Now what?
Used to be the promoter went bankrupt, families argued with insurance companies for years and by the time settlements were made no one was paying attention. But that was back before Bob Sillerman started rolling up the regional promoters in 1996, ultimately resulting in two powerhouse promotion companies, AEG and Live Nation, the latter of which is a publicly traded company.
On the surface it appears it was an independent promoter, unknown to most, ScoreMoreShows. But dig a little deeper and you'll find that Live Nation purchased the company back in 2018: https://bit.ly/3BKmXx6 I.e. Astroworld was a Live Nation show.
So... There are insurance issues, and if policies don't cover the loss, Live Nation has deep enough pockets to do so itself. However, what will be the stain on the company, to what degree will its stock take a hit?
Well, if we look at Facebook, the stock dips for a brief period of time and then goes sky high once again, because it all comes down to the money, and if you make it people will invest with you, and other than the Covid shutdown period, Live Nation has been putting up great numbers.
But this was an accident waiting to happen. Somehow, somewhere, sometime in the past the music industry decided that festival seating was preferable. I don't care what promoters say, this is a way to squeeze in more attendees, despite their protestations that they're adhering to fire marshal limits. And now the acts are in on it too, never mind the attendees. If everybody is close, there is more energy. But EVERYBODY can't be close, but we've learned that almost everybody wants to be, which is why the expensive tickets always sell out first, it's the cheap seats in the back that are hard to sell. But at festivals, there's VIP and then the great unwashed masses. As for VIP...you've probably seen the video by now: https://bit.ly/3GWO0ZN There obviously wasn't enough security, but why?
Festivals are not a new thing, ScoreMoreShows has experience. Maybe they did a poor job with barriers outside the venue, allowing attendees to storm in. HOWEVER, the dirty little secret is promoters can't get enough people to work these shows. Even if they agree to, people don't show up. You've heard about the Great Resignation, you've heard about the inability of restaurants and other businesses to fill jobs, well it's the same in the concert industry too! But as we saw tonight, the risks are worse.
As for the public... In a country where the last president lied with impunity, where governors refuse to adhere to the law, where the unvaxxed don't want to comply with mandates, why in hell should the hoi polloi obey the law? Then again, watching this video I was reminded of 1/6. What we need to do is arrest a bunch of these gate crashers. They're easy to identify. Fine 'em, give 'em suspended sentences, no jail time, and community service. Believe me, word will get out. People won't be crashing the gates in the future. Everybody thinks they're immune, but there are cameras everywhere these days, if you want to commit crime make it white collar, otherwise you're gonna get caught.
Which brings us to the deaths. As of this writing it isn't confirmed it was a squish situation, but everybody seems to think it was.
Ever been squished? I have. It was in Boston, a free concert on the Common, with the Chambers Brothers, back in 1970, or maybe '69, one of the most frightening experiences of my life. Sure, I'd worked my way up from the back, but I was not fighting to be up close and personal, I was a good thirty or more feet from the stage. And then the push began. And then I was squeezed between two people, who were also squeezed, running out of breath, the end was in sight. But in a stolen moment, there was a slight loosening of the crowd and I worked my way sideways, and out of the fray. Then again, I was not that far from the right, I wasn't in the middle. So now...
I never fight to get up front, NEVER EVER! Because I know the crowd takes over and no one can save you, NO ONE! Once the mass starts to move, you're all on your own. And as much as those on stage say to back off, it never works. The crowd is now an independent mass, with its own life, or shall I say death.
So, what next for festivals?
Well, honestly, some of these festivals are oversold, just to get from one stage to another is running a daunting gauntlet. But...
Festival seating...that's why it's called that, it started at FESTIVALS! And it ain't the Woodstock Nation anymore, stoned hippies making way for their spiritual brothers, it's everybody for themselves these days and you've got to fight for not only your right to party, to but get even a little bit in life. So, telling people who are struggling each and every day to back off is an impossibility.
And then there's the elephant in the room, Astroworld was a hip-hop show. If it had been a country show, believe me, the mainstream press would be all over it, there'd be laws passed, but if it's people of color...just like in other walks of life, they're on their own.
Now if we look at George Floyd, a year and a half later, what we see is nothing has really changed, as I and too many with experience predicted. As a matter of fact, there's been a backlash! Most notably with Defund the Police, which is a right wing mantra employed to rile up its constituents, getting them to vote. Just tune in to Fox News, you'll see.
Furthermore, after Tuesday, consensus is the Democrats are too woke, and they need to move to the center, which means the marginalized have to go to the back of the bus, their needs have to be subjugated, like they always are.
But it gets even worse. On the right Black people are portrayed as takers, they've got an original sin that cannot be washed off.
Then again, hip-hop music is riddled with aggressiveness, gangs, bullets, mistreatment of women, but I don't think that had anything to do with what happened tonight, but believe me you'll read articles saying so.
So, this was a failure of security, plain and simple.
I read a tweet that when Drake took the stage as a surprise guest, the tweeter had been in line for merch for three hours. Getting people to man the merch tables is the hardest thing to do, at some gigs they reduce the number of merch stands because of this, because whoever shows up to work has to fill a more important position. But, if this tweet is true, and who knows, that would seem to indicate there weren't enough workers at this gig, so...
At sporting events there are seats. People don't start off all squeezed together, like they do at festivals. And with so many bad happenings in the past, there's a heavier police presence. Oh, did I tell you that it's hard to get off-duty police people as security these days? And look at the gate-crashing footage above, police on horses seemed to have no effect.
Now if it's an older demo show, you tend not to see this. Then again, older people don't like to stand, and many don't even like to go to festivals. So, it's the young 'uns who are driving the festival business. And they are passionate about the acts and...
For a while there, there was a clampdown on the acts themselves, telling them not to incite bad behavior, to not tell the crowd to come forward. But there hasn't been a disaster in the U.S. for years, so it's not top of mind.
Could there be better security?
Of course! There could be barriers. There could be more cops. But someone has to pay for this, cops are expensive, never mind installing the big plastic barriers. And, if you have barriers, you instantly undercut the vibe that everybody is in it together. Then again, maybe there should be different levels of festival "seats." Sure, everybody wants to be close, but when those tickets sell out you pay less to be behind.
As for VIP... They're off to the side, this is what they pay for, to be separate. And oftentimes there's a VIP viewing ground right in front of the stage, with a huge barrier protecting these people who pay for the privilege.
So, it was just a matter of when. The truth is festivals are incredibly profitable for promoters. They pay a flat fee for the acts and if they get enough people to come they can make tens of millions, not only on tickets but overpriced food, souvenirs... Then again, we've learned there can only be so many festivals, we're past peak festival. So, the ones that remain, do we need a code, defined security requirements for each and every one?
If promoters were smart, they'd get ahead of this. Form a consortium to enact rules that every promoter agrees to. Otherwise, there will be hearings in Congress, and you never want to get the politicians involved, they don't understand concert promotion, then again, concert promotion is opaque, just the way the promoters, everybody from the acts to the agents, like it. Ticketmaster is the enemy and everybody else skates. I could explain why Ticketmaster is not guilty, bottom line being that the acts are greedy, the fees are a way to keep some money out of commissionable income, but I could talk until I was blue in the face and most people wouldn't buy it. You don't want to believe the act is greedy, it's easier to blame the corporation.
So the bottom line is these people are dead. And they're never coming back. Their families are ruined, tragedies like this stick with parents until their own deaths. It's just too much to get over.
So, the goal of everybody involved will be to say it's an isolated event and move on, but I think the waters are choppier here. Then again, in today's fast-paced world how many people are gonna care about this next week? Even mass shootings only get a day or two of headlines, and then...
So, is the public willing to take the risk, to assume it? Printed on their tickets a release absolving the promoter of liability?
Well, the truth is people no longer care about the fine print, which they click through ad infinitum online every day. But if you put it in plain English, do you want to die at a concert? You won't find a single person who says yes. And that's the problem right there. We need a zero tolerance policy, and as we can see from tonight in Houston, we're far from one.
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Saturday 6 November 2021
Thursday 4 November 2021
Truck Driver Wins
"How a little-known New Jersey truck driver defeated a top state Senate power broker on less than $10,000": https://bit.ly/2ZTFFWi
The people want change. Don't you?
Maybe not if you're a billionaire. America works great if you're rich, if you're poor, not so much. Unless you're a baby boomer you don't even remember an era where there was a strong middle class, when both parents didn't have to work in order to pay the bills. Life is hard, and if you're on the wrong end of the stick you're sick and tired of hearing it's your own damn fault, that you haven't picked yourself up by your bootstraps, just aren't working hard enough. They tell you since you have a flat screen and a smartphone you should be happy, look at how much better you're doing than the poor of yore! But today too many are poor.
Let's not get into the details. Welfare. Political party. They're irrelevant. People on both sides of the fence are sick and tired, at least the Republicans have realized this. Yes, Trump is a symptom, not the driver. Most didn't think he'd be an incompetent nincompoop with authoritarian tendencies, they just wanted to put a stick in the spokes, they wanted change. Something offered with Bernie Sanders who was labeled too out there, a socialist, and then the senate president of New Jersey loses his job.
The focus has been on the penumbra. Religion, racism, important issues which pale in comparison to money, THERE JUST ISN'T ENOUGH OF IT!
And now the news is all about inflation. Unlike the fat cats in Congress, elected officials, most of America is on a fixed income, with no passive investments, and when prices go up, their lifestyle goes down. Hell, most people don't even have any money in the bank, never mind losing ground with the miniscule interest rates the institutions pay. What is end game?
Meanwhile, the lifestyles of the rich and famous are paraded in front of our eyes 24/7. Not only on television, but social media, do you think this doesn't cause resentment?
Furthermore, the internet delivers power. Running from the bottom and winning would have been an impossibility in the past. You needed money, and the ability to get the word out. Have a hot message and it spreads like wildfire online, FOR FREE! And one of the hot messages is people are sick and tired of the way things have been going in government.
The Republicans, the party of the fat cats, has had to realize its constituency has changed. That it's the blue collar people who are running it, truly. Trump literally said he loved his uneducated. Meanwhile, on the left, titans of government parade their Ivy League degrees, telling everybody they know better, when the truth is they've succeeded in a rigged system everybody else has been closed out of. As for clamping down on the rich, government can't even get rid of the carried interest rule. So, let me see... You're making MILLIONS at your everyday job but you're being taxed at capital gains rates, tell me how that's fair again?
Whenever the left has a renegade, someone testing the limits on the behalf of the financially disadvantaged, they're marginalized, told they're a kook and to get in the back of the bus because everything comes from the top and you have to earn your place. Meanwhile, on the right you can go from zero to hero overnight and you're embraced!
America no longer works for most of its citizens. Ponder that. Most of the people feel they've gotten a raw deal. But now they have power, as a result of the internet. Speaking of disinformation, the powers-that-be specialize in it while they get paid high salaries with great health insurance and accomplish nothing. It's not only the left, the right is culpable in Congress too, if they think this is working for them, their do-nothing posture, they're wrong.
The end of democracy? Maybe it already happened. As George Carlin said, you can vote, do it if it makes you feel good, but the owners of this country don't want to give up control. But now the owners want to be rock stars and we see them every day and we're pissed. I mean who is this pisher Mark Zuckerberg with all that money, what did he add to society, he's not Elon Musk or Jeff Bezos. It's kinda like Wall Street today, it's not about building things, but an end unto itself, finance. Which is why we saw the Game Stop phenomenon earlier in the year. People are so pissed about the way things are that they're willing to LOSE MONEY just to make a point, to show Wall Street it's not all powerful.
This is just the beginning. This is not an anomaly. Actually, the Democrats were early with AOC, but she and the Squad have been marginalized. I mean who in Congress on the left is representing the common man. Don't give me facts, it's all about feel. Tell me what we can do in public schools while you send your kids to private schools. The hypocrisy is damning.
Expect more of this.
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The people want change. Don't you?
Maybe not if you're a billionaire. America works great if you're rich, if you're poor, not so much. Unless you're a baby boomer you don't even remember an era where there was a strong middle class, when both parents didn't have to work in order to pay the bills. Life is hard, and if you're on the wrong end of the stick you're sick and tired of hearing it's your own damn fault, that you haven't picked yourself up by your bootstraps, just aren't working hard enough. They tell you since you have a flat screen and a smartphone you should be happy, look at how much better you're doing than the poor of yore! But today too many are poor.
Let's not get into the details. Welfare. Political party. They're irrelevant. People on both sides of the fence are sick and tired, at least the Republicans have realized this. Yes, Trump is a symptom, not the driver. Most didn't think he'd be an incompetent nincompoop with authoritarian tendencies, they just wanted to put a stick in the spokes, they wanted change. Something offered with Bernie Sanders who was labeled too out there, a socialist, and then the senate president of New Jersey loses his job.
The focus has been on the penumbra. Religion, racism, important issues which pale in comparison to money, THERE JUST ISN'T ENOUGH OF IT!
And now the news is all about inflation. Unlike the fat cats in Congress, elected officials, most of America is on a fixed income, with no passive investments, and when prices go up, their lifestyle goes down. Hell, most people don't even have any money in the bank, never mind losing ground with the miniscule interest rates the institutions pay. What is end game?
Meanwhile, the lifestyles of the rich and famous are paraded in front of our eyes 24/7. Not only on television, but social media, do you think this doesn't cause resentment?
Furthermore, the internet delivers power. Running from the bottom and winning would have been an impossibility in the past. You needed money, and the ability to get the word out. Have a hot message and it spreads like wildfire online, FOR FREE! And one of the hot messages is people are sick and tired of the way things have been going in government.
The Republicans, the party of the fat cats, has had to realize its constituency has changed. That it's the blue collar people who are running it, truly. Trump literally said he loved his uneducated. Meanwhile, on the left, titans of government parade their Ivy League degrees, telling everybody they know better, when the truth is they've succeeded in a rigged system everybody else has been closed out of. As for clamping down on the rich, government can't even get rid of the carried interest rule. So, let me see... You're making MILLIONS at your everyday job but you're being taxed at capital gains rates, tell me how that's fair again?
Whenever the left has a renegade, someone testing the limits on the behalf of the financially disadvantaged, they're marginalized, told they're a kook and to get in the back of the bus because everything comes from the top and you have to earn your place. Meanwhile, on the right you can go from zero to hero overnight and you're embraced!
America no longer works for most of its citizens. Ponder that. Most of the people feel they've gotten a raw deal. But now they have power, as a result of the internet. Speaking of disinformation, the powers-that-be specialize in it while they get paid high salaries with great health insurance and accomplish nothing. It's not only the left, the right is culpable in Congress too, if they think this is working for them, their do-nothing posture, they're wrong.
The end of democracy? Maybe it already happened. As George Carlin said, you can vote, do it if it makes you feel good, but the owners of this country don't want to give up control. But now the owners want to be rock stars and we see them every day and we're pissed. I mean who is this pisher Mark Zuckerberg with all that money, what did he add to society, he's not Elon Musk or Jeff Bezos. It's kinda like Wall Street today, it's not about building things, but an end unto itself, finance. Which is why we saw the Game Stop phenomenon earlier in the year. People are so pissed about the way things are that they're willing to LOSE MONEY just to make a point, to show Wall Street it's not all powerful.
This is just the beginning. This is not an anomaly. Actually, the Democrats were early with AOC, but she and the Squad have been marginalized. I mean who in Congress on the left is representing the common man. Don't give me facts, it's all about feel. Tell me what we can do in public schools while you send your kids to private schools. The hypocrisy is damning.
Expect more of this.
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Chris Kimsey-This Week's Podcast
You're gonna love this. Chris Kimsey, producer and engineer for the Rolling Stones, Peter Frampton, Duran Duran and more, not only opines on those records, he also goes deep into equipment, technique and Dolby Atmos. If you have any interest in the studio, this is right up your alley. And even if not, you'll dig the stories. Amazing!
https://www.iheart.com/podcast/1119-the-bob-lefsetz-podcast-30806836/
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/chris-kimsey/id1316200737?i=1000540733531
https://open.spotify.com/episode/2jOzwIS1L23RWs0GKLZc8H?si=CLPPMpl0TRG6NsvSp9Mgkw
https://music.amazon.com/podcasts/9ff4fb19-54d4-41ae-ae7a-8a6f8d3dafa8/the-bob-lefsetz-podcast?
https://www.stitcher.com/show/the-bob-lefsetz-podcast
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https://www.iheart.com/podcast/1119-the-bob-lefsetz-podcast-30806836/
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/chris-kimsey/id1316200737?i=1000540733531
https://open.spotify.com/episode/2jOzwIS1L23RWs0GKLZc8H?si=CLPPMpl0TRG6NsvSp9Mgkw
https://music.amazon.com/podcasts/9ff4fb19-54d4-41ae-ae7a-8a6f8d3dafa8/the-bob-lefsetz-podcast?
https://www.stitcher.com/show/the-bob-lefsetz-podcast
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Wednesday 3 November 2021
Love Life-Season 2
You won't watch this.
That's the hardest thing to do these days, to get someone to experience your art, your production, your work. They just don't have the time, their most precious asset. You think it's a minor inconvenience, but it's not. It's a privilege. You must beg for attention. You might have to even give a reward, promise something in return. They keep making more art, they aren't making more time.
And you've got to make it easy. NEVER EVER SEND A CD, NEVER EVER! You feel good about yourself having sent something, but it's nothing but a pain in the ass for the recipient. They've got to pick it up, god forbid you sent it signature required, they've got to open the package and then...THEY DON'T HAVE SOMEWHERE TO PLAY IT! And even if they do, it's so much work. They've got to break the shrinkwrap, insert the disc, wait for it to fire up. Whereas a link you can click on instantly, which probably the recipient won't do either, but it saves everybody a lot of time and effort. ALSO, never ever send an MP3, NEVER EVER! It labels you a Luddite. That's so aughts. Just send a link. And also know that unsolicited material barely breaks through, especially in the days of unsolicited overload.
And hype doesn't work either. The main audience is immune. And the younger audience is not paying attention to the outlets whatsoever. Like broadcast television or newspapers. It may feel good to see your name/album in the newspaper, but other than being able to send it to your mother, there is no benefit. Nada. Then again, you do keep your publicist in business.
No, now it's organic. And it happens slowly. The faster it happens, the faster it fades. Word of mouth is the driver today. And no one has ever figured out how to start it and keep it going, it can't be faked. But it's a feeling, a knowledge your group has that maybe no one else has yet. Start small if you're a nobody. You're trying to build a fire. Not a bonfire, not a conflagration, but a small flame to cook dinner at your campsite. You need to tend the fire, keep it going, and if you're a great fire builder and if you get lucky, the flame will spread.
And it's got to be easy, it's got to be where people can partake of it. You want to be on every streaming platform, EVERY ONE! From Spotify to YouTube. Forget payment, you're on the wrong path, you want NOTICE!
So "Love Life" is on HBO MAX, I loved the first season, I wrote about it: https://bit.ly/3q4LASM Everybody who loved "Sex and the City" would dig it, this is what they are looking for, not one of the lame movies or the redo without Samantha. And "Love Life" rings more true. Although the second season occasionally devolves into "Sex and the City" hokiness.
So it's a different cast, a different story this year. It's about Marcus, who is Black.
Yes, the producers were influenced by the woke. But it's great to get a peek into the world of middle class Blacks. Not up from the bottom rappers, but educated workers. I can't even write about this without risking backlash, but the truth is most white people aren't aware of the middle class Black experience. They know some Black people, but not their parents, the people they grew up with, their neighborhood. Despite protestation from the woke, the truth is so many whites are still afraid of Black people, never mind Black neighborhoods, but "Love Life" gives great insight, which we need.
So Marcus works in publishing. He's Black, but he's married to a white woman, Emily. But at a wedding, he meets Mia.
"Love Life" nails universal truths in a world of cartoon superheroes and villains. You're just going through life naturally, and then BANG!, you meet someone new who titillates you the way your significant other does not.
And what is cheating? Is texting cheating?
And what do you tell your significant other?
And you think you're on the same page as the new person you've met, and then you find out you're not and...
You're single.
One of the worst spots in life. You were together, you weren't thinking about your time, you were complaining about your partner and then..,.you've got unlimited time, you don't know what to do with yourself, you have to rebuild your social life, the friends you abandoned or drifted away from...and it's so hard.
And new people... You forgot how many hoops you jumped through to get this close to your significant other, over YEARS! It's amazing people can get along at all!
And it's going to be hard to build momentum on the second season of "Love Life," because they're dribbling out episodes week by week, a failed strategy. You want all episodes available so you can build BUZZ! It's about buzz, not keeping people paying month by month. The buzz will keep them subscribed. And look at the second season of "Ted Lasso," by time it was done no one was talking about it, they were bingeing "Squid Game." You could jump in, watch all the episodes and instantly participate in the conversation. There are no water coolers around which shows can build through office talk, hell, a ton of us never even go into an office at all. If you've succeeded in gaining our attention, DON'T LET GO!
But this will fall on deaf ears. Netflix knows its audience, seemingly no one else does. HBO is caught up in their old paradigm, which is why so few subscribe to HBO Max independently, those who do not have a cable subscription. And the oldsters watching week by week on cable...are not addicted to the app, so the app doesn't grow.
Used to be if something was great it would surface, everybody would end up knowing. That is no longer true. You can do something great and most of the public can be oblivious to it. You certainly don't want to put up barriers to your work.
So, there's no buzz on "Love Life." There's no buzz on HBO Max. No one you know is watching it, it's not part of anybody's conversation. So what are the odds it will gain traction? NIL!
But you should check it out.
Should you subscribe to HBO Max just for "Love Life"? No. It's a bad value proposition, I can tell you about many even better shows on Netflix and Amazon which you're already paying for.
But if you're interested in relationships, "Love Life" is one of the best places to go to feed your addiction. And life is all about relationships, they're much more important than work. So, if you watch "Love Life" let me know, but I doubt I'll get much incoming.
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That's the hardest thing to do these days, to get someone to experience your art, your production, your work. They just don't have the time, their most precious asset. You think it's a minor inconvenience, but it's not. It's a privilege. You must beg for attention. You might have to even give a reward, promise something in return. They keep making more art, they aren't making more time.
And you've got to make it easy. NEVER EVER SEND A CD, NEVER EVER! You feel good about yourself having sent something, but it's nothing but a pain in the ass for the recipient. They've got to pick it up, god forbid you sent it signature required, they've got to open the package and then...THEY DON'T HAVE SOMEWHERE TO PLAY IT! And even if they do, it's so much work. They've got to break the shrinkwrap, insert the disc, wait for it to fire up. Whereas a link you can click on instantly, which probably the recipient won't do either, but it saves everybody a lot of time and effort. ALSO, never ever send an MP3, NEVER EVER! It labels you a Luddite. That's so aughts. Just send a link. And also know that unsolicited material barely breaks through, especially in the days of unsolicited overload.
And hype doesn't work either. The main audience is immune. And the younger audience is not paying attention to the outlets whatsoever. Like broadcast television or newspapers. It may feel good to see your name/album in the newspaper, but other than being able to send it to your mother, there is no benefit. Nada. Then again, you do keep your publicist in business.
No, now it's organic. And it happens slowly. The faster it happens, the faster it fades. Word of mouth is the driver today. And no one has ever figured out how to start it and keep it going, it can't be faked. But it's a feeling, a knowledge your group has that maybe no one else has yet. Start small if you're a nobody. You're trying to build a fire. Not a bonfire, not a conflagration, but a small flame to cook dinner at your campsite. You need to tend the fire, keep it going, and if you're a great fire builder and if you get lucky, the flame will spread.
And it's got to be easy, it's got to be where people can partake of it. You want to be on every streaming platform, EVERY ONE! From Spotify to YouTube. Forget payment, you're on the wrong path, you want NOTICE!
So "Love Life" is on HBO MAX, I loved the first season, I wrote about it: https://bit.ly/3q4LASM Everybody who loved "Sex and the City" would dig it, this is what they are looking for, not one of the lame movies or the redo without Samantha. And "Love Life" rings more true. Although the second season occasionally devolves into "Sex and the City" hokiness.
So it's a different cast, a different story this year. It's about Marcus, who is Black.
Yes, the producers were influenced by the woke. But it's great to get a peek into the world of middle class Blacks. Not up from the bottom rappers, but educated workers. I can't even write about this without risking backlash, but the truth is most white people aren't aware of the middle class Black experience. They know some Black people, but not their parents, the people they grew up with, their neighborhood. Despite protestation from the woke, the truth is so many whites are still afraid of Black people, never mind Black neighborhoods, but "Love Life" gives great insight, which we need.
So Marcus works in publishing. He's Black, but he's married to a white woman, Emily. But at a wedding, he meets Mia.
"Love Life" nails universal truths in a world of cartoon superheroes and villains. You're just going through life naturally, and then BANG!, you meet someone new who titillates you the way your significant other does not.
And what is cheating? Is texting cheating?
And what do you tell your significant other?
And you think you're on the same page as the new person you've met, and then you find out you're not and...
You're single.
One of the worst spots in life. You were together, you weren't thinking about your time, you were complaining about your partner and then..,.you've got unlimited time, you don't know what to do with yourself, you have to rebuild your social life, the friends you abandoned or drifted away from...and it's so hard.
And new people... You forgot how many hoops you jumped through to get this close to your significant other, over YEARS! It's amazing people can get along at all!
And it's going to be hard to build momentum on the second season of "Love Life," because they're dribbling out episodes week by week, a failed strategy. You want all episodes available so you can build BUZZ! It's about buzz, not keeping people paying month by month. The buzz will keep them subscribed. And look at the second season of "Ted Lasso," by time it was done no one was talking about it, they were bingeing "Squid Game." You could jump in, watch all the episodes and instantly participate in the conversation. There are no water coolers around which shows can build through office talk, hell, a ton of us never even go into an office at all. If you've succeeded in gaining our attention, DON'T LET GO!
But this will fall on deaf ears. Netflix knows its audience, seemingly no one else does. HBO is caught up in their old paradigm, which is why so few subscribe to HBO Max independently, those who do not have a cable subscription. And the oldsters watching week by week on cable...are not addicted to the app, so the app doesn't grow.
Used to be if something was great it would surface, everybody would end up knowing. That is no longer true. You can do something great and most of the public can be oblivious to it. You certainly don't want to put up barriers to your work.
So, there's no buzz on "Love Life." There's no buzz on HBO Max. No one you know is watching it, it's not part of anybody's conversation. So what are the odds it will gain traction? NIL!
But you should check it out.
Should you subscribe to HBO Max just for "Love Life"? No. It's a bad value proposition, I can tell you about many even better shows on Netflix and Amazon which you're already paying for.
But if you're interested in relationships, "Love Life" is one of the best places to go to feed your addiction. And life is all about relationships, they're much more important than work. So, if you watch "Love Life" let me know, but I doubt I'll get much incoming.
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Republicans
They're the North Vietnamese.
Maybe you're too young to know. But the North Vietnamese were demonized, the domino theory said they must be defended against, otherwise Communism would march down the country and spread even further and... AND WHAT? the younger generation began to ask. They were shipped halfway across the world WHY? Once they thought about it, it didn't make sense to them. Meanwhile, when America pulled its troops the North ran over the South nearly as fast as the Taliban recaptured Afghanistan. You see the South, just like the lauded Afghani troops, just didn't care that much, they were supported by those American dollars, and once they were gone, so was their will to fight with all their heart and might, and the North Vietnamese took over.
Now it turned out the domino theory was false, and today Vietnam is seen as a tourist spot. Then again, wages are not that high, that's where they make Nikes and other products, but China gets all the attention.
So, Republicans want an America that no longer exists, and they're doing their best to make sure they get it. And if they can't, which they can't, progress moves forward, they're going to do their best to put the brakes on change. Democrats? They just don't care that much and they're in disarray to boot.
That's right, the Republicans are united. Together. They all hew to the same line, march to the same beat. Look at how they've all lined up behind Trump. They know it's about defeating the enemy, the Democrats, they put their individual needs to the side in pursuit of mass victory. And they seem to be damn good at it.
So on the left there is complaint of misinformation, disinformation. But first and foremost, the right is not privy to this analysis. Like in North Vietnam, the message is controlled, in today's internet world it cannot penetrate. So facts are irrelevant, it's team ball, 24/7, and it turns out the right needs victory more than the left, it never gives up, it stays on message, it never sleeps. Meanwhile, the left shrugs.
Let's see, the left... The supposed "big tent." Well, the left counts on minorities to get them elected, but then ignores them. It doesn't deliver what is promised. And then these same minorities stop showing up. They're doing the heavy lifting, like the Blacks in Georgia, and then when victory is secured they barely get lip-service. And you wonder why minorities stop voting. Hell, if it weren't for Trump, do you think everybody would have been so fired up about going to the polls last year?
Yes, on seemingly every metric, the Democrats are the majority. Even their principles are the majority. Again and again this is revealed, the people want gun control, health care, so many programs. But the Republicans don't give them to them. The philosophy is different, you're on your own, it's your responsibility. I mean who wants to pay for the takers anyway? And all of the right in D.C. is afraid to cross Grover Norquist, taxes are anathema, even the collection of taxes is anathema, the IRS has been hobbled to the point where you can cheat and get away with it, your odds of being audited are incredibly low, and just about the same as those of a poor person. Furthermore, believing in an old America that does not exist, i.e. the American Dream, every poor person on the right doesn't want higher taxes, because they plan to be rich, this is the hope that's keeping them alive.
Yes, the switch has flipped. Now a lot of the rich are Democrats and the poor blue collar workers are Republicans. Because the Democrats stopped looking out for them. And if they're ever coming back, it'll be years, they're now embedded on the right.
And every time the Democrats have a victory based on change, they move to the center, alienating those with hope. So why should those on the left continue to show up and vote, why should they care.
The right's way of life is threatened 24/7, that's what they believe. Meanwhile, everybody on the left accepts reality and goes to sleep.
Now don't tell me about the activists on the left. They get shot by the party powers. Like AOC. Irrelevant of whether you believe in her positions, name one other elected official on the left who is speaking to the youth, NAME ONE! It's the right that has young players, with an endless farm team.
And if you look the wrong way, you're excoriated and after being pilloried you're removed on the left, like Al Franken. Meanwhile, Matt Gaetz is still in office. As is Marjorie Taylor Greene. Greene's main complaint against Liz Cheney...SHE'S DISLOYAL! Where's the loyalty on the left, let's ask Joe Manchin and Kyrstren Sinema. Cheney is loyal to democracy, at the risk of her elected position. Manchin and Sinema are loyal to their donors, their pocketbook, and care not a whit about the team, so the team loses.
As for the woke... It seems Democrats care more about trans people than they do poor people, and people of color. Only the Democrats could come up with a moniker that its members reject, i.e. Latinx. The left is so busy hewing to an inane line that they've lost touch with the mainstream public. You can want national health care, support a ton of Bernie Sanders's policies, yet still be angry about trigger warnings and the rest of the ridiculousness emanating from college campuses. Rationality has left the building. But the point here is not reality, but MESSAGING! The left gets labeled and then accepts the label. The right is fighting a war, the left is fighting amongst itself.
I'm not going to even bother to delve deeply into the issues, the point here is the battle. The right is truly convinced that the left is coming for its way of life. The left? Well, they look around and think things are pretty good, and when an issue arrives... NOW they're concerned about the makeup of the Supreme Court, where were they when Hillary Clinton was the last line of defense here?
The Democrats only show up when it's too late. They can't seem to be energized before that. And who are you going to believe anyway. The right is all about true believers. The left is all about compromise with mealy-mouthed candidates who no one can believe in but the fat cats that support them.
And the right is playing the long game. The Federalist Society. The focus on control of state governments. You don't win on the first day, you can't just show up every two or four years for elections. And what is going to make you show up anyway?
As for social tropes... That's what people care about, that's what energizes them. Trans people in their bathrooms. Bad books in schools. Progress always wins, IN TIME! After all, gay people can get married and marijuana is legal in so many states, but... That's not the game, the real game is ginning up some issue to make sure people get energized and vote Republican, next time there's just another issue.
Meanwhile, those on the left who do care have no idea what is truly going on with the right. They've excised both their Republican friends and Republican media. They look around and think everything is okay. Everybody they know is on the same page. Or the trouble is in red states, or other places that don't affect them. But authoritarianism never sleeps, just like rust.
Yes, the right wants someone to make it right, to keep the trains running on time, if not the post office. Then again, they want the trains gone too, at least government support for them. But they're willing to sacrifice so much, even their vaunted freedom, so immigrants don't cross the border and darkies don't move into their neighborhood and take power. If it takes a strongman to achieve this, so be it.
Does democracy hang in the balance?
It does. But try convincing the rank and file voter, who can't make ends meet. They're looking at today, maybe tomorrow, but the long view is out of their purview, beyond their vision, their goal is just to live that long, to be housed and fed, never mind shot along the way in unsafe neighborhoods that the right keep crowing about and the left can't seem to improve.
So even if you're motivated, it's hard to believe in the left. We want vision, a march forward, not more of the same. Terry McAuliffe was a flawed candidate. Then again, the left specializes in this, running compromise candidates who no one can believe in. Forget the agenda, can I at least believe in those who are running? Nothing seems to get done in D.C. anyway. How is it the flaw in moving forward is the rogue Manchin and Sinema when the real enemy is the block on the right who won't participate in government, who refuse to even investigate 1/6? Talk about messaging, talk about controlling the dialogue.
So this is the way it is folks. The Republicans need it more and will do anything and everything to get what they want. They're even challenging the underlying game. Meanwhile, those on the left believe in an era of government from half a century ago, which is long gone.
There's no way Biden wins in 2024. And if he doesn't run, and he probably won't, there's no way in hell Kamala Harris can win. I can't think of a single person to nominate. Trump is on his way to victory. Whether he keeps his hand on the scale or not. It's hiding in plain sight but those on the left refuse to see it, refuse to believe it can happen, deny the deleterious effects like Jews in Germany.
When do you freak out? The Democrats are like lobsters in a pot. Not even complaining their space is restricted, that they've been caught and are no longer in the ocean, and oblivious as the temperature goes up and they're slowly cooked. Once upon a time they were raw, but self-interest and disinterest allowed them to cede ground slowly and then...
This is how you lose a democracy, slowly, and then all at once.
But I'm not trying to scare you. It's the unreachable I'm trying to scare. They're just too somnambulant, down their pleasure pathways on the internet, to be paying attention, to truly get it. Wouldn't you like to have an enemy like this? The Republicans are hoovering up adherents while the left is in total disarray, no legendary leaders, not even a coherent agenda, not even the ability to enact change.
North Vietnam won.
As did the Taliban.
Because they wanted it that much. They needed it that much. It was all they thought about 24/7.
Just like the Republicans.
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Maybe you're too young to know. But the North Vietnamese were demonized, the domino theory said they must be defended against, otherwise Communism would march down the country and spread even further and... AND WHAT? the younger generation began to ask. They were shipped halfway across the world WHY? Once they thought about it, it didn't make sense to them. Meanwhile, when America pulled its troops the North ran over the South nearly as fast as the Taliban recaptured Afghanistan. You see the South, just like the lauded Afghani troops, just didn't care that much, they were supported by those American dollars, and once they were gone, so was their will to fight with all their heart and might, and the North Vietnamese took over.
Now it turned out the domino theory was false, and today Vietnam is seen as a tourist spot. Then again, wages are not that high, that's where they make Nikes and other products, but China gets all the attention.
So, Republicans want an America that no longer exists, and they're doing their best to make sure they get it. And if they can't, which they can't, progress moves forward, they're going to do their best to put the brakes on change. Democrats? They just don't care that much and they're in disarray to boot.
That's right, the Republicans are united. Together. They all hew to the same line, march to the same beat. Look at how they've all lined up behind Trump. They know it's about defeating the enemy, the Democrats, they put their individual needs to the side in pursuit of mass victory. And they seem to be damn good at it.
So on the left there is complaint of misinformation, disinformation. But first and foremost, the right is not privy to this analysis. Like in North Vietnam, the message is controlled, in today's internet world it cannot penetrate. So facts are irrelevant, it's team ball, 24/7, and it turns out the right needs victory more than the left, it never gives up, it stays on message, it never sleeps. Meanwhile, the left shrugs.
Let's see, the left... The supposed "big tent." Well, the left counts on minorities to get them elected, but then ignores them. It doesn't deliver what is promised. And then these same minorities stop showing up. They're doing the heavy lifting, like the Blacks in Georgia, and then when victory is secured they barely get lip-service. And you wonder why minorities stop voting. Hell, if it weren't for Trump, do you think everybody would have been so fired up about going to the polls last year?
Yes, on seemingly every metric, the Democrats are the majority. Even their principles are the majority. Again and again this is revealed, the people want gun control, health care, so many programs. But the Republicans don't give them to them. The philosophy is different, you're on your own, it's your responsibility. I mean who wants to pay for the takers anyway? And all of the right in D.C. is afraid to cross Grover Norquist, taxes are anathema, even the collection of taxes is anathema, the IRS has been hobbled to the point where you can cheat and get away with it, your odds of being audited are incredibly low, and just about the same as those of a poor person. Furthermore, believing in an old America that does not exist, i.e. the American Dream, every poor person on the right doesn't want higher taxes, because they plan to be rich, this is the hope that's keeping them alive.
Yes, the switch has flipped. Now a lot of the rich are Democrats and the poor blue collar workers are Republicans. Because the Democrats stopped looking out for them. And if they're ever coming back, it'll be years, they're now embedded on the right.
And every time the Democrats have a victory based on change, they move to the center, alienating those with hope. So why should those on the left continue to show up and vote, why should they care.
The right's way of life is threatened 24/7, that's what they believe. Meanwhile, everybody on the left accepts reality and goes to sleep.
Now don't tell me about the activists on the left. They get shot by the party powers. Like AOC. Irrelevant of whether you believe in her positions, name one other elected official on the left who is speaking to the youth, NAME ONE! It's the right that has young players, with an endless farm team.
And if you look the wrong way, you're excoriated and after being pilloried you're removed on the left, like Al Franken. Meanwhile, Matt Gaetz is still in office. As is Marjorie Taylor Greene. Greene's main complaint against Liz Cheney...SHE'S DISLOYAL! Where's the loyalty on the left, let's ask Joe Manchin and Kyrstren Sinema. Cheney is loyal to democracy, at the risk of her elected position. Manchin and Sinema are loyal to their donors, their pocketbook, and care not a whit about the team, so the team loses.
As for the woke... It seems Democrats care more about trans people than they do poor people, and people of color. Only the Democrats could come up with a moniker that its members reject, i.e. Latinx. The left is so busy hewing to an inane line that they've lost touch with the mainstream public. You can want national health care, support a ton of Bernie Sanders's policies, yet still be angry about trigger warnings and the rest of the ridiculousness emanating from college campuses. Rationality has left the building. But the point here is not reality, but MESSAGING! The left gets labeled and then accepts the label. The right is fighting a war, the left is fighting amongst itself.
I'm not going to even bother to delve deeply into the issues, the point here is the battle. The right is truly convinced that the left is coming for its way of life. The left? Well, they look around and think things are pretty good, and when an issue arrives... NOW they're concerned about the makeup of the Supreme Court, where were they when Hillary Clinton was the last line of defense here?
The Democrats only show up when it's too late. They can't seem to be energized before that. And who are you going to believe anyway. The right is all about true believers. The left is all about compromise with mealy-mouthed candidates who no one can believe in but the fat cats that support them.
And the right is playing the long game. The Federalist Society. The focus on control of state governments. You don't win on the first day, you can't just show up every two or four years for elections. And what is going to make you show up anyway?
As for social tropes... That's what people care about, that's what energizes them. Trans people in their bathrooms. Bad books in schools. Progress always wins, IN TIME! After all, gay people can get married and marijuana is legal in so many states, but... That's not the game, the real game is ginning up some issue to make sure people get energized and vote Republican, next time there's just another issue.
Meanwhile, those on the left who do care have no idea what is truly going on with the right. They've excised both their Republican friends and Republican media. They look around and think everything is okay. Everybody they know is on the same page. Or the trouble is in red states, or other places that don't affect them. But authoritarianism never sleeps, just like rust.
Yes, the right wants someone to make it right, to keep the trains running on time, if not the post office. Then again, they want the trains gone too, at least government support for them. But they're willing to sacrifice so much, even their vaunted freedom, so immigrants don't cross the border and darkies don't move into their neighborhood and take power. If it takes a strongman to achieve this, so be it.
Does democracy hang in the balance?
It does. But try convincing the rank and file voter, who can't make ends meet. They're looking at today, maybe tomorrow, but the long view is out of their purview, beyond their vision, their goal is just to live that long, to be housed and fed, never mind shot along the way in unsafe neighborhoods that the right keep crowing about and the left can't seem to improve.
So even if you're motivated, it's hard to believe in the left. We want vision, a march forward, not more of the same. Terry McAuliffe was a flawed candidate. Then again, the left specializes in this, running compromise candidates who no one can believe in. Forget the agenda, can I at least believe in those who are running? Nothing seems to get done in D.C. anyway. How is it the flaw in moving forward is the rogue Manchin and Sinema when the real enemy is the block on the right who won't participate in government, who refuse to even investigate 1/6? Talk about messaging, talk about controlling the dialogue.
So this is the way it is folks. The Republicans need it more and will do anything and everything to get what they want. They're even challenging the underlying game. Meanwhile, those on the left believe in an era of government from half a century ago, which is long gone.
There's no way Biden wins in 2024. And if he doesn't run, and he probably won't, there's no way in hell Kamala Harris can win. I can't think of a single person to nominate. Trump is on his way to victory. Whether he keeps his hand on the scale or not. It's hiding in plain sight but those on the left refuse to see it, refuse to believe it can happen, deny the deleterious effects like Jews in Germany.
When do you freak out? The Democrats are like lobsters in a pot. Not even complaining their space is restricted, that they've been caught and are no longer in the ocean, and oblivious as the temperature goes up and they're slowly cooked. Once upon a time they were raw, but self-interest and disinterest allowed them to cede ground slowly and then...
This is how you lose a democracy, slowly, and then all at once.
But I'm not trying to scare you. It's the unreachable I'm trying to scare. They're just too somnambulant, down their pleasure pathways on the internet, to be paying attention, to truly get it. Wouldn't you like to have an enemy like this? The Republicans are hoovering up adherents while the left is in total disarray, no legendary leaders, not even a coherent agenda, not even the ability to enact change.
North Vietnam won.
As did the Taliban.
Because they wanted it that much. They needed it that much. It was all they thought about 24/7.
Just like the Republicans.
--
Visit the archive: http://lefsetz.com/wordpress/
--
Listen to the podcast:
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Monday 1 November 2021
Fantasy Band-Bass Player-This Week On SiriusXM
Who would you pick to be the bass player of the fantasy band?
This is not necessarily the best bass player, but the best bass player for a BAND!
Tune in tomorrow, Novemver 2nd, to Volume 106, 7 PM East, 4 PM West.
Phone #: 844-6-VOLUME, 844-686-5863
Twitter: @lefsetz or @siriusxmvolume/#lefsetzlive
Hear the episode live on SiriusXM VOLUME: siriusxm.us/HearLefsetzLive
If you miss the episode, you can hear it on demand on the SiriusXM app: siriusxm.us/LefsetzLive
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This is not necessarily the best bass player, but the best bass player for a BAND!
Tune in tomorrow, Novemver 2nd, to Volume 106, 7 PM East, 4 PM West.
Phone #: 844-6-VOLUME, 844-686-5863
Twitter: @lefsetz or @siriusxmvolume/#lefsetzlive
Hear the episode live on SiriusXM VOLUME: siriusxm.us/HearLefsetzLive
If you miss the episode, you can hear it on demand on the SiriusXM app: siriusxm.us/LefsetzLive
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Sunday 31 October 2021
The Music Industry In Ten Years
OLD ACTS DIE
Don Henley is telling audiences at Eagles shows that this may be the last time they see the band. Whether this is true or not, so many of the legendary classic acts are in their seventies, and despite their plastic surgery nobody lives forever, and neither will they. This will put the nail in the coffin of rock and roll, just like the casket containing jazz was sealed over half a century ago. People will still play the music, but there will be very few rock hits.
PEOPLE WILL STOP COMPLAINING ABOUT STREAMING PAYMENTS
Yes, splits with record companies could be better, but the truth is there are only a hundred cents in the dollar. Once again, it's the oldsters bitching loudest, and as they sail off into the sunset their cries will die with them. As for younger acts, they no longer see recording income as the end all and be all. When people talk about Drake or the Weeknd they don't talk about the record deals they sign, or the amount of money they make from recordings, but their income overall, which comes from multiple revenue streams. Youngsters see that there are many ways to monetize today, that being a musical star is an entrée into a cornucopia of revenue opportunities. Their goal is to get enough traction, become a big enough star, to qualify for those opportunities. As for wannabes, they've always bitched and still will.
DEVELOPING LIVE ACTS
There's nowhere to play. So more acts will make it from their bedrooms. Bands are passé. Nothing is universal these days, NOTHING. Meaning there will still be hard rock bands, the kind you hear on Active Rock radio, but people coming up will realize that first and foremost it's about the track, Lil Nas X being the perfect example. Our entire nation has shifted inside, and it's not only the pandemic that caused this. The local bar where a band can get started playing covers is nearly gone. Wanna make it? Write and record a hit song.
HIT SONGS
Are tracks that people know, not tracks pushed by the machine. Doesn't matter if they're on the radio, in advertisements, it's just a matter of whether they're hooky and special enough to penetrate the public consciousness. Sure, those in the top of the Spotify Top 50 can be hits, but not all of them are.
HYPE VS. REALITY
The gap between the two of them will continue to widen. The younger you are, the less susceptible to hype you are, well, at least if you've reached puberty. Today so many have grown up in a world where TV is on demand and doesn't have commercials. They don't read physical newspapers. Ads are something they tolerate online. But if you want to win in online advertising you must be gentle and truly fit the surfer's specific needs. To experience this go on Instagram. Surf long enough and you'll be seeing ads that make you think "this could help me". As far as big marketing campaigns that shove things down our throat, not only are they less effective, they have the opposite effect, they turn people off.
E-SPORTS GROW
Football causes too many injuries that our nation ignores, at least many parents no longer let their kids play football...baseball is too slow and boring...hockey has never gained traction outside of Canada and Russia...basketball's hipness seems to be fading, it will be played forever but its arc of popularity will be based on charismatic stars, then again, even these have less impact than ever before...it all comes down to E-sports: the action is fast, the barrier to entry is low, everybody plays them, anybody can make it. The point being if you want to promote an act, attach it to E-sports. Which is why concerts on Twitch are so big.
PRODUCTION IS KING
The bigger the show, the more the production. The bigger the show, the less it's about music. This is the Broadwayification of the music business. If you're going to charge this much for tickets, there must be spectacle, the audience must be wowed by what they see nearly as much as what they hear.
FESTIVALS WILL THRIVE
We've learned there can only be a limited number of them, but that does not mean they won't grow in power and revenue. Ticket prices for festivals will go up and up. It's like going to an amusement park, the roller coaster is what makes the reputation, but many attendees don't even ride it. Many festivalgoers don't even see the headliner, but it's the headliner(s) that sells tickets. Festivals are a promoter's dream, if successful, they're uber-profitable. Therefore, headline prices will go up and up. Will headliners share in the gross? That will be argued, promoters will stick their heels in the ground, but just like acts with leverage get part of the Ticketmaster fee, they'll want part of festival revenue, or festival OWNERSHIP! Especially if you want to start a new festival, those who help you gain traction will want a piece, especially if it's not promoted by Live Nation or AEG, entities that can take the hit as the festival spends years trying to get in the black.
JOBS
Once it was cool to work at a record store, they no longer exist. Once it was cool to work at a record label, but they no longer divine culture, acts start elsewhere and the majors hoover them up. All the action is in the live sphere. Or on the internet. Online you can make your own destiny, and the younger generations know there is no lifetime employment and no one cares about them so they're always trying to make a buck online, and traditional industry is behind them. It takes money to be a promoter, but not to be a label. Where you start with no money is online, breakthroughs in platforms, campaigns and acts will continue to thrive there. No one in the music industry saw TikTok coming.
COMPETITION SHOWS WILL EXIST BUT MEAN EVEN LESS
It's about the panel, the competition, not the music. Which is one reason why music competition shows have only burgeoned on network, which has to cover the widest audience. No music competition show has worked on a streaming outlet, NONE! Because online it's about the goods as opposed to the penumbra. When you slice and dice the audience, which is what happens in streaming, you've got to appeal to a narrow niche, and the truth is very few fans of any genre want to watch these shows, they'd rather just listen to the music. So the big paydays of celebrity judges will decline. Then again, if you're a star you always have power, because you have REACH! To grow a substantial audience and gain market share is almost impossible these days, so those who break through will be rewarded.
HIT ACTS AND THEN EVERYBODY ELSE
The head of the tail, which will be populated by ever fewer acts, will be where all the rewards are, because of both talent and reach. But music will continue to be overloaded with wannabe acts, the barrier to entry is essentially nonexistent and music is part of the fabric of life. But streaming sites might ultimately put up barriers to getting on their platforms, 60,000 new tracks a day on Spotify is just too much. Then again, Spotify, et al, may realize the negative consequences of disallowing people from their platforms is just too great and just pay for the storage space like YouTube, believing it's good for the business.
YOUTUBE MEANS LESS FOR MUSIC
People are now seeing a streaming music subscription as a necessity. Sure, YouTube Music gains subscribers, but it will never be a player, and so much of its base just wants videos without commercials. Also, YouTube's ads may now be de rigueur, but they've increased in number, don't appeal to the audience...it may be free, but it's a bad experience. Every time I go on YouTube I've got to say whether I want to subscribe? Imagine your phone service asking you whether you want to upgrade whenever you make a phone call...or text!
PUBLISHING
The share of streaming revenue going to songwriters will rise. It's artificially low because major labels also control publishers and they don't care where the money comes from, as long as it comes. But now so many publishing assets are outside the major label sphere. With sophisticated investors/owners who want a return. This has popularized the plight of the songwriter. And when light shines on inequity, change happens. The U.K. government report said the problem wasn't streaming service payouts, but label payouts/deals. And now the light is shining on publishing, there will be change. But if you are a songwriter...it's about the hits. The days of having an album track pay your rent are history. So, like everything else in the system, a very few will make more money and everybody else will be on the sidelines. This is the story of the last twenty five years. All the tech companies are huge in value but have proportionately fewer workers than the old blue collar behemoths like General Motors. As the business continues to be refined it will require fewer workers, not more. But those who survive will be handsomely compensated.
CATALOG
Is what gives you power and revenue, which is why those who own it, like the major labels, will always have a seat at the table.
HITS
It always comes down to hits. And hit acts. That's the future. Distribution has been figured out, now it's all about software. If you're bitching about the platform you're either ancient or ignorant, or about to be displaced. There's a dearth of hit songs, and a dearth of magnetic acts. Breakthroughs are always unforeseen, and in a world of billions, there is someone who is always doing it differently. For some, the trappings are more important than the music, the sell, the wow factor is key. But there will be acts that focus on music only, that won't complain, whose credibility will be key to their adoption and success. Today everybody says yes, tomorrow's paradigm shifters will have to say no sometimes. These acts will not be brewed, not hatched by the usual suspects, they will come from seemingly nowhere. But to be ubiquitous you need help. Certainly from concert promoters. Online, you can to a great degree do it yourself, but an injection of cash, from a major with relationships, does aid the ascension. If you want to be a star in the future, be different, and not only in marketing. It's very hard to write a hit song, to make a great record, but that is the starting point, and the competition will get even more fierce. Talent and vision supersede boundaries and rules. Always have, always will.
Don Henley is telling audiences at Eagles shows that this may be the last time they see the band. Whether this is true or not, so many of the legendary classic acts are in their seventies, and despite their plastic surgery nobody lives forever, and neither will they. This will put the nail in the coffin of rock and roll, just like the casket containing jazz was sealed over half a century ago. People will still play the music, but there will be very few rock hits.
PEOPLE WILL STOP COMPLAINING ABOUT STREAMING PAYMENTS
Yes, splits with record companies could be better, but the truth is there are only a hundred cents in the dollar. Once again, it's the oldsters bitching loudest, and as they sail off into the sunset their cries will die with them. As for younger acts, they no longer see recording income as the end all and be all. When people talk about Drake or the Weeknd they don't talk about the record deals they sign, or the amount of money they make from recordings, but their income overall, which comes from multiple revenue streams. Youngsters see that there are many ways to monetize today, that being a musical star is an entrée into a cornucopia of revenue opportunities. Their goal is to get enough traction, become a big enough star, to qualify for those opportunities. As for wannabes, they've always bitched and still will.
DEVELOPING LIVE ACTS
There's nowhere to play. So more acts will make it from their bedrooms. Bands are passé. Nothing is universal these days, NOTHING. Meaning there will still be hard rock bands, the kind you hear on Active Rock radio, but people coming up will realize that first and foremost it's about the track, Lil Nas X being the perfect example. Our entire nation has shifted inside, and it's not only the pandemic that caused this. The local bar where a band can get started playing covers is nearly gone. Wanna make it? Write and record a hit song.
HIT SONGS
Are tracks that people know, not tracks pushed by the machine. Doesn't matter if they're on the radio, in advertisements, it's just a matter of whether they're hooky and special enough to penetrate the public consciousness. Sure, those in the top of the Spotify Top 50 can be hits, but not all of them are.
HYPE VS. REALITY
The gap between the two of them will continue to widen. The younger you are, the less susceptible to hype you are, well, at least if you've reached puberty. Today so many have grown up in a world where TV is on demand and doesn't have commercials. They don't read physical newspapers. Ads are something they tolerate online. But if you want to win in online advertising you must be gentle and truly fit the surfer's specific needs. To experience this go on Instagram. Surf long enough and you'll be seeing ads that make you think "this could help me". As far as big marketing campaigns that shove things down our throat, not only are they less effective, they have the opposite effect, they turn people off.
E-SPORTS GROW
Football causes too many injuries that our nation ignores, at least many parents no longer let their kids play football...baseball is too slow and boring...hockey has never gained traction outside of Canada and Russia...basketball's hipness seems to be fading, it will be played forever but its arc of popularity will be based on charismatic stars, then again, even these have less impact than ever before...it all comes down to E-sports: the action is fast, the barrier to entry is low, everybody plays them, anybody can make it. The point being if you want to promote an act, attach it to E-sports. Which is why concerts on Twitch are so big.
PRODUCTION IS KING
The bigger the show, the more the production. The bigger the show, the less it's about music. This is the Broadwayification of the music business. If you're going to charge this much for tickets, there must be spectacle, the audience must be wowed by what they see nearly as much as what they hear.
FESTIVALS WILL THRIVE
We've learned there can only be a limited number of them, but that does not mean they won't grow in power and revenue. Ticket prices for festivals will go up and up. It's like going to an amusement park, the roller coaster is what makes the reputation, but many attendees don't even ride it. Many festivalgoers don't even see the headliner, but it's the headliner(s) that sells tickets. Festivals are a promoter's dream, if successful, they're uber-profitable. Therefore, headline prices will go up and up. Will headliners share in the gross? That will be argued, promoters will stick their heels in the ground, but just like acts with leverage get part of the Ticketmaster fee, they'll want part of festival revenue, or festival OWNERSHIP! Especially if you want to start a new festival, those who help you gain traction will want a piece, especially if it's not promoted by Live Nation or AEG, entities that can take the hit as the festival spends years trying to get in the black.
JOBS
Once it was cool to work at a record store, they no longer exist. Once it was cool to work at a record label, but they no longer divine culture, acts start elsewhere and the majors hoover them up. All the action is in the live sphere. Or on the internet. Online you can make your own destiny, and the younger generations know there is no lifetime employment and no one cares about them so they're always trying to make a buck online, and traditional industry is behind them. It takes money to be a promoter, but not to be a label. Where you start with no money is online, breakthroughs in platforms, campaigns and acts will continue to thrive there. No one in the music industry saw TikTok coming.
COMPETITION SHOWS WILL EXIST BUT MEAN EVEN LESS
It's about the panel, the competition, not the music. Which is one reason why music competition shows have only burgeoned on network, which has to cover the widest audience. No music competition show has worked on a streaming outlet, NONE! Because online it's about the goods as opposed to the penumbra. When you slice and dice the audience, which is what happens in streaming, you've got to appeal to a narrow niche, and the truth is very few fans of any genre want to watch these shows, they'd rather just listen to the music. So the big paydays of celebrity judges will decline. Then again, if you're a star you always have power, because you have REACH! To grow a substantial audience and gain market share is almost impossible these days, so those who break through will be rewarded.
HIT ACTS AND THEN EVERYBODY ELSE
The head of the tail, which will be populated by ever fewer acts, will be where all the rewards are, because of both talent and reach. But music will continue to be overloaded with wannabe acts, the barrier to entry is essentially nonexistent and music is part of the fabric of life. But streaming sites might ultimately put up barriers to getting on their platforms, 60,000 new tracks a day on Spotify is just too much. Then again, Spotify, et al, may realize the negative consequences of disallowing people from their platforms is just too great and just pay for the storage space like YouTube, believing it's good for the business.
YOUTUBE MEANS LESS FOR MUSIC
People are now seeing a streaming music subscription as a necessity. Sure, YouTube Music gains subscribers, but it will never be a player, and so much of its base just wants videos without commercials. Also, YouTube's ads may now be de rigueur, but they've increased in number, don't appeal to the audience...it may be free, but it's a bad experience. Every time I go on YouTube I've got to say whether I want to subscribe? Imagine your phone service asking you whether you want to upgrade whenever you make a phone call...or text!
PUBLISHING
The share of streaming revenue going to songwriters will rise. It's artificially low because major labels also control publishers and they don't care where the money comes from, as long as it comes. But now so many publishing assets are outside the major label sphere. With sophisticated investors/owners who want a return. This has popularized the plight of the songwriter. And when light shines on inequity, change happens. The U.K. government report said the problem wasn't streaming service payouts, but label payouts/deals. And now the light is shining on publishing, there will be change. But if you are a songwriter...it's about the hits. The days of having an album track pay your rent are history. So, like everything else in the system, a very few will make more money and everybody else will be on the sidelines. This is the story of the last twenty five years. All the tech companies are huge in value but have proportionately fewer workers than the old blue collar behemoths like General Motors. As the business continues to be refined it will require fewer workers, not more. But those who survive will be handsomely compensated.
CATALOG
Is what gives you power and revenue, which is why those who own it, like the major labels, will always have a seat at the table.
HITS
It always comes down to hits. And hit acts. That's the future. Distribution has been figured out, now it's all about software. If you're bitching about the platform you're either ancient or ignorant, or about to be displaced. There's a dearth of hit songs, and a dearth of magnetic acts. Breakthroughs are always unforeseen, and in a world of billions, there is someone who is always doing it differently. For some, the trappings are more important than the music, the sell, the wow factor is key. But there will be acts that focus on music only, that won't complain, whose credibility will be key to their adoption and success. Today everybody says yes, tomorrow's paradigm shifters will have to say no sometimes. These acts will not be brewed, not hatched by the usual suspects, they will come from seemingly nowhere. But to be ubiquitous you need help. Certainly from concert promoters. Online, you can to a great degree do it yourself, but an injection of cash, from a major with relationships, does aid the ascension. If you want to be a star in the future, be different, and not only in marketing. It's very hard to write a hit song, to make a great record, but that is the starting point, and the competition will get even more fierce. Talent and vision supersede boundaries and rules. Always have, always will.
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