than ever before and mass success does not look like it used to. It might be very lucrative, but your overall mindshare will be less, because of the endless options, the difficulty of getting people to pay attention.
All we've got is time. You're looking for our attention. You've got to earn it. And it's very difficult to do and grow a significant audience. Everybody is looking for shortcuts, but they usually come at a cost. And if you're a product of the machine, you live and die by the machine. Fox is the machine, it excised Tucker Carlson.
Tucker's been sent to the minor leagues. But it works the other way around, you start in the minor leagues and then graduate to the big leagues! Essentially no one makes it if they go in reverse. Oh, they can always find a team to play ball for, but they're not going to be seen by many nor make much money and most...just give up.
I don't expect Tucker Carlson to give up, but if he was smart, he'd look for another mass job. And grow from there. To build it from the ground up, to start all over again, is just too hard, it's a fool's errand.
Come on, how many faded acts propelled by the machine into superstars came back independently to the same level, even close?
I can't think of a single one.
I rest my case.
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Thursday, 11 May 2023
Traffic
"Traffic: Genius, Rivalry, and Delusion in the Billion-Dollar Race to Go Viral": https://amzn.to/41zXBPb
This is not the book I thought it would be.
And I don't advise you read it. I don't see why anybody would read it. I thought it would be an insight into virality, how something spreads in today's marketplace. Instead, it's a history of virality, from Nick Denton and Gawker to the Huffington Post to BuzzFeed. Who's interested in that?
This is why writing books is so messed up. Everybody involved is so myopic and stupid. This is not household names, this is people mostly from Silicon Alley, the New York City answer to Silicon Valley. And unless you're one of them, you'll have no interest. And if you are one of them, you know everything already, why would you need to read it in a book?
Ben Smith worked for Politico, then BuzzFeed and the "New York Times" and now he runs the newsletter/events company Semafor. Reading this book I can only feel worse about him. He's a detailer of facts, not a deep thinker. He's addicted to Twitter. This is not someone who moves mountains, he is a cog in the machine. And he admits he missed it, that everybody from Jonah Peretti to the rest of the tech titans missed it. Because ultimately virality didn't pay.
The goal here is so empty. Jonah Peretti wants virality for the traffic, for the advertising, for the money, it's just that simple. And Nick Denton before him. If it bleeds, it leads. There are no limits to what is posted. But then Facebook will change its algorithm and philosophy and...BuzzFeed will have a meeting with Facebook to plead its case, to get featured as much as it used to. So? I mean at least in the music business there's music involved, art. This is a pure money play. For almost all of them. All those scumbags who are spamming your inbox 24/7, this is the same damn thing, only these guys, and they're almost all guys, don't live in Russia and are findable. Disillusions you when it comes to business. Money is everything? This is what the best and brightest care about?
And all those headlines you see about sales on Amazon and elsewhere, they're all over BuzzFeed and other sites. I mean I always scratch my head, because the discounts are so low, 10% off, whoopee! Well, since virality pays so poorly, because advertisers pay less for traffic, these sites have resorted to affiliate fees to make their money. They hope you'll click through and buy and then they can get their pennies from Amazon. It's kind of a scam.
Smith starts the BuzzFeed news operation. But mostly it's amplifying what is already out there, or posting something that more traditional outlets are afraid to, like the Steele dossier.
So then Smith goes to the "New York Times"...
That's the big story in the book, how the "Times" is the ultimate winner and all these sites based on advertising failed. The "Times" charged for news, they went to a subscription model and made beaucoup profits, are no longer totally dependent on a fading advertising market. And the "Times" even diversified, into cooking and puzzle apps and...you pay for all of them.
So if you've been following the news, you know that BuzzFeed just killed its news division. But is that in this book? Of course not, because the ancient publishing industry needs lead time, to print all these dead tree tomes. Oh, you can update the digital version instantly, but the physical books? They're out of date from the moment they're printed. The web is about living and breathing stories. "Traffic" is about a story set in amber, the rearview mirror, it'd be like writing about Napster today, then again, Napster is a hell of a lot more interesting and led to a bigger upheaval than these bros trying to tweak brain dead stories for virality.
So Smith ended up at the "Times" himself. In the old David Carr role.
But Carr was a reporter, and he didn't see the "Times" as a waystation on the journey to hoped riches, being a reporter was enough.
And Smith's "Times" stories were good, mostly about what his contacts were into, and then he quit and started Semafor.
So how is Semafor gonna make it? EVENTS!
God, there are not enough people to go to all of the events proffered.
The red hot Pivot crew, Kara Swisher and Scott Galloway, held a conference in Florida and...they lost money.
I mean if you can't get in for free to these confabs, you're the sucker. Mostly it's wannabes, believing they're going to get to hang with the names, which doesn't happen. You do get to meet like-minded people on the way up, but...
These things have a shelf life.
Like Summit at Sea, happening imminently, next week in fact.
Well, a couple of weeks past they said registration was gonna close. But now I keep getting e-mails that it's open. Turns out not enough people want to go. It's expensive, and what are the dividends? If you're charging a high price either the entertainment has to be really damn good or the networking has to be worth it, and it almost never is. Furthermore, you can't do it all, you can't stay up all night partying and then go to hear the names speak. You've got to choose. And the best and the brightest don't go to the speeches at all. Just like the rest of the world, it's a two class system, them and us. And believe me, they don't want to give the great unwashed access, their time is too valuable. The smart ones will be nice if you buttonhole them, but for a very brief moment. It's not their job to lift you up, to get you a gig, that's your job, and that's really damn hard.
So does anybody care about the details of people trying to game the system to make bread via a paradigm that's already history? Do you think you can sell a book about last year's Little League season?
And this guy took all of this time to write this book? All those hours? Sure, he got an advance, but it won't sell, and to earn back the advance there's got to be good word of mouth. And sure, all the inside people Ben Smith knows will blurb for their friend, it's an inside job, but you've got to interest those outside and believe me, no one else cares.
Now a blog about what exactly is happening today? That'd be great. But Smith isn't selling distance, perspective, Semafor is all news, what is happening now. What it all means? Well, if you're at dinner with Smith I'm sure the first thing he'll mention is the money, then the collegiality, making a difference, moving the culture? That's way down the line, not to mention the target keeps moving.
The facts, they're easily garnered. Just Google a news event, there are zillions of hits, even from publications in India! But someone who can make sense of it all? Where is the perspective on AI? Mostly it's just hysteria, to the point where the hoi polloi are talking about it and they've got no clue. Where's the seer drilling down into the weeds, making it clear, revealing the thoughts of those involved while having no skin in the game? That's hard to find, because everybody is trying to make a buck.
So if you're a scam artist, maybe you should check out "Traffic." Otherwise, FORGET IT!
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This is not the book I thought it would be.
And I don't advise you read it. I don't see why anybody would read it. I thought it would be an insight into virality, how something spreads in today's marketplace. Instead, it's a history of virality, from Nick Denton and Gawker to the Huffington Post to BuzzFeed. Who's interested in that?
This is why writing books is so messed up. Everybody involved is so myopic and stupid. This is not household names, this is people mostly from Silicon Alley, the New York City answer to Silicon Valley. And unless you're one of them, you'll have no interest. And if you are one of them, you know everything already, why would you need to read it in a book?
Ben Smith worked for Politico, then BuzzFeed and the "New York Times" and now he runs the newsletter/events company Semafor. Reading this book I can only feel worse about him. He's a detailer of facts, not a deep thinker. He's addicted to Twitter. This is not someone who moves mountains, he is a cog in the machine. And he admits he missed it, that everybody from Jonah Peretti to the rest of the tech titans missed it. Because ultimately virality didn't pay.
The goal here is so empty. Jonah Peretti wants virality for the traffic, for the advertising, for the money, it's just that simple. And Nick Denton before him. If it bleeds, it leads. There are no limits to what is posted. But then Facebook will change its algorithm and philosophy and...BuzzFeed will have a meeting with Facebook to plead its case, to get featured as much as it used to. So? I mean at least in the music business there's music involved, art. This is a pure money play. For almost all of them. All those scumbags who are spamming your inbox 24/7, this is the same damn thing, only these guys, and they're almost all guys, don't live in Russia and are findable. Disillusions you when it comes to business. Money is everything? This is what the best and brightest care about?
And all those headlines you see about sales on Amazon and elsewhere, they're all over BuzzFeed and other sites. I mean I always scratch my head, because the discounts are so low, 10% off, whoopee! Well, since virality pays so poorly, because advertisers pay less for traffic, these sites have resorted to affiliate fees to make their money. They hope you'll click through and buy and then they can get their pennies from Amazon. It's kind of a scam.
Smith starts the BuzzFeed news operation. But mostly it's amplifying what is already out there, or posting something that more traditional outlets are afraid to, like the Steele dossier.
So then Smith goes to the "New York Times"...
That's the big story in the book, how the "Times" is the ultimate winner and all these sites based on advertising failed. The "Times" charged for news, they went to a subscription model and made beaucoup profits, are no longer totally dependent on a fading advertising market. And the "Times" even diversified, into cooking and puzzle apps and...you pay for all of them.
So if you've been following the news, you know that BuzzFeed just killed its news division. But is that in this book? Of course not, because the ancient publishing industry needs lead time, to print all these dead tree tomes. Oh, you can update the digital version instantly, but the physical books? They're out of date from the moment they're printed. The web is about living and breathing stories. "Traffic" is about a story set in amber, the rearview mirror, it'd be like writing about Napster today, then again, Napster is a hell of a lot more interesting and led to a bigger upheaval than these bros trying to tweak brain dead stories for virality.
So Smith ended up at the "Times" himself. In the old David Carr role.
But Carr was a reporter, and he didn't see the "Times" as a waystation on the journey to hoped riches, being a reporter was enough.
And Smith's "Times" stories were good, mostly about what his contacts were into, and then he quit and started Semafor.
So how is Semafor gonna make it? EVENTS!
God, there are not enough people to go to all of the events proffered.
The red hot Pivot crew, Kara Swisher and Scott Galloway, held a conference in Florida and...they lost money.
I mean if you can't get in for free to these confabs, you're the sucker. Mostly it's wannabes, believing they're going to get to hang with the names, which doesn't happen. You do get to meet like-minded people on the way up, but...
These things have a shelf life.
Like Summit at Sea, happening imminently, next week in fact.
Well, a couple of weeks past they said registration was gonna close. But now I keep getting e-mails that it's open. Turns out not enough people want to go. It's expensive, and what are the dividends? If you're charging a high price either the entertainment has to be really damn good or the networking has to be worth it, and it almost never is. Furthermore, you can't do it all, you can't stay up all night partying and then go to hear the names speak. You've got to choose. And the best and the brightest don't go to the speeches at all. Just like the rest of the world, it's a two class system, them and us. And believe me, they don't want to give the great unwashed access, their time is too valuable. The smart ones will be nice if you buttonhole them, but for a very brief moment. It's not their job to lift you up, to get you a gig, that's your job, and that's really damn hard.
So does anybody care about the details of people trying to game the system to make bread via a paradigm that's already history? Do you think you can sell a book about last year's Little League season?
And this guy took all of this time to write this book? All those hours? Sure, he got an advance, but it won't sell, and to earn back the advance there's got to be good word of mouth. And sure, all the inside people Ben Smith knows will blurb for their friend, it's an inside job, but you've got to interest those outside and believe me, no one else cares.
Now a blog about what exactly is happening today? That'd be great. But Smith isn't selling distance, perspective, Semafor is all news, what is happening now. What it all means? Well, if you're at dinner with Smith I'm sure the first thing he'll mention is the money, then the collegiality, making a difference, moving the culture? That's way down the line, not to mention the target keeps moving.
The facts, they're easily garnered. Just Google a news event, there are zillions of hits, even from publications in India! But someone who can make sense of it all? Where is the perspective on AI? Mostly it's just hysteria, to the point where the hoi polloi are talking about it and they've got no clue. Where's the seer drilling down into the weeds, making it clear, revealing the thoughts of those involved while having no skin in the game? That's hard to find, because everybody is trying to make a buck.
So if you're a scam artist, maybe you should check out "Traffic." Otherwise, FORGET IT!
--
Visit the archive: http://lefsetz.com/wordpress/
--
Listen to the podcast:
-iHeart: https://ihr.fm/2Gi5PFj
-Apple: https://apple.co/2ndmpvp
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Les Claypool-This Week's Podcast
Bassist extraordinaire Colonel Les Claypool has regrouped his Fearless Flying Brigade for its first tour in two decades. This is Claypool's story, from picking up the bass at 14 to Primus to Oysterhead to wine-making to... Les will entertain you!
https://www.iheart.com/podcast/1119-the-bob-lefsetz-podcast-30806836/episode/les-claypool-114895833/
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/les-claypool/id1316200737?i=1000612610024
https://open.spotify.com/episode/5raMVWbhYn8G9S7pGUMfE8?si=gNeK25o4TJ6jvIM1wmF6Uw
https://music.amazon.com/podcasts/9ff4fb19-54d4-41ae-ae7a-8a6f8d3dafa8/episodes/ff11192e-740a-4d8e-92b6-fb946c315810/the-bob-lefsetz-podcast-les-claypool
https://www.stitcher.com/show/the-bob-lefsetz-podcast/episode/les-claypool-303101494
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https://www.iheart.com/podcast/1119-the-bob-lefsetz-podcast-30806836/episode/les-claypool-114895833/
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/les-claypool/id1316200737?i=1000612610024
https://open.spotify.com/episode/5raMVWbhYn8G9S7pGUMfE8?si=gNeK25o4TJ6jvIM1wmF6Uw
https://music.amazon.com/podcasts/9ff4fb19-54d4-41ae-ae7a-8a6f8d3dafa8/episodes/ff11192e-740a-4d8e-92b6-fb946c315810/the-bob-lefsetz-podcast-les-claypool
https://www.stitcher.com/show/the-bob-lefsetz-podcast/episode/les-claypool-303101494
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Wednesday, 10 May 2023
This Will Make You Miss Eddie Van Halen
https://bit.ly/3nYYRxA
Will there be guitar heroes again?
Sure, we can find teenagers online who can play the licks, copying the greatest hits of classic rock, but the raw innovation, that journey into the stratosphere, that originality, is that history?
Now I checked, this video is also on YouTube, posted thirteen years ago. But I'm not going to search for Van Halen playing the Who's "Won't Get Fooled Again." But based on TikTok clips I've watched, this video was just served up to me while I was doing my back stretches preparing to go out for dinner with Luke.
Now if you're a baby boomer you know "Won't Get Fooled Again" by heart. But you also know that intro and solo were done on synthesizer, somehow Eddie Van Halen manages to play them on the guitar. EFFORTLESSLY!
You watch him and he's not even looking at the strings, at his fingers on the neck, it's like Eddie knows it instinctively, AND HE PROBABLY DOES!
Now if you want to put your analyst hat on you can say that Alex's drums are a bit loud and you can't hear Michael Anthony's bass, but Sammy sings as effortlessly as Roger Daltrey, hitting the notes no problem.
Then again, Sammy doesn't have the sense of humor, the intelligence in lyrics that David Lee Roth has.
We can argue over which era of Van Halen we prefer, but one thing's for sure, the essence is Eddie Van Halen.
Sammy's tried, but he's never been able to equal the success without Eddie. Ditto DLR, who had a big solo hit with his cover of "California Girls" right after the monstrous "Jump," but then he ultimately faded away while Eddie carried on, unscathed.
Music touches you when you aren't paying attention, when you don't expect it, when you're doing something different, when your mind is elsewhere. And then this sound enters your brain and it's not intellectual, it's more of a feeling, your whole mood changes, your whole attitude, you feel connected, powerful and optimistic. That's the power of music, ultimately indefinable but something we've all experienced.
And not every song does it, not every performance. And sometimes what is great slides off us, even sounds bad when we're not in the right mood, but if you've slowed down enough, are not distracted, and it all comes together, it's one of life's great feelings.
Just wanted to tell you.
P.S. If you want to watch the clip on YouTube: https://bit.ly/44TnRr0
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Will there be guitar heroes again?
Sure, we can find teenagers online who can play the licks, copying the greatest hits of classic rock, but the raw innovation, that journey into the stratosphere, that originality, is that history?
Now I checked, this video is also on YouTube, posted thirteen years ago. But I'm not going to search for Van Halen playing the Who's "Won't Get Fooled Again." But based on TikTok clips I've watched, this video was just served up to me while I was doing my back stretches preparing to go out for dinner with Luke.
Now if you're a baby boomer you know "Won't Get Fooled Again" by heart. But you also know that intro and solo were done on synthesizer, somehow Eddie Van Halen manages to play them on the guitar. EFFORTLESSLY!
You watch him and he's not even looking at the strings, at his fingers on the neck, it's like Eddie knows it instinctively, AND HE PROBABLY DOES!
Now if you want to put your analyst hat on you can say that Alex's drums are a bit loud and you can't hear Michael Anthony's bass, but Sammy sings as effortlessly as Roger Daltrey, hitting the notes no problem.
Then again, Sammy doesn't have the sense of humor, the intelligence in lyrics that David Lee Roth has.
We can argue over which era of Van Halen we prefer, but one thing's for sure, the essence is Eddie Van Halen.
Sammy's tried, but he's never been able to equal the success without Eddie. Ditto DLR, who had a big solo hit with his cover of "California Girls" right after the monstrous "Jump," but then he ultimately faded away while Eddie carried on, unscathed.
Music touches you when you aren't paying attention, when you don't expect it, when you're doing something different, when your mind is elsewhere. And then this sound enters your brain and it's not intellectual, it's more of a feeling, your whole mood changes, your whole attitude, you feel connected, powerful and optimistic. That's the power of music, ultimately indefinable but something we've all experienced.
And not every song does it, not every performance. And sometimes what is great slides off us, even sounds bad when we're not in the right mood, but if you've slowed down enough, are not distracted, and it all comes together, it's one of life's great feelings.
Just wanted to tell you.
P.S. If you want to watch the clip on YouTube: https://bit.ly/44TnRr0
--
Visit the archive: http://lefsetz.com/wordpress/
--
Listen to the podcast:
-iHeart: https://ihr.fm/2Gi5PFj
-Apple: https://apple.co/2ndmpvp
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Biden And The Internet
He's got no online strategy. No identity. Joe seems to be hiding from the country.
Don't tell me otherwise, that just means you're in the bubble. You're operating under the old paradigm, you devour the words of the mainstream media and talk politics with similarly minded people. Which is why you were flummoxed when Trump won in 2016. You didn't know anybody voting for Trump!
I knew plenty. Because my inbox was inundated with the words of Trump supporters. Still is. These people are relentless.
The Democrats used to control the internet. They took a victory lap after Obama's victory in the 2008 election. But everything evolves faster on the internet. Those days are history. Today the right owns the internet, furthermore, they're constantly pushing back, saying they're getting a raw deal! Yes, the most shared stories on Facebook are right wing stories. But don't let the facts get in the way of a good narrative.
This is Biden's problem. The facts are actually quite good, but the narrative is terrible. The right has defined him as a bumbling old man who is afraid to give press conferences who already has one foot in the retirement home. As for Kamala Harris? She's defined as a do-nothing who failed in her one area of concentration, immigration. Of course you can rebut all this, but once again it's all about the narrative, not the facts. The people who know the facts are already convinced, but those who don't, how do you reach them? ON THE INTERNET!
2024 is not 2020. 2020 was a referendum on Donald Trump. Biden was somewhat of a cipher. The most moderate man available who also appealed to Blacks. The Democrats played it safe. But now Biden has a record. And as soon as you have a record, you're vulnerable. Period.
Yes, the nation was activated back in 2020. To keep the evil Trump at bay. What are they activated about now?
Well, you can talk all day about the abortion issue, but it doesn't seem to resonate with men. Sure, some are sympathetic, but for most it's not a defining issue. Like guns. People won't vote for a Democrat merely because they're pro-gun control. We don't have that kind of rabidity on the left, primarily because no one feels powerful, no one feels they can make a difference. Reports are people of color feel ignored by the Democratic regime. This is how the Democrats lost the blue collar, what have you done for me lately?
I'm not saying that abortion ain't gonna pay dividends for the Democrats in 2024, but I wouldn't count on it swaying the election. Don't talk to me about filibustering in South Carolina... Since the Supreme Court's decision in Dobbs, giving states the right to codify abortion laws, the availability of abortion keeps decreasing. If you call this winning, you don't know anything about competition.
For years the young have been pooh-poohed. We hear they don't vote. That elections are decided by the aged.
Now we do know the aged vote, they punch above their weight in election participation, but what we've learned in the past few election cycles is that the youth vote in higher percentages than they used to. Primarily because THEY KNOW WHAT IS GOING ON!
If you're a member of the youth, you're pilloried by the old 24/7. You've got a short attention span, you have a bad work ethic, you're narcissistic and you spend too much time on social media. Put that damn phone down.
Do you hear those on the right saying this? Do you think the "Wall Street Journal" is filled with these screeds? No! Because the right knows the internet is where you spread your message. And you don't talk down to the youth, you embrace them.
I mean come on, if I read another Ivy League blowhard testifying in the "New York Times" as to the detriment of smartphones and the internet, I'm gonna puke. Man, this is why the Democrats look bad. So, you've got a good education, you make a good buck, you read books and see foreign movies. You keep telling us you're better than we are, and that you know better, when the truth is just the opposite, these people are IGNORANT!
Ask yourself if you're ignorant. I was out for lunch with two high-powered people in the music business the other day and neither one had been on TikTok. NEITHER ONE! It's not like the barrier to entry is that high. But they're busy with other things. Fine, but don't expect to know what is going on with the youth.
The youth brought Napster. Which evolved into streaming. And if you think this is bad, you're not a consumer. Sure, old acts who made their bones in a controlled system might be making less from recordings, but not everything is positive in evolutionary change. Just like the internet today, it's ushered in a Tower of Babel society. Most people in America haven't even heard the number one song, never mind being able to sing it! But the industry and the wankers who report on it refuse to acknowledge this. They keep testifying and printing a manipulated Top Ten that most people ignore. It's not the twentieth century anymore.
TikTok is where the youth live. Will they be living there in 2028? There's a good chance they will not. Everybody thought Facebook was forever, now if you're on Facebook it's the equivalent of having an Android phone, when that green bubble shows up everybody else rolls their eyes! Oh, so you're an iconoclast and you don't care. Fine, but you're part of the minority, and it's the majority who have sway in elections.
Biden needs to post on Twitter every single day, multiple times, evidencing a personality, not bland proclamations. Why? Because this is where reporters live, they're trolling for news 24/7. You never know what will go viral, but when it comes to hard news it usually starts on Twitter.
Most people never even go to Twitter. Talk to your friends, are they active? It's a laugh, the social network punches way above its weight. But that's where stories start.
But stories live on other platforms. Where is the twentysomething, or even the teenager, making daily TikToks for Biden? Once again, not policy so much as personality. Bill Clinton won by playing the sax on "Arsenio" and going on MTV and answering the question, "boxers or briefs?" It's kind of like that old Sam Kinison joke, telling concerned people to stop sending food to starving people in Africa...instead they should send suitcases! Because these Africans need to MOVE WHERE THE FOOD IS! Clinton knew this, and not only did he go where the youth were, his appearances humanized him. Made him more relatable. If you find Joe Biden relatable, you must be a relative.
Of course, the right populates social media with inaccuracies and indignation. I'm not saying the left should proffer inaccuracies, but outrage? I'm down with that. There's so much to be outraged about. The right is touching land mines 24/7, but some Democratic strategist somewhere said not to fight back. Before he got caught up in sex scandals, my guy was Anthony Weiner, because he FOUGHT BACK! He stood up to these bullies. The only people on the left who will stand up to bullies aren't elected! Like James Carville and Paul Krugman. I hate Chuck Schumer because he's got no balls. Nor is he evil like McConnell. Chuck is bland. It'd be like being behind by four runs and the batter refusing to swing away, willing to bunt at most. I mean what game are you playing? We're far behind, GO FOR IT!
And when some elected official on the left does so...they're isolated and excoriated.
Like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Marjorie Taylor Greene is looney-tunes, but do you hear anybody on the right saying so? They either support her or shut up. But we shoot our own on the left. I mean you may not like or agree with AOC, but if she was so bad, why was she elected? And don't tell me it was in New York, because the truth is active, enlightened youth live in the metropolis and they're like-minded! As a matter of fact, after the last election cycle Ocasio-Cortez bitched that the Dems didn't properly utilize the internet, that if they'd handed campaigns over to her, the candidates would have won! She was laughed at by the cognoscenti and nothing happened.
Who are these cognoscenti? Just because you studied the Great Books in college doesn't mean you're up to date. A good education prepares you for interpreting the future, but if you don't engage with the future your opinion is worthless.
As for AI...
Yeah, like the government has ever demonstrated that it knows ANYTHING about tech. Congress grandstanded for Napster and Ticketmaster and...didn't take action. And did you notice that most of the high profile people against AI are in the game? Talk about self-interest. And I want you to show me one thing that's been eviscerated online, that no longer appears or is talked about. Hell, you can Google porn. As for child locks, the children know how to beat them. AI is here and it's coming down the pike. Prepare for it, don't try to outlaw it. Yes, guardrails would be good. Then again, we don't want laws made by the ignorant, like Act 230, which made all the internet providers immune. Or even the Telecommunications Act of 1996 that allowed radio consolidation, and homogenized and ruined the medium. Yes, lawmakers were lobbied by radio station owners while most of us were asleep. Meanwhile, new outlets came along to supersede terrestrial radio: satellite radio, podcasts, streaming... Same deal with AI, if you think you can stop the future, you're wrong. Make laws, but very carefully. Does Silicon Valley hire legislators to code? OF COURSE NOT! These elected officials are bought and paid for and when it comes to things like this they think the average Jane and Joe are not paying attention and they bend to the donors who pay the most and that's not you and me folks, but fat cats with an investment in the outcome.
How about educating our youth so they can argue factually with those on the right? A daily list of topics. This is what the right does internally, but on the left? We throw our hands in the air if we react at all.
Steve Jobs famously said he was creating TOOLS!
That's what the internet is, a tool. And if you want to build an edifice, you need to use the tools.
And just like you wouldn't plow your field with a horse today, traditional media no longer does the trick.
Everything I said above? The right knows it. They're laughing at the left as they run circles around the Democrats. Whose hearts are in the right place, but don't organize and take action. Not online, where it all goes down today.
Sure, Biden won by hiding during the pandemic. But he won't be able to do that in 2024. How come everybody on the right is talking about Trump eating potential candidates alive on the campaign trail, but nobody on the left is concerned with Biden standing up to Trump himself? As for Kamala... She was piss-poor in the 2020 debates, she received few votes. She's got no constituency, not one of any size.
We hold the above truths to be self-evident. If you're online for hours a day and are plugged into society, America.
If you're not?
YOU'RE OUT OF TOUCH!
Don't tell me otherwise, that just means you're in the bubble. You're operating under the old paradigm, you devour the words of the mainstream media and talk politics with similarly minded people. Which is why you were flummoxed when Trump won in 2016. You didn't know anybody voting for Trump!
I knew plenty. Because my inbox was inundated with the words of Trump supporters. Still is. These people are relentless.
The Democrats used to control the internet. They took a victory lap after Obama's victory in the 2008 election. But everything evolves faster on the internet. Those days are history. Today the right owns the internet, furthermore, they're constantly pushing back, saying they're getting a raw deal! Yes, the most shared stories on Facebook are right wing stories. But don't let the facts get in the way of a good narrative.
This is Biden's problem. The facts are actually quite good, but the narrative is terrible. The right has defined him as a bumbling old man who is afraid to give press conferences who already has one foot in the retirement home. As for Kamala Harris? She's defined as a do-nothing who failed in her one area of concentration, immigration. Of course you can rebut all this, but once again it's all about the narrative, not the facts. The people who know the facts are already convinced, but those who don't, how do you reach them? ON THE INTERNET!
2024 is not 2020. 2020 was a referendum on Donald Trump. Biden was somewhat of a cipher. The most moderate man available who also appealed to Blacks. The Democrats played it safe. But now Biden has a record. And as soon as you have a record, you're vulnerable. Period.
Yes, the nation was activated back in 2020. To keep the evil Trump at bay. What are they activated about now?
Well, you can talk all day about the abortion issue, but it doesn't seem to resonate with men. Sure, some are sympathetic, but for most it's not a defining issue. Like guns. People won't vote for a Democrat merely because they're pro-gun control. We don't have that kind of rabidity on the left, primarily because no one feels powerful, no one feels they can make a difference. Reports are people of color feel ignored by the Democratic regime. This is how the Democrats lost the blue collar, what have you done for me lately?
I'm not saying that abortion ain't gonna pay dividends for the Democrats in 2024, but I wouldn't count on it swaying the election. Don't talk to me about filibustering in South Carolina... Since the Supreme Court's decision in Dobbs, giving states the right to codify abortion laws, the availability of abortion keeps decreasing. If you call this winning, you don't know anything about competition.
For years the young have been pooh-poohed. We hear they don't vote. That elections are decided by the aged.
Now we do know the aged vote, they punch above their weight in election participation, but what we've learned in the past few election cycles is that the youth vote in higher percentages than they used to. Primarily because THEY KNOW WHAT IS GOING ON!
If you're a member of the youth, you're pilloried by the old 24/7. You've got a short attention span, you have a bad work ethic, you're narcissistic and you spend too much time on social media. Put that damn phone down.
Do you hear those on the right saying this? Do you think the "Wall Street Journal" is filled with these screeds? No! Because the right knows the internet is where you spread your message. And you don't talk down to the youth, you embrace them.
I mean come on, if I read another Ivy League blowhard testifying in the "New York Times" as to the detriment of smartphones and the internet, I'm gonna puke. Man, this is why the Democrats look bad. So, you've got a good education, you make a good buck, you read books and see foreign movies. You keep telling us you're better than we are, and that you know better, when the truth is just the opposite, these people are IGNORANT!
Ask yourself if you're ignorant. I was out for lunch with two high-powered people in the music business the other day and neither one had been on TikTok. NEITHER ONE! It's not like the barrier to entry is that high. But they're busy with other things. Fine, but don't expect to know what is going on with the youth.
The youth brought Napster. Which evolved into streaming. And if you think this is bad, you're not a consumer. Sure, old acts who made their bones in a controlled system might be making less from recordings, but not everything is positive in evolutionary change. Just like the internet today, it's ushered in a Tower of Babel society. Most people in America haven't even heard the number one song, never mind being able to sing it! But the industry and the wankers who report on it refuse to acknowledge this. They keep testifying and printing a manipulated Top Ten that most people ignore. It's not the twentieth century anymore.
TikTok is where the youth live. Will they be living there in 2028? There's a good chance they will not. Everybody thought Facebook was forever, now if you're on Facebook it's the equivalent of having an Android phone, when that green bubble shows up everybody else rolls their eyes! Oh, so you're an iconoclast and you don't care. Fine, but you're part of the minority, and it's the majority who have sway in elections.
Biden needs to post on Twitter every single day, multiple times, evidencing a personality, not bland proclamations. Why? Because this is where reporters live, they're trolling for news 24/7. You never know what will go viral, but when it comes to hard news it usually starts on Twitter.
Most people never even go to Twitter. Talk to your friends, are they active? It's a laugh, the social network punches way above its weight. But that's where stories start.
But stories live on other platforms. Where is the twentysomething, or even the teenager, making daily TikToks for Biden? Once again, not policy so much as personality. Bill Clinton won by playing the sax on "Arsenio" and going on MTV and answering the question, "boxers or briefs?" It's kind of like that old Sam Kinison joke, telling concerned people to stop sending food to starving people in Africa...instead they should send suitcases! Because these Africans need to MOVE WHERE THE FOOD IS! Clinton knew this, and not only did he go where the youth were, his appearances humanized him. Made him more relatable. If you find Joe Biden relatable, you must be a relative.
Of course, the right populates social media with inaccuracies and indignation. I'm not saying the left should proffer inaccuracies, but outrage? I'm down with that. There's so much to be outraged about. The right is touching land mines 24/7, but some Democratic strategist somewhere said not to fight back. Before he got caught up in sex scandals, my guy was Anthony Weiner, because he FOUGHT BACK! He stood up to these bullies. The only people on the left who will stand up to bullies aren't elected! Like James Carville and Paul Krugman. I hate Chuck Schumer because he's got no balls. Nor is he evil like McConnell. Chuck is bland. It'd be like being behind by four runs and the batter refusing to swing away, willing to bunt at most. I mean what game are you playing? We're far behind, GO FOR IT!
And when some elected official on the left does so...they're isolated and excoriated.
Like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Marjorie Taylor Greene is looney-tunes, but do you hear anybody on the right saying so? They either support her or shut up. But we shoot our own on the left. I mean you may not like or agree with AOC, but if she was so bad, why was she elected? And don't tell me it was in New York, because the truth is active, enlightened youth live in the metropolis and they're like-minded! As a matter of fact, after the last election cycle Ocasio-Cortez bitched that the Dems didn't properly utilize the internet, that if they'd handed campaigns over to her, the candidates would have won! She was laughed at by the cognoscenti and nothing happened.
Who are these cognoscenti? Just because you studied the Great Books in college doesn't mean you're up to date. A good education prepares you for interpreting the future, but if you don't engage with the future your opinion is worthless.
As for AI...
Yeah, like the government has ever demonstrated that it knows ANYTHING about tech. Congress grandstanded for Napster and Ticketmaster and...didn't take action. And did you notice that most of the high profile people against AI are in the game? Talk about self-interest. And I want you to show me one thing that's been eviscerated online, that no longer appears or is talked about. Hell, you can Google porn. As for child locks, the children know how to beat them. AI is here and it's coming down the pike. Prepare for it, don't try to outlaw it. Yes, guardrails would be good. Then again, we don't want laws made by the ignorant, like Act 230, which made all the internet providers immune. Or even the Telecommunications Act of 1996 that allowed radio consolidation, and homogenized and ruined the medium. Yes, lawmakers were lobbied by radio station owners while most of us were asleep. Meanwhile, new outlets came along to supersede terrestrial radio: satellite radio, podcasts, streaming... Same deal with AI, if you think you can stop the future, you're wrong. Make laws, but very carefully. Does Silicon Valley hire legislators to code? OF COURSE NOT! These elected officials are bought and paid for and when it comes to things like this they think the average Jane and Joe are not paying attention and they bend to the donors who pay the most and that's not you and me folks, but fat cats with an investment in the outcome.
How about educating our youth so they can argue factually with those on the right? A daily list of topics. This is what the right does internally, but on the left? We throw our hands in the air if we react at all.
Steve Jobs famously said he was creating TOOLS!
That's what the internet is, a tool. And if you want to build an edifice, you need to use the tools.
And just like you wouldn't plow your field with a horse today, traditional media no longer does the trick.
Everything I said above? The right knows it. They're laughing at the left as they run circles around the Democrats. Whose hearts are in the right place, but don't organize and take action. Not online, where it all goes down today.
Sure, Biden won by hiding during the pandemic. But he won't be able to do that in 2024. How come everybody on the right is talking about Trump eating potential candidates alive on the campaign trail, but nobody on the left is concerned with Biden standing up to Trump himself? As for Kamala... She was piss-poor in the 2020 debates, she received few votes. She's got no constituency, not one of any size.
We hold the above truths to be self-evident. If you're online for hours a day and are plugged into society, America.
If you're not?
YOU'RE OUT OF TOUCH!
--
Visit the archive: http://lefsetz.com/wordpress/
--
Listen to the podcast:
-iHeart: https://ihr.fm/2Gi5PFj
-Apple: https://apple.co/2ndmpvp
--
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Tuesday, 9 May 2023
Fast Car
https://spoti.fi/42l6cXf
This is why you never sell your publishing.
I knew Luke Combs covered Tracy Chapman's "Fast Car." I made a mental note to catch it at some point, but it wasn't front of mind, not something I had to do right away, until I saw this:
https://bit.ly/44PNXuH
That's a TikTok clip. You should watch it. This shows the power of the platform. Because of Combs's authenticity. Combs breaks all the rules. He's not movie star beautiful, he's not wearing spandex, but jeans. And you can't even see any tattoos on his arms. And he's telling a story almost anyone can connect with, about his dad, about growing up.
Meanwhile, since Combs is a country singer, you'd think his father is a yahoo from down south. But he's from Akron, Ohio. And Combs says he listened to all kinds of music. That his dad's first concert was Pink Floyd and the James Gang the night we landed on the moon. Whew!
And the story goes on...
And ends before Combs plays the song!
By conventional music business wisdom this is a missed opportunity. The audience is right there, hooked, it's so hard to gain attention in today's economy. But that is not what Combs is selling here. He's not selling at all! He's giving a view into his identity, and when an artist does it right, you can relate. I ask you, how much of the Spotify Top 50 can you relate to?
Now "Fast Car" was a hit in 1988. That's thirty five years ago. Almost two generations. What are the odds Combs's audience is familiar with it? Low. It's brand new to them! And when a song is great, it's ever green.
And if you hear this story, you've got to play the record, and I immediately went to Spotify and did.
It's not that different from the original. Oh, a few words are changed to fit Combs' modern, male identity, but that riff... You listen to it and think about how hard it is to play, about Combs practicing it long before he broke through. And it resonates just as much as it did back when, it's got the same dark feel... Turns out "Fast Car" is forever. Like Toto's "Africa," an afterthought on the album that has 1,423,651,528 Spotify streams in its original iteration, never mind the 75+ million of the Weezer cover and the multiple versions on YouTube. There's money there... A LOT of money.
Now this could not be predicted. These are not Beatles records that never went away. Meanwhile, Paul McCartney knows the value of publishing, that's why he bought all those companies. But some of his contemporaries are blowing out their songs, even their royalty streams for their records, convinced that this is a once in a lifetime period, that they're pulling the wool over the acquiring companies' eyes.
Now they don't account for a cover of "Fast Car" decades after its initial release when they value a catalog, they look at the past, not the future, no one can predict the future. These companies look at what you've earned, oftentimes decreasing over years, and then they pay you a multiple. Maybe you're even a superstar and you get north of 20x, but probably not if you're someone with one hit, that's been lying somewhat dormant. This is a banking transaction, don't let anyone tell you otherwise, where do you think all that money comes from?
And you get that chunk of change...
Your manager takes a cut. And the government takes a huge piece. And then what do you do with the money? Anybody who tells you you can get a guaranteed 10% a year, never mind more, is lying. There are no guarantees. And the people making more than 10% know they're taking a risk, which is why they diversify, they don't have all their cash in high risk ventures. And everybody in the market took a 30% haircut a year ago. And it hasn't come fully back. So not only is your asset worth less, you've given up that yearly income, so you have to drain money from the asset in order to put food on the table. Because you're never going to get paid again. Sure, you can go on the road, but maybe you can't. There's not a demand for every act out there. And the economics might not work, not every musician can play solo, the audience might expect a full band, never mind the travel expenses, never mind the fact that it's hard work, not so much the ninety minutes you're on stage, but the other twenty two and a half hours in the day, away from home.
But the above screed won't make a difference. Because if you're a great musician, you're almost always bad with money. And vice versa, those great with money are not great artists. So you see that pile of cash. And your team is telling you to take it, after all they get a commission, and everybody else is selling, and then...
You hear one of your old hits on the radio. But instead of smiling, you're wincing. Because as the track runs up the chart you're not being paid, the publisher/bank is. You feel ripped-off, all that hard work you put in to making it, the experience of writing the song, whatever fame you still have, it's completely irrelevant, when it comes to money you're gonna get none. And I ask you punk, how is that gonna feel? LOUSY!
P.S. When you click on that TikTok link you'll be asked to log in, just close that window, it's unnecessary, you can watch the clip without registering.
P.P.S. As of this writing Luke Combs's version of "Fast Car" has 52+ million streams on Spotify, it's already reached #2 on the country chart and it's not over yet.
This is why you never sell your publishing.
I knew Luke Combs covered Tracy Chapman's "Fast Car." I made a mental note to catch it at some point, but it wasn't front of mind, not something I had to do right away, until I saw this:
https://bit.ly/44PNXuH
That's a TikTok clip. You should watch it. This shows the power of the platform. Because of Combs's authenticity. Combs breaks all the rules. He's not movie star beautiful, he's not wearing spandex, but jeans. And you can't even see any tattoos on his arms. And he's telling a story almost anyone can connect with, about his dad, about growing up.
Meanwhile, since Combs is a country singer, you'd think his father is a yahoo from down south. But he's from Akron, Ohio. And Combs says he listened to all kinds of music. That his dad's first concert was Pink Floyd and the James Gang the night we landed on the moon. Whew!
And the story goes on...
And ends before Combs plays the song!
By conventional music business wisdom this is a missed opportunity. The audience is right there, hooked, it's so hard to gain attention in today's economy. But that is not what Combs is selling here. He's not selling at all! He's giving a view into his identity, and when an artist does it right, you can relate. I ask you, how much of the Spotify Top 50 can you relate to?
Now "Fast Car" was a hit in 1988. That's thirty five years ago. Almost two generations. What are the odds Combs's audience is familiar with it? Low. It's brand new to them! And when a song is great, it's ever green.
And if you hear this story, you've got to play the record, and I immediately went to Spotify and did.
It's not that different from the original. Oh, a few words are changed to fit Combs' modern, male identity, but that riff... You listen to it and think about how hard it is to play, about Combs practicing it long before he broke through. And it resonates just as much as it did back when, it's got the same dark feel... Turns out "Fast Car" is forever. Like Toto's "Africa," an afterthought on the album that has 1,423,651,528 Spotify streams in its original iteration, never mind the 75+ million of the Weezer cover and the multiple versions on YouTube. There's money there... A LOT of money.
Now this could not be predicted. These are not Beatles records that never went away. Meanwhile, Paul McCartney knows the value of publishing, that's why he bought all those companies. But some of his contemporaries are blowing out their songs, even their royalty streams for their records, convinced that this is a once in a lifetime period, that they're pulling the wool over the acquiring companies' eyes.
Now they don't account for a cover of "Fast Car" decades after its initial release when they value a catalog, they look at the past, not the future, no one can predict the future. These companies look at what you've earned, oftentimes decreasing over years, and then they pay you a multiple. Maybe you're even a superstar and you get north of 20x, but probably not if you're someone with one hit, that's been lying somewhat dormant. This is a banking transaction, don't let anyone tell you otherwise, where do you think all that money comes from?
And you get that chunk of change...
Your manager takes a cut. And the government takes a huge piece. And then what do you do with the money? Anybody who tells you you can get a guaranteed 10% a year, never mind more, is lying. There are no guarantees. And the people making more than 10% know they're taking a risk, which is why they diversify, they don't have all their cash in high risk ventures. And everybody in the market took a 30% haircut a year ago. And it hasn't come fully back. So not only is your asset worth less, you've given up that yearly income, so you have to drain money from the asset in order to put food on the table. Because you're never going to get paid again. Sure, you can go on the road, but maybe you can't. There's not a demand for every act out there. And the economics might not work, not every musician can play solo, the audience might expect a full band, never mind the travel expenses, never mind the fact that it's hard work, not so much the ninety minutes you're on stage, but the other twenty two and a half hours in the day, away from home.
But the above screed won't make a difference. Because if you're a great musician, you're almost always bad with money. And vice versa, those great with money are not great artists. So you see that pile of cash. And your team is telling you to take it, after all they get a commission, and everybody else is selling, and then...
You hear one of your old hits on the radio. But instead of smiling, you're wincing. Because as the track runs up the chart you're not being paid, the publisher/bank is. You feel ripped-off, all that hard work you put in to making it, the experience of writing the song, whatever fame you still have, it's completely irrelevant, when it comes to money you're gonna get none. And I ask you punk, how is that gonna feel? LOUSY!
P.S. When you click on that TikTok link you'll be asked to log in, just close that window, it's unnecessary, you can watch the clip without registering.
P.P.S. As of this writing Luke Combs's version of "Fast Car" has 52+ million streams on Spotify, it's already reached #2 on the country chart and it's not over yet.
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Trump/Biden?
Joe Biden will not be the Democratic nominee.
We're seeing a repeat of 2016, when the Democratic establishment told us to trust them, that they were the experts, and the numbers said that Hillary was going to win. She didn't. Now these same experts are telling us Biden is the safe bet, when the numbers indicate otherwise.
You may have caught the Post-ABC poll that indicated if the election were held today, Trump would beat Biden by six points.
You can see the poll here: https://wapo.st/3NUooCM
Or read the distillation thereof here: https://nyti.ms/3prl0Fm
These are both free links, click away!
Even worse are Biden's approval numbers. I quote from the "Times" article above:
"But in fact, only two of the past 13 presidents had approval ratings lower than Mr. Biden has at this point, according to an aggregate compilation by FiveThirtyEight.com — Mr. Trump and Jimmy Carter, both of whom lost re-election."
However, there's a caveat:
"More encouraging for Mr. Biden is the example of Ronald Reagan, who was just one-tenth of a point above where the current president is at this stage of his presidency, but came back to win a landslide re-election in 1984."
Do I fully trust this poll? Absolutely not. And I'm not the only one. There are questions as to who was queried. Furthermore, polls are not always accurate. But one thing is for sure, unlike in that old Monkees hit, very few people are believers in Joe Biden.
Let's not talk about his record. Voting is not intellectual, it's emotional. Otherwise why would all those Democrats have ignored the call to vote for Hillary just for the Supreme Court nominations? Emotionally, Americans feel the country is on the wrong path, those on both the right and the left, and they don't believe Biden can solve this problem, which is the problem we want fixed. Healing, bringing the country together. And how can this be done? By LEADING! Barack Obama had little experience, but people connected with him, had hope. Come on, who has hope in Joe Biden?
All you aged Democrats with your fingers crossed, don't bother to blow back. Of course I'd vote for Biden, of course his record is good, but that's not what I'm talking about here, I'm talking about ELECTABILITY! And that's where Joe falls down.
I don't want an octogenarian running the country now, never mind half a decade from now. Technology is moving at light speed, and I can barely find a boomer who is on TikTok. Pooh-pooh the social network all you want, but I could point you to music clips that would blow your mind. They might even be on YouTube, but it's the algorithm that serves them up, excavates them from the depths. TikTok is modern-day radio, yet no one who professes to love radio can admit this, or is even aware of it.
You have to use the technology to understand it. Politicians and the cognoscenti are anti-social media, but the nation lives on social media! Did you see the FCC Chairman who claimed television was a "vast wasteland" just died? Is there anybody who would claim TV is a vast wasteland today? Hell, even the days of Springsteen's 57 channels are in the rearview mirror. That song was released over THIRTY YEARS AGO! Man, not only are the times-a-changin', they've changed. Remember all those people who said CDs had the best audio quality and should be the standard, which everybody should buy? Well, now even Apple streams tracks at higher than CD quality, no one is bitching about audio quality anymore, especially with earbuds the standard of listening. As for file-trading... You're telling me you still have files?
That's right, Biden is out of touch, but he's not the only Democrat. As for the Republicans, they're not only clueless as to today, they want to jet us all back to the past, afraid of a future wherein whites don't dominate. Criticize that one all you want, but Trump's Doral is hosting a white nationalist conference this weekend. Facts don't lie.
But Donald Trump does.
Yes, the lies have finally caught up with Donald. He's torched his credibility. Lying about so much that when he says he never met E. Jean Carroll, other than his savant followers, nobody takes his statement at face value. I mean who can be on Trump's side in this case? Certainly not the independents who will sway the next election. Of which there are actually few, but enough to make one man the winner or not.
And speaking of men... You can't find one person, of either sex, who supports Kamala Harris. I know, her husband, some people who worked with her, but that's not enough to win an election. Biden should dump her hard, right now.
But what we really need is someone else to enter the race. Someone younger, who is not afraid to speak the truth. Someone people might be able to believe in.
My guy is Newsom, he looks good, regularly attacks Republicans, and those who believe California is in trouble...don't know the facts. As for real estate prices and even homeless people, that's everywhere. But in the south there's less of a safety net.
But Newsom is afraid to go against the Democratic cabal. Unlike Bernie. Even Gen-Z has babies now, it's nearly a decade later and our candidates are older white men spewing the same crap? I'm disillusioned, and I'm not the only one.
On the right they're paralyzed too. Everybody's afraid to go up against Trump, for fear he'll excoriate them. Then again, he's lost credibility, and a fighter could excise him. Even Chris Christie. If you came out swinging from minute one and got your people to vote in the primary.
And then we have the debt ceiling crisis. We've got to hear about it for months, all the potential pitfalls of not raising it, when the truth is someone is going to blink, because no one wants to be responsible for putting the nation, the world, in turmoil. It's all posturing, until...
And the Republicans have seen this movie. With abortion and gun laws. Most of the country, by far, wants both, but they're beholden to a fringe right that is causing them to lose elections. That's what happened in 2020. And their gerrymandering is coming to bite them in the ass. Now, in these Republican districts, you have to be worried about being primaried by some nincompoop further right, so you can't speak the truth. But if these were open districts...
And the right's position doesn't add up. Appeal to the blue collar whilst you take away their benefits in the name of freedom and the rich reap the rewards.
Meanwhile, those on the left, the educated "elite"... Sure, some of them are willing to sacrifice, but not most. They worked hard and they want to keep their money. It's a bad look. They want nothing to do with everyman. Don't want to shop where they do, have their kids go to the same schools, vacation in the same places. I hate these people too, and I'm the product of an elite education. So you got rich working at the bank, what did you contribute to society? NOTHING! And you're no better than the rest of us. But since you're rich, you think you are, hogwash.
But it doesn't matter what I think, it matters what everybody else thinks.
The downtrodden just want to flip the table, which was how Trump got elected. And no one else wants change, for fear they'll lose something. So those who want to upset the apple cart are in control, a faceless, overlooked mob. On both the right and the left. I mean talk about no hope... Of course there are those on the right who hate the libs on principle and will never vote for a Democrat, but they are far from the majority, FAR FROM IT!
So where is the Democrat willing to speak English and fight for radical change? And we need radical change. Or at least the promise thereof. And believe me, younger voters, who came out in droves in 2020, believe we need change, overburdened with debt from college degrees that don't pay off. Used to be a state education was nearly free. But not any longer, because of taxes. No one wants to pay for anything. Socialism is the enemy. Ignorance rules. Where is someone who can explain it all in a comprehensible manner and lead us out of the maelstrom?
And why are the Democrats constantly afraid? Yup, the right have got them cornered and cowered, fearful if they bite back they'll alienate the "deplorables." Someone should stand up to the tail wagging the dog.
But the bottom line here is life is long. And what is expected frequently does not come to be.
Trump is on a losing streak. Not only in New York civil court, but potentially in Georgia and other places. It's definitely not additive, it's a bad look.
But bad look can still trump milquetoast. Come on, tell me about all the music superstars who are middle of the road, with no edge. You need an edge for people to get hooked on. Without it, you're bland and overlooked.
So the candidates in 2024 are far from decided, never mind the election. And Biden is getting older every day as Trump is getting caught in the legal system.
Furthermore, I believe a Republican other than Trump (and DeSantis!) could easily beat Biden. Someone more reasonable, less extreme. Not Marjorie Taylor Greene. Man, I saw Chris Sununu on Bill Maher and he'd eviscerate Biden, no doubt in my mind.
In golf it is said that if you play it safe to win, you lose.
The Democrats are playing it safe.
Something's got to give.
And I'm betting that it will.
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Visit the archive: http://lefsetz.com/wordpress/
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We're seeing a repeat of 2016, when the Democratic establishment told us to trust them, that they were the experts, and the numbers said that Hillary was going to win. She didn't. Now these same experts are telling us Biden is the safe bet, when the numbers indicate otherwise.
You may have caught the Post-ABC poll that indicated if the election were held today, Trump would beat Biden by six points.
You can see the poll here: https://wapo.st/3NUooCM
Or read the distillation thereof here: https://nyti.ms/3prl0Fm
These are both free links, click away!
Even worse are Biden's approval numbers. I quote from the "Times" article above:
"But in fact, only two of the past 13 presidents had approval ratings lower than Mr. Biden has at this point, according to an aggregate compilation by FiveThirtyEight.com — Mr. Trump and Jimmy Carter, both of whom lost re-election."
However, there's a caveat:
"More encouraging for Mr. Biden is the example of Ronald Reagan, who was just one-tenth of a point above where the current president is at this stage of his presidency, but came back to win a landslide re-election in 1984."
Do I fully trust this poll? Absolutely not. And I'm not the only one. There are questions as to who was queried. Furthermore, polls are not always accurate. But one thing is for sure, unlike in that old Monkees hit, very few people are believers in Joe Biden.
Let's not talk about his record. Voting is not intellectual, it's emotional. Otherwise why would all those Democrats have ignored the call to vote for Hillary just for the Supreme Court nominations? Emotionally, Americans feel the country is on the wrong path, those on both the right and the left, and they don't believe Biden can solve this problem, which is the problem we want fixed. Healing, bringing the country together. And how can this be done? By LEADING! Barack Obama had little experience, but people connected with him, had hope. Come on, who has hope in Joe Biden?
All you aged Democrats with your fingers crossed, don't bother to blow back. Of course I'd vote for Biden, of course his record is good, but that's not what I'm talking about here, I'm talking about ELECTABILITY! And that's where Joe falls down.
I don't want an octogenarian running the country now, never mind half a decade from now. Technology is moving at light speed, and I can barely find a boomer who is on TikTok. Pooh-pooh the social network all you want, but I could point you to music clips that would blow your mind. They might even be on YouTube, but it's the algorithm that serves them up, excavates them from the depths. TikTok is modern-day radio, yet no one who professes to love radio can admit this, or is even aware of it.
You have to use the technology to understand it. Politicians and the cognoscenti are anti-social media, but the nation lives on social media! Did you see the FCC Chairman who claimed television was a "vast wasteland" just died? Is there anybody who would claim TV is a vast wasteland today? Hell, even the days of Springsteen's 57 channels are in the rearview mirror. That song was released over THIRTY YEARS AGO! Man, not only are the times-a-changin', they've changed. Remember all those people who said CDs had the best audio quality and should be the standard, which everybody should buy? Well, now even Apple streams tracks at higher than CD quality, no one is bitching about audio quality anymore, especially with earbuds the standard of listening. As for file-trading... You're telling me you still have files?
That's right, Biden is out of touch, but he's not the only Democrat. As for the Republicans, they're not only clueless as to today, they want to jet us all back to the past, afraid of a future wherein whites don't dominate. Criticize that one all you want, but Trump's Doral is hosting a white nationalist conference this weekend. Facts don't lie.
But Donald Trump does.
Yes, the lies have finally caught up with Donald. He's torched his credibility. Lying about so much that when he says he never met E. Jean Carroll, other than his savant followers, nobody takes his statement at face value. I mean who can be on Trump's side in this case? Certainly not the independents who will sway the next election. Of which there are actually few, but enough to make one man the winner or not.
And speaking of men... You can't find one person, of either sex, who supports Kamala Harris. I know, her husband, some people who worked with her, but that's not enough to win an election. Biden should dump her hard, right now.
But what we really need is someone else to enter the race. Someone younger, who is not afraid to speak the truth. Someone people might be able to believe in.
My guy is Newsom, he looks good, regularly attacks Republicans, and those who believe California is in trouble...don't know the facts. As for real estate prices and even homeless people, that's everywhere. But in the south there's less of a safety net.
But Newsom is afraid to go against the Democratic cabal. Unlike Bernie. Even Gen-Z has babies now, it's nearly a decade later and our candidates are older white men spewing the same crap? I'm disillusioned, and I'm not the only one.
On the right they're paralyzed too. Everybody's afraid to go up against Trump, for fear he'll excoriate them. Then again, he's lost credibility, and a fighter could excise him. Even Chris Christie. If you came out swinging from minute one and got your people to vote in the primary.
And then we have the debt ceiling crisis. We've got to hear about it for months, all the potential pitfalls of not raising it, when the truth is someone is going to blink, because no one wants to be responsible for putting the nation, the world, in turmoil. It's all posturing, until...
And the Republicans have seen this movie. With abortion and gun laws. Most of the country, by far, wants both, but they're beholden to a fringe right that is causing them to lose elections. That's what happened in 2020. And their gerrymandering is coming to bite them in the ass. Now, in these Republican districts, you have to be worried about being primaried by some nincompoop further right, so you can't speak the truth. But if these were open districts...
And the right's position doesn't add up. Appeal to the blue collar whilst you take away their benefits in the name of freedom and the rich reap the rewards.
Meanwhile, those on the left, the educated "elite"... Sure, some of them are willing to sacrifice, but not most. They worked hard and they want to keep their money. It's a bad look. They want nothing to do with everyman. Don't want to shop where they do, have their kids go to the same schools, vacation in the same places. I hate these people too, and I'm the product of an elite education. So you got rich working at the bank, what did you contribute to society? NOTHING! And you're no better than the rest of us. But since you're rich, you think you are, hogwash.
But it doesn't matter what I think, it matters what everybody else thinks.
The downtrodden just want to flip the table, which was how Trump got elected. And no one else wants change, for fear they'll lose something. So those who want to upset the apple cart are in control, a faceless, overlooked mob. On both the right and the left. I mean talk about no hope... Of course there are those on the right who hate the libs on principle and will never vote for a Democrat, but they are far from the majority, FAR FROM IT!
So where is the Democrat willing to speak English and fight for radical change? And we need radical change. Or at least the promise thereof. And believe me, younger voters, who came out in droves in 2020, believe we need change, overburdened with debt from college degrees that don't pay off. Used to be a state education was nearly free. But not any longer, because of taxes. No one wants to pay for anything. Socialism is the enemy. Ignorance rules. Where is someone who can explain it all in a comprehensible manner and lead us out of the maelstrom?
And why are the Democrats constantly afraid? Yup, the right have got them cornered and cowered, fearful if they bite back they'll alienate the "deplorables." Someone should stand up to the tail wagging the dog.
But the bottom line here is life is long. And what is expected frequently does not come to be.
Trump is on a losing streak. Not only in New York civil court, but potentially in Georgia and other places. It's definitely not additive, it's a bad look.
But bad look can still trump milquetoast. Come on, tell me about all the music superstars who are middle of the road, with no edge. You need an edge for people to get hooked on. Without it, you're bland and overlooked.
So the candidates in 2024 are far from decided, never mind the election. And Biden is getting older every day as Trump is getting caught in the legal system.
Furthermore, I believe a Republican other than Trump (and DeSantis!) could easily beat Biden. Someone more reasonable, less extreme. Not Marjorie Taylor Greene. Man, I saw Chris Sununu on Bill Maher and he'd eviscerate Biden, no doubt in my mind.
In golf it is said that if you play it safe to win, you lose.
The Democrats are playing it safe.
Something's got to give.
And I'm betting that it will.
--
Visit the archive: http://lefsetz.com/wordpress/
--
Listen to the podcast:
-iHeart: https://ihr.fm/2Gi5PFj
-Apple: https://apple.co/2ndmpvp
--
http://www.twitter.com/lefsetz
--
If you would like to subscribe to the LefsetzLetter,
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