Friday 21 June 2024

Queen For A Billion

I don't really care. I'm burned out on these gigantic catalog sales. But maybe this is important, maybe this isn't just a banking deal, maybe Sony has insight that is not being acknowledged.

Bear with me here.

The bottom line is we are not minting new superstars. So the value of old superstars goes up! If everybody knows your name, in an era where that's nearly impossible to accomplish, think of the value!

At Canadian Music Week Don Passman said he advises his clients not to sell. Most people regret it. But if it's for estate planning...

But the dirty little secret is although Bryan May is 76, Roger Taylor is 74 and John Deacon is only 72! They could live for another three decades.

Or die tomorrow, but...

When it comes to money, the financiers are always smarter than you are, ALWAYS! This is their business. Running the numbers, making bets. Your business is making music. How many times have you gotten screwed in your career? If you haven't been screwed, you're not successful.

As for getting the money now... You've got a steady stream of income, what are you going to do with the cash? Put it in the bank and you're LOSING money! Everything else is inherently risky, much more risky than the royalties of a superstar act.

And we've seen this movie over and over again. Michael Jackson beat Paul McCartney in a bidding war for Beatles copyrights and they ended up being worth more than ten times the purchase price. How about Colonel Parker selling Elvis's catalog?

As for your advisors... It's very hard to turn down a payday, it's human nature. It takes a special kind of person to give up their commission on a big sale. So beware of people pushing you into selling.

But assuming you're out, where does that leave the purchaser?

Let's be clear, this Queen deal is not only the songs, like with Hipgnosis and the rest of the new publishing giants. Sony is buying EVERYTHING! And with total control of all the assets comes power. You can maximize the value.

Irving Azoff's company buys the Beach Boys. Let me ask you, is the Beach Boys' music ever going to evaporate? Not only is it steady, we're just one revival away from a burst of notice and revenue. Could be a TikTok, a film usage, there's a giant catalog of instantly catchy hits, the band is the sound of the summer, and nobody has ever come close. Song of the summer today? God, even Spotify now has a playlist, but odds are you haven't heard most of the songs and don't care, it seems the only people who truly do care are the press and the acts and their handlers who are on said list. The rest of us ignore it, if we're even aware it exists.

But Bob Dylan? Just like we never got a new Beatles, we never got a new Bob Dylan. So buying the songs was a good idea. However Universal does not own the recordings.

Bruce Springsteen sold absolutely everything to Sony. I'll posit that the Boss is less universal than Queen. He doesn't even go clean everywhere. But "Born to Run" is an anthem. And when Bruce dies, he'll become an even bigger icon, because we've never gotten a new Bruce and what Bruce represents is impossible to find in today's marketplace. Honest musician, who can sing, write and play, who's never sold out to the man who is singing from his heart about life in these United States. He's one of a kind, like with Queen, he's just one placement from ubiquity.

That's what happened with Queen. "Wayne's World." Period.

Just like Journey and "The Sopranos." Journey headlines stadiums without even the real singer of their hits! The hits have eclipsed the band! Think of the value there. And there wasn't only one hit, but many.

But Queen is unique. From an era when that mattered, when me-too was anathema (in sound, not behavior). The band melded prog rock with straight rock without synthesizers and had hits as varied as not only
"Bohemian Rhapsody," but "Crazy Little Thing Called Love" and "We Are the Champions" and "We Will Rock You." The breadth alone gives the band gravitas.

In other words, Queen is selling too low. Sure, the band is getting the money now, but in a world of niches, everybody knows Queen. And as stated above, Queen has a unique identity.

Not everybody is forever, but there are many more that still own their rights. I mean if Queen is worth a billion, then the Eagles are worth at least two. Then again, over Henley's dead body. By not maximizing the value of the catalogue, Henley and the Eagles have increased it! Proving once again, if you're willing to leave money on the table, there are bigger paydays down the road.

Now supposedly Sony is going to maximize the asset, the virtual ABBA show has been bandied about as an example. That was an incredibly heavy investment. But if Queen is selling all those tickets with a fake lead singer and sans Deacon's bass playing... Think of the demand!

The rich get richer and the poor struggle for recognition, never mind remuneration.

And maybe you're not rich enough to maximize the value yourself. Which might argue for having a partner. But if you sell out completely and there's a huge jump in revenue...your image, your legacy is burnished.

Some of these acts already have enough money. They're very interested in lasting.

And think of the acts further down the totem pole. Get the right team involved and they can be much bigger than they are today. Because no one is minting new superstars! So the old stars become even BIGGER!

It goes really deep. Kids are turned on to the classics by their parents. By Disney. The rights holder doesn't even have to do any marketing, it can just lay back and collect the cash. But work it just a bit... Hell, what was the value of Kate Bush before and after the use in "Stranger Things"?

The paradigm has shifted. Yes, it used to be that most acts' value, their revenue, decreased over time. But today, in many cases it goes up! Because there's no one else in their league.

Sure, advertisers have paid handsomely for catalog in the past, but now movies and streaming shows... They want to use tracks everybody knows, how many of those are there?

Sony could be sitting on a gold mine. That they bought cheaply.

Music is not tech. It doesn't lose its value with new innovation, rather when done right it is unique, stands alone, and if not fresh, is emblematic of the times.

Furthermore, it all comes down to the song, it always comes down to the song. You can't sing most of the Spotify Top 50, which means the odds of those songs lasting are low. It's only when the public can sing along, with or without the record, when the melody and the chorus and the riff stick in their head, that the endless pot of gold is developed.

And they said Napster ruined the recorded music industry, that no one would pay for music again. EVERYONE is paying. Sure, you might get it for free on YouTube, but the rights holder is being paid. And you might listen for free but go to the show and buy merch and...

The future's so bright I gotta wear shades!


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Shows You Plan To Go To-SiriusXM This Week

Tune in Saturday June 22nd to Faction Talk, channel 103, at 4 PM East, 1 PM West.

Phone #: 844-686-5863 

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Thursday 20 June 2024

Willie Mays

You could say it's the end of an era, but in truth that era died on January 12, 1969, when the New York Jets beat the Baltimore Colts in Super Bowl III. Joe Namath predicted it, and when it came true not only was he a hero in New York, but throughout the country.

We didn't pay attention to the rest of the globe. And people were just starting to play soccer in the U.S. We were so self-focused that the baseball championship was called the World Series, even though nobody else in the world competed.

But it was more than the Jets' victory. It was Namath himself. The sixties had finally caught up with sports. Namath had facial hair, and a nightclub, he had trouble with authority, he resonated with both youngsters and oldsters, whereas baseball players...

But those on the diamond had their heyday. Kind of like rock and roll. It may be in bad shape now, but for decades it was EVERYTHING!

This is hard for those not alive in the fifties and sixties to understand. As for those conscious before that, not many of them are even left.

There are statistics, records, and we knew them, from the back of baseball cards if nothing else, but they could not convey the essence, the power of the game. You got that from watching, whether in the stadium or at home, in black and white.

It started with spring training and didn't finish until the first week of October, with the end of the World Series. Baseball was a summer sport, but in the name of cash, no sport observes its natural limits anymore. Football is played in February, hockey and basketball in June, and the World Series is oftentimes played in November and it all runs together, but it didn't used to be this way.

There were eight teams in each league, and then it spread to ten. This was a big deal, a very big deal. And the Yankees won almost every year. Which disappointed others, but their sheer dominance, their sheer talent, was akin to what Michael Jordan or Tiger Woods embodied in their heyday. But the Yankees and baseball had even further reach. You may not be able to name a song from the latest Taylor Swift album, but everybody knew that Mickey Mantle and Roger Maris were battling to beat Babe Ruth's home run record in 1961.

And the uniforms! They were not double-knits, they were flannel, and heavy, and warm. And the stockings came up almost to the knee. There was tradition, the game was the same as it ever was. But then came the designated hitter and...

George Carlin's breakthrough routine was about the difference between baseball and football. You can probably recite it in your head right now. Remember, football is played on a gridiron, baseball in a field...we don't know when a game will end, it could go on FOREVER!

And ultimately that's what happened. And it contributed to the demise of the sport's popularity.

Along with night games. Baseball was a daylight game, played at night irregularly. You were glued to your transistor at work, the scores were passed by fans in school hallways. If you were lucky, your teacher would allow you to listen to the World Series on the public address system. And you rode your bike home fast to try and catch the last couple of innings.

And then there were the cards, and the annuals. Screw the gum, you needed the cards. Which you flipped and traded and they were seen as a momentary diversion until the boomers came of age and in a fit of nostalgia decided the cards were valuable, and oftentimes scarce, because like the rest of our childhood toys, they'd been thrown away.

But going to the game. The field was so green! It was the biggest public edifice you'd ever been in. It was special. And that feeling remains. But the tickets are no longer cheap. Anybody could afford to go to a baseball game, and many did.

Until they were all on TV. Then people stopped going. Baseball can be easier to comprehend on TV, especially football. But the NFL said the games couldn't be televised locally unless they sold out. The NFL was based on scarcity, there were only a limited number of games, whereas baseball was played every day, like a job, it was immediate, it was part of your life, and you liked that.

By time the seventies rolled around hockey surged, with the success of the Bruins and the Islanders, who had rabid fans. And the NBA got a boost from Willis Reed and the rest of the Knicks, and there was an endless conveyor belt of phenoms. From Dr. J to Pistol Pete to... Baseball players started to fade into the background. They were two dimensional. Hard to relate to. They hadn't been to college. They were oftentimes seen as hayseeds as opposed to denizens of the city.

Of course the seventies yielded Reggie Jackson. Namath with a bat. But his constant battles with Steinbrenner oftentimes undercut the show.

And Steinbrenner may have won, but he dissed Yogi Berra. And there were the shenanigans with Billy Martin.

And eventually there was the home run race of 1998, between Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa, but it was ultimately tainted by steroids. Cocaine was one thing, illegal, but it didn't enhance your ability. But if you're cheating...

Mickey Mantle was no saint.

Then again, Willie Mays was.

Those were the two dominant players of their era. Of course there were supporting players, but we had Mickey in the American League and Willie in the National, they stood head and shoulders above the rest. They were the icons, and you never exactly knew when they'd deliver. Mickey would strike out, and then he come to bat in a clutch situation and wallop one over the wall.

Willie was more homespun. Willie didn't need the spotlight, the spotlight found him, he was just that good.

But then Willie was exiled to San Francisco, and played in a park with such bad weather that it impacted his stats and he played three hours later than the teams on the east coast. But in 1962 he was in New York battling the Yankees in the World Series and it looked like the Giants might win, and then Bobby Richardson jumped to catch a blazing line drive and...

Then there was the famous catch. Backwards. Of Vic Wertz's deep ball. And the throw thereafter. This was legendary, as well known as Woodstock years later. It was basic lore, it was in our DNA, it's one thing to run and snare the ball, but BACKWARDS? In the deep center field of the Polo Grounds?

The parks were still old. And in some ways decrepit. There were no luxury boxes. We were all in it together.

But that was the fifties and sixties. Sure, there were flaws, engendering protests, rebellion, but seemingly everybody was middle class, there were no billionaires, and we saw it as our duty to raise the level of life for those in poverty.

I have these memories. They're emblazoned in my brain.

Like the time I bought a biography of Willie on the boardwalk in Atlantic City. I think it was fifteen cents, maybe a quarter, back when paperbacks were cheap. I needed more. We all needed more.

And now there's too much.

But the heroes of the past. Today's generations have no idea how big they were.

And Willie Mays was one of the titans. We admired baseball players, we imitated them, we wanted to be them. Work at a bank? No, you'd rather play ball.

And then came rock and roll.


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Donald Sutherland

I was having dinner with John Brodey at Ago and he told me his Australian film director buddy Fred Schepisi might be stopping by.

It used to be Bono's. Sonny's place. Before that I can't remember. But it was always Italian. And right there at the intersection of Melrose and La Cienega. The last time I was there Jack Douglas invited me for dinner with Richard Lewis, Steven Bauer, Geoff Emerick and a few other buddies. Before we sat down Richard and I made up, after our encounter at McCabe's, when we wall went to see Terry Reid. Knowing the booker, I got in early and saved the seats. But while I was waving to our group, showing them where I was, Richard slipped behind me and sat down in my seat, on the end of the row, on the aisle. I was not happy, but ultimately I moved deeper into the row, but Richard knew what he'd done, so he yelled over, "My back, I've got a bad back, I've got to sit on the end!" That was Richard Lewis. He was the same neurotic guy he was on stage and in "Curb Your Enthusiasm." And funny, his wife was as down to earth as he was crazy. I always quote Richard... He said before he met Joyce he dated slaves. Women who would do whatever he wanted. Joyce stood up to him.

As for Geoff Emerick... The rule of famous people is you don't talk to them about what they're famous for. But the remix of "Sgt. Pepper" had just come out and ultimately I brought this up with Geoff and he went from zero to one hundred instantly, he was pissed! The stereo mixes weren't afterthoughts, they'd put time into them, they were what everybody wanted.

As for Steven Bauer... What a character. He was just off his success in "Ray Donovan," and he assumed I knew all about it, when in truth I'd never seen the series. But after recounting his success, recalling the high points, he started telling me the story of his family's exit from Cuba. In detail. And not only was it fascinating, Bauer was treating me like a good friend, he was convivial, intimate, I could see why he was successful. Then again, was he really the guy in "Scarface"?

But that was years later. My dinner with Brodey was at the beginning of the twenty first century, in the main room, as opposed to the private back room I was in with Jack and his friends.

So we're just about finished and Fred enters the restaurant. With an entourage. A couple of women, another guy, and...

Donald Sutherland.

I mean come on, DONALD SUTHERLAND? Was there ever anybody cooler? Well, there was James Dean... Let's not argue about it, let's just say that Donald Sutherland was always cool. He burst on to the scene in "M*A*S*H," the breakthrough Robert Altman film, which was platformed as opposed to opened wide back in 1970, there was a small ad in the "Times" for weeks before it opened, building buzz about a movie almost no one was aware of.

In the movie Sutherland embodied the sixties, he was IRREVERENT! He didn't take it too seriously, he could see the humor in the insanity of war. That was what the era was all about, questioning authority.

And then there was "Klute" and even "Day of the Locust." As well as the cult movie "Don't Look Now," back when there used to be cult movies that you had to see at the revival house, that even if they played on television we didn't see, because we didn't own TVs, and they were edited anyway.

And "Steelyard Blues." And "Ordinary People." Donald Sutherland was part of the firmament, a true Hollywood star, someone who was not always playing himself, someone who emanated his interior thoughts, not only his exterior visage.

So we finished up and went over to Fred's table. They were in a booth, Brodey and I pulled up chairs on the outside. They'd just come from filming. And Fred was so NICE!

A lot of Hollywood people can be standoffish, especially if they don't know who you are.

But not Fred. He set the tone for the conversation. It was breezy. So, after the better part of ten minutes, I participated, I joined in.

And Donald Sutherland immediately gave me sh*t. Wow.

And when I spoke again, he criticized my word usage. And went on about it. So I STFU!

What an as*hole. I was not dominating the conversation. We were all having fun. But according to Sutherland, I was not entitled to speak. So I didn't.

I sat there in silence for nearly half an hour. I know the rules, it's not about me. But I can't say I was happy. It wasn't like they were discussing things I was unfamiliar with, it wasn't inside baseball.

And then, when I was completely calm, but not quite detached, Sutherland pontificated, about this or that. From his high horse.

And that's when I saw my opening.

I gave HIM sh*t!

And he was stunned. Speechless. He'd left an opening and I walked right in and slammed him right down. Employing the same holier-than-thou attitude he did.

And then I did it again.

And then Sutherland shut up for a while. Licked his wounds.

But then he said something and included me as part of his team. Like the two of us were speaking to the table at large. And then we started amping it up, playing with the language, making jokes, having a rollicking good time. The center of attention had shifted to us.

And when the evening came to a close, we all got up, for the long goodbye, and Donald embraced me in a bear hug, smiling, talking about the next time we got together.

That never happened, but...

Let that be a lesson to you. People will try to put you down, keep you in your place, and if you can't speak truth to power, you will be stepped on.

Whereas if you rise up and play their game...


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Tyler Grimm-This Week's Podcast

Tyler Grimm is Chief Counsel for Policy and Strategy for the House Judiciary Committee majority staff. We address intellectual property legislation and how the sausage is made. This is an insider's view into what really goes on in Congress.

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/tyler-grimm/id1316200737?i=1000659622721
 
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/1mCGmJhAieizEoyNDpDjq9?si=KDUJ1_XUQiuk1XEIdKu_ZA
 
Amazon: https://music.amazon.com/podcasts/9ff4fb19-54d4-41ae-ae7a-8a6f8d3dafa8/episodes/06d3285e-408d-48e8-afd1-2a6dd4459fbe/the-bob-lefsetz-podcast-tyler-grimm
 
iHeart: https://www.iheart.com/podcast/1119-the-bob-lefsetz-podcast-30806836/episode/tyler-grimm-187468237/?cmp=web_share&embed=true


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Wednesday 19 June 2024

Justin Timberlake DUI

It's not going to make any difference. Except maybe to Justin himself. Refuse to take a biological sobriety test in California and you automatically lose your license. I'm not sure of the law in New York, and the issue is complicated by the fact that Timberlake was probably driving on a California license. And in any event, Timberlake can afford a driver, or at least Uber, but not being able to drive yourself is a big pain in the ass.

There's only one taboo in America anymore. Pedophilia. Oh, we can extend that into other sex crimes, but everything else gets a shrug, at least from those paying attention. One can argue that going to jail in the hip-hop world raises your cred. And I can say the same thing here with Timberlake. His squeaky-clean image could use a bit of roughing up. It took years, but there's been blowback about his emerging sans penalty in the Super Bowl Nipplegate, and Britney Spears took a swing at him, but Timberlake is more akin to a star of old, sleek and bulletproof. But nobody is that way anymore, nobody, that's what social media has wrought.

Now this all began with Bristol Palin. Her mother was nominated for Vice President and didn't tell the higher ups that her teenage daughter was pregnant, out of wedlock, supposedly a big taboo in the Christian Republican world, if not the world at large. But it didn't hurt Palin a bit, she went on to numerous financial opportunities, she made bank after stepping down as the governor of Alaska. As for Bristol... She had her own reality show.

You see many people have babies out of wedlock. Statistics tell us teen pregnancy is down, then again it was lauded by MTV. But this is not the sixties, where you send your daughter away to have the baby and then give it away doing your best to scrub the landscape clean, leaving their image and CV intact.

And then came Trump. You can't say anything positive about Trump or the Biden-lovers will excoriate you, but the truth is we've got to credit Trump for bringing us into reality eight years ago. Trump used taboo words, talked about taboo subjects, and the "New York Times" may not use swear words, but you do, everybody does!

So we've seen a societal adjustment. We no longer live in a two-tiered world. Dignified and undignified. Washed and unwashed. We're all in it together, and one must not only realize this, but accept it.

In the sixties, even the seventies, the rich hid their wealth. They clothed themselves in chinos and Topsiders, they traveled in old Country Squires, but when the baby boomers made bank in the eighties, that was out the window. Today you boast about your wealth. You flash it. You want to be seen as a "rock star," even though that moniker doesn't fit these people.

So Justin Timberlake got arrested for driving while drunk. You might have. Certainly someone in your circle has. Does that make them a bad person? Of course there are alcoholics who get arrested time and again and should be off the streets, but no one believes that's Justin Timberlake. Furthermore, musicians have done drugs forever and Tom Petty died of a fentanyl overdose. Do we judge Tom for that? If anything, we give him props because he did his last tour in pain, he was self-medicating so everybody else could get paid.

No one is not going to buy a concert ticket because Justin Timberlake got arrested for a DUI. No one sits in judgment that way anymore. And if you're a fan of somebody, it's almost impossible to be convinced otherwise. That's what's confounding about the Trumpers, they cannot be convinced otherwise, that Donald is flawed, shouldn't be elected, if anything they've doubled-down. That's the nature of fandom today. You rally around your hero, you don't abandon them.

As for casual fans...

That's an interesting concept. The whole world used to run on casual fans. They filled the rest of the seats in the arena, they bought the album a year or two out, they went to see the popular movie...but that concept is dying, if not near dead.

You see people just don't feel the pressure to be a member of the herd anymore. Everybody's got their own interests and that's enough. The press hasn't realized this. And the gossip press lives for events like Timberlake's DUI. Because it's all about garnering eyeballs, which deliver money. They'll publicize any faux pas.

But that does not mean the public will pay attention, that it will resonate with them. Which is why most music publicity, nearly all traditional publicity, is worthless these days.

We need to give money to Biden so he can advertise on TV. Screw that, advertise on TikTok and Instagram!

The funny thing about social media advertising is oftentimes it's as good as the posts. Innovative, frequently about innovative products. Sometimes you're not even sure if it's an ad. Sure, it's great to go viral spontaneously, but you can buy your way in, and should. But I don't see Biden ads on these services.

But the people running Biden's campaign are not on these services. They pooh-pooh them. Only deplorables spend time on them, wasted time, and the platforms need to be shut down. How well did that attitude work for Hillary Clinton? It didn't. The game changes and nobody in D.C. seems to be aware of it. Maybe because the only way you can understand the new game is by participating in it. If you want to be plugged in spend at least fifteen minutes on either TikTok or Instagram Reels every day for a week. You'll get a feel for America. That's all it takes. But oldsters sit in judgment while youngsters move on, there's a giant generation gap, the same one that has the youth saying both Biden and Trump are too old.

And for all the haters, of course I'm going to vote for Biden if he's the ultimate nominee, and you never know, that's the strange thing about life, unexpected stuff happens. Of course I'm afraid of Trump getting elected, I'm fearful of the death of democracy. But Biden could lose. As a matter of fact, he's losing right now. And I don't see him and his team doing anything to change this. All his acolytes just say to hold tight and pray that he wins in November. That's not a good strategy. But by pointing this out...

Elon Musk owns a platform, and he spews his insanity each and every day. He understands that he or she who owns the media wins the game. Can you say "Rupert Murdoch"?

And one of the big stories today is how Tucker Carlson is touring Australia and has trouble selling tickets. Proving that the platform is more powerful than the individual. The hardest thing to do is to gain an audience. Turns out there were a limited number of Tucker fans, most were Fox fans. In addition, casual fans don't even know where to find Carlson today.

There's just too much in the pipeline, it's overwhelming.

So we're supposed to care about an aged pop star getting arrested for drunk driving?

That's one of the great stories of this arrest. The cop didn't even know who Timberlake was! Justin was too old and the police officer was too young. But Timberlake triumphed when we lived in a monoculture, and that's all mainstream media understands. The true stars of today, social media influencers, from Mr. Beast to gamers to cosmetic queens, are ignored, they don't fit the paradigm of yore, and the old media titans don't know who they are, what they mean, and are refusing to believe we live in a changed landscape.

Did you read in their last results that the "New York Times" had more people subscribing to cooking and puzzles than the basic news app?

But this is all freeing. You can make a mistake and recover. Then again, not if you're a politician, where gotcha still exists. But that's got more to do with those in office and their seconds than the public at large. How high a standard can you hold someone to these days? We're all flawed. And the sooner we accept this.

The sooner we win.


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Tuesday 18 June 2024

Pearl Jam For Half-Price

"UNEVEN CASH FLOW  - Fans of huge rock band left fuming as tickets for stadium show are slashed by 50% after poor sales": https://t.ly/hCCx2

But it's not only Pearl Jam, a thirty year old band, but newbie star Noah Kahan too:

"Noah Kahan pit tickets tonight in San Diego down $120 from yesterday. Lower Pavilion down $60. Why are you still buying tickets early? #PaysToWait": https://t.ly/-FLNe

The music business has historically been opaque. They say one thing when the truth is another. They'll tell you they're adding shows because the previous ones are sold out, so you buy extra tickets to scalp, but you end up finding out they lied, the previous show was not sold out, and you can't lay off your tickets at anywhere near face value, if at all.

But the landscape is changing. Because of information.

Let's start with the blue dots. The Ticketmaster site is a plethora of information. You can see what tickets are still available, which ones are for resale, and when J.Lo canceled her tour no one believed it, because there were seas of blue dots all over Ticketmaster.

But that's not all. Now we have Twitter sites that give you this information and more. I recommend you follow @underfacevalue and Ticket_Help2022 The insiders do, X provides this information.

So all we've been hearing about is ticket prices are artificially high because of Ticketmaster, no one in government speaks of supply and demand, but when it comes to restaurants...

You might not be following the kerfuffle. People are scalping restaurant reservations in New York. So they passed a law to try and eliminate this:

"Why NYC's Hottest Dining Reservations Will Stay Impossible to Score - A proposed law aimed at bots and scalpers who cater to rich and desperate restaurant fans isn't guaranteed to make getting a hot table easier."

Free link: https://t.ly/dCZaA

I love this Bloomberg headline, because it's exactly what insiders know about concert tickets and everyone in the government seems not to. The problem isn't Ticketmaster, the problem is SUPPLY AND DEMAND!

If you read this article you'll find that the average spend for dinner at these restaurants is $100 to $150. But when musical artists charge the same thing people go NUTS! The same boomers complaining about Springsteen ticket prices have no problem dropping these amounts for dinner. What gives? Each is an evanescent experience, and a concert might be once in a lifetime, the band might never come back to your town, you might never ever be able to see them again!

But no one is cracking down on concert ticket scalping, because the scalpers have too strong a lobby, they're organized, whereas the restaurant reservation business is a nascent one.

Rising Brown junior Alex Eisler made 100k selling restaurant reservations putting in only half an hour to two hours a day. Nature abhors a vacuum. Which is why we have restaurant reservation scalpers, and concert ticket scalpers. You'd think acts would charge what the ticket is worth, but no, they're afraid of being judged, WHY?

As for Pearl Jam... The band broke in the nineties. Their hard core fans are Gen-X'ers, now in their fifties. They have the money, but ironically they're the ones who think twice about paying it.

But we can argue that Pearl Jam is more of an American act.

But we can say the promoter misjudged the market. That's what happened with the Black Keys and J.Lo. What happened yesterday does not apply to today.

Yesterday, every show sold out. Demand was through the roof. Why not charge more, otherwise the scalpers will reap the benefit of the spread.

But it turns out the customer is saying no. This is the same customer who despite hearing ad infinitum how the economy is going great, finds food and other costs much more expensive.

They're holding on to their dollars.

So what we are seeing is a price correction, in front of our very eyes. And the public is aware of this. And no one, NO ONE, likes finding out the person right next to them paid less for what they bought. We've learned to accept this with airlines, but the end result is everybody hates the airlines, who've rigged the system by consolidation and lack of competition on routes. This is Napster waiting to happen. And in reality, airline prices are coming down too. That post-Covid mania has expired.

So what sells?

Well, Noah Kahan is a breakthrough artist. But how many people has he actually broken through to? This is not an MTV act from the eighties. Most people don't even know his name. And in reality, despite being in the marketplace for a number of years, he's seen as a new act, and people are wondering if it's worth it to lay down all this dough.

And if you're running on fumes, out playing your greatest hits...

Well, hopefully you're doing it at the shed, where the promoter has other streams of revenue besides tickets, where there is oftentimes a cheap lawn, because if you put up your show at the arena, GOOD LUCK!

But Taylor Swift shows sold out and parents couldn't buy their kids tickets so someone must be at fault.

The truth is Swift was a genius. She put up all her U.S. tickets at once to create mania to guarantee she went clean. Yes, the dirty little secret of the previous tour was she didn't sell every ticket. But when you get caught up in the maelstrom...you don't want to be left out. And never underestimate the power of parents. They're vicious when it comes to delivering what their kids want.

So what happens now?

Interesting question.

As for the universal boomer bands... They're close to the end, so everybody is truly wondering whether it's the last time. However, people have been speculating on the last time for years now. But, these bands have been going out at astronomical prices for a long time, so the public is used to it, and they are genuine superstars.

How many acts of the last fifteen years have reached this status, where everybody in America knows their tunes? Absolutely no one. Period. However, there are more people in America than ever before, and music is a unique visceral experience in a world where we all own the same devices. So it's a large cult audience and... No one goes to one of these shows on a whim, they're just too expensive.

And why do they keep canceling festivals? Are they too expensive or is the lineup not attractive enough or both?

And sometimes you can lower the prices and people still don't want to come.

So if you're planning a tour now... The data is just coming in. You could put up shows and do lousy business or put up shows and sell out and wish you played bigger buildings at higher prices.

And where is the government on this? Nowhere to be seen.

We are seeing a correction. The good old days are behind us. Are there new good days to come?

Well, we thought when the classic acts passed that everybody would be playing smaller buildings, but there are more stadium shows than ever before. Audiences are narrower, but they are very deep.

So here you find the essence of concert promotion. Nothing is guaranteed, it's a bet. AI ain't gonna tell you, data only means so much, it's a gut decision, and great music hits you in the same way, the gut.

But the bottom line is people don't want to pay as much as they've been paying for the past two years to see most acts. How much of this is the act, how much of this is the economy, how much of this is music's place in the landscape?

Let's ask the government. Ha!


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Monday 17 June 2024

Tour de France-Unchained-Season 2

Netflix trailer: https://t.ly/kiSF8

This is better than "Drive to Survive," which I stopped watching after Red Bull stole the championship from Lewis Hamilton, after Verstappen started winning all the races, and I stopped watching the races too. Sure, there is human drama, but the problem is the machines. If you're in a lousy car, there's no way you can win. Whereas with the Tour de France...it's not about the bicycle, it's about you.

And the team, of course, especially if you're going for the GC, which is the overall title. There is strategy, but sometimes riders throw the strategy out the window and just ride for themselves, which the owners/coaches hate, unless said rider wins.

I wrote about this series last year, this year is even better.

It's inherently flawed because you don't get a feel for the overall landscape, you're never told how many teams/riders are involved, how much money is involved, and that is frustrating, but it does not detract from your overall enjoyment of the series.

You see bike riding is dangerous. You can be going as fast as a motorcycle, and when you crash, which happens all the time, you're not wearing leather but a thin jersey... Talk about road rash!

But it really comes down to personalities. I hate, hate, HATE Jasper Phillipsen, who doesn't ride fair, he squeezes his competition into the barriers.

And I'm not a huge fan of Jonas Vingegaard either, he's quiet and skilled, but he's involved in the biggest controversy of the season. If you win by too much, if it's inhuman, did you...DOPE? Yes, that underlies cycling to this day.

Everybody takes it so seriously. You'd think the rest of life, politics, global warming, doesn't even exist. Which makes the series a great respite from everyday life. Big girls may not cry, but big men do, especially with joy, when seemingly impossible goals are achieved.

Do you root for the winner or the underdog? Is winning everything, or is how you win important?

There are twenty one stages and each is different. And the landscape is jaw-dropping.

There are other bicycle races, but this is the big kahuna. As for the athletes, it's a herculean feat, to be able to ride these distances, climb these mountains, day after day after day.

I don't watch much sports on TV anymore. Can I say it's a time-waster? Especially baseball, which used to be my favorite big league sport. I guess the essence is gone, and sure it comes down to the speed of the game, i.e. it's slow, but changing all the pitchers, swinging for the fences...

And now I'm going to hear from all the baseball lovers. All I'll say is I don't know where you find the time.

As for the NFL... John Madden said you play one game and your body will never be the same. I don't quite know why everybody's addicted, even the wimps who never played in high school or even on the sandlot. You may think you're an expert, but the true experts will tell you you don't really know what is going on on the field.

And then there's soccer/football, the world's game. Some say there's not enough scoring, but I don't watch that either.

I guess I can say that watching sports on television is no longer a priority, with so many other options available. There are things I'd rather do than spend hours watching sports. That's what the internet age has wrought, and that's what people can't get over. Why don't you listen to my record? Because it's a very low priority. If I heard you were the greatest thing since sliced bread, I might check you out, assuming I heard it from people I trust.

But I hope you trust my television recommendations.

I don't care if you've never gotten on a bike. I don't care if you don't understand how bike racing works. Neither will detract from your enjoyment of this series.

Bob Costas famously said that sports are a metaphor for life. And you see it all in this series. Which makes you feel human. You're involved. You don't feel the sport is at a distance, but it's right there. They're not talking down to you, they're just trying to win.

And not everybody can. And you can be a great rider and have a difficult personality...

CHECK THIS OUT!


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The Road Less Taken

You can't have a contrary opinion.

Let me restate that...you can't VERBALIZE a contrary opinion. You're supposed to adhere to the orthodoxy of your tribe, or else you become a pariah.

You can't say that Biden is old if you're a Democrat. You can't say you support Israel in Gaza if you're a Democrat.

This is political. Unfortunately, the Democrats are becoming who the Republicans said they were. Let's start on college campuses. Everything is seen through the lens of oppressor and oppressed, facts be damned. If you're the little guy, you have the advantage, someone must support David in his battle with Goliath, even if David is a terrorist.

And then there's the woke orthodoxy. And this is complicated. Because I don't believe that many are woke as the term is incorrectly defined by the Republicans. But they're afraid to stand up and say otherwise. If you're a Democrat you'd better beware of the language you use. You must employ the right pronouns, you must not step on anybody's toes, you must be fearful, for if you make a mistake you might be excommunicated from the tribe, your career might be ruined. Funny how the party that's supposedly a big tent requires everybody to have the same viewpoint.

I'm not saying we shouldn't look out for everybody's rights, I'm not saying all people are not created equally, I'm not saying that racism doesn't exist in America, it's just that Democrats believe we live in a fantasy world more akin to a Disney movie than reality.

As for the Republicans... They were the first political party to demand absolute fealty with no questions asked. The Democrats may deny that Biden is old, but the Republicans see a doddering old man who can't put a sentence together who demonstrates no knowledge of the political landscape and is a convicted felon and say...THAT'S MY GUY!

We can add in the ignorance leavened into the equation by the internet, where everybody gets their own news from a different source, and only the news that supports their view, but what I'm lamenting here is the lack of discussion, of analysis in America, to its detriment. And sure, many people who've been taught to the test lack the power of analysis, but even those who possess this skill have parked it for fear of excoriation.

And it's not only politics. If you don't think Taylor Swift is a talented cultural icon, the biggest act in the world, who can do no wrong, then you're wrong. And will be shouted down by every female in America.

At least K-pop fans used to keep to themselves. And One Direction fans before them. But now, if you believe in an act you must let everybody know they're inviolate, and nothing opposite can be said.

Which is kind of why there's a news blackout in the "left wing press" about the success of Morgan Wallen. These outlets are fearful that their readers will go bananas if something positive is written about the country superstar. Didn't he use the "N-word" (in a colloquial way that he learned from rap records) and throw a chair off the roof? Furthermore, no one on the left can see why anybody would support Wallen. And his fans know it. You know when you sit on the wrong side of the fence. Even if you're silent.

Today's music is as good as it ever was. Look at the statistics, Mariah Carey, Swift, others have the same chart numbers as the Beatles! Never mind it's not the same chart. And SAT scores are higher, never mind that they were so low that they added a hundred points to everybody's score a couple of decades back.

Problems either don't exist or they're the worst in the world. Climate change? There can be no rational debate on that, not if you're on the right side of the fence, and I mean Republican. You've got to fall in line if you're an elected Republican official. Want to know how it works? If you were anti-Trump, if you thought he needed to be impeached, you lost your seat. Doesn't matter if you toed the line on every other Republican issue. Can you say "Lynne Cheney"?

And if you're a Democrat you cannot fight back vociferously. You cannot live in the twenty first century. You must be civilized, because the Republican game is dirty and uncouth and if you employ it you will be stooping to their level and lose. When they go low, we go high. How's that working for you Michelle's minions?

And groupthink goes even further. Isn't there anybody who's going to say enough with the 808? A four decade old computerized sound which seems to appear on every hit record?

It goes on and on, ask any questions and you're the problem. You need to be quiet.

Meanwhile, those outside the discussion scratch their head and laugh. Biden is old and presents old. Sure, Trump is almost as old, but doesn't present in the same way. He isn't physically stiff and doesn't beam into the crowd like a Moonie.

America was founded by the rugged individual, we're drawn to they who have an individual opinion, that they'll fight for, who have charisma.

Today we're told to fall behind an intellectual construct, that oftentimes doesn't align with our emotional state. Follow your instincts, your gut? If you do that today you're going to find yourself out of step, I hope you like it alone out on the prairie, because that's where you're going to be. And that's lonely and most people can't handle it, they need to be a member of the group.

And there is nothing I've said above that you don't know. Everything is evident and obvious. But you've been taught not to acknowledge it, not to believe your eyes. And ears.

Yes, the movie and music businesses are so busy trying to hit grand slams that they keep releasing me-too product that doesn't resonate with the majority of the public. You'd think someone would go a different way, but not the major labels. And then these same labels try to rig the system in their favor, wanting more streaming payouts for stars and less for non-stars. Why? To ensure the longevity of their game. Which is kind of funny, since they've been disrupted again and again in the last twenty five years and never have they seen any of it coming. And Daniel Ek single-handedly saved the recorded music business, SINGLE-HANDEDLY! But if you don't say he's the devil, if you don't think streaming payments are unfair for small artists and wannabes, you're sold out to the man and your opinion doesn't count.

And sure, many of the opinions above are my own, but the dirty little secret is they're working for me. By expressing what people feel inside that they're afraid to say...that's the key to my success. What are you gonna do, read a trade publication saying everything's groovy? Or a consumer rag that avoids the real issues, and when it stumbles on them gets them wrong?

Hell, I get a monthly music magazine that gives every act a positive review. Each and every record. How does that help the reader?

Let your freak flag fly. That's how you'll gain success. And stop whining that the game is rigged against you. The game is just the game, you have to learn how to play it so you can win. And in life there are so many ways to win. I could delineate the multiple potential revenue streams of a musical act today, but all I'll get in response are STREAMING RATES ARE TOO LOW!

An artist goes down the road less taken. And you never know where inspiration will come from. And institutions oftentimes breed conformity. Which is why so many college graduates are bores going through the steps, whether at the bank or the tech company.

One person disrupted politics, Trump. One person disrupted recorded music consumption, Daniel Ek, but we're continually told the individual doesn't matter, and if you don't fall into line you're done.

This is untrue.


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