If I read one more story that the movies are back... You might be surprised to discover that "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" has grossed 50% more than "The Odyssey," the supposed talk of the summer. That's right, "Spider-Man" has a world-wide gross of $785,831,670 compared to "The Odyssey"'s $504,680,370, and "Spider-Man" has been in release two weeks less! Furthermore, "The Odyssey" gross has been boosted by IMAX screenings/attendance, which cost 20-60% more per ticket and represent 30% of the film's overall gross. So why are we subjected to endless reams of hype celebrating the success of "The Odyssey" and at this point barely hear crickets re "Spider-Man"? Because the press likes the story. Another "Spider-Man?" Meh. But some big, new extravaganza from one of the few directors who can sell a picture by name alone? Based on a Greek classic that the great unwashed have never read? What is sold as mass is not. And what have we learned from the above two successes? That movies have become an event business, a land of a couple of successful moonshots, this is not evidence of a healthy business, this is representative of a business that has lost its soul and has no time for that which is not a mega-success, if for no other reason than marketing for the cheap movie costs as much as that for the expensive film. Looking at the year-to-date chart... There are only 18 films that exceed $100 million in worldwide gross. And only eight of those flicks are originals. And in the top ten, besides "The Odyssey," one of the originals is "Michael," which grossed far more than expected, but still was akin to a sequel, the studio was not starting from scratch with an unknown quantity. As for the other originals in the top ten... You've got "Obsession" and "Backrooms," which are definitely hits, but from outsiders. This is where a renaissance in the health of the business could grow from. But other than horror, no one wants to distribute a low budget movie. Hell, film festival sales are down. In order for the movie business to recover, people have to get into the habit of going to the theatre on a regular basis, knowing that something good will be playing every weekend. But this is not the case, we've got a few hits and a bunch of dreck. But the somnambulant movie press refuses to address the fact that its cheese has been moved, that the audience has moved online, to streaming, and that the theatrical business is moribund with less of a future than ever. Yes, the film business depends on new product, out of the box, risky stuff that titillates the audience. Despite the success of "Spider-Man," superhero sequels are no longer doing boffo at the b.o.... As for something new and different... Streaming is where you get it. Netflix is derided because it doesn't release almost any of its movies in theatres, but Netflix makes 25-50 films a year, and viewership is through the roof, because friction is nearly nonexistent. You've already paid, you don't have to pay attention to press, you just log on and see the new product that appeals to you on the homepage. But this isn't sexy enough for the so-called auteurs, who believe that every film must be seen in a theatre. But the truth is the number one platform is YouTube. Because it's cutting edge and innovative. Meanwhile, Hollywood has its knickers in a twist, fearful that the Paramount/Warner Bros. Discovery will result in fewer productions. Theatrical business is like Vegas. There are no DVD sales to prop up grosses, never mind video stores. A film either opens big or does not, almost nothing grows. And the marketing cycle is all off. Windows make no sense to the audience in an on demand world where if you're aware of it now, you want to consume it now. You mean I've got to wait weeks for VOD and then months for it to trickle down to a service I pay for? By that time, with the tsunami of product, I no longer remember the movies of even a few months ago. But, but, BUT! If Netflix drops a movie or a complete series... It's out of cycle with the press. The press likes something dripped out week by week so they can write about it. Otherwise, it's one and done. But the press is out of touch with the public. The public doesn't care about the endless stories, the updates in the paper, they want it all now, they binge it and move on to something new. You don't try to artificially slow down the cycle... Meanwhile, Netflix is adding games and podcasts trying to catch up with YouTube and Hollywood is arguing over how many films Ellison is going to make when people have gotten out of the habit of going to the movies on a regular basis. You can't stop progress. Then again, if I read one more fakokta article about the return of physical product in the music business... How about those inane articles about cassettes coming back? Bottom line, the true bottom line, is that streaming accounts for 84% of revenue. And, physical sales are usually accounted for on a retail basis, whereas streaming is inherently wholesale. And people buy vinyl who don't even have turntables. Buy all the discs you want, but if you think physical is coming back, you've probably still got a CD player in the dashboard of your car, never mind a cassette deck! So until we can agree on a narrative, we cannot march forward. Then again, disruptors have eaten the lunch of the establishment over and over again. Netflix succeeded in plain sight. Meanwhile, we keep hearing that more films need to be made for theatrical release. Why not release the album exclusively on vinyl first? And make it so it doesn't hit streaming services for month. Those records would be dead on arrival, because access is everything. The audience will show up for an event picture. But they will not show up for more pictures on a regular basis and they are never going to again. But all the talk is about the Paramount/Warner Bros. Discovery merger and the theatrical business. The general public doesn't care. Even Zaslav wants out, so he can get his big paycheck before the entire enterprise sinks. But don't let the truth get in the way of a good story. -- Visit the archive: http://lefsetz.com/wordpress/ -- Listen to the podcast: -iHeart: https://ihr.fm/2Gi5PFj -Apple: https://apple.co/2ndmpvp -- http://www.twitter.com/lefsetz -- If you would like to subscribe to the LefsetzLetter, http://www.lefsetz.com/lists/?p=subscribe&id=1 If you do not want to receive any more LefsetzLetters, http://lefsetz.com/lists/?p=unsubscribe&uid=0eecea7b60b461717065cbde887c8e25 To change your email address http://lefsetz.com/lists/?p=preferences&uid=0eecea7b60b461717065cbde887c8e25
