Songs where the live version is more famous than the studio take.
Tune in Saturday September 14th to Faction Talk, channel 103, at 4 PM East, 1 PM West.
If you miss the episode, you can hear it on demand on the SiriusXM app. Search: Lefsetz
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Friday 13 September 2024
We Will Dance Again
Trailer: https://t.ly/8_M5q
If this happened in America...
We'd still be talking about it and we'd never get over it.
What you've got here is a documentary on the Nova Music Festival, you know, in the Israeli desert on October 7th, where people were killed, raped and taken hostage.
Now the truth is war is not like in the movies. There's no soundtrack. There's no arc. No buildup to a crescendo. The sun is out, the light is bright, and WHAT THE F*CK IS HAPPENING!
The rockets are in the air... And no one is concerned. First and foremost, many attendees are high. This is Israel, the land of the Iron Dome. You're safe, right?
Wrong.
Now we've been taught that not only is the United States the greatest country on the planet, but those in the rest of the world are the other. Maybe we'll let some people from England and Ireland pass, after all they speak the same language. But what is astounding, what you'll notice right away, is these people are just like you and me.
Assuming you're in your twenties.
This is before commitment, obligation. Before the big job. Before marriage and kids. When you'll drive all night to a location you just learned about to party until the sun rises, and even thereafter.
They've got tattoos, stringy hair. And they radiate intelligence and awareness and togetherness. This is not class warfare, this is kumbaya.
And then...
Not only are revolutions now televised, but so is war. Everybody's got a smartphone camera, documenting their life.
We remember the seven o'clock news footage of Vietnam. Canned for our consumption. There was a filter between what was going on over there and what we learned over here. As a matter of fact, stories would leak out and no one would believe them, because the U.S. was the almighty, we didn't lose wars, we had the money and the power, and it was just a matter of time before we conquered.
Only we didn't.
Turns out weapons are no match against hearts and minds.
So what happens is twenty three years ago the Twin Towers fall down, 2,753 people died, along with 184 at the Pentagon and 40 in Pennsylvania and...
In retaliation we invaded Iraq. Which held no responsibility for the terror attack.
But someone had to pay!
So if you watch this movie, and most people won't, because it's launching on 9/24 on Paramount+, a streaming outlet so crummy that the parent company was sold at a near fire sale price (but it is on BBC2 on 9/26), and we'll pay for Netflix, and Amazon Video is baked into Prime, but beyond that everything is expendable, and Paramount+ is way down the list of desirability.
And most people don't want to see this stuff.
First and foremost they hate the blood. There's a warning at the beginning of the film, but what ensued was not what I thought would be shown. You've got people literally running for their life, you've got people being shot... Once again, it's not orchestrated like a Hollywood movie. It's just hours and hours of...
Being on your own.
The IDF was caught flat-footed, no one knew what was going on. The attendees were calling law enforcement, and if they could even get through, the people they spoke to didn't believe them, certainly were not amped up about it.
So first and foremost you'll be confronted with the security lapse. The vaunted Israeli military... Failed. Someone was responsible.
And then there's Hamas.
When you see them cut the fence and storm through with their rifles, out for blood... I can't imagine anybody watching this and siding with them, unless you're a member of Hamas yourself.
This is what the Israelis are up against.
But somehow the script has been flipped. Israel is seen as the aggressor.
Not that I'm going to change your mind if you believe otherwise. This is a nation where Tucker Carlson proffers a Holocaust denier who lauds Adolf Hitler and denigrates Winston Churchill. And even the right wing "Wall Street Journal" has excoriated Carlson for this, but now he's got a Top Ten podcast and a chip on his shoulder after being sidelined by Murdoch so good luck getting him to change his ways.
And then there's Fox itself.
I recommend you read the article "How Fox News sane-washes Trump" in today's "Washington Post." Here's a bite:
"The quotes cited feel very Earth-2 to anyone not steeped in the right-wing ecosphere — 'big win,' 'best closing,' 'this race just got tighter.'"
Free link: https://wapo.st/4dm6pOV
My inbox is filled with stuff like this. Pointing to the number of views of Trump's debate closing on YouTube... That's one of the talking points, along with railing against ABC and the moderators, which makes no sense if Trump truly did clean the floor with Harris.
But my point here is in a world where there are multiple news sources, and people only consume what they agree with, one cannot change people's views on the war in Gaza. Impossible. I haven't been able to do it.
Then again, how important is it to most people?
Of course it's about antisemitism, because you don't see equivalent protests about the deaths in Syria and Sudan, but if you're a member of the group attacked...
Just like Black people tell their kids to beware of "driving while Black," we Jews are brought up being reminded by our parents about antisemitism.
Of course it's worse for the Blacks, because they're easily identifiable. But any minority ultimately comes up for abuse. It can be as simple as living in a northern city as opposed to the rural south, or even living in California. Not that I want to make all these equal, I just want to illustrate that if you believe you're immune, you're dreaming.
Or as Martin Niemöller so famously put it:
"First they came for the socialists, and I did not speak out—because I was not a socialist.
Then they came for the trade unionists, and I did not speak out—because I was not a trade unionist.
Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out—because I was not a Jew.
Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me."
So most people won't be incentivized to watch "We Will Dance Again." You've got to have Paramount+, and if you're not an EDM fan, or a Jew, why take the time?
Used to be different. In the three network era. If it made it on to TV, millions of people saw it. That's something we lost with cable and the internet.
But once you see Hamas in the movie... Your opinion might change. You still might talk about innocent Palestinians, but this is what the Israelis are up against. Not only did Hamas attack out of the blue without provocation, they employ a vitriol and complete lack of feeling for humanity that thank god we do not see in the U.S. But if you watch this movie, you do see it. Which is why people should.
I could give you my position on the Gaza conflict...
Hell, I'll tell you that I've got no time for Netanyahu and the settlements, but when terrorists are challenging your right to exist, what are you supposed to do?
From the river to the sea baby, they want Israel annihilated.
But you might not agree.
But that's the modern world, you've got your news and you assume mine is as narrow and biased as yours, therefore my opinion is dismissible. There is no truth, never mind agreement.
But these images don't lie.
We can't even convince Trump voters to investigate his behavior, what odds do we have that the views of the pro-Palestinian faction can be changed?
I will tell you that BDS was founded by the Palestinians, it took root on college campuses and the kids eating up their info are the same as the social media influencers on the payroll of Tenet Media, funded by the Russians. Better to be angry and take a side, and double-down, as opposed to try and survey the landscape and see what is really going on.
Am I going to defend everything Israel does?
Absolutely not. They were undercutting the Supreme Court before this all happened. And the religious right that has pushed the settlements and the rightward policies of the government...thank god their children now have to go into the army. What's fair is fair.
You've got talking heads in this movie say they'll never forget it. This day, what they saw. And you hear this all the time, but...
When Hamas is throwing hand grenade after hand grenade into your shelter, when you wake up and find out you're covered in dead bodies, no wonder people have survivor's guilt, no wonder some of the survivors have committed suicide in the ensuing year.
As for one of the hostages from the Nova festival, at the end of the film it's said that Hersh Goldberg-Polin was taken captive, his fate unknown, but now we know he's dead. Shot in a tunnel 65 feet below ground by Hamas.
This is what the Israelis are up against. This is what Hamas has been doing with all the money sent to aid the citizens of Gaza. This is the uncomfortable truth the pro-Palestinian people refuse to acknowledge.
But those damn Jews.
Loud-mouthed and entitled. Who do they think they are?
They're just like you. They want to live in peace and prosper. But this lifestyle was threatened. What do you want them to do?
I don't know if you can eradicate Hamas. I don't know if you can get rid of the tunnels. I don't know if you can get rid of hatred of Israel in Gaza. It's thorny.
But this war is not one-sided.
Let me ask you again, what would you do if you were attacked, if your loved ones died? What is enough for you to put down your arms, to stop fighting? You're never going to forget your fiancé. Are you ready to swallow your pain, put down your arms, get over it?
That's what I'm asking you.
And when you watch this movie you might ask yourself this question too.
But in an age where there's a firehose of media, it's hard to get people's attention for anything. Herd mentality rules. The American cowboy, the rugged individualism this nation was built upon, has been sacrificed for groupthink.
You're entitled to your own opinion.
But get back to me after you watch this movie.
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Visit the archive: http://lefsetz.com/wordpress/
--
Listen to the podcast:
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-Apple: https://apple.co/2ndmpvp
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If this happened in America...
We'd still be talking about it and we'd never get over it.
What you've got here is a documentary on the Nova Music Festival, you know, in the Israeli desert on October 7th, where people were killed, raped and taken hostage.
Now the truth is war is not like in the movies. There's no soundtrack. There's no arc. No buildup to a crescendo. The sun is out, the light is bright, and WHAT THE F*CK IS HAPPENING!
The rockets are in the air... And no one is concerned. First and foremost, many attendees are high. This is Israel, the land of the Iron Dome. You're safe, right?
Wrong.
Now we've been taught that not only is the United States the greatest country on the planet, but those in the rest of the world are the other. Maybe we'll let some people from England and Ireland pass, after all they speak the same language. But what is astounding, what you'll notice right away, is these people are just like you and me.
Assuming you're in your twenties.
This is before commitment, obligation. Before the big job. Before marriage and kids. When you'll drive all night to a location you just learned about to party until the sun rises, and even thereafter.
They've got tattoos, stringy hair. And they radiate intelligence and awareness and togetherness. This is not class warfare, this is kumbaya.
And then...
Not only are revolutions now televised, but so is war. Everybody's got a smartphone camera, documenting their life.
We remember the seven o'clock news footage of Vietnam. Canned for our consumption. There was a filter between what was going on over there and what we learned over here. As a matter of fact, stories would leak out and no one would believe them, because the U.S. was the almighty, we didn't lose wars, we had the money and the power, and it was just a matter of time before we conquered.
Only we didn't.
Turns out weapons are no match against hearts and minds.
So what happens is twenty three years ago the Twin Towers fall down, 2,753 people died, along with 184 at the Pentagon and 40 in Pennsylvania and...
In retaliation we invaded Iraq. Which held no responsibility for the terror attack.
But someone had to pay!
So if you watch this movie, and most people won't, because it's launching on 9/24 on Paramount+, a streaming outlet so crummy that the parent company was sold at a near fire sale price (but it is on BBC2 on 9/26), and we'll pay for Netflix, and Amazon Video is baked into Prime, but beyond that everything is expendable, and Paramount+ is way down the list of desirability.
And most people don't want to see this stuff.
First and foremost they hate the blood. There's a warning at the beginning of the film, but what ensued was not what I thought would be shown. You've got people literally running for their life, you've got people being shot... Once again, it's not orchestrated like a Hollywood movie. It's just hours and hours of...
Being on your own.
The IDF was caught flat-footed, no one knew what was going on. The attendees were calling law enforcement, and if they could even get through, the people they spoke to didn't believe them, certainly were not amped up about it.
So first and foremost you'll be confronted with the security lapse. The vaunted Israeli military... Failed. Someone was responsible.
And then there's Hamas.
When you see them cut the fence and storm through with their rifles, out for blood... I can't imagine anybody watching this and siding with them, unless you're a member of Hamas yourself.
This is what the Israelis are up against.
But somehow the script has been flipped. Israel is seen as the aggressor.
Not that I'm going to change your mind if you believe otherwise. This is a nation where Tucker Carlson proffers a Holocaust denier who lauds Adolf Hitler and denigrates Winston Churchill. And even the right wing "Wall Street Journal" has excoriated Carlson for this, but now he's got a Top Ten podcast and a chip on his shoulder after being sidelined by Murdoch so good luck getting him to change his ways.
And then there's Fox itself.
I recommend you read the article "How Fox News sane-washes Trump" in today's "Washington Post." Here's a bite:
"The quotes cited feel very Earth-2 to anyone not steeped in the right-wing ecosphere — 'big win,' 'best closing,' 'this race just got tighter.'"
Free link: https://wapo.st/4dm6pOV
My inbox is filled with stuff like this. Pointing to the number of views of Trump's debate closing on YouTube... That's one of the talking points, along with railing against ABC and the moderators, which makes no sense if Trump truly did clean the floor with Harris.
But my point here is in a world where there are multiple news sources, and people only consume what they agree with, one cannot change people's views on the war in Gaza. Impossible. I haven't been able to do it.
Then again, how important is it to most people?
Of course it's about antisemitism, because you don't see equivalent protests about the deaths in Syria and Sudan, but if you're a member of the group attacked...
Just like Black people tell their kids to beware of "driving while Black," we Jews are brought up being reminded by our parents about antisemitism.
Of course it's worse for the Blacks, because they're easily identifiable. But any minority ultimately comes up for abuse. It can be as simple as living in a northern city as opposed to the rural south, or even living in California. Not that I want to make all these equal, I just want to illustrate that if you believe you're immune, you're dreaming.
Or as Martin Niemöller so famously put it:
"First they came for the socialists, and I did not speak out—because I was not a socialist.
Then they came for the trade unionists, and I did not speak out—because I was not a trade unionist.
Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out—because I was not a Jew.
Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me."
So most people won't be incentivized to watch "We Will Dance Again." You've got to have Paramount+, and if you're not an EDM fan, or a Jew, why take the time?
Used to be different. In the three network era. If it made it on to TV, millions of people saw it. That's something we lost with cable and the internet.
But once you see Hamas in the movie... Your opinion might change. You still might talk about innocent Palestinians, but this is what the Israelis are up against. Not only did Hamas attack out of the blue without provocation, they employ a vitriol and complete lack of feeling for humanity that thank god we do not see in the U.S. But if you watch this movie, you do see it. Which is why people should.
I could give you my position on the Gaza conflict...
Hell, I'll tell you that I've got no time for Netanyahu and the settlements, but when terrorists are challenging your right to exist, what are you supposed to do?
From the river to the sea baby, they want Israel annihilated.
But you might not agree.
But that's the modern world, you've got your news and you assume mine is as narrow and biased as yours, therefore my opinion is dismissible. There is no truth, never mind agreement.
But these images don't lie.
We can't even convince Trump voters to investigate his behavior, what odds do we have that the views of the pro-Palestinian faction can be changed?
I will tell you that BDS was founded by the Palestinians, it took root on college campuses and the kids eating up their info are the same as the social media influencers on the payroll of Tenet Media, funded by the Russians. Better to be angry and take a side, and double-down, as opposed to try and survey the landscape and see what is really going on.
Am I going to defend everything Israel does?
Absolutely not. They were undercutting the Supreme Court before this all happened. And the religious right that has pushed the settlements and the rightward policies of the government...thank god their children now have to go into the army. What's fair is fair.
You've got talking heads in this movie say they'll never forget it. This day, what they saw. And you hear this all the time, but...
When Hamas is throwing hand grenade after hand grenade into your shelter, when you wake up and find out you're covered in dead bodies, no wonder people have survivor's guilt, no wonder some of the survivors have committed suicide in the ensuing year.
As for one of the hostages from the Nova festival, at the end of the film it's said that Hersh Goldberg-Polin was taken captive, his fate unknown, but now we know he's dead. Shot in a tunnel 65 feet below ground by Hamas.
This is what the Israelis are up against. This is what Hamas has been doing with all the money sent to aid the citizens of Gaza. This is the uncomfortable truth the pro-Palestinian people refuse to acknowledge.
But those damn Jews.
Loud-mouthed and entitled. Who do they think they are?
They're just like you. They want to live in peace and prosper. But this lifestyle was threatened. What do you want them to do?
I don't know if you can eradicate Hamas. I don't know if you can get rid of the tunnels. I don't know if you can get rid of hatred of Israel in Gaza. It's thorny.
But this war is not one-sided.
Let me ask you again, what would you do if you were attacked, if your loved ones died? What is enough for you to put down your arms, to stop fighting? You're never going to forget your fiancé. Are you ready to swallow your pain, put down your arms, get over it?
That's what I'm asking you.
And when you watch this movie you might ask yourself this question too.
But in an age where there's a firehose of media, it's hard to get people's attention for anything. Herd mentality rules. The American cowboy, the rugged individualism this nation was built upon, has been sacrificed for groupthink.
You're entitled to your own opinion.
But get back to me after you watch this movie.
--
Visit the archive: http://lefsetz.com/wordpress/
--
Listen to the podcast:
-iHeart: https://ihr.fm/2Gi5PFj
-Apple: https://apple.co/2ndmpvp
--
http://www.twitter.com/lefsetz
--
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Thursday 12 September 2024
They're Eating The Pets!
This is forever.
You can't manufacture virality. Remember "Gangnam Style"? People weren't even interested in the follow-up video. Quick, name it! (It's entitled "Gentleman," and if you know that you're entitled to automatic qualification for the next hobby horse nationals. Meanwhile, "Gentleman" does have 1.6 billion views on YouTube, but that does not mean its impact lasted. Everybody checked it out, and then... Meanwhile, "Gangnam Style" has 5.2 billion views. If you've seen the trick once, that's enough.)
But "Gangnam Style" hit before TikTok, before participatory media became everything. You just don't want the word to spread, you want people to use the basics to create something new, you want them involved, you want them to OWN IT!
You don't fight hoi polloi creation, you embrace it. The more time people dedicate to making clips with your content, the longer your content lasts.
So an individual spreading the word is not enough. Sure, if you're the very first, you can get props, assuming anybody knows, and most people don't care.
And sure, some of the eating pets pics and videos were released immediately and gained traction, but it took a little time for the great ones to appear...half a day? Remember the cycle is short. Which is why you want something that lasts forever, but this is rare.
Like last night's VMAs... Remember when the VMAs were not only the talk of the town, but the world? Milton Berle and RuPaul. A spontaneous interaction. The appearance of Pee Wee Herman not long after his arrest. Is anybody talking about last night's VMAs? I've seen news stories, but there's no social media virality, whereas I'm still cracking up over pics and videos of pets in my feeds.
And it's not only my feeds, it's my email and iMessages. Everybody wants to play. Because it's so ridiculous.
Do I think Trump's statements will negatively impact his campaign?
Well, so far nothing has.
Then again, the Democrats have changed their strategy. Rather than try to be serious, they're standing at arm's length and making fun of Trump. This started with "weird." And when Trump was going off the rails on Tuesday night, Kamala held her hands to her chin and smiled in a way school kids do when the object of their attention doesn't realize they're committing a faux pas, that they're a laughingstock.
Of course Trump doubled-down, by entering the media room and doing his own spin. Talking about how he won the debate and quoting numbers to that effect. When you're going down you don't fight, you take a break, hope that it blows over.
Now in order to go viral today not only do you have to create content that the public can utilize to create new content, you need to be in the game constantly.
This is a paradigm older acts complain about and younger acts don't think twice about.
You never know when your lucky break will come. You never know what will cause your lucky break. But talk to anybody who's ever had one and you'll find out...the action that caused the break was never the one they anticipated would do it. The well-planned action, crickets. The one you do reluctantly, on a whim, that spreads. When you're less invested, your attitude reflects this. It's the difference between a studio recording and a live one. The former is studied, worked over. The latter is spontaneous, you can capture lightning in a bottle.
And one thing that is at the heart of most virality is humanity. Click tracks and building a record instrument by instrument reduce this, as do multiple writers and remixes/effects. You want to be able to polish it, because getting it right out of the box, with just the basics, is so difficult to do.
The reason so much music does not resonate with the public is because it's lacking humanity. Not in the lyrics, although there can be a problem there too, but in the basic music. We're so far from the garden that people expect that four decade old 808 sound on every record. Where's the surprise?
Records are the essence of virality. If they contain that humanity and capture the zeitgeist. And this is why sixties tunes and classic rock over index in the culture. It was about experimentation, it was about being different, the public couldn't stop paying attention.
So Trump is in the news 24/7. And it's been working to his advantage. In that he still takes up most of the air in the media.
But Trump has veered so far from the truth that he was just begging for someone to push him over, he was ready to topple like Humpty Dumpty.
The "Access Hollywood" tape had legs, might have sunk Donald if it weren't for Comey reopening investigation into Hillary's server. But we're used to sex scandals. And the public can't participate in them, own them. But comedy?
Keep throwing things against the wall and something will stick. But you don't know what it is and if you've lost track of the plot beware.
Other than J.D. Vance, no one is defending the inane idea that immigrants are eating cats and dogs in Ohio. Furthermore, Trump and his team illustrated that despite Truth Social and his tweeting, they really don't have a grip on the internet. The net is full of b.s. and scams. And you can get away with forwarding this crap to like-minded, narrow-visioned friends, but when you put it into the world at large...it's going to be scrutinized, and debunked.
Turns out this election is not about the issues, but the penumbra, and Trump and his team didn't realize this. No one wants to hear about fracking, even taxes or the border, they want to see the two candidates wrestle, they're waiting for one to touch the third rail. And wrestling is a good analogy, in that it's scripted entertainment, fake. And Kamala was pretty scripted Tuesday night, and it was her off the cuff stuff that resonated most. As for Trump... When he went off script he lost all of us.
So if this stops being about Trump and Harris and what they stand for, and becomes about how laughable Trump is, that might be to Harris's advantage. No one wants to be associated with a laughingstock. Even Fox said Harris won the debate. Only in Trump's deranged mind was he the winner.
So, remember, ink is one thing, virality is another. Don't point to how many stories you've got on Google, pull up Instagram and TikTok and X and see how often it comes up in your feed. That's the measure of virality.
And this is what the mainstream doesn't understand and to the degree it does hates it. Because that means they've got no control. And let's be clear, they've got less control than any time in history!
Most people in America can't even name two songs by Taylor Swift, Kendrick Lamar, Drake, the Weeknd...but if you paid attention to the press, you'd think they're ubiquitous. But all of the public doesn't want the same thing.
But this election is binary, so there's amazing focus. And it's the only game we're all focused on. Forget music, forget the NFL, everybody's got an opinion on the election. And when Trump steps in it and then doubles-down on something that was not vetted that is almost impossible to believe, people are going to notice.
You remember the Kennedy assassination. You remember 9/11. You're going to remember that Trump said immigrants were eating cats and dogs.
Now if you're Tiny Tim, if you're an influencer, all publicity is good publicity. But if you're selling the aforementioned humanity, if you have any credibility, this is not true. Be wary of doing things off brand with the hopes of virality.
This is what we live for in a controlled country. The unexpected. The spontaneous.
We've had two big events this year.
One, Biden dropping out.
Two, Trump telling us that pets are in peril in Springfield, Ohio.
Trump gets the trophy here. He's the strongman who rang the bell at the county fair. But he doesn't even realize it. If he did, he'd make fun of himself, neutralize his words.
Trump is built for a passé era. When you could deny, deny, deny and stay above the fray. No one is above the fray anymore, we're all in it together, and if you don't have a sense of humor about yourself, you're ripe for excoriation.
I can't stop laughing at the posts. The pictures of cats dressed up as law enforcement. Others talking about the risk to pets. The warnings to stay away from Springfield.
This is genius.
But it's not helping Trump. He didn't have to lay out this craziness, but he's lost touch with the public.
Don't you do the same.
--
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--
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You can't manufacture virality. Remember "Gangnam Style"? People weren't even interested in the follow-up video. Quick, name it! (It's entitled "Gentleman," and if you know that you're entitled to automatic qualification for the next hobby horse nationals. Meanwhile, "Gentleman" does have 1.6 billion views on YouTube, but that does not mean its impact lasted. Everybody checked it out, and then... Meanwhile, "Gangnam Style" has 5.2 billion views. If you've seen the trick once, that's enough.)
But "Gangnam Style" hit before TikTok, before participatory media became everything. You just don't want the word to spread, you want people to use the basics to create something new, you want them involved, you want them to OWN IT!
You don't fight hoi polloi creation, you embrace it. The more time people dedicate to making clips with your content, the longer your content lasts.
So an individual spreading the word is not enough. Sure, if you're the very first, you can get props, assuming anybody knows, and most people don't care.
And sure, some of the eating pets pics and videos were released immediately and gained traction, but it took a little time for the great ones to appear...half a day? Remember the cycle is short. Which is why you want something that lasts forever, but this is rare.
Like last night's VMAs... Remember when the VMAs were not only the talk of the town, but the world? Milton Berle and RuPaul. A spontaneous interaction. The appearance of Pee Wee Herman not long after his arrest. Is anybody talking about last night's VMAs? I've seen news stories, but there's no social media virality, whereas I'm still cracking up over pics and videos of pets in my feeds.
And it's not only my feeds, it's my email and iMessages. Everybody wants to play. Because it's so ridiculous.
Do I think Trump's statements will negatively impact his campaign?
Well, so far nothing has.
Then again, the Democrats have changed their strategy. Rather than try to be serious, they're standing at arm's length and making fun of Trump. This started with "weird." And when Trump was going off the rails on Tuesday night, Kamala held her hands to her chin and smiled in a way school kids do when the object of their attention doesn't realize they're committing a faux pas, that they're a laughingstock.
Of course Trump doubled-down, by entering the media room and doing his own spin. Talking about how he won the debate and quoting numbers to that effect. When you're going down you don't fight, you take a break, hope that it blows over.
Now in order to go viral today not only do you have to create content that the public can utilize to create new content, you need to be in the game constantly.
This is a paradigm older acts complain about and younger acts don't think twice about.
You never know when your lucky break will come. You never know what will cause your lucky break. But talk to anybody who's ever had one and you'll find out...the action that caused the break was never the one they anticipated would do it. The well-planned action, crickets. The one you do reluctantly, on a whim, that spreads. When you're less invested, your attitude reflects this. It's the difference between a studio recording and a live one. The former is studied, worked over. The latter is spontaneous, you can capture lightning in a bottle.
And one thing that is at the heart of most virality is humanity. Click tracks and building a record instrument by instrument reduce this, as do multiple writers and remixes/effects. You want to be able to polish it, because getting it right out of the box, with just the basics, is so difficult to do.
The reason so much music does not resonate with the public is because it's lacking humanity. Not in the lyrics, although there can be a problem there too, but in the basic music. We're so far from the garden that people expect that four decade old 808 sound on every record. Where's the surprise?
Records are the essence of virality. If they contain that humanity and capture the zeitgeist. And this is why sixties tunes and classic rock over index in the culture. It was about experimentation, it was about being different, the public couldn't stop paying attention.
So Trump is in the news 24/7. And it's been working to his advantage. In that he still takes up most of the air in the media.
But Trump has veered so far from the truth that he was just begging for someone to push him over, he was ready to topple like Humpty Dumpty.
The "Access Hollywood" tape had legs, might have sunk Donald if it weren't for Comey reopening investigation into Hillary's server. But we're used to sex scandals. And the public can't participate in them, own them. But comedy?
Keep throwing things against the wall and something will stick. But you don't know what it is and if you've lost track of the plot beware.
Other than J.D. Vance, no one is defending the inane idea that immigrants are eating cats and dogs in Ohio. Furthermore, Trump and his team illustrated that despite Truth Social and his tweeting, they really don't have a grip on the internet. The net is full of b.s. and scams. And you can get away with forwarding this crap to like-minded, narrow-visioned friends, but when you put it into the world at large...it's going to be scrutinized, and debunked.
Turns out this election is not about the issues, but the penumbra, and Trump and his team didn't realize this. No one wants to hear about fracking, even taxes or the border, they want to see the two candidates wrestle, they're waiting for one to touch the third rail. And wrestling is a good analogy, in that it's scripted entertainment, fake. And Kamala was pretty scripted Tuesday night, and it was her off the cuff stuff that resonated most. As for Trump... When he went off script he lost all of us.
So if this stops being about Trump and Harris and what they stand for, and becomes about how laughable Trump is, that might be to Harris's advantage. No one wants to be associated with a laughingstock. Even Fox said Harris won the debate. Only in Trump's deranged mind was he the winner.
So, remember, ink is one thing, virality is another. Don't point to how many stories you've got on Google, pull up Instagram and TikTok and X and see how often it comes up in your feed. That's the measure of virality.
And this is what the mainstream doesn't understand and to the degree it does hates it. Because that means they've got no control. And let's be clear, they've got less control than any time in history!
Most people in America can't even name two songs by Taylor Swift, Kendrick Lamar, Drake, the Weeknd...but if you paid attention to the press, you'd think they're ubiquitous. But all of the public doesn't want the same thing.
But this election is binary, so there's amazing focus. And it's the only game we're all focused on. Forget music, forget the NFL, everybody's got an opinion on the election. And when Trump steps in it and then doubles-down on something that was not vetted that is almost impossible to believe, people are going to notice.
You remember the Kennedy assassination. You remember 9/11. You're going to remember that Trump said immigrants were eating cats and dogs.
Now if you're Tiny Tim, if you're an influencer, all publicity is good publicity. But if you're selling the aforementioned humanity, if you have any credibility, this is not true. Be wary of doing things off brand with the hopes of virality.
This is what we live for in a controlled country. The unexpected. The spontaneous.
We've had two big events this year.
One, Biden dropping out.
Two, Trump telling us that pets are in peril in Springfield, Ohio.
Trump gets the trophy here. He's the strongman who rang the bell at the county fair. But he doesn't even realize it. If he did, he'd make fun of himself, neutralize his words.
Trump is built for a passé era. When you could deny, deny, deny and stay above the fray. No one is above the fray anymore, we're all in it together, and if you don't have a sense of humor about yourself, you're ripe for excoriation.
I can't stop laughing at the posts. The pictures of cats dressed up as law enforcement. Others talking about the risk to pets. The warnings to stay away from Springfield.
This is genius.
But it's not helping Trump. He didn't have to lay out this craziness, but he's lost touch with the public.
Don't you do the same.
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Tony Levin-This Week's Podcast
Bassist for Peter Gabriel, King Crimson and so many more!
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/tony-levin/id1316200737?i=1000669276346
https://open.spotify.com/episode/6BarUGmAbx0C9uq0Ghzqyu?si=7zyQ1fsWQ5OC77QJAayS1A
https://www.iheart.com/podcast/1119-the-bob-lefsetz-podcast-30806836/episode/tony-levin-215229144/
https://music.amazon.com/podcasts/9ff4fb19-54d4-41ae-ae7a-8a6f8d3dafa8/episodes/b395e989-24c2-4ca5-83fb-1e14f32a592e/the-bob-lefsetz-podcast-tony-levin
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https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/tony-levin/id1316200737?i=1000669276346
https://open.spotify.com/episode/6BarUGmAbx0C9uq0Ghzqyu?si=7zyQ1fsWQ5OC77QJAayS1A
https://www.iheart.com/podcast/1119-the-bob-lefsetz-podcast-30806836/episode/tony-levin-215229144/
https://music.amazon.com/podcasts/9ff4fb19-54d4-41ae-ae7a-8a6f8d3dafa8/episodes/b395e989-24c2-4ca5-83fb-1e14f32a592e/the-bob-lefsetz-podcast-tony-levin
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Wednesday 11 September 2024
Mailbag-Live/Cowboy Carter/Sopranos
RE: COWBOY CARTER SNUBBED
You mentioned two venues on my home turf. To answer your question about Merriweather Post Pavilion - it's probably the most beloved large venue in the Baltimore / DC area. People DO like going there. It's a bit of a schlep from Baltimore, even more so from DC, but parking is easy, traffic is a breeze, and it's got a great vibe.
My wife and I are going there to see The National there next week and I made the mistake of checking tickets even though we bought ours long ago. The pavilion is mostly sold out, but some "Platinum" seats are available right in front for just about the same price we paid for row M. Totally flexed pricing. What a scam! This actually upsets me much more than scalping. I checked some of the other acts who are coming and tickets were incredibly plentiful. Very surprising.
You also mentioned Slipknot at CFG Arena. CFG is the newly refurbished version of our old dumpy Baltimore Civic Center where The Beatles played in 1964. Pharell, Irving Azoff and some other heavy hitters are behind it and they did an amazing job. We're attracting acts that traditionally would have skipped Baltimore for DC and Philly. Opening weekend at CFG was Bruce Springsteen and The Eagles! It's not just legacy acts; Lizzo played there and so have many other artists that we never would have gotten in the old days. It's truly amazing how this makeover has revitalized what used to be a third tier venue.
You mentioned Slipknot. I know nothing about them except that they played CFG Arena recently. How did I know? I was at the farmer's market the day after the show and tons of vendors were wearing Slipknot t-shirts! I asked many of them how they liked the show and about their opinion on the band. It was mind blowing - they LOVED them! It was like talking to Phish or Dead fans! One even gave me a free ear of corn....
Rich Madow
_____________________________________
I felt compelled to write in and defend Merriweather Post Pavilion, my favorite local venue here in Maryland. It's a great spot to see a show that's spent a fortune recently on modernization, is relatively easy to get to and doesn't charge extra for parking. I'm not sure why attendence has been down there this year, but it's certainly not the fault of the venue. As a counterpoint, I took my daughter to MPP to see Mitski last week, who sold out three nights in a row. Great show.
Oh yeah, I was also at the Slipknot show in Baltimore that you mentioned. I think they tapped into a great idea this year revisiting their first album not just by playing it in whole, but replicating the entire stage performance from 1999. For someone my age who was there in '99 it made it feel like a "can't miss" even though I hadn't seen them in years.
Thanks,
Jason Vandervliet
_____________________________________
Re: Merriweather - "do people just not want to go to this venue" ?
It's true, they don't. For those who live in NoVA, Montgomery County MD or NW DC, getting out to Merriweather in traffic is a pain in the ass, especially when there's so many other great options -The Anthem, 9:30, even Wolf Trap, the National Park where you can bring in your own booze. Merriweather has some great history - the only place Led Zep and the Who ever shared a bill - but history doesn't make a great show today.
Brian Howell
_____________________________________
I follow you on most of this, but whether you know them or not, Knocked Loose is doing 2500-5000 tickets in most markets. They're a monster direct support for Slipknot. Great packaging, both exciting live shows.
Nate Dorough
_____________________________________
Hey Bob, I think you should look under the hood with Knocked Loose. For being arguably the most metal/aggressive band out in the market currently, they ironically broke on tiktok. I'd imagine they got the Slipknot tour because the ticket sales from their latest headline tour were so impressive. For instance, they headlined The Shrine in LA which sold out quickly which is 6300 tickets. Everyone at the show looked between 20-25. Worth mentioning they also played Coachella last year with artists like Billy Eillish watching side stage. Hell, at the Shrine show you had Kourtney Kardashian watching side stage!
All of this just proves your point in your below email but even an act that you perceive as nobody's in Knocked Loose, to me I see a band that's exploding albeit in the heavy rock world.
Jeff Geasey
REYNOLDS MGMT
_____________________________________
Bob — thanks for your super entertaining and engaging emails. When I think about the CMA "snub" for Beyonce…I wonder how much did she show that she actually wanted to be a part of the country industry? A cowboy hat and a couple country songs won't cut it. The industry, rightly so, nominates those who are making waves in that particular industry—tours, press, and radio station visits. It didn't appear to me that Beyonce made much of an effort to be a part of the industry, unlike Post Malone who seems to have done it all so genuinely. Heck, Beyonce didn't do much for any market with this release.
Marcus Royce
_____________________________________
squeeze and boy george just cancelled their only georgia appearance at the new amphitheatre in macon. i've seen squeeze 5 times in the last 15 years, they sold out the kennedy center a few years back. but a 10k seat amphitheatre is not the right venue for this tour. just like chastain wasn't the right venue for crowded house a few weeks ago. agents and promoters need to be smarter with their venue choices.
lisa henley
RE: THE SOPRANOS DOCUMENTARY
It was better than I had hoped it would be. Even better. Like everybody else, I watched the series when it launched on HBO and was enthralled. Then the pandemic and streaming came so I watched it over. In order. No more than one episode per night and only four per week. After each viewing I read about the episode I had just watched in "The Sopranos Sessions" by Matt Zoller Seitz and Alan Sepinwall and savored the experience as I hadn't been able the first time. Now that I binged (only two episodes so no big deal) "Wise Guy: David Chase and The Sopranos" it's all coming back in big way. It's reasonable to conclude after all the time spent viewing, analyzing (psychologically and otherwise) and discussing the series — a word that falls short of really describing what it is.. it's more of a Norsk saga set in New Jersey rather than Valhalla — this is the one of the greatest works of art ever devised by mortals. You got a problem with that?
Bob Merlis
_____________________________________
This is a fantastic article on an equally fantastic documentary. When it first came out, the music industry was buzzing. At the time, I was working at BMG, and my colleague Ken Levy at Arista Records was also closely following the show. We invited the cast to an Eurythmics showcase, and almost the entire cast showed up, including the producers. That marked the beginning of a great relationship between us and the show.
We started sending music to be placed in the show, supplying posters for Meadow's room, and even collaborating with some of the actors on their own music projects (like Dominic Chianese). It was a golden era for us—an amazing show, a stellar soundtrack, and a team of people who truly understood the hustle of the music business. Alex Gibney did a brilliant job with this documentary too. Thanks Bob for celebrating this bygone era. Scott Richman
_____________________________________
That's a different version of "Im Not Like Everybody Else" than the one on The Great Lost Kinks Album (c 1973?)
Best
Jamie Kitman
This is the live version from "To the Bone" used in "The Sopranos": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OzQEoSDURdA
_____________________________________
David Chase's Italian name is DeCesare, I grew up with him.
Bob Zachary
_____________________________________
From: Robin Green
Hi Bob, I feel compelled to tell you that the scenes in the doc which were positioned to look like a writers room were not - those were production meetings and the women at the table besides me were from the wardrobe and prop departments. There was anyway at no time in my memory or Mitch's a camera recording in the writers room for the same reason we didn't have assistants in there, privacy.
Loved what you said about the doc and glad you liked it. I cud too. They really pursued me to be in it and I'm glad I sat down with Alex. But didn't I look cute 25 years ago with my bangs and little white shirts? Love, Robin
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You mentioned two venues on my home turf. To answer your question about Merriweather Post Pavilion - it's probably the most beloved large venue in the Baltimore / DC area. People DO like going there. It's a bit of a schlep from Baltimore, even more so from DC, but parking is easy, traffic is a breeze, and it's got a great vibe.
My wife and I are going there to see The National there next week and I made the mistake of checking tickets even though we bought ours long ago. The pavilion is mostly sold out, but some "Platinum" seats are available right in front for just about the same price we paid for row M. Totally flexed pricing. What a scam! This actually upsets me much more than scalping. I checked some of the other acts who are coming and tickets were incredibly plentiful. Very surprising.
You also mentioned Slipknot at CFG Arena. CFG is the newly refurbished version of our old dumpy Baltimore Civic Center where The Beatles played in 1964. Pharell, Irving Azoff and some other heavy hitters are behind it and they did an amazing job. We're attracting acts that traditionally would have skipped Baltimore for DC and Philly. Opening weekend at CFG was Bruce Springsteen and The Eagles! It's not just legacy acts; Lizzo played there and so have many other artists that we never would have gotten in the old days. It's truly amazing how this makeover has revitalized what used to be a third tier venue.
You mentioned Slipknot. I know nothing about them except that they played CFG Arena recently. How did I know? I was at the farmer's market the day after the show and tons of vendors were wearing Slipknot t-shirts! I asked many of them how they liked the show and about their opinion on the band. It was mind blowing - they LOVED them! It was like talking to Phish or Dead fans! One even gave me a free ear of corn....
Rich Madow
_____________________________________
I felt compelled to write in and defend Merriweather Post Pavilion, my favorite local venue here in Maryland. It's a great spot to see a show that's spent a fortune recently on modernization, is relatively easy to get to and doesn't charge extra for parking. I'm not sure why attendence has been down there this year, but it's certainly not the fault of the venue. As a counterpoint, I took my daughter to MPP to see Mitski last week, who sold out three nights in a row. Great show.
Oh yeah, I was also at the Slipknot show in Baltimore that you mentioned. I think they tapped into a great idea this year revisiting their first album not just by playing it in whole, but replicating the entire stage performance from 1999. For someone my age who was there in '99 it made it feel like a "can't miss" even though I hadn't seen them in years.
Thanks,
Jason Vandervliet
_____________________________________
Re: Merriweather - "do people just not want to go to this venue" ?
It's true, they don't. For those who live in NoVA, Montgomery County MD or NW DC, getting out to Merriweather in traffic is a pain in the ass, especially when there's so many other great options -The Anthem, 9:30, even Wolf Trap, the National Park where you can bring in your own booze. Merriweather has some great history - the only place Led Zep and the Who ever shared a bill - but history doesn't make a great show today.
Brian Howell
_____________________________________
I follow you on most of this, but whether you know them or not, Knocked Loose is doing 2500-5000 tickets in most markets. They're a monster direct support for Slipknot. Great packaging, both exciting live shows.
Nate Dorough
_____________________________________
Hey Bob, I think you should look under the hood with Knocked Loose. For being arguably the most metal/aggressive band out in the market currently, they ironically broke on tiktok. I'd imagine they got the Slipknot tour because the ticket sales from their latest headline tour were so impressive. For instance, they headlined The Shrine in LA which sold out quickly which is 6300 tickets. Everyone at the show looked between 20-25. Worth mentioning they also played Coachella last year with artists like Billy Eillish watching side stage. Hell, at the Shrine show you had Kourtney Kardashian watching side stage!
All of this just proves your point in your below email but even an act that you perceive as nobody's in Knocked Loose, to me I see a band that's exploding albeit in the heavy rock world.
Jeff Geasey
REYNOLDS MGMT
_____________________________________
Bob — thanks for your super entertaining and engaging emails. When I think about the CMA "snub" for Beyonce…I wonder how much did she show that she actually wanted to be a part of the country industry? A cowboy hat and a couple country songs won't cut it. The industry, rightly so, nominates those who are making waves in that particular industry—tours, press, and radio station visits. It didn't appear to me that Beyonce made much of an effort to be a part of the industry, unlike Post Malone who seems to have done it all so genuinely. Heck, Beyonce didn't do much for any market with this release.
Marcus Royce
_____________________________________
squeeze and boy george just cancelled their only georgia appearance at the new amphitheatre in macon. i've seen squeeze 5 times in the last 15 years, they sold out the kennedy center a few years back. but a 10k seat amphitheatre is not the right venue for this tour. just like chastain wasn't the right venue for crowded house a few weeks ago. agents and promoters need to be smarter with their venue choices.
lisa henley
RE: THE SOPRANOS DOCUMENTARY
It was better than I had hoped it would be. Even better. Like everybody else, I watched the series when it launched on HBO and was enthralled. Then the pandemic and streaming came so I watched it over. In order. No more than one episode per night and only four per week. After each viewing I read about the episode I had just watched in "The Sopranos Sessions" by Matt Zoller Seitz and Alan Sepinwall and savored the experience as I hadn't been able the first time. Now that I binged (only two episodes so no big deal) "Wise Guy: David Chase and The Sopranos" it's all coming back in big way. It's reasonable to conclude after all the time spent viewing, analyzing (psychologically and otherwise) and discussing the series — a word that falls short of really describing what it is.. it's more of a Norsk saga set in New Jersey rather than Valhalla — this is the one of the greatest works of art ever devised by mortals. You got a problem with that?
Bob Merlis
_____________________________________
This is a fantastic article on an equally fantastic documentary. When it first came out, the music industry was buzzing. At the time, I was working at BMG, and my colleague Ken Levy at Arista Records was also closely following the show. We invited the cast to an Eurythmics showcase, and almost the entire cast showed up, including the producers. That marked the beginning of a great relationship between us and the show.
We started sending music to be placed in the show, supplying posters for Meadow's room, and even collaborating with some of the actors on their own music projects (like Dominic Chianese). It was a golden era for us—an amazing show, a stellar soundtrack, and a team of people who truly understood the hustle of the music business. Alex Gibney did a brilliant job with this documentary too. Thanks Bob for celebrating this bygone era. Scott Richman
_____________________________________
That's a different version of "Im Not Like Everybody Else" than the one on The Great Lost Kinks Album (c 1973?)
Best
Jamie Kitman
This is the live version from "To the Bone" used in "The Sopranos": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OzQEoSDURdA
_____________________________________
David Chase's Italian name is DeCesare, I grew up with him.
Bob Zachary
_____________________________________
From: Robin Green
Hi Bob, I feel compelled to tell you that the scenes in the doc which were positioned to look like a writers room were not - those were production meetings and the women at the table besides me were from the wardrobe and prop departments. There was anyway at no time in my memory or Mitch's a camera recording in the writers room for the same reason we didn't have assistants in there, privacy.
Loved what you said about the doc and glad you liked it. I cud too. They really pursued me to be in it and I'm glad I sat down with Alex. But didn't I look cute 25 years ago with my bangs and little white shirts? Love, Robin
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Update-Grohl/Swift
DAVE GROHL'S BABY ANNOUCEMENT
Typical rock star behavior, but totally off brand for Mr. Grohl, America's sweetheart, the rock statesman in counterbalance to Questlove's hip-hop statesman.
Dave may have started out as a punk, but he's appeared warm and fuzzy for years, even promoting a book by his mother!
And didn't he ever hear of a condom?
Of course condoms can break, and I don't know the specifics here, but it's not a good look.
Criminal? No. But there will be an effect on his family. Didn't Moon Zappa's book tell us this? Frank was a notorious "swordsman" as Ahmet once said to me.
On one hand, it's good for rock and roll. It never changes, even if it's on life support.
Rock stars are not like you and me. They don't play by the same rules. They're offered opportunities we are not. And it's hard not to take advantage of them.
But this doesn't square with a guy who parades his children and talks about his home life, who is constantly smiling like a regular guy. He's not. He's a rock star. Complicated, in a world of temptations.
Do I think this will hurt the Foo Fighters, Grohl's musical career?
Not a whit.
But will the press continue to look to him for answers... That will be diminished, I guarantee you. The press runs from scandals, unless they're getting inside, salacious details. Outlets don't want to employ the words of tainted celebrities, it undercuts their authority, the actions taint the words, and ultimately the publications.
Then again, what is the job of a rock star... To be a wholesome family man or to make music?
The latter.
P.S. I give Grohl credit for announcing the news, coming out ahead of the tabloids. Like Letterman. But there was no baby involved in that Dave's case. And the kid makes a difference.
TAYLOR SWIFT'S ENDORSEMENT OF KAMALA HARRIS
For someone supposedly so publicity savvy, to announce on the same night as the debate was a gross miscalculation. You want to make your statement when it will get the most ink, the most attention, when it will have the most impact and spread. You don't want to compete with another news story.
Will Swift's endorsement of Kamala have a definitive effect?
Could be, but nowhere near the degree everybody is anticipating.
People follow celebrities in fashion, but when it comes to core beliefs... Hell, even Chris Christie is a giant Springsteen fan.
This was completely mishandled. Swift should have announced on the VMAs, where she will look big in contrast to all the gnats appearing.
She should have waited for a slow news day.
This is PR 101. Just like governments release negative news on Friday afternoons, when people are leaving the office and are in weekend mode.
And the post did not look spontaneous, but premeditated.
Now the story is overshadowed by all the reporting about last night's debate.
Swift normally wants to own the stage, she sets everything up for that.
But not this time.
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Typical rock star behavior, but totally off brand for Mr. Grohl, America's sweetheart, the rock statesman in counterbalance to Questlove's hip-hop statesman.
Dave may have started out as a punk, but he's appeared warm and fuzzy for years, even promoting a book by his mother!
And didn't he ever hear of a condom?
Of course condoms can break, and I don't know the specifics here, but it's not a good look.
Criminal? No. But there will be an effect on his family. Didn't Moon Zappa's book tell us this? Frank was a notorious "swordsman" as Ahmet once said to me.
On one hand, it's good for rock and roll. It never changes, even if it's on life support.
Rock stars are not like you and me. They don't play by the same rules. They're offered opportunities we are not. And it's hard not to take advantage of them.
But this doesn't square with a guy who parades his children and talks about his home life, who is constantly smiling like a regular guy. He's not. He's a rock star. Complicated, in a world of temptations.
Do I think this will hurt the Foo Fighters, Grohl's musical career?
Not a whit.
But will the press continue to look to him for answers... That will be diminished, I guarantee you. The press runs from scandals, unless they're getting inside, salacious details. Outlets don't want to employ the words of tainted celebrities, it undercuts their authority, the actions taint the words, and ultimately the publications.
Then again, what is the job of a rock star... To be a wholesome family man or to make music?
The latter.
P.S. I give Grohl credit for announcing the news, coming out ahead of the tabloids. Like Letterman. But there was no baby involved in that Dave's case. And the kid makes a difference.
TAYLOR SWIFT'S ENDORSEMENT OF KAMALA HARRIS
For someone supposedly so publicity savvy, to announce on the same night as the debate was a gross miscalculation. You want to make your statement when it will get the most ink, the most attention, when it will have the most impact and spread. You don't want to compete with another news story.
Will Swift's endorsement of Kamala have a definitive effect?
Could be, but nowhere near the degree everybody is anticipating.
People follow celebrities in fashion, but when it comes to core beliefs... Hell, even Chris Christie is a giant Springsteen fan.
This was completely mishandled. Swift should have announced on the VMAs, where she will look big in contrast to all the gnats appearing.
She should have waited for a slow news day.
This is PR 101. Just like governments release negative news on Friday afternoons, when people are leaving the office and are in weekend mode.
And the post did not look spontaneous, but premeditated.
Now the story is overshadowed by all the reporting about last night's debate.
Swift normally wants to own the stage, she sets everything up for that.
But not this time.
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Tuesday 10 September 2024
The Debate
Answer the damn question!
This was why I was wary of Kamala being the candidate. She's tainted by Biden's record, which I actually think is pretty good. She's not fresh, like Whitmer or Shapiro or Pritzker, who could run away from Biden's policies, but Kamala is stuck with them.
But she is now the candidate, so let's move on from that.
The very first question, re the above, she avoided. It was painful.
And contrary to scuttlebutt, Donald Trump spoke English, he did not look demented. His sentences made sense, at least in English. But then he went INSANE!
If you're scoring at home, Harris won, hands down.
But we're not scoring at home, we're having an election in November, and that's the only battle that counts.
The biggest news this week came on Sunday, when the "New York Times"/Siena College poll put Harris behind. Free link: https://t.ly/T47SB
Now if you live online, you know this has engendered amazing pushback. There has been an evaluation of polling in general. But I think it's a good thing that Harris was behind, because hopefully this will make Democrats WAKE UP!
They think it's in the bag. If you haven't had a conversation with a self-satisfied Democrat since Kamala got the nomination, you're a MAGA devotee living in a bubble. It's been an endless victory lap. In its own way as myopic as the belief in Hillary back in 2016. Trump can't possibly win! Nobody I know will vote for him. It's a laugh, he's toast!
But Trump could very well win this election.
Too many people are living in a bubble. Actually, that's part of why we got into this mess. The so-called "elites" who believe they know better lording it over the "ignorant" blue collar voters. Let's be clear, NAFTA screwed the union members, jobs evaporated. One can argue whether the jobs needed to go, but one thing is for sure, high-paying workers who owned vacation homes and boats, with two cars in the driveway, were suddenly forced to do service jobs for under twenty bucks an hour. And that's quite a comedown. Good luck paying your bills on that.
Of course the minimum wage should be higher, but this election is not about the issues. Let me tell you once again, THIS ELECTION IS NOT ABOUT THE ISSUES! This election is about emotions. How people feel.
And a lot of people feel negatively about Biden and Harris. Period.
But that vitriol is nowhere near the hatred of Trump. But the game is rigged, it's not the popular vote that matters, but the Electoral College, and Trump has a very good chance there.
Which means the Democrats should be afraid, they should be very afraid.
Now as a result of this NYT/Siena poll, there's been a bit of a readjustment, and hopefully it will continue. Trump's win in 2016 was a surprise. Everything's in evidence today. This is not a walk in the park, a slam dunk for Harris, she's going to have to eke out a victory. And if you think otherwise, you just don't interact with enough Trump voters.
Forget the MAGA people. I was at UCLA Hospital for a checkup today. The doctor, educated and of great status in his field, said he was voting for Trump. He voted for him in 2016 but voted for Biden in 2020. He thought Biden would bring the country together, but now he believes the country is further apart so he's back in the Trump camp.
Let's not be logical. Let's not even bother to be incredulous. This is how that guy feels.
Forget the idiots in the social media videos. Ignorance on parade. You'd be stunned how many people who are otherwise reasonable are in the Trump camp. Furthermore, many of them don't vocalize it, which is why James Carville says the Democrats have to win by three points to ensure Electoral College victory.
But nobody wants to hear that. They want to take Nate Silver off the table because he works for a company in which Peter Thiel has invested. The left is as bad as the right, and it pains me. Is this how far we've come, that's it's attack politics all day long, that the facts don't matter, where there are no agreed upon facts?
Looks like it.
Which is why emotions, feelings are so important.
I'd love to tell you I can warm up to Kamala Harris. But I just don't feel it. Once again, it's emotions. I'm not quite sure who she is. The smartest girl in school, the cool girl, I can't find a slot. Tim Walz, midwestern teacher. Biden? Lifelong pol. Trump? Rich real estate baron who has skated on daddy's money. But Kamala?
Don't bother to push back. Because nothing you say can convince me otherwise. It's how I feel, and you can't argue with feelings.
I knew who Hillary Clinton was. An educated, intelligent wonk. Did she equivocate, triangulate, sure. But I had no doubt she could run the country. I voted for her. But it turns out enough people in toss-up states felt otherwise, and she lost.
I just bring up my feelings re Kamala to say that if I, a dyed in the wool Democrat, who is going to vote for Harris no matter what, I'm all in, am not sold on her emotionally, how many other people are not?
And this election comes down to very few people. A tiny number.
I'm burned out on the news. It's insane. We had to listen to three days of predictions on this debate. Reams and reams of ink. Or pixels. All irrelevant.
It's a media circle jerk. The for profit TV news loves it, the horse race, it sells advertising. And the newspapers are not much better.
Do you really think the average person cares about the issues?
I'll make it very clear, the only people who really care about the issues are those who've already decided who they're going to vote for!
All this malarkey over tips and tariffs, the media and those who live for politics eat this stuff up, the rest of the public have lives, they don't want to waste their time.
And nowhere in the debate prep I read did anybody nail what happened tonight.
First and foremost, the cutting off of mics worked for Kamala. It let Trump's insanity stand alone, it wasn't a constant harangue, you could actually sit with what he had to say, and oftentimes it was so crazy.
Kamala evaded right off the bat.
But then Trump trumped her. He just repeated immigration issues over and over and over again. It was like the moderators weren't even there.
And the moderators did call b.s. on some of Trump's lies.
What I like best is after birth abortions. What exactly are those again?
And the trope that immigrants are eating pets. Sounds like something from "The Onion." The elected official denied it. And Trump said that man was lying! There were people on TV saying otherwise! I mean you've got to believe what you see on television, right? No one of voting age believes that, NO ONE!
And then Kamala shined doing the one thing everybody told her not to do, which was act like a prosecutor.
The Democrats are wimps. Afraid of offending anyone.
When Harris stopped pussyfooting, avoiding questions, she drilled into Trump and it was a pleasure to watch. The key issue, ABORTION! This hangs on Trump's neck, he cannot escape it.
And then came the Affordable Care Act.
After about fifteen minutes Trump was so off his game... Irrelevant of what he was saying, oftentimes non-responsive and incorrect, Trump became so intense, so obstinate, that the only thing that could go through your brain was...THIS GUY CAN'T BE PRESIDENT!
If some controlled debate, wherein he stood equally with his opponent, made him lose his sh*t, how would it be if he was pressured?
By foreign leaders, like Orbán.
How does this right wing card continue to be played. Harris didn't nail Trump on this, but she should have. The fact that Trump and Carlson worship Orbán is all you need to know. Because nobody in America wants to live under Orbán, NO ONE! Dictators are loyal to no one, everybody's expendable, just like those who worked for Trump. On a whim he fired people. And his argument against Harris and Biden was they didn't fire enough people? That may work on "The Apprentice," but in real life no one wants to lose their job. And the truth is it's very hard to fire someone today. And on some level that's sad, but if people lose their job the safety net might not catch them, future opportunities might be decimated and they'll come back and shoot up the workplace. We used to call it "going postal," but now it happens everywhere.
The border! Minnesota! Crime! On and on Trump went. Almost always inaccurately, he looked like the Nazi in "The Producers."
And those on the right can save their blowback. This is your guy. You nominated him. If you're pissed that I'm pointing out truths, how do you feel about Trump excoriating everybody in his path unless they kiss his ass? No one likes to live like this.
So you have to accept Trump on faith. As a two-dimensional character. But that is untrue, he's three-dimensional. Not demented, but definitely insane.
So... Kamala should win, right?
Don't be so sure.
This election is really going to come down to turnout. That's probably enough for Kamala to win. But, the Republicans have stricken voters from the rolls, they're doing everything to suppress the vote, in Georgia you have to wait in line to vote for hours if you're Black, but if you're white you can stroll right in.
We are not going to fix the system by November. If anything, the Republicans are trying to put their thumb even heavier on the scale.
Oh yeah, Trump avoiding the question on January 6th. Can you tell me how that could win over an undecided voter?
But once again, almost everybody has decided.
And what we've learned is the media likes the action.
And I've got no faith in the party brass, on either side. On the right, it's all MAGA, all the time. But on the left, these are the people who tried to convince us Biden hadn't lost a step and could win, who held back the truth from us, and then we saw the truth on national TV in the previous debate.
Which Trump is still contesting. Like they said after Inauguration Day 2017, the only place where Hillary is President is on Fox News.
Actually, it all started tonight with Trump taking the bait about crowd size. He couldn't be the bigger person, he couldn't let it go. He had to throw the issues overboard to lie about the size of his crowd.
Then you knew this guy shouldn't be president.
I'm just hoping enough people saw Donald's performance tonight and felt this way.
But the Jets won the Super Bowl in 1969.
It ain't over until it's over.
We've already learned that this year, with Biden's pull out.
Don't think you know how it's going to work out.
And please do talk politics. Listen to the other side. And then discuss the issues. No one is going to change their view on the spot, but after they leave they think about what you have to say. If you're reasonable and make reasonable arguments, they'll percolate in the other person's brain and...
This is not about MAGA. Forget MAGA.
This is about the very few undecideds in the middle.
And those who think their vote doesn't count. IT DOES! 2000 proved that.
So tonight was entertainment. Not radically different from the WWE.
It was nowhere near as important as the media make it out to be.
But they were both together on stage, so you could see the contrast. Whereas in the future they'll both be alone with their spin.
Once again, Harris won. By a TKO, not a complete knockout.
But it doesn't matter.
I felt good about Harris when she pressed the case. Did enough of the few undecideds feel this way?
Or can people still not understand why we have inflation, at the lowest rate in the world. Do people still want change. Because Trump did make a pretty good case that a vote for Harris was a vote for the same damn thing, more Biden. But a vote for Trump is...SCARY!
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This was why I was wary of Kamala being the candidate. She's tainted by Biden's record, which I actually think is pretty good. She's not fresh, like Whitmer or Shapiro or Pritzker, who could run away from Biden's policies, but Kamala is stuck with them.
But she is now the candidate, so let's move on from that.
The very first question, re the above, she avoided. It was painful.
And contrary to scuttlebutt, Donald Trump spoke English, he did not look demented. His sentences made sense, at least in English. But then he went INSANE!
If you're scoring at home, Harris won, hands down.
But we're not scoring at home, we're having an election in November, and that's the only battle that counts.
The biggest news this week came on Sunday, when the "New York Times"/Siena College poll put Harris behind. Free link: https://t.ly/T47SB
Now if you live online, you know this has engendered amazing pushback. There has been an evaluation of polling in general. But I think it's a good thing that Harris was behind, because hopefully this will make Democrats WAKE UP!
They think it's in the bag. If you haven't had a conversation with a self-satisfied Democrat since Kamala got the nomination, you're a MAGA devotee living in a bubble. It's been an endless victory lap. In its own way as myopic as the belief in Hillary back in 2016. Trump can't possibly win! Nobody I know will vote for him. It's a laugh, he's toast!
But Trump could very well win this election.
Too many people are living in a bubble. Actually, that's part of why we got into this mess. The so-called "elites" who believe they know better lording it over the "ignorant" blue collar voters. Let's be clear, NAFTA screwed the union members, jobs evaporated. One can argue whether the jobs needed to go, but one thing is for sure, high-paying workers who owned vacation homes and boats, with two cars in the driveway, were suddenly forced to do service jobs for under twenty bucks an hour. And that's quite a comedown. Good luck paying your bills on that.
Of course the minimum wage should be higher, but this election is not about the issues. Let me tell you once again, THIS ELECTION IS NOT ABOUT THE ISSUES! This election is about emotions. How people feel.
And a lot of people feel negatively about Biden and Harris. Period.
But that vitriol is nowhere near the hatred of Trump. But the game is rigged, it's not the popular vote that matters, but the Electoral College, and Trump has a very good chance there.
Which means the Democrats should be afraid, they should be very afraid.
Now as a result of this NYT/Siena poll, there's been a bit of a readjustment, and hopefully it will continue. Trump's win in 2016 was a surprise. Everything's in evidence today. This is not a walk in the park, a slam dunk for Harris, she's going to have to eke out a victory. And if you think otherwise, you just don't interact with enough Trump voters.
Forget the MAGA people. I was at UCLA Hospital for a checkup today. The doctor, educated and of great status in his field, said he was voting for Trump. He voted for him in 2016 but voted for Biden in 2020. He thought Biden would bring the country together, but now he believes the country is further apart so he's back in the Trump camp.
Let's not be logical. Let's not even bother to be incredulous. This is how that guy feels.
Forget the idiots in the social media videos. Ignorance on parade. You'd be stunned how many people who are otherwise reasonable are in the Trump camp. Furthermore, many of them don't vocalize it, which is why James Carville says the Democrats have to win by three points to ensure Electoral College victory.
But nobody wants to hear that. They want to take Nate Silver off the table because he works for a company in which Peter Thiel has invested. The left is as bad as the right, and it pains me. Is this how far we've come, that's it's attack politics all day long, that the facts don't matter, where there are no agreed upon facts?
Looks like it.
Which is why emotions, feelings are so important.
I'd love to tell you I can warm up to Kamala Harris. But I just don't feel it. Once again, it's emotions. I'm not quite sure who she is. The smartest girl in school, the cool girl, I can't find a slot. Tim Walz, midwestern teacher. Biden? Lifelong pol. Trump? Rich real estate baron who has skated on daddy's money. But Kamala?
Don't bother to push back. Because nothing you say can convince me otherwise. It's how I feel, and you can't argue with feelings.
I knew who Hillary Clinton was. An educated, intelligent wonk. Did she equivocate, triangulate, sure. But I had no doubt she could run the country. I voted for her. But it turns out enough people in toss-up states felt otherwise, and she lost.
I just bring up my feelings re Kamala to say that if I, a dyed in the wool Democrat, who is going to vote for Harris no matter what, I'm all in, am not sold on her emotionally, how many other people are not?
And this election comes down to very few people. A tiny number.
I'm burned out on the news. It's insane. We had to listen to three days of predictions on this debate. Reams and reams of ink. Or pixels. All irrelevant.
It's a media circle jerk. The for profit TV news loves it, the horse race, it sells advertising. And the newspapers are not much better.
Do you really think the average person cares about the issues?
I'll make it very clear, the only people who really care about the issues are those who've already decided who they're going to vote for!
All this malarkey over tips and tariffs, the media and those who live for politics eat this stuff up, the rest of the public have lives, they don't want to waste their time.
And nowhere in the debate prep I read did anybody nail what happened tonight.
First and foremost, the cutting off of mics worked for Kamala. It let Trump's insanity stand alone, it wasn't a constant harangue, you could actually sit with what he had to say, and oftentimes it was so crazy.
Kamala evaded right off the bat.
But then Trump trumped her. He just repeated immigration issues over and over and over again. It was like the moderators weren't even there.
And the moderators did call b.s. on some of Trump's lies.
What I like best is after birth abortions. What exactly are those again?
And the trope that immigrants are eating pets. Sounds like something from "The Onion." The elected official denied it. And Trump said that man was lying! There were people on TV saying otherwise! I mean you've got to believe what you see on television, right? No one of voting age believes that, NO ONE!
And then Kamala shined doing the one thing everybody told her not to do, which was act like a prosecutor.
The Democrats are wimps. Afraid of offending anyone.
When Harris stopped pussyfooting, avoiding questions, she drilled into Trump and it was a pleasure to watch. The key issue, ABORTION! This hangs on Trump's neck, he cannot escape it.
And then came the Affordable Care Act.
After about fifteen minutes Trump was so off his game... Irrelevant of what he was saying, oftentimes non-responsive and incorrect, Trump became so intense, so obstinate, that the only thing that could go through your brain was...THIS GUY CAN'T BE PRESIDENT!
If some controlled debate, wherein he stood equally with his opponent, made him lose his sh*t, how would it be if he was pressured?
By foreign leaders, like Orbán.
How does this right wing card continue to be played. Harris didn't nail Trump on this, but she should have. The fact that Trump and Carlson worship Orbán is all you need to know. Because nobody in America wants to live under Orbán, NO ONE! Dictators are loyal to no one, everybody's expendable, just like those who worked for Trump. On a whim he fired people. And his argument against Harris and Biden was they didn't fire enough people? That may work on "The Apprentice," but in real life no one wants to lose their job. And the truth is it's very hard to fire someone today. And on some level that's sad, but if people lose their job the safety net might not catch them, future opportunities might be decimated and they'll come back and shoot up the workplace. We used to call it "going postal," but now it happens everywhere.
The border! Minnesota! Crime! On and on Trump went. Almost always inaccurately, he looked like the Nazi in "The Producers."
And those on the right can save their blowback. This is your guy. You nominated him. If you're pissed that I'm pointing out truths, how do you feel about Trump excoriating everybody in his path unless they kiss his ass? No one likes to live like this.
So you have to accept Trump on faith. As a two-dimensional character. But that is untrue, he's three-dimensional. Not demented, but definitely insane.
So... Kamala should win, right?
Don't be so sure.
This election is really going to come down to turnout. That's probably enough for Kamala to win. But, the Republicans have stricken voters from the rolls, they're doing everything to suppress the vote, in Georgia you have to wait in line to vote for hours if you're Black, but if you're white you can stroll right in.
We are not going to fix the system by November. If anything, the Republicans are trying to put their thumb even heavier on the scale.
Oh yeah, Trump avoiding the question on January 6th. Can you tell me how that could win over an undecided voter?
But once again, almost everybody has decided.
And what we've learned is the media likes the action.
And I've got no faith in the party brass, on either side. On the right, it's all MAGA, all the time. But on the left, these are the people who tried to convince us Biden hadn't lost a step and could win, who held back the truth from us, and then we saw the truth on national TV in the previous debate.
Which Trump is still contesting. Like they said after Inauguration Day 2017, the only place where Hillary is President is on Fox News.
Actually, it all started tonight with Trump taking the bait about crowd size. He couldn't be the bigger person, he couldn't let it go. He had to throw the issues overboard to lie about the size of his crowd.
Then you knew this guy shouldn't be president.
I'm just hoping enough people saw Donald's performance tonight and felt this way.
But the Jets won the Super Bowl in 1969.
It ain't over until it's over.
We've already learned that this year, with Biden's pull out.
Don't think you know how it's going to work out.
And please do talk politics. Listen to the other side. And then discuss the issues. No one is going to change their view on the spot, but after they leave they think about what you have to say. If you're reasonable and make reasonable arguments, they'll percolate in the other person's brain and...
This is not about MAGA. Forget MAGA.
This is about the very few undecideds in the middle.
And those who think their vote doesn't count. IT DOES! 2000 proved that.
So tonight was entertainment. Not radically different from the WWE.
It was nowhere near as important as the media make it out to be.
But they were both together on stage, so you could see the contrast. Whereas in the future they'll both be alone with their spin.
Once again, Harris won. By a TKO, not a complete knockout.
But it doesn't matter.
I felt good about Harris when she pressed the case. Did enough of the few undecideds feel this way?
Or can people still not understand why we have inflation, at the lowest rate in the world. Do people still want change. Because Trump did make a pretty good case that a vote for Harris was a vote for the same damn thing, more Biden. But a vote for Trump is...SCARY!
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Cowboy Carter Snubbed
But Shaboozey got nominated for a CMA.
Can the public accept that "Cowboy Carter" and its single "Texas Hold 'Em" were not country hits? NO!
So I'm reading the concert grosses in "Pollstar." What's interesting is not the first page, what sells out, but what does not.
Like Thirty Seconds to Mars. Which only had 38% sold at Merriweather Post Pavilion.
Now in truth, that's a shed, capacity is 15,000, but how many people want to sit way back on their ass and... A hit act will reach capacity. Thirty Seconds to Mars only sold 5,702 tickets. A gross of 400k, not bad, but the demand is just not there.
As a matter of fact, that was a trend at Merriweather Post. Acts that did not come close to selling out. Is demand for these acts diminished, do people just not want to go to this venue, or has concert mania declined?
Read the grosses and you sense something is off. People just won't go to see anything anymore.
And what gets someone out of the house to pay so much money to see an act?
I mean the prices are so high, you don't go on a lark. It's not a casual investment, you've got to care. And you care about the classic rock acts, some MTV acts, some new hit acts and then...
If you haven't had a hit lately, you're in trouble, like the Chainsmokers.
But comedy? Comedy is raging. Because it captures the zeitgeist, provides something music used to but rarely does anymore.
But what impressed me most was Slipknot. Which played the CFG Bank Arena in Baltimore, not far from Merriweather Post, albeit less of a schlepp. Slipknot went clean in Baltimore, 11,334 seats, for a gross of $893,327 (tickets were $33.50 to $143.50). AND THEY'VE NEVER EVER HAD A HIT!
It's not like Slipknot gets no ink. But the average American has no idea who the band is. Yet, eleven thousand people journeyed out of their homes, a big effort, to lay down their cash to see the band.
And it's not like the support acts were driving sales, they were those well-known bands Knocked Loose and Orbit Culture, HUH? No, people wanted to see Slipknot.
You're either a Slipknot fan or you're not. Either you buy into their ethos or you don't. And their ethos is one of the other. You're different from everybody else, you go to the show as a pilgrimage, to unite with thinking people... Yes, Slipknot thinks, it's easier to do a me-too rap song or appear on a TV singing show than create a whole new identity and culture. And that's what Slipknot has done.
The script has flipped. It's the late sixties all over again. A bifurcation. The bands with catalogs, with history, who have an identity, are the ones doing business. The ones with the hits? You live and die by the hit, and if you ain't got one on the chart right now, good luck selling tickets.
We had a consolidation in festivals. Are we going to see a consolidation, a reduction in the number of live gigs in general?
It's not cheap to go on the road. People have to buy tickets to make the economics work. And there might be a mania over Oasis, but for you?
And let's be clear, Slipknot tickets are relatively cheap. Which augurs for return engagements if you deliver.
Of course one big hit will bring out the scalpers... But they didn't scalp Grateful Dead tickets, people just asked for free ones, a miracle.
The news and the labels are enmeshed in an antique paradigm.
Was there demand for "Cowboy Carter"?
NOT AMONGST THE TRADITIONAL COUNTRY MARKET!
"Billboard" was afraid of racial backlash and considered "Texas Hold 'Em" to be country, and it topped their chart. If you consider Bob Dylan klezmer, he's going to top that chart with every release. As is his son Jakob and his son-in-law, Peter Himmelman.
You don't need a hit to survive.
You have to reorient your vision. View the internet as your friend. Don't complain about streaming payments, be thrilled people can readily discover you and become fans and give you money, year after year after year.
It's not only the show, but the merch... It's based on belief. There is little belief in a hit single. It's about the body of work. The attitude, the culture.
If you're just another me-too singer, you've got to be really damn good or lucky or both to break through. Homie don't play that no more.
An evolution is happening right in front of our faces. And despite all the hype about the Spotify Top 50 and stadium sellouts, the action is occurring at the bottom. The bottom is growing, coming up, and the top is getting ever thinner and the middle is no-man's land.
You've got to decide which side you're on.
Once again I point to Zach Bryan. He could sell out stadiums before he had a hit. The internet, the people spread the word. It wasn't radio action, it was not playlists, Bryan was selling authenticity, credibility in a sold out world.
This is the power of music. This is what you don't get from the social media influencers.
And being on the awards show is much more important than winning. Quick, name two winners from last year's CMAs... Almost no one can!
And fewer people are watching awards shows.
Which means you're on your own.
All the infrastructure of the past is on life support. Radio promotion. Retail price and placement. The new world is much more vague, there are no rules, so those with the microphone default to the old rules and the only people who are buying them are themselves and those who really don't care.
Meanwhile, tribute bands/shows are all over the chart. That sells tickets. And sure, there were hits, but Queen was much more than the hits, as were the Eagles and...
Interesting times.
--
Visit the archive: http://lefsetz.com/wordpress/
--
Listen to the podcast:
-iHeart: https://ihr.fm/2Gi5PFj
-Apple: https://apple.co/2ndmpvp
--
http://www.twitter.com/lefsetz
--
If you would like to subscribe to the LefsetzLetter,
http://www.lefsetz.com/lists/?p=subscribe&id=1
If you do not want to receive any more LefsetzLetters, http://lefsetz.com/lists/?p=unsubscribe&uid=0eecea7b60b461717065cbde887c8e25
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Can the public accept that "Cowboy Carter" and its single "Texas Hold 'Em" were not country hits? NO!
So I'm reading the concert grosses in "Pollstar." What's interesting is not the first page, what sells out, but what does not.
Like Thirty Seconds to Mars. Which only had 38% sold at Merriweather Post Pavilion.
Now in truth, that's a shed, capacity is 15,000, but how many people want to sit way back on their ass and... A hit act will reach capacity. Thirty Seconds to Mars only sold 5,702 tickets. A gross of 400k, not bad, but the demand is just not there.
As a matter of fact, that was a trend at Merriweather Post. Acts that did not come close to selling out. Is demand for these acts diminished, do people just not want to go to this venue, or has concert mania declined?
Read the grosses and you sense something is off. People just won't go to see anything anymore.
And what gets someone out of the house to pay so much money to see an act?
I mean the prices are so high, you don't go on a lark. It's not a casual investment, you've got to care. And you care about the classic rock acts, some MTV acts, some new hit acts and then...
If you haven't had a hit lately, you're in trouble, like the Chainsmokers.
But comedy? Comedy is raging. Because it captures the zeitgeist, provides something music used to but rarely does anymore.
But what impressed me most was Slipknot. Which played the CFG Bank Arena in Baltimore, not far from Merriweather Post, albeit less of a schlepp. Slipknot went clean in Baltimore, 11,334 seats, for a gross of $893,327 (tickets were $33.50 to $143.50). AND THEY'VE NEVER EVER HAD A HIT!
It's not like Slipknot gets no ink. But the average American has no idea who the band is. Yet, eleven thousand people journeyed out of their homes, a big effort, to lay down their cash to see the band.
And it's not like the support acts were driving sales, they were those well-known bands Knocked Loose and Orbit Culture, HUH? No, people wanted to see Slipknot.
You're either a Slipknot fan or you're not. Either you buy into their ethos or you don't. And their ethos is one of the other. You're different from everybody else, you go to the show as a pilgrimage, to unite with thinking people... Yes, Slipknot thinks, it's easier to do a me-too rap song or appear on a TV singing show than create a whole new identity and culture. And that's what Slipknot has done.
The script has flipped. It's the late sixties all over again. A bifurcation. The bands with catalogs, with history, who have an identity, are the ones doing business. The ones with the hits? You live and die by the hit, and if you ain't got one on the chart right now, good luck selling tickets.
We had a consolidation in festivals. Are we going to see a consolidation, a reduction in the number of live gigs in general?
It's not cheap to go on the road. People have to buy tickets to make the economics work. And there might be a mania over Oasis, but for you?
And let's be clear, Slipknot tickets are relatively cheap. Which augurs for return engagements if you deliver.
Of course one big hit will bring out the scalpers... But they didn't scalp Grateful Dead tickets, people just asked for free ones, a miracle.
The news and the labels are enmeshed in an antique paradigm.
Was there demand for "Cowboy Carter"?
NOT AMONGST THE TRADITIONAL COUNTRY MARKET!
"Billboard" was afraid of racial backlash and considered "Texas Hold 'Em" to be country, and it topped their chart. If you consider Bob Dylan klezmer, he's going to top that chart with every release. As is his son Jakob and his son-in-law, Peter Himmelman.
You don't need a hit to survive.
You have to reorient your vision. View the internet as your friend. Don't complain about streaming payments, be thrilled people can readily discover you and become fans and give you money, year after year after year.
It's not only the show, but the merch... It's based on belief. There is little belief in a hit single. It's about the body of work. The attitude, the culture.
If you're just another me-too singer, you've got to be really damn good or lucky or both to break through. Homie don't play that no more.
An evolution is happening right in front of our faces. And despite all the hype about the Spotify Top 50 and stadium sellouts, the action is occurring at the bottom. The bottom is growing, coming up, and the top is getting ever thinner and the middle is no-man's land.
You've got to decide which side you're on.
Once again I point to Zach Bryan. He could sell out stadiums before he had a hit. The internet, the people spread the word. It wasn't radio action, it was not playlists, Bryan was selling authenticity, credibility in a sold out world.
This is the power of music. This is what you don't get from the social media influencers.
And being on the awards show is much more important than winning. Quick, name two winners from last year's CMAs... Almost no one can!
And fewer people are watching awards shows.
Which means you're on your own.
All the infrastructure of the past is on life support. Radio promotion. Retail price and placement. The new world is much more vague, there are no rules, so those with the microphone default to the old rules and the only people who are buying them are themselves and those who really don't care.
Meanwhile, tribute bands/shows are all over the chart. That sells tickets. And sure, there were hits, but Queen was much more than the hits, as were the Eagles and...
Interesting times.
--
Visit the archive: http://lefsetz.com/wordpress/
--
Listen to the podcast:
-iHeart: https://ihr.fm/2Gi5PFj
-Apple: https://apple.co/2ndmpvp
--
http://www.twitter.com/lefsetz
--
If you would like to subscribe to the LefsetzLetter,
http://www.lefsetz.com/lists/?p=subscribe&id=1
If you do not want to receive any more LefsetzLetters, http://lefsetz.com/lists/?p=unsubscribe&uid=0eecea7b60b461717065cbde887c8e25
To change your email address http://lefsetz.com/lists/?p=preferences&uid=0eecea7b60b461717065cbde887c8e25
The Sopranos Documentary
Woke up this morning...
Actually, the first time I saw "The Sopranos" was in the morning, just before noon on a Saturday, with the curtains drawn, I heard the opening notes of that Alabama 3 song and...
I've watched "Breaking Bad," never made it through "The Wire," and there's nothing like "The Sopranos." I've never seen suburban life depicted so accurately, with the hippest rock soundtrack to boot. Remember the Kinks' "I'm Not Like Everybody Else" after Tony whips Janice into a frenzy? That's not the original, that's the remake from the double album "To The Bone," which you can't find on streaming services, it's another album lost to the sands of time, but the next morning I riffled through hundreds of CDs to find it, to hear it.
That was the power of "The Sopranos."
Or when Meadow said her parents should take away her gasoline credit card as punishment... They thought it was a big deal, but she had them snookered.
America is a suburban nation. Not a rural nation, not a city nation, but a suburban nation. Its consciousness is based on those who grew up in single family dwellings with a yard, who went to the local public or Catholic school, who played Little League and grilled hot dogs and hamburgers. This is our shared experience. And "The Sopranos" represented that. We may not have been gangsters, but we knew about living outside the metropolis, knowing that there were bigger people in the city, but to us our world was everything.
And America is about friends. Your "posse" in hip-hop language. Some people set the world on fire, ironically the bigger you are, the more people you know but the fewer friends you've got. You need sharp elbows to make it to the top. But it's this context amongst us that grounds us, keeps us together. Tony had his crew. You had...
This was 1999. Just when we all started to sing that Prince song in anticipation of the millennium. AOL was rampant, but broadband was not. If you wanted to know what was going on, if you wanted a date, you had to leave the house. It was the last hurrah for not only the century, but a certain way of life.
And then all hell broke loose.
It started in the music business. They talk about the dot com era, but that was really about fly by night companies looking to make a buck, but Napster was ground-breaking, nothing was the same thereafter. Not only in music, but the culture at large. Disruption became the word. Everything was up for grabs.
And now twenty five years later our nation is unrecognizable. We're wired, we're linked, but the system short circuits. We're no longer connected. But one thing is for sure, if you want to know which way the wind blows, you watch a TV show. A streaming TV show.
And probably not on HBO.
But HBO had been pushing the envelope with original series. Hipsters knew about "Larry Sanders," they were broken in by "Dream On." "Sex and the City" burgeoned after the breakthrough of "The Sopranos," when people hungered for more and found Carrie and her friends in "The Sopranos" time slot. But "Sex and the City" was a fantasy, "The Sopranos" was reality.
"The Sopranos" movie was a dud. And the documentary explains why, without saying a thing. It lacked the writers' room, that had tiredly batted around stories for years. And James Gandolfini.
The strange thing about this documentary is you can see the acting.
At this point, everybody considers themselves an actor. Become a big enough musical star and you'll get a role. But the pros have trained. They've got to get into the headspace. We see this again and again in the doc. How Gandolfini pushes and pushes himself. And if you're looking for gossip, you'll get a tidbit when David Chase says he wasn't surprised by Jim's death. We had no idea how far gone Gandolfini was. You had to be on the inside. Which is the same today, we think we know everything, oftentimes we know nothing.
David Chase. He's Italian. Originally it was "Chianese." And they show his life from then to now. Growing up in New Jersey with an insane mother. That's the theme of the documentary, mothers. That's the point of connection amongst everybody involved. Shrink 101. Everybody tells you to get over it, but Chase can't, most can't.
Hopefully you wake up one day and realize your mom's the problem. You've got to get yourself out from under. Which is what Chase does, he moves to the west coast, where he says the scum flows, or so he's heard. He moves to the Bay Area to go to graduate school at Stanford, and then goes south to Tinseltown.
But he can't leave his mother behind.
He has success in TV when really he wants to make movies, and he's got this project about his mother and mobsters and...
No one wants to buy it.
That's the difference between yesterday and today. If they don't like it, oftentimes you can do it yourself. And there are more outlets buying. But having said that, we're past Peak TV, and even Netflix is tightening the strings and going for broad-based rather than niche.
But the suits know nothing. They never did. Barry Diller may have come up with "The Movie of the Week," but the executives can never make the product. It used to be in the music business they were hands off, they knew they weren't musical, but it's always been this way in visual entertainment, everybody's an expert. But they've got no idea what really resonates with the public. Which is visceral. They're afraid of the public, they're second-guessing the public, but it takes an artistic visionary to get it right.
Like David Chase. He fought for his way. The nuances were important. They didn't want Tony to kill that rat when Meadow goes to look at college. As for the deaths... You knew nobody was forever, everybody was up for grabs. It's when they whacked Big Pussy that you realized this.
So I didn't expect this documentary to be great, I held off watching it for fear of disappointment. Another return to the graveyard.
But that's not what it is. Credit Alex Gibney, his documentaries are always a cut above.
But I'm watching the first episode and I'm reminded of what once was. And although I'm nostalgic, I'm not looking through rose-colored glasses. The show really was that good.
I'm not one to watch anything over. I like the element of surprise. After that, it's no longer new. There are no do-overs in life, why should there be in art? But when the scenes unfolded on the screen...
I was brought right back there.
But one of the most interesting things is the actors have aged. Michael Imperioli has gray hair. As does Lorraine Bracco. No one seems to have succumbed to the pressures of Hollywood, they have not gotten plastic surgery in a failed effort o appear young. It's only worked for Susan Sarandon, everybody else's visage is off, everybody knows, but no one admits it. You cannot turn back the hands of time. You can only go forward.
And you'll learn a lot about the making of the series. About making TV. People have no idea what a grind it is.
But mostly you will be returned to New Jersey. Your spiritual home.
Despite Bruce Springsteen and Jon Bongiovi, people outside the area have no idea how derided New Jersey is, still. Connecticut, New York, fine. New Jersey? Laughable. Second-rate.
What you've got here is the underdogs who got out from under to tell their truth, which turned out to be our truth.
I would hope we could return to the well, that we could have another show as good as "The Sopranos," but we never got another Beatles, never mind another "Godfather" I or "II."
Entertainment is America's foremost export. And if you're paying attention, you know that the internet and streaming services have undercut this in music. Now there is more regional talent. That spreads beyond borders. The days of U.S. and U.K. domination are done.
And they're making better TV series than ever around the world, the Danes and Israelis especially, but it's American visual entertainment that still dominates.
However it is faltering. "The Sopranos" killed movies. It was better than movies. If you wanted real life, grit, you turned on the flat screen, the theatre was for fantasy. As for the vaunted filmmakers of the day, neither Spielberg nor Scorsese have ever made anything as good as "The Sopranos." Spielberg makes spectacle. Scorsese has always had a problem with story. Image and moments, but story? That was in "The Sopranos." That's the nature of television, story is superior to image.
Woke up this morning, and I did not get a gun, but I just had to tell you. If you were a fan of "The Sopranos" this is a must-see. This is the college reunion you dream of attending. These are three-dimensional people you know so well, at least on screen. In real life they were different, you can see this.
And in the tsunami of product and hype we heard about this documentary for a week or two, and now crickets. That's the way it always is. The promotional complex does not know how to do it otherwise. But in truth, today most projects marinate in the public consciousness, are spread by word of mouth, taking ever longer to break through.
Just like "The Sopranos" itself. It was not an overnight hit. First and foremost, not everybody had HBO. It took the entire season for word to spread. And then...
It became America's story.
But it's not true. That's what you learn during the doc. It was just another TV show.
Only it's not.
--
Visit the archive: http://lefsetz.com/wordpress/
--
Listen to the podcast:
-iHeart: https://ihr.fm/2Gi5PFj
-Apple: https://apple.co/2ndmpvp
--
http://www.twitter.com/lefsetz
--
If you would like to subscribe to the LefsetzLetter,
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To change your email address http://lefsetz.com/lists/?p=preferences&uid=0eecea7b60b461717065cbde887c8e25
Actually, the first time I saw "The Sopranos" was in the morning, just before noon on a Saturday, with the curtains drawn, I heard the opening notes of that Alabama 3 song and...
I've watched "Breaking Bad," never made it through "The Wire," and there's nothing like "The Sopranos." I've never seen suburban life depicted so accurately, with the hippest rock soundtrack to boot. Remember the Kinks' "I'm Not Like Everybody Else" after Tony whips Janice into a frenzy? That's not the original, that's the remake from the double album "To The Bone," which you can't find on streaming services, it's another album lost to the sands of time, but the next morning I riffled through hundreds of CDs to find it, to hear it.
That was the power of "The Sopranos."
Or when Meadow said her parents should take away her gasoline credit card as punishment... They thought it was a big deal, but she had them snookered.
America is a suburban nation. Not a rural nation, not a city nation, but a suburban nation. Its consciousness is based on those who grew up in single family dwellings with a yard, who went to the local public or Catholic school, who played Little League and grilled hot dogs and hamburgers. This is our shared experience. And "The Sopranos" represented that. We may not have been gangsters, but we knew about living outside the metropolis, knowing that there were bigger people in the city, but to us our world was everything.
And America is about friends. Your "posse" in hip-hop language. Some people set the world on fire, ironically the bigger you are, the more people you know but the fewer friends you've got. You need sharp elbows to make it to the top. But it's this context amongst us that grounds us, keeps us together. Tony had his crew. You had...
This was 1999. Just when we all started to sing that Prince song in anticipation of the millennium. AOL was rampant, but broadband was not. If you wanted to know what was going on, if you wanted a date, you had to leave the house. It was the last hurrah for not only the century, but a certain way of life.
And then all hell broke loose.
It started in the music business. They talk about the dot com era, but that was really about fly by night companies looking to make a buck, but Napster was ground-breaking, nothing was the same thereafter. Not only in music, but the culture at large. Disruption became the word. Everything was up for grabs.
And now twenty five years later our nation is unrecognizable. We're wired, we're linked, but the system short circuits. We're no longer connected. But one thing is for sure, if you want to know which way the wind blows, you watch a TV show. A streaming TV show.
And probably not on HBO.
But HBO had been pushing the envelope with original series. Hipsters knew about "Larry Sanders," they were broken in by "Dream On." "Sex and the City" burgeoned after the breakthrough of "The Sopranos," when people hungered for more and found Carrie and her friends in "The Sopranos" time slot. But "Sex and the City" was a fantasy, "The Sopranos" was reality.
"The Sopranos" movie was a dud. And the documentary explains why, without saying a thing. It lacked the writers' room, that had tiredly batted around stories for years. And James Gandolfini.
The strange thing about this documentary is you can see the acting.
At this point, everybody considers themselves an actor. Become a big enough musical star and you'll get a role. But the pros have trained. They've got to get into the headspace. We see this again and again in the doc. How Gandolfini pushes and pushes himself. And if you're looking for gossip, you'll get a tidbit when David Chase says he wasn't surprised by Jim's death. We had no idea how far gone Gandolfini was. You had to be on the inside. Which is the same today, we think we know everything, oftentimes we know nothing.
David Chase. He's Italian. Originally it was "Chianese." And they show his life from then to now. Growing up in New Jersey with an insane mother. That's the theme of the documentary, mothers. That's the point of connection amongst everybody involved. Shrink 101. Everybody tells you to get over it, but Chase can't, most can't.
Hopefully you wake up one day and realize your mom's the problem. You've got to get yourself out from under. Which is what Chase does, he moves to the west coast, where he says the scum flows, or so he's heard. He moves to the Bay Area to go to graduate school at Stanford, and then goes south to Tinseltown.
But he can't leave his mother behind.
He has success in TV when really he wants to make movies, and he's got this project about his mother and mobsters and...
No one wants to buy it.
That's the difference between yesterday and today. If they don't like it, oftentimes you can do it yourself. And there are more outlets buying. But having said that, we're past Peak TV, and even Netflix is tightening the strings and going for broad-based rather than niche.
But the suits know nothing. They never did. Barry Diller may have come up with "The Movie of the Week," but the executives can never make the product. It used to be in the music business they were hands off, they knew they weren't musical, but it's always been this way in visual entertainment, everybody's an expert. But they've got no idea what really resonates with the public. Which is visceral. They're afraid of the public, they're second-guessing the public, but it takes an artistic visionary to get it right.
Like David Chase. He fought for his way. The nuances were important. They didn't want Tony to kill that rat when Meadow goes to look at college. As for the deaths... You knew nobody was forever, everybody was up for grabs. It's when they whacked Big Pussy that you realized this.
So I didn't expect this documentary to be great, I held off watching it for fear of disappointment. Another return to the graveyard.
But that's not what it is. Credit Alex Gibney, his documentaries are always a cut above.
But I'm watching the first episode and I'm reminded of what once was. And although I'm nostalgic, I'm not looking through rose-colored glasses. The show really was that good.
I'm not one to watch anything over. I like the element of surprise. After that, it's no longer new. There are no do-overs in life, why should there be in art? But when the scenes unfolded on the screen...
I was brought right back there.
But one of the most interesting things is the actors have aged. Michael Imperioli has gray hair. As does Lorraine Bracco. No one seems to have succumbed to the pressures of Hollywood, they have not gotten plastic surgery in a failed effort o appear young. It's only worked for Susan Sarandon, everybody else's visage is off, everybody knows, but no one admits it. You cannot turn back the hands of time. You can only go forward.
And you'll learn a lot about the making of the series. About making TV. People have no idea what a grind it is.
But mostly you will be returned to New Jersey. Your spiritual home.
Despite Bruce Springsteen and Jon Bongiovi, people outside the area have no idea how derided New Jersey is, still. Connecticut, New York, fine. New Jersey? Laughable. Second-rate.
What you've got here is the underdogs who got out from under to tell their truth, which turned out to be our truth.
I would hope we could return to the well, that we could have another show as good as "The Sopranos," but we never got another Beatles, never mind another "Godfather" I or "II."
Entertainment is America's foremost export. And if you're paying attention, you know that the internet and streaming services have undercut this in music. Now there is more regional talent. That spreads beyond borders. The days of U.S. and U.K. domination are done.
And they're making better TV series than ever around the world, the Danes and Israelis especially, but it's American visual entertainment that still dominates.
However it is faltering. "The Sopranos" killed movies. It was better than movies. If you wanted real life, grit, you turned on the flat screen, the theatre was for fantasy. As for the vaunted filmmakers of the day, neither Spielberg nor Scorsese have ever made anything as good as "The Sopranos." Spielberg makes spectacle. Scorsese has always had a problem with story. Image and moments, but story? That was in "The Sopranos." That's the nature of television, story is superior to image.
Woke up this morning, and I did not get a gun, but I just had to tell you. If you were a fan of "The Sopranos" this is a must-see. This is the college reunion you dream of attending. These are three-dimensional people you know so well, at least on screen. In real life they were different, you can see this.
And in the tsunami of product and hype we heard about this documentary for a week or two, and now crickets. That's the way it always is. The promotional complex does not know how to do it otherwise. But in truth, today most projects marinate in the public consciousness, are spread by word of mouth, taking ever longer to break through.
Just like "The Sopranos" itself. It was not an overnight hit. First and foremost, not everybody had HBO. It took the entire season for word to spread. And then...
It became America's story.
But it's not true. That's what you learn during the doc. It was just another TV show.
Only it's not.
--
Visit the archive: http://lefsetz.com/wordpress/
--
Listen to the podcast:
-iHeart: https://ihr.fm/2Gi5PFj
-Apple: https://apple.co/2ndmpvp
--
http://www.twitter.com/lefsetz
--
If you would like to subscribe to the LefsetzLetter,
http://www.lefsetz.com/lists/?p=subscribe&id=1
If you do not want to receive any more LefsetzLetters, http://lefsetz.com/lists/?p=unsubscribe&uid=0eecea7b60b461717065cbde887c8e25
To change your email address http://lefsetz.com/lists/?p=preferences&uid=0eecea7b60b461717065cbde887c8e25
Monday 9 September 2024
The Apple Presentation
Instant hearing aids.
That's the big breakthrough announced by Apple today.
But everybody wants to know about the new iPhones.
Bottom line, you don't need one...unless you do.
Smartphones are now like cars. They keep introducing new models, the advertising is overwhelming, but you're only in the market every few years (obviously longer for automobiles). So do you need a new phone?
What stunned me at the Niall Horan show last week at the O2 is I only saw one Android on the floor (and I don't mean on the floor, but in the GA section). We've been told that Apple dominates in the U.S., but not overseas. But unless you're in a struggling or third world market, Apple is not only the premium product, it's an issue of envy, or should I say ostracization. If you don't have an iPhone, you're an outsider. And if you're young, you need to be a member of the group. If you're old, you don't see why you need to spend extra for a device that you only talk and text on. And if you're a techie, you might prefer Android the same way you prefer Windows, for the ability to customize. But it's Apple's world and we just live in it.
So if your iPhone is old, on its last legs, if it doesn't pay to invest in a new battery, you're going to upgrade. Should you wait another year? They keep saying how the iPhone 17 is going to be a breakthrough, but for the first time in a long time, you're going to be missing out on features if you don't have the latest iPhones. Or an iPhone 15 Max.
Yes, always buy the ultimate iPhone. It's all about future-proofing. This is not where you should cut corners. ALWAYS lay down for the Pro model.
To make it very simple, if you have last year's Pro, you can use this year's AI features. Which you'll want to use.
AI has been overhyped. But most of the talk now is about the bleeding edge. I've got to give Apple credit for addressing everyday usage. The coolest feature is the ability to create emojis on the fly, and I never use emojis, but that's just the tip of the iceberg.
The digital era has ushered in the elimination of the manual. Sure, most people didn't read them. But if you chose to, everything was delineated in it. Whereas when it comes to the iPhone... You're on your own.
Oh, you can get a free one on one session with a new iPhone, but that just teaches you the basics. If you want to know how to use the new features, you've got to experiment yourself, or have friends.
That's the way most people will learn how to utilize these new features, via friends. You'll be at a party, or a lunch, and someone will do something you didn't know possible and you'll want to know how to do it yourself. And people love to teach others. Assuming they don't insult them about their ignorance in the first place. But if you're an expert on every feature of the iPhone, you probably work at Apple.
Do I expect heavy adoption of the new iPhones because of this Apple Intelligence/AI feature? No. But if you have one, or last year's Pro model, you're going to use this new feature, primarily to create writing...it's amazing what it can do, on a mobile device.
As for other features... There's a whole host of new camera stuff. Most especially a slider along the side that allows you to adjust so many things.
But, bottom line, very few people are going to sit at home and see these new features and pop for a new device unless their old one is on its last legs.
As for AirPods...
You've got to get the Pro model for the better audio and hearing aid capability. But everybody buys the Pro model anyway. Just like people overwhelming pop for the Pro iPhones.
Bottom line... An incredible proportion of the public needs hearing aids but don't know, or won't admit this and take action. Furthermore, the longer you wait, the harder it is to adjust.
And here the government is your friend. It made available over the counter hearing aids, usually sold for under a grand, sometimes way under. But they don't have the sophistication of the AirPods Pro. Because the AirPods Pro have a hearing test built in, and therefore the hearing curve is instantly adjusted on your AirPods. Once again, this will not be the big news you'll read about (hear about?), but this is a huge breakthrough. Hearing aids have been dominated by companies lacking in technological expertise overcharging for mediocre devices, this is a natural space for tech companies like Apple to dominate.
Like in watches.
You may own a Rolex, or even a Breitling, but the truth is those are jewelry items, an Apple Watch delivers functionality.
And sleep apnea detection. This is almost as big a deal as AirPods doing double duty as hearing aids. Most people who have sleep apnea don't know it, and then there are people who have it but won't treat it.
Detection has required a sleep study, in the old days only at a facility, however now there are programs you can use at home, but they might cost you, whereas this is built into the AirPods Pro.
This is a breakthrough year for the Watch, because the face is bigger and the entire Watch is thinner and lighter. More screen real estate, that's what everybody is asking for.
And the hidden star of the Apple presentation, yet hiding in plain sight, was San Francisco itself, the Bay Area. California and most especially the City by the Bay, have been excoriated. I could list the tropes, but if you watch this video you'll want to move there, at least go there.
Everybody is dressed down at the world's most valuable company, wearing trainers (U.K. English for Nikes, etc.) Even Tim Apple is wearing a polo shirt.
And usually, the presentation is based at Apple's HQ, but this time it's at different locations in the area and the camera flies from one to another, in a 2-D version of the Dead's opening at the Sphere, and the light and the...
Nate Silver had it right. The mentality of the east and west coasts is very different. The rules are gone on the west coast, there are few boundaries. If you're someone who likes to trade on their résumé, who your parents are, where you went to school, stay east, but if you dropped out, if you want to invent it as you go, come to the west.
Argue all you want, but the images in this presentation are very enticing.
So, do you have to watch this hour and a half video?
No. Apple presentations are not cutting edge like they used to be.
Oh, I forgot to mention Spatial Audio!
Despite Apple's continued push, it looks like Spatial Audio is another audio format that is going to die on the vine. Apple's all-in, you hear about them paying more for Spatial Audio mixes on Apple Music, it's only that...
Apple Music is not quite the Zune, but it's close.
Spotify owns streaming music. It's got the lion's share of subscribers who do more listening than they do on other services and furthermore, it's growing faster.
Apple came too late to streaming music. And unlike in the Jobs era, it didn't take the old technology and take a great leap forward, it's really no different from Spotify. And Spotify keeps introducing one new feature after another. As for audio quality... Spotify is going to go hi-res, but the truth is it's a canard, part of the pushback over digital audio, a passé argument if there ever was one. Hi-res and regular streaming are nearly indistinguishable, and you've got to have the right equipment to hear the higher quality. Yes, AirPods Pro will deliver it, but on your computer you need a separate DAC and...for almost all people regular audio is enough, otherwise people would have switched to Tidal way back when, and they did not. As for the CD, you can now get better audio streaming, higher resolutions, the CD is a dead medium, unless you're selling souvenirs or trying to enter or maintain your number one chart position.
As for AirPods Max... A failed product. Apple has had a few, remember that boombox equivalent, and the giant HomePod? Bottom line is AirPods Max are overpriced and ugly. Steve Jobs would have never let this product be shipped. If this rectangular shape were great, someone else would have pioneered and stuck with it, and this is not the case. Also, the AirPods Max are way overpriced. They've got to be under $500. I'd make them $399 max.
So, once again, you know if you need new products.
If you do, go for the best, it's barely more expensive.
It used to be that the regular iPhone, not the Max, used last year's chip. This year it's got a new chip, but the Pro models have one even better.
So get the new iPhone Pro, if you're in the market for one.
Watches are cheaper, maybe you want the latest design.
AirPods? You wait until you lose 'em or they die.
But the Apple Store will be ready when you are.
Unlike in the Jobs era, almost all the breakthroughs today are in software, however you do need a device to employ them. But really, instant hearing aids and a sleep apnea test...these are utterly AMAZING!
P.S. Oh, the Weeknd video... This and the double-tracking in the Notes app illustrate how easy it is now to create. And the end result is the flooding of the channel with "music." Everyone has the tools of creation in their pocket. Kids grow up learning/knowing this stuff. The Weeknd video looks cool, it makes people want to be involved in music, but let's be clear, the tune itself was secondary and it didn't sound innovative. We're ready for the audio extremes. Either totally digital, using AI, or non-digital, using acoustic instruments or electric ones with no added effects, just like punk was a reaction to prog and corporate rock.
--
Visit the archive: http://lefsetz.com/wordpress/
--
Listen to the podcast:
-iHeart: https://ihr.fm/2Gi5PFj
-Apple: https://apple.co/2ndmpvp
--
http://www.twitter.com/lefsetz
--
If you would like to subscribe to the LefsetzLetter,
http://www.lefsetz.com/lists/?p=subscribe&id=1
If you do not want to receive any more LefsetzLetters, http://lefsetz.com/lists/?p=unsubscribe&uid=0eecea7b60b461717065cbde887c8e25
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That's the big breakthrough announced by Apple today.
But everybody wants to know about the new iPhones.
Bottom line, you don't need one...unless you do.
Smartphones are now like cars. They keep introducing new models, the advertising is overwhelming, but you're only in the market every few years (obviously longer for automobiles). So do you need a new phone?
What stunned me at the Niall Horan show last week at the O2 is I only saw one Android on the floor (and I don't mean on the floor, but in the GA section). We've been told that Apple dominates in the U.S., but not overseas. But unless you're in a struggling or third world market, Apple is not only the premium product, it's an issue of envy, or should I say ostracization. If you don't have an iPhone, you're an outsider. And if you're young, you need to be a member of the group. If you're old, you don't see why you need to spend extra for a device that you only talk and text on. And if you're a techie, you might prefer Android the same way you prefer Windows, for the ability to customize. But it's Apple's world and we just live in it.
So if your iPhone is old, on its last legs, if it doesn't pay to invest in a new battery, you're going to upgrade. Should you wait another year? They keep saying how the iPhone 17 is going to be a breakthrough, but for the first time in a long time, you're going to be missing out on features if you don't have the latest iPhones. Or an iPhone 15 Max.
Yes, always buy the ultimate iPhone. It's all about future-proofing. This is not where you should cut corners. ALWAYS lay down for the Pro model.
To make it very simple, if you have last year's Pro, you can use this year's AI features. Which you'll want to use.
AI has been overhyped. But most of the talk now is about the bleeding edge. I've got to give Apple credit for addressing everyday usage. The coolest feature is the ability to create emojis on the fly, and I never use emojis, but that's just the tip of the iceberg.
The digital era has ushered in the elimination of the manual. Sure, most people didn't read them. But if you chose to, everything was delineated in it. Whereas when it comes to the iPhone... You're on your own.
Oh, you can get a free one on one session with a new iPhone, but that just teaches you the basics. If you want to know how to use the new features, you've got to experiment yourself, or have friends.
That's the way most people will learn how to utilize these new features, via friends. You'll be at a party, or a lunch, and someone will do something you didn't know possible and you'll want to know how to do it yourself. And people love to teach others. Assuming they don't insult them about their ignorance in the first place. But if you're an expert on every feature of the iPhone, you probably work at Apple.
Do I expect heavy adoption of the new iPhones because of this Apple Intelligence/AI feature? No. But if you have one, or last year's Pro model, you're going to use this new feature, primarily to create writing...it's amazing what it can do, on a mobile device.
As for other features... There's a whole host of new camera stuff. Most especially a slider along the side that allows you to adjust so many things.
But, bottom line, very few people are going to sit at home and see these new features and pop for a new device unless their old one is on its last legs.
As for AirPods...
You've got to get the Pro model for the better audio and hearing aid capability. But everybody buys the Pro model anyway. Just like people overwhelming pop for the Pro iPhones.
Bottom line... An incredible proportion of the public needs hearing aids but don't know, or won't admit this and take action. Furthermore, the longer you wait, the harder it is to adjust.
And here the government is your friend. It made available over the counter hearing aids, usually sold for under a grand, sometimes way under. But they don't have the sophistication of the AirPods Pro. Because the AirPods Pro have a hearing test built in, and therefore the hearing curve is instantly adjusted on your AirPods. Once again, this will not be the big news you'll read about (hear about?), but this is a huge breakthrough. Hearing aids have been dominated by companies lacking in technological expertise overcharging for mediocre devices, this is a natural space for tech companies like Apple to dominate.
Like in watches.
You may own a Rolex, or even a Breitling, but the truth is those are jewelry items, an Apple Watch delivers functionality.
And sleep apnea detection. This is almost as big a deal as AirPods doing double duty as hearing aids. Most people who have sleep apnea don't know it, and then there are people who have it but won't treat it.
Detection has required a sleep study, in the old days only at a facility, however now there are programs you can use at home, but they might cost you, whereas this is built into the AirPods Pro.
This is a breakthrough year for the Watch, because the face is bigger and the entire Watch is thinner and lighter. More screen real estate, that's what everybody is asking for.
And the hidden star of the Apple presentation, yet hiding in plain sight, was San Francisco itself, the Bay Area. California and most especially the City by the Bay, have been excoriated. I could list the tropes, but if you watch this video you'll want to move there, at least go there.
Everybody is dressed down at the world's most valuable company, wearing trainers (U.K. English for Nikes, etc.) Even Tim Apple is wearing a polo shirt.
And usually, the presentation is based at Apple's HQ, but this time it's at different locations in the area and the camera flies from one to another, in a 2-D version of the Dead's opening at the Sphere, and the light and the...
Nate Silver had it right. The mentality of the east and west coasts is very different. The rules are gone on the west coast, there are few boundaries. If you're someone who likes to trade on their résumé, who your parents are, where you went to school, stay east, but if you dropped out, if you want to invent it as you go, come to the west.
Argue all you want, but the images in this presentation are very enticing.
So, do you have to watch this hour and a half video?
No. Apple presentations are not cutting edge like they used to be.
Oh, I forgot to mention Spatial Audio!
Despite Apple's continued push, it looks like Spatial Audio is another audio format that is going to die on the vine. Apple's all-in, you hear about them paying more for Spatial Audio mixes on Apple Music, it's only that...
Apple Music is not quite the Zune, but it's close.
Spotify owns streaming music. It's got the lion's share of subscribers who do more listening than they do on other services and furthermore, it's growing faster.
Apple came too late to streaming music. And unlike in the Jobs era, it didn't take the old technology and take a great leap forward, it's really no different from Spotify. And Spotify keeps introducing one new feature after another. As for audio quality... Spotify is going to go hi-res, but the truth is it's a canard, part of the pushback over digital audio, a passé argument if there ever was one. Hi-res and regular streaming are nearly indistinguishable, and you've got to have the right equipment to hear the higher quality. Yes, AirPods Pro will deliver it, but on your computer you need a separate DAC and...for almost all people regular audio is enough, otherwise people would have switched to Tidal way back when, and they did not. As for the CD, you can now get better audio streaming, higher resolutions, the CD is a dead medium, unless you're selling souvenirs or trying to enter or maintain your number one chart position.
As for AirPods Max... A failed product. Apple has had a few, remember that boombox equivalent, and the giant HomePod? Bottom line is AirPods Max are overpriced and ugly. Steve Jobs would have never let this product be shipped. If this rectangular shape were great, someone else would have pioneered and stuck with it, and this is not the case. Also, the AirPods Max are way overpriced. They've got to be under $500. I'd make them $399 max.
So, once again, you know if you need new products.
If you do, go for the best, it's barely more expensive.
It used to be that the regular iPhone, not the Max, used last year's chip. This year it's got a new chip, but the Pro models have one even better.
So get the new iPhone Pro, if you're in the market for one.
Watches are cheaper, maybe you want the latest design.
AirPods? You wait until you lose 'em or they die.
But the Apple Store will be ready when you are.
Unlike in the Jobs era, almost all the breakthroughs today are in software, however you do need a device to employ them. But really, instant hearing aids and a sleep apnea test...these are utterly AMAZING!
P.S. Oh, the Weeknd video... This and the double-tracking in the Notes app illustrate how easy it is now to create. And the end result is the flooding of the channel with "music." Everyone has the tools of creation in their pocket. Kids grow up learning/knowing this stuff. The Weeknd video looks cool, it makes people want to be involved in music, but let's be clear, the tune itself was secondary and it didn't sound innovative. We're ready for the audio extremes. Either totally digital, using AI, or non-digital, using acoustic instruments or electric ones with no added effects, just like punk was a reaction to prog and corporate rock.
--
Visit the archive: http://lefsetz.com/wordpress/
--
Listen to the podcast:
-iHeart: https://ihr.fm/2Gi5PFj
-Apple: https://apple.co/2ndmpvp
--
http://www.twitter.com/lefsetz
--
If you would like to subscribe to the LefsetzLetter,
http://www.lefsetz.com/lists/?p=subscribe&id=1
If you do not want to receive any more LefsetzLetters, http://lefsetz.com/lists/?p=unsubscribe&uid=0eecea7b60b461717065cbde887c8e25
To change your email address http://lefsetz.com/lists/?p=preferences&uid=0eecea7b60b461717065cbde887c8e25
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