1
It was my generation.
And I'm not quite sure how I feel about that.
It's not like the old days, there's so much activity in the mountains in the summer you'd almost think you were living in the city. Subsidized performing arts centers, name talent, and a ton of semi or non-talent, you open the "Vail Daily" and there's an endless list.
And there's a free concert series in Beaver Creek every week, Andy said he went to see Asia there, without one original member.
Richie Furay is the genuine article. With a pedigree. The only guy with that high a profile who didn't break through to stardom. You had Stephen Stills and Neil Young and Jim Messina in Buffalo Springfield. The Eagles expanded on that sound. Furay ultimately teamed with Chris Hillman and J.D. Souther in the ill-fated Souther-Hillman-Furay Band, but the act broke up because Richie's wife told him it was either her or the band, and Richie chose her. The scuttlebutt was that it was J.D. who broke up the act, but Richie told me he was checked out during the recording of the act's aptly-named second LP, "Trouble In Paradise," which was released with a whimper.
But that first Souther-Hillman-Furay Band album, I played the sh*t out of it. I recorded it for a cross-country drive. I remember this fisherman singing "Border Town" as he skied the bumps at Alta, I was stunned he knew it, I thought it was more of a secret, then again, the album did go gold.
And in the middle, of course, there was Poco. Richie's band that never lived up to its rep commercially until he left.
And there you have it. Rock history, FROM FIFTY YEARS AGO!
That's right, Richie Furay is eighty. Doesn't look it, but the stunning thing is he still has his voice. And he played acoustically with his daughter on backup vocals and a young guitarist and the harmonies...were better than Crosby, Stills & Nash's ever were. Oh, those albums were sweet, but live, at Woodstock, on "4 Way Street," I thought it was nearly impossible to get three part harmony right live until I saw Yes, which wasn't known for harmony, but nailed it nonetheless.
I mean all these years later, Richie still has it.
But it is all these years later.
Now the thing about these free shows, on the ice rink in the village of Beaver Creek, is people get there early, to set up chairs, to be close.
And they were all of my vintage.
And they knew who Richie Furay was.
I saw a woman dancing and singing to the heavens along with "A Good Feelin' to Know" and that's when I realized, they'd lived through the era just like me, when music was everything, when of course you knew the hits, but also the music of the quality acts you heard occasionally on FM, but never on AM.
The initial Poco album is a classic, "Pickin' Up the Pieces," which got great reviews when it came out but was dwarfed by Crosby, Stills & Nash. There was a trade, Epic got Richie and Atlantic got Crosby and Nash and...Furay believes if Poco had been on Atlantic things would have worked out differently. Then again, Leslie West believed if his manager didn't nix his appearance in the Woodstock movie, he would have become legendary. And the truth is Mountain was pretty big in its era, but now the band is almost completely forgotten, I don't hear about young people streaming Mountain songs.
And I don't hear about them streaming Poco songs either.
2
I initially stopped after "From the Inside." It was clear, the band was never going to break through. I was stunned when it ultimately did, when it moved over to ABC from Epic, but by then Rusty Young was a lead vocalist, which was unfathomable to early fans of the band. And I love "Heart of the Night," and "Crazy Love" is a staple, but no one ever talks about the opening track on the first ABC album "Head Over Heels," entitled "Keep On Tryin'," composed and sung by Timothy B. Schmit with a voice so pure so airy so right sans commercial success it's no wonder Timothy B. ultimately decamped for the Eagles.
So back in '65, after a Vermont washout over Christmas, my parents took us to the Concord, where no snow would not nix a good time. I skied three of the four days, the fourth it rained, and one of the perks of the hotel, other than endless food, was nightclub entertainment, and the star was Neil Sedaka, who was by this time a has-been. We had no idea who he was. We were all Beatlemaniacs. This was my first exposure to someone touring after their prime. It was kind of creepy, then again, who would have expected that Sedaka would have a comeback in the seventies!
At the time of that show, Sedaka was twenty five. Over the hill.
And there were all the acts my parents talked about, that they went to see in NYC. They took us to see Ella Fitzgerald... All these acts on late night TV we'd never heard of, which unlike Neil Sedaka, never came back.
And in the eighties, there started to be the comedy circuit in Florida. Aged acts playing to aged fans. Maybe it started earlier, but that's when I heard about it.
Sad.
But I was young.
And now, the acts that aren't dead are still out there, playing to us.
Mostly retired. All about lifestyle. Not in the mainstream and not concerned about it. After all, it's been half a century, more.
But all that music of my parents' generation, it was disposable. Sure, not Sinatra, some of the big bands, but really, it was music of the time, there's always popular music, but that's different from...
The British Invasion.
The San Francisco Sound.
Singer-songwriters.
Prog rock.
Bob Dylan, the Beatles, the Stones...
Our acts were icons. Untouchable. We played their records in our bedrooms, in our dorm rooms, you went to the gig on a regular basis, it was a religious experience, all about the music, no one shot selfies and many of the venues did not sell beer, although that did not mean we were not high.
Musicians were the new baseball stars. But with brains. We idolized them. We listened to what they had to say. They were beacons in a tumultuous era.
But then it became all about the money, music once again slid back into entertainment as opposed to art.
Which leaves us with our memories.
3
"Kind Woman." Do you know that one? If you were more than a casual fan, you do.
And the aforementioned "A Good Feelin' to Know" resonated with me for the first time ever.
I was a Poco fan, but when Epic sent me the two CD "Forgotten Trail (1969-74)" package in 1990 I became a devotee, long after the band's status had been set in stone, listening to the music with no context, context was created, it was a really good band. Actually, I recommend two two CD compilations, this Poco one and "Free - Molten Gold: The Anthology." You'll be stunned how good Paul Kossoff was. Free was much more than "All Right Now," never mind featuring possibly the greatest rock singer of all time, Paul Rodgers.
Richie was not a nobody. Like failed singer-songwriters singing down in Florida, at the Villages, other retirement communities, this guy was right up front and center when we were all paying attention. And he's just as good.
Not that you know all the material. The solo stuff...
And Richie got deep into Jesus, and if that bugs you, you're going to wince when he goes on about God during the set.
But I stood up to take a look. The first two-thirds of the space were all people my age, there were no youngsters up front, only in the back.
Now nobody likes a deal like a retiree. Especially free.
And the set started at 5:30. You could call it an Early Bird Special.
This is what it's come to.
But even after waiting for half an hour for the crowd to thin out to say hi to Richie, people were still lined up to talk to him, to buy merch, to get a photo, to get an autograph. These are the same people who won't go to the grocery store during rush hour, whose line up days are through, even though they lined up for tickets way back when.
And I look as old as they do. I'm no different from them. I couldn't square it, made me want to go back to L.A. and sit in the Forum, go to a theatre show, hang with the insiders, anything but this.
It's just like my parents' generation. We had our acts, they meant so much to us and they won't mean much to anybody after we're gone. Most of rock history, kaput!
And the funny thing is most of rock history is now being written by people who weren't there in the first place, in some cases not even born. Not only do they often get the facts wrong, the nuances they miss completely. They rely on the charts from an era where Top Forty meant nothing and some of the best acts were rarely heard on the radio.
And if you try to tell anybody younger how it used to be different, they laugh and say it's the same as it ever was. Then again, if that's so, why is there such hoopla over the re-release of "Stop Making Sense"?
This ain't no party, this ain't no disco, many are past being able to fool around.
You had to go to the Mudd Club, CBGB's, being home was death, it all happened outside, at the club, whereas today the entertainment at home is nearly always superior to that outside.
It's fading away. It's on its last gasp. Do you embrace it or stand up and protest like the Nazi in "The Producers," telling everybody they don't understand how it was, what it meant.
I don't know.
--
Visit the archive: http://lefsetz.com/wordpress/
--
Listen to the podcast:
-iHeart: https://ihr.fm/2Gi5PFj
-Apple: https://apple.co/2ndmpvp
--
http://www.twitter.com/lefsetz
--
If you would like to subscribe to the LefsetzLetter,
http://www.lefsetz.com/lists/?p=subscribe&id=1
If you do not want to receive any more LefsetzLetters, http://lefsetz.com/lists/?p=unsubscribe&uid=0eecea7b60b461717065cbde887c8e25
To change your email address http://lefsetz.com/lists/?p=preferences&uid=0eecea7b60b461717065cbde887c8e25
Saturday 3 August 2024
Long Island Compromise
https://rb.gy/tkiln8
I didn't realize Taffy Brodesser-Akner was writing the Great American Novel until about halfway through.
Before that, I was reading in fits and starts.
I thought it was an out of control comic novel, until I realized it was not. And then I was driven to finish it.
You won't have the same experience I did unless you've already read "Long Island Compromise" or stop here, because I'm going to break my rule, I'm going to tell you what it's about.
A multi-generational Jewish family. From nothing to success and then...
Yes, Zelig immigrates from the old country, starts a styrofoam factory and everybody gets rich. But what happens to the subsequent generations? What's it like to grow up rich, to never have to worry about money, how does it affect you?
This is a very Jewish novel. Not that non-Jews cannot enjoy it, but if you're a Jewish Boomer or Gen-X'er you're going to identify. This is your life.
Although the focus is on the Fletchers, there's the families that struggle, a household driven by an intellectual. Is money everything, is it the defining characteristic of society?
If you grew up in the Jewish suburbs of the fifties, sixties and seventies...everybody knew each other, from the synagogue, from the Jewish Community Center, from camp. It was very different from today. On some level I envy my parents, they had an incredible social life, nobody I know has the equivalent today. And there was a constant run of gossip about everybody, from parents to children. We knew everybody's wealth, how well they did in school, who they were dating. It was nearly incestuous.
They used to make movies about this. About the country club, about the small society that was everything to its members.
Who drove a Cadillac, what neighborhood your house was in, where you went to college, these were bedrock, and it's almost like the rest of the world didn't exist.
And we, the progeny of our parents who'd succeeded, had opportunity, we were allowed to live our dream, even though most ultimately punted, many ultimately living the same life in the same neighborhood as their parents. I had no intention of staying, I couldn't wait to get away. But in retrospect, I was the outlier.
So the father busts his balls to earn a living so...you don't have to focus on money, you're not struggling. Many of my contemporaries are not doing as well financially as their parents, because they just don't have that hunger, that drive. Their best lives were led when they were living at home, going on trips, to restaurants, living it up in retrospect. It took money, and there was enough, but this was also when there was a strong middle class, when mothers didn't have to work unless they wanted to.
But the successful... There were choices buried in the past. As my father said, "Schnooks get sh*t on." This is one of the reasons people hate the Jews, because they're loud, they test the limits, they won't take no for an answer. Why don't they just shut up and wait their turn like the rest of us?
Well, having been excluded from so many opportunities, jobs, clubs, the Jews had to find their own way to survive. And many of the goyim don't like it.
Is every Jew rich? Far from it. But I've never been to a quiet dinner with Jews, it's like the dinner table in "Radio Days," everybody talking over each other.
So...
With opportunity, what do you do?
Well, there's always one who ends up running the family business.
And then one who gets into drugs and alcohol and tests the limits.
And another one who does their best to hide their wealth, they're ashamed of it.
Once again, the Fletchers are rich. How do people treat them?
Beamer is charismatic, a star from the outside, but crippled on the inside.
Nathan is afraid of the world.
And Jenny, the baby, the only girl, wants almost nothing to do with the family. She keeps going to school, but has no friends, because she can't accept that people are plain, like the ones she grew up with in Middle Rock, on Long Island. Ultimately she realizes friends are everything, is it too late? Has she been such a dilettante, wearing blinders, that she's missed her whole life?
I know people like this. Who don't have to work. They're lost. In many cases even if they have a job. They've had advantages, believe they're above the hoi polloi, but don't really fit in, to the degree they even want to try. They're ultimately lost souls, living on the last vestiges of the money, assets sold to keep up their lifestyle, and then a new hungry generation takes over.
"Long Island Compromise" is not the easiest book to read. Not because the words are big, but because there's a lot of interior dialogue, nearing stream of consciousness. The book is broken down by character, and each one is gone into in extreme depth. And each has their own personality, which they're hobbled by...aren't we all?
"Long Island Compromise" is one of the best-reviewed books of the year, the number one best-seller in the "Los Angeles Times" last week. All of which is why I read it. I was thrilled to get it so soon from the library, but as I waded in...I truly wondered whether I could finish. At first it verged on a beach read. And then it seemed like humor took precedence. But as I got deeper into the characters, one by one, the book came alive.
"Long Island Compromise" is not a slam dunk. You're on your own here. It's not as breezy as early Philip Roth, yet not as dense as Roth's later works. I could recommend many other books if you only read novels occasionally. But if you're Jewish, if you're willing to look at yourself...
Ultimately, "Long Island Compromise" is in Franzen territory, but without the fog of heaviness in his books. Actually, I'd rather read "Long Island Compromise" than all but the last Franzen, "Crossroads," which is great in case you gave up on him, but the lightness of "Long Island Compromise" is absent.
I don't know... I usually only feature recommended stuff, or stuff everybody is talking about, but Taffy Brodesser-Akner captured an essence of my life, which I wasn't prepared for, her previous novel, "Fleischman Is in Trouble," did not attempt to chew off as much, and I didn't love it.
And she came up via journalism, as opposed to the Iowa Writers' Workship. How high should one's expectations be?
I was caught off guard, I was ultimately enraptured, "Long Island Compromise" took me away from my everyday life while ironically evoking it.
I just had to write about it.
--
Visit the archive: http://lefsetz.com/wordpress/
--
Listen to the podcast:
-iHeart: https://ihr.fm/2Gi5PFj
-Apple: https://apple.co/2ndmpvp
--
http://www.twitter.com/lefsetz
--
If you would like to subscribe to the LefsetzLetter,
http://www.lefsetz.com/lists/?p=subscribe&id=1
If you do not want to receive any more LefsetzLetters, http://lefsetz.com/lists/?p=unsubscribe&uid=0eecea7b60b461717065cbde887c8e25
To change your email address http://lefsetz.com/lists/?p=preferences&uid=0eecea7b60b461717065cbde887c8e25
I didn't realize Taffy Brodesser-Akner was writing the Great American Novel until about halfway through.
Before that, I was reading in fits and starts.
I thought it was an out of control comic novel, until I realized it was not. And then I was driven to finish it.
You won't have the same experience I did unless you've already read "Long Island Compromise" or stop here, because I'm going to break my rule, I'm going to tell you what it's about.
A multi-generational Jewish family. From nothing to success and then...
Yes, Zelig immigrates from the old country, starts a styrofoam factory and everybody gets rich. But what happens to the subsequent generations? What's it like to grow up rich, to never have to worry about money, how does it affect you?
This is a very Jewish novel. Not that non-Jews cannot enjoy it, but if you're a Jewish Boomer or Gen-X'er you're going to identify. This is your life.
Although the focus is on the Fletchers, there's the families that struggle, a household driven by an intellectual. Is money everything, is it the defining characteristic of society?
If you grew up in the Jewish suburbs of the fifties, sixties and seventies...everybody knew each other, from the synagogue, from the Jewish Community Center, from camp. It was very different from today. On some level I envy my parents, they had an incredible social life, nobody I know has the equivalent today. And there was a constant run of gossip about everybody, from parents to children. We knew everybody's wealth, how well they did in school, who they were dating. It was nearly incestuous.
They used to make movies about this. About the country club, about the small society that was everything to its members.
Who drove a Cadillac, what neighborhood your house was in, where you went to college, these were bedrock, and it's almost like the rest of the world didn't exist.
And we, the progeny of our parents who'd succeeded, had opportunity, we were allowed to live our dream, even though most ultimately punted, many ultimately living the same life in the same neighborhood as their parents. I had no intention of staying, I couldn't wait to get away. But in retrospect, I was the outlier.
So the father busts his balls to earn a living so...you don't have to focus on money, you're not struggling. Many of my contemporaries are not doing as well financially as their parents, because they just don't have that hunger, that drive. Their best lives were led when they were living at home, going on trips, to restaurants, living it up in retrospect. It took money, and there was enough, but this was also when there was a strong middle class, when mothers didn't have to work unless they wanted to.
But the successful... There were choices buried in the past. As my father said, "Schnooks get sh*t on." This is one of the reasons people hate the Jews, because they're loud, they test the limits, they won't take no for an answer. Why don't they just shut up and wait their turn like the rest of us?
Well, having been excluded from so many opportunities, jobs, clubs, the Jews had to find their own way to survive. And many of the goyim don't like it.
Is every Jew rich? Far from it. But I've never been to a quiet dinner with Jews, it's like the dinner table in "Radio Days," everybody talking over each other.
So...
With opportunity, what do you do?
Well, there's always one who ends up running the family business.
And then one who gets into drugs and alcohol and tests the limits.
And another one who does their best to hide their wealth, they're ashamed of it.
Once again, the Fletchers are rich. How do people treat them?
Beamer is charismatic, a star from the outside, but crippled on the inside.
Nathan is afraid of the world.
And Jenny, the baby, the only girl, wants almost nothing to do with the family. She keeps going to school, but has no friends, because she can't accept that people are plain, like the ones she grew up with in Middle Rock, on Long Island. Ultimately she realizes friends are everything, is it too late? Has she been such a dilettante, wearing blinders, that she's missed her whole life?
I know people like this. Who don't have to work. They're lost. In many cases even if they have a job. They've had advantages, believe they're above the hoi polloi, but don't really fit in, to the degree they even want to try. They're ultimately lost souls, living on the last vestiges of the money, assets sold to keep up their lifestyle, and then a new hungry generation takes over.
"Long Island Compromise" is not the easiest book to read. Not because the words are big, but because there's a lot of interior dialogue, nearing stream of consciousness. The book is broken down by character, and each one is gone into in extreme depth. And each has their own personality, which they're hobbled by...aren't we all?
"Long Island Compromise" is one of the best-reviewed books of the year, the number one best-seller in the "Los Angeles Times" last week. All of which is why I read it. I was thrilled to get it so soon from the library, but as I waded in...I truly wondered whether I could finish. At first it verged on a beach read. And then it seemed like humor took precedence. But as I got deeper into the characters, one by one, the book came alive.
"Long Island Compromise" is not a slam dunk. You're on your own here. It's not as breezy as early Philip Roth, yet not as dense as Roth's later works. I could recommend many other books if you only read novels occasionally. But if you're Jewish, if you're willing to look at yourself...
Ultimately, "Long Island Compromise" is in Franzen territory, but without the fog of heaviness in his books. Actually, I'd rather read "Long Island Compromise" than all but the last Franzen, "Crossroads," which is great in case you gave up on him, but the lightness of "Long Island Compromise" is absent.
I don't know... I usually only feature recommended stuff, or stuff everybody is talking about, but Taffy Brodesser-Akner captured an essence of my life, which I wasn't prepared for, her previous novel, "Fleischman Is in Trouble," did not attempt to chew off as much, and I didn't love it.
And she came up via journalism, as opposed to the Iowa Writers' Workship. How high should one's expectations be?
I was caught off guard, I was ultimately enraptured, "Long Island Compromise" took me away from my everyday life while ironically evoking it.
I just had to write about it.
--
Visit the archive: http://lefsetz.com/wordpress/
--
Listen to the podcast:
-iHeart: https://ihr.fm/2Gi5PFj
-Apple: https://apple.co/2ndmpvp
--
http://www.twitter.com/lefsetz
--
If you would like to subscribe to the LefsetzLetter,
http://www.lefsetz.com/lists/?p=subscribe&id=1
If you do not want to receive any more LefsetzLetters, http://lefsetz.com/lists/?p=unsubscribe&uid=0eecea7b60b461717065cbde887c8e25
To change your email address http://lefsetz.com/lists/?p=preferences&uid=0eecea7b60b461717065cbde887c8e25
Friday 2 August 2024
Music And Politics-SiriusXM This Week
Tune in Saturday August 3rd to Faction Talk, channel 103, at 4 PM East, 1 PM West.
Phone #: 844-686-5863
Twitter: @lefsetz
If you miss the episode, you can hear it on demand on the SiriusXM app. Search: Lefsetz
--
Visit the archive: http://lefsetz.com/wordpress/
--
Listen to the podcast:
-iHeart: https://ihr.fm/2Gi5PFj
-Apple: https://apple.co/2ndmpvp
--
http://www.twitter.com/lefsetz
--
If you would like to subscribe to the LefsetzLetter,
http://www.lefsetz.com/lists/?p=subscribe&id=1
If you do not want to receive any more LefsetzLetters, http://lefsetz.com/lists/?p=unsubscribe&uid=0eecea7b60b461717065cbde887c8e25
To change your email address http://lefsetz.com/lists/?p=preferences&uid=0eecea7b60b461717065cbde887c8e25
Phone #: 844-686-5863
Twitter: @lefsetz
If you miss the episode, you can hear it on demand on the SiriusXM app. Search: Lefsetz
--
Visit the archive: http://lefsetz.com/wordpress/
--
Listen to the podcast:
-iHeart: https://ihr.fm/2Gi5PFj
-Apple: https://apple.co/2ndmpvp
--
http://www.twitter.com/lefsetz
--
If you would like to subscribe to the LefsetzLetter,
http://www.lefsetz.com/lists/?p=subscribe&id=1
If you do not want to receive any more LefsetzLetters, http://lefsetz.com/lists/?p=unsubscribe&uid=0eecea7b60b461717065cbde887c8e25
To change your email address http://lefsetz.com/lists/?p=preferences&uid=0eecea7b60b461717065cbde887c8e25
The Kamala Surge
That's how much people hated that Biden was the candidate.
James Carville, Ezra Klein and the "Washington Post" wanted a mini-primary, a vetting of the Democratic candidates. But the truth is literally one minute after being told by Biden that he was dropping out, Kamala called her all potential opponents and asked for their endorsement. Just that fast. Sewing up the nomination for herself. Got to give her credit for that, even though I was not of the belief she would be the best candidate, but now she is.
Just a couple of weeks ago, Trump's victory was a fait accompli. I mean the man took a bullet! Now that's in the rearview mirror and seemingly has no effect. We now live in internet time, which is very fast, laden with a zillion events, you may peak today, but tomorrow you may be history. In any vertical you must build to last, momentary success doesn't yield long term success, where all the profits lie.
So now there is a huge surge of excitement for Kamala, to a degree I've never seen in my lifetime. It far eclipses the Eugene McCarthy surge of '68. Then again, the enemy was Nixon, not the fall of democracy.
Did you see that that was Biden's sole campaign strategy, to point out the negatives of Trump? You can't win without talking about the future, which Kamala is doing with her "freedom" campaign.
And Trump is too stupid to know that debating Harris is his only way out of this mess. Right now, Kamala is giving scripted speeches in a bubble. All vetted, playing to acolytes. There's nothing wrong with that, it's just that those who remember her from 2016 know that she came across poorly in the debates. If Trump were smart, he'd roll the dice and have a debate and hope that Harris made a mistake, revealed negatives, but the Donald is running scared.
If Trump was smart, and he's not, and it's only Trump, he's running the Republican Party, he'd kick Vance off the ticket and nominate a moderate with experience. Why not? It was his choice. We're living in a new era. Vance is a liability. But to axe him would show a flaw, and Trump believes he's invulnerable.
But the Democrats must realize they cannot win by painting Trump as the doofus he is. That is not a winning strategy. But the best thing about Trump is he's self-immolating. Just give the man a mic and he blows himself up, and it's laughable.
So how long will the Kamala excitement last? Traditionally, not very long. But we're in uncharted territory. People now have a champion, they see the way out, and they're excited about that. It's like a football team that's down and suddenly scores a couple of touchdowns, the fans are excited until the final whistle, whereas the previous leaders and their fans are demoralized, how did they blow this lead?
Furthermore, contrary to insiders' predictions, the lack of vetting has helped Harris. By not having to duke it out in primaries, most people are unaware of her flaws. In truth, most people don't know much about Harris, Trump said he only recently realized she was BLACK!
That's how out of touch Donald is. Just like the Democratic Party that tried to convince us Joe was up to another term. Have you seen him on camera recently? He seems a step away from the old folks home.
But even more interesting is how Biden was instantly forgotten. We debated his candidacy for over a year, it was front page news, and then he exits and it's like he was never in the race. That's the modern paradigm. You're here until you're gone, and then you're in the rearview mirror, discarded.
To tell you the truth, the less people see Kamala the better. Not because she's Kamala, but because her candidacy is now bigger than her, it's democracy versus potential fascism, it's dirty old man versus modern woman, it's us versus them and finally we're winning!
The "Washington Post" still has Harris behind in the electoral college, in the toss-up states. But speaking of toss-up, Nate Silver says the election now is one.
What Democrats have to realize is... Many people voting for Trump hate the man. But they want fewer regulations, fewer taxes, fewer takers, defeat of the woke and the support of Israel...the list goes on and on. How many of these people can be brought to Harris's side?
I'm not sure any can.
But these elections are decided by a small margin. Getting out the vote is key.
Then again, if you're Black and you're in one of the toss-up states... Odds are you're going to stand in line for hours to cast your vote while whites walk right in.
This is the Supreme Court that got rid of the Voting Rights Act, saying there was no racism anymore. Yeah, and no antisemitism either...
The Republicans have done their best to stack the game against the Democrats. But just because the game doesn't favor you, that does not mean you cannot win.
Trump is worse off for not being vetted. By staying out of the debates he not only didn't hone his chops, didn't get to adjust his presentation, he came across as imperial, a deserving king, but the man is all flash and no substance, and doesn't seem to know it.
And Elon Musk's X/Twitter, under the rubric of absolute freedom of speech, shut down the account of White Dudes for Harris. Musk himself is on the run, did you read the exposé in the "Wall Street Journal" on Tesla's self-driving capability? Turns out it's massively flawed, because Musk insisted on cameras only, excluding lidar, trying to save money, and crashes keep happening. And now the "Journal" is doubling-down, questioning the future of Tesla robotaxis, upon which the entire company's value is based. Don't forget that the "Journal" single-handedly brought down Theranos. And the Elizabeth Holmes company even hired David Boies to intimidate reporting, and that didn't work.
A house of cards I tell you.
How could the Democratic Party get it so wrong? How could it not see what the average citizen did?
Which begs the question what industries are blind as to the needs of their customers. Does the American public really want the tripe the major record companies are purveying? The movie studios are completely lost. The only thing that seems to consistently work is reboots and sequels but fewer of them than ever before succeed. The lifeblood of the movies is innovation, that's what brings the audience to the theatre, but it's scarce, because the brass is afraid.
This Kamala surge is a phenomenon.
But please don't mistake the excitement for ultimate victory. It's a long way until November. Just like Trump's wound is now a footnote, Harris could screw up or the public could move on...
People love to support a winner. And right now, that's what Harris appears to be.
As even the Republican Party sees Trump as a loser. The news is filled with his faux pas, criticism from the old school. They're coming out of the woodwork, Sununu in the "Times," telling Trump to cool it, but he never does, he's like a spinning top, out of control, listening to no one.
And tone-deaf to boot.
And another Republican told Trump to stop trotting out B-list celebrities, when the Democrats have all the A-players.
It's an amazing movie to watch. The script has been flipped, now Trump is the old guy one step from the graveyard, a man who has lost a step.
We're never going to heal the nation. Not as long as we have two different news systems, if not more, not as long as the public is uneducated with no power of analysis. Now is the time to carry the ball to the goal line.
But the momentum can shift just that easily. As Carville said, be ready for the Harris attacks, hell, if you're on X/Twitter, the site is flooded with them already.
It's not going to be easy, but it's doable.
All because losing Joe Biden dropped out.
--
Visit the archive: http://lefsetz.com/wordpress/
--
Listen to the podcast:
-iHeart: https://ihr.fm/2Gi5PFj
-Apple: https://apple.co/2ndmpvp
--
http://www.twitter.com/lefsetz
--
If you would like to subscribe to the LefsetzLetter,
http://www.lefsetz.com/lists/?p=subscribe&id=1
If you do not want to receive any more LefsetzLetters, http://lefsetz.com/lists/?p=unsubscribe&uid=0eecea7b60b461717065cbde887c8e25
To change your email address http://lefsetz.com/lists/?p=preferences&uid=0eecea7b60b461717065cbde887c8e25
James Carville, Ezra Klein and the "Washington Post" wanted a mini-primary, a vetting of the Democratic candidates. But the truth is literally one minute after being told by Biden that he was dropping out, Kamala called her all potential opponents and asked for their endorsement. Just that fast. Sewing up the nomination for herself. Got to give her credit for that, even though I was not of the belief she would be the best candidate, but now she is.
Just a couple of weeks ago, Trump's victory was a fait accompli. I mean the man took a bullet! Now that's in the rearview mirror and seemingly has no effect. We now live in internet time, which is very fast, laden with a zillion events, you may peak today, but tomorrow you may be history. In any vertical you must build to last, momentary success doesn't yield long term success, where all the profits lie.
So now there is a huge surge of excitement for Kamala, to a degree I've never seen in my lifetime. It far eclipses the Eugene McCarthy surge of '68. Then again, the enemy was Nixon, not the fall of democracy.
Did you see that that was Biden's sole campaign strategy, to point out the negatives of Trump? You can't win without talking about the future, which Kamala is doing with her "freedom" campaign.
And Trump is too stupid to know that debating Harris is his only way out of this mess. Right now, Kamala is giving scripted speeches in a bubble. All vetted, playing to acolytes. There's nothing wrong with that, it's just that those who remember her from 2016 know that she came across poorly in the debates. If Trump were smart, he'd roll the dice and have a debate and hope that Harris made a mistake, revealed negatives, but the Donald is running scared.
If Trump was smart, and he's not, and it's only Trump, he's running the Republican Party, he'd kick Vance off the ticket and nominate a moderate with experience. Why not? It was his choice. We're living in a new era. Vance is a liability. But to axe him would show a flaw, and Trump believes he's invulnerable.
But the Democrats must realize they cannot win by painting Trump as the doofus he is. That is not a winning strategy. But the best thing about Trump is he's self-immolating. Just give the man a mic and he blows himself up, and it's laughable.
So how long will the Kamala excitement last? Traditionally, not very long. But we're in uncharted territory. People now have a champion, they see the way out, and they're excited about that. It's like a football team that's down and suddenly scores a couple of touchdowns, the fans are excited until the final whistle, whereas the previous leaders and their fans are demoralized, how did they blow this lead?
Furthermore, contrary to insiders' predictions, the lack of vetting has helped Harris. By not having to duke it out in primaries, most people are unaware of her flaws. In truth, most people don't know much about Harris, Trump said he only recently realized she was BLACK!
That's how out of touch Donald is. Just like the Democratic Party that tried to convince us Joe was up to another term. Have you seen him on camera recently? He seems a step away from the old folks home.
But even more interesting is how Biden was instantly forgotten. We debated his candidacy for over a year, it was front page news, and then he exits and it's like he was never in the race. That's the modern paradigm. You're here until you're gone, and then you're in the rearview mirror, discarded.
To tell you the truth, the less people see Kamala the better. Not because she's Kamala, but because her candidacy is now bigger than her, it's democracy versus potential fascism, it's dirty old man versus modern woman, it's us versus them and finally we're winning!
The "Washington Post" still has Harris behind in the electoral college, in the toss-up states. But speaking of toss-up, Nate Silver says the election now is one.
What Democrats have to realize is... Many people voting for Trump hate the man. But they want fewer regulations, fewer taxes, fewer takers, defeat of the woke and the support of Israel...the list goes on and on. How many of these people can be brought to Harris's side?
I'm not sure any can.
But these elections are decided by a small margin. Getting out the vote is key.
Then again, if you're Black and you're in one of the toss-up states... Odds are you're going to stand in line for hours to cast your vote while whites walk right in.
This is the Supreme Court that got rid of the Voting Rights Act, saying there was no racism anymore. Yeah, and no antisemitism either...
The Republicans have done their best to stack the game against the Democrats. But just because the game doesn't favor you, that does not mean you cannot win.
Trump is worse off for not being vetted. By staying out of the debates he not only didn't hone his chops, didn't get to adjust his presentation, he came across as imperial, a deserving king, but the man is all flash and no substance, and doesn't seem to know it.
And Elon Musk's X/Twitter, under the rubric of absolute freedom of speech, shut down the account of White Dudes for Harris. Musk himself is on the run, did you read the exposé in the "Wall Street Journal" on Tesla's self-driving capability? Turns out it's massively flawed, because Musk insisted on cameras only, excluding lidar, trying to save money, and crashes keep happening. And now the "Journal" is doubling-down, questioning the future of Tesla robotaxis, upon which the entire company's value is based. Don't forget that the "Journal" single-handedly brought down Theranos. And the Elizabeth Holmes company even hired David Boies to intimidate reporting, and that didn't work.
A house of cards I tell you.
How could the Democratic Party get it so wrong? How could it not see what the average citizen did?
Which begs the question what industries are blind as to the needs of their customers. Does the American public really want the tripe the major record companies are purveying? The movie studios are completely lost. The only thing that seems to consistently work is reboots and sequels but fewer of them than ever before succeed. The lifeblood of the movies is innovation, that's what brings the audience to the theatre, but it's scarce, because the brass is afraid.
This Kamala surge is a phenomenon.
But please don't mistake the excitement for ultimate victory. It's a long way until November. Just like Trump's wound is now a footnote, Harris could screw up or the public could move on...
People love to support a winner. And right now, that's what Harris appears to be.
As even the Republican Party sees Trump as a loser. The news is filled with his faux pas, criticism from the old school. They're coming out of the woodwork, Sununu in the "Times," telling Trump to cool it, but he never does, he's like a spinning top, out of control, listening to no one.
And tone-deaf to boot.
And another Republican told Trump to stop trotting out B-list celebrities, when the Democrats have all the A-players.
It's an amazing movie to watch. The script has been flipped, now Trump is the old guy one step from the graveyard, a man who has lost a step.
We're never going to heal the nation. Not as long as we have two different news systems, if not more, not as long as the public is uneducated with no power of analysis. Now is the time to carry the ball to the goal line.
But the momentum can shift just that easily. As Carville said, be ready for the Harris attacks, hell, if you're on X/Twitter, the site is flooded with them already.
It's not going to be easy, but it's doable.
All because losing Joe Biden dropped out.
--
Visit the archive: http://lefsetz.com/wordpress/
--
Listen to the podcast:
-iHeart: https://ihr.fm/2Gi5PFj
-Apple: https://apple.co/2ndmpvp
--
http://www.twitter.com/lefsetz
--
If you would like to subscribe to the LefsetzLetter,
http://www.lefsetz.com/lists/?p=subscribe&id=1
If you do not want to receive any more LefsetzLetters, http://lefsetz.com/lists/?p=unsubscribe&uid=0eecea7b60b461717065cbde887c8e25
To change your email address http://lefsetz.com/lists/?p=preferences&uid=0eecea7b60b461717065cbde887c8e25
Grainge/Atlantic
The optics are bad.
Does the son of the founder of Amazon run Microsoft? They are competing on cloud computing. There are really only three major players in that sphere, just like the record companies.
Then again, although not mature, cloud computing is simple compared to breaking acts. Then again, how influential are record companies these days anyway?
So there are two parts of breaking an act. Signing and then marketing. Used to be it was about scouring the world to find unknown acts to develop. Now, everybody is aware of the talent available, and it's about signing said acts. And the major labels sign fewer acts than ever before, certainly compared to the overall marketplace.
Has Elliott Grainge earned this position? A more important question is whether Robert Kyncl knows what he's doing. The history of the record business is outsiders wreaking havoc, whether it be Bob Morgado or Andy Lack, the former who got power-hungry and destroyed the Warner Music Group and the latter who came from news and was involved in the rootkit scandal and... You remember Ahmet Ertegun, Mo Ostin, you only have to refer to them by their first names, but those two clowns?
Kyncl comes from visual entertainment. What has that got to do with records? Other than telling labels they should take less for YouTube play of their videos, nothing.
So will Elliott Grainge stop discussing business with his dad?
Talk about incestuous... Used to be label heads gave their progeny gigs in their own companies, they didn't get to run competitors.
In all, this elevation of Grainge is not a triumph, it reveals the record industry to be the retro enterprise it's become. Once again, fewer acts are signed, almost none are broken, and everything happens on the road. We keep hearing Lucian Grainge is the most important and powerful person in the music business, but everybody knows it's really Michael Rapino. If for no other reason than Rapino PAYS THE ACTS!
Get a major record deal and you're giving up most of the action. Which is why so many remain independent these days. All the majors can do is try to blow you up into a superstar. What's their success ratio here? Pretty poor. And it's not based on music so much as data. Create a great record without all the socials and streams and the major is not interested.
Unlike Netflix. Which believes the consumer base is wide, with different interests, and the key is to create more product to satisfy the public at large.
Quick, name the heads of the movie studios? You can't! And I'm telling you, the heads of the major record labels are equivalent. If you're inside, you may know Elliott Grainge, but if you're outside, who gives a damn.
As for the studios trying to get into the streaming space... What a farce. They're overcharging for little product, believing their histories are enough, as if people are aware of which company made which film or TV series. Hell, series that these traditional outfits own don't blow up until they're on Netflix, what does that say?
As for the genres of music the majors market... It's the Spotify Top 50, the acts with the shortest career arcs, who oftentimes can't even sell a ticket.
And rather than address this imbalance, how they no longer control the overall marketplace, we get all this gobbledygook from the majors, about initiatives in fan engagement...all of which has nothing to do with the overall marketplace. If hits were enough, these studio streamers would triumph. Turns out "Star Wars" spinoffs are not enough to get people to sign up for Disney+ and continue to pay every month. Hell, I'm not interested, but I watched every episode of "Baby Reindeer."
Where is the labels' "Baby Reindeer"? Something left field, unexpected, that becomes part of the public discussion, that you watch and don't forget.
If you think Sabrina Carpenter is a great story, you probably eat chocolate bars for dinner.
The real story of the summer is Zach Bryan, the grosses are amazing. And he is signed to Warner, but he'd made headway previously. And what he is selling...is otherwise completely absent from the Spotify Top 50, what the majors are selling.
All this Chappell Roan hype. I'm not as enthusiastic as most, the music doesn't affect me with an iota of the intensity that Bryan's does. And how did she break? By opening for Carpenter live, not all the traditional ways labels used to break acts.
The Big Three focus on terrestrial radio. Quick, does the computing industry still focus on floppy disks?
All we hear in tech is about going forward. The story of the past two years has been AI. Everybody in America has heard of it. And the Sphere is bigger than any act of the past few years. What does that say? That the labels are out of touch!
Do I think Elliott Grainge is in touch, has his finger on the pulse, has the magic formula?
Of course not. He's just another major label wanker with a pedigree. The history of business is outsiders disrupt. Grainge is the ultimate insider, all he's really got going for him is he's young. He's the antithesis of the tech titans, whether it be Zuckerberg or the Instagram guys or...who came out of nowhere, took the tools and made something new.
Yes, the tools. The notes. It's what you do with them. And according to the major labels, you can do very little with them.
How did the Big Three squander pubic consciousness? Used to be music drove the culture. Now it's a sideshow, because what is purveyed is for children with very little lasting value. All the excitement is ginned-up publicity. The music industry is like Joe Biden, telling us he's not too old, and has it under control, and that turned out to be a laugh.
The story of Kamala Harris's success is how much people hated that Joe Biden was the candidate.
And most people hate what the majors sell.
You can go to a gig and hear something new and different that titillates...
As for raw business... Unless you're a superstar, streaming doesn't pay well, if at all. The script has flipped, used to be the tour was the advertisement for the album, now the album is the advertisement for the tour. And that aphorism was coined over a decade ago!
And how did the majors deal with this?
By trying to horn in on the acts' interests, the so-called 360 deals.
Where is the innovation?
Absent.
So you're going to find another act that sounds like the last one, get the brain dead media to hype it and most people are not even paying attention.
Meanwhile, all we get is endless consolidation.
And even this doesn't satiate Wall Street. Universal reported a slowdown in streaming subscriptions and the stock tanked, massively.
Meanwhile, Spotify keeps innovating, with podcasts, audiobooks...sure, it laid off people, but the company is not moribund. Where are all these new ideas at the major record labels? Nowhere to be found. Or de minimis in impact. They're operating like it's the same at is ever was, and nothing could be further from the truth.
Even the people in the business would rather talk streaming television than music. Many have contempt for the audience. They're inured to the lifestyle while professing their adoration of music, they keep telling us it's the same as it ever was, as if Taylor Swift is the Beatles, and she's not.
Grainge signed Ice Spice. I'll give him that. But how much penetration does she really have in the marketplace. This is not Adele, never mind Trippie Redd and 6ix9ine. This is the guy you're putting in charge?
Go for it. Perpetuate the insular old model. See if that works for you.
It hasn't for years. The big story is how the majors can't break an act.
And we're supposed to care about them?
They're in a bubble. In a world where there's no barrier to entry. Without their catalogs, the majors would be moribund.
That's the record industry folks.
What a joke.
--
Visit the archive: http://lefsetz.com/wordpress/
--
Listen to the podcast:
-iHeart: https://ihr.fm/2Gi5PFj
-Apple: https://apple.co/2ndmpvp
--
http://www.twitter.com/lefsetz
--
If you would like to subscribe to the LefsetzLetter,
http://www.lefsetz.com/lists/?p=subscribe&id=1
If you do not want to receive any more LefsetzLetters, http://lefsetz.com/lists/?p=unsubscribe&uid=0eecea7b60b461717065cbde887c8e25
To change your email address http://lefsetz.com/lists/?p=preferences&uid=0eecea7b60b461717065cbde887c8e25
Does the son of the founder of Amazon run Microsoft? They are competing on cloud computing. There are really only three major players in that sphere, just like the record companies.
Then again, although not mature, cloud computing is simple compared to breaking acts. Then again, how influential are record companies these days anyway?
So there are two parts of breaking an act. Signing and then marketing. Used to be it was about scouring the world to find unknown acts to develop. Now, everybody is aware of the talent available, and it's about signing said acts. And the major labels sign fewer acts than ever before, certainly compared to the overall marketplace.
Has Elliott Grainge earned this position? A more important question is whether Robert Kyncl knows what he's doing. The history of the record business is outsiders wreaking havoc, whether it be Bob Morgado or Andy Lack, the former who got power-hungry and destroyed the Warner Music Group and the latter who came from news and was involved in the rootkit scandal and... You remember Ahmet Ertegun, Mo Ostin, you only have to refer to them by their first names, but those two clowns?
Kyncl comes from visual entertainment. What has that got to do with records? Other than telling labels they should take less for YouTube play of their videos, nothing.
So will Elliott Grainge stop discussing business with his dad?
Talk about incestuous... Used to be label heads gave their progeny gigs in their own companies, they didn't get to run competitors.
In all, this elevation of Grainge is not a triumph, it reveals the record industry to be the retro enterprise it's become. Once again, fewer acts are signed, almost none are broken, and everything happens on the road. We keep hearing Lucian Grainge is the most important and powerful person in the music business, but everybody knows it's really Michael Rapino. If for no other reason than Rapino PAYS THE ACTS!
Get a major record deal and you're giving up most of the action. Which is why so many remain independent these days. All the majors can do is try to blow you up into a superstar. What's their success ratio here? Pretty poor. And it's not based on music so much as data. Create a great record without all the socials and streams and the major is not interested.
Unlike Netflix. Which believes the consumer base is wide, with different interests, and the key is to create more product to satisfy the public at large.
Quick, name the heads of the movie studios? You can't! And I'm telling you, the heads of the major record labels are equivalent. If you're inside, you may know Elliott Grainge, but if you're outside, who gives a damn.
As for the studios trying to get into the streaming space... What a farce. They're overcharging for little product, believing their histories are enough, as if people are aware of which company made which film or TV series. Hell, series that these traditional outfits own don't blow up until they're on Netflix, what does that say?
As for the genres of music the majors market... It's the Spotify Top 50, the acts with the shortest career arcs, who oftentimes can't even sell a ticket.
And rather than address this imbalance, how they no longer control the overall marketplace, we get all this gobbledygook from the majors, about initiatives in fan engagement...all of which has nothing to do with the overall marketplace. If hits were enough, these studio streamers would triumph. Turns out "Star Wars" spinoffs are not enough to get people to sign up for Disney+ and continue to pay every month. Hell, I'm not interested, but I watched every episode of "Baby Reindeer."
Where is the labels' "Baby Reindeer"? Something left field, unexpected, that becomes part of the public discussion, that you watch and don't forget.
If you think Sabrina Carpenter is a great story, you probably eat chocolate bars for dinner.
The real story of the summer is Zach Bryan, the grosses are amazing. And he is signed to Warner, but he'd made headway previously. And what he is selling...is otherwise completely absent from the Spotify Top 50, what the majors are selling.
All this Chappell Roan hype. I'm not as enthusiastic as most, the music doesn't affect me with an iota of the intensity that Bryan's does. And how did she break? By opening for Carpenter live, not all the traditional ways labels used to break acts.
The Big Three focus on terrestrial radio. Quick, does the computing industry still focus on floppy disks?
All we hear in tech is about going forward. The story of the past two years has been AI. Everybody in America has heard of it. And the Sphere is bigger than any act of the past few years. What does that say? That the labels are out of touch!
Do I think Elliott Grainge is in touch, has his finger on the pulse, has the magic formula?
Of course not. He's just another major label wanker with a pedigree. The history of business is outsiders disrupt. Grainge is the ultimate insider, all he's really got going for him is he's young. He's the antithesis of the tech titans, whether it be Zuckerberg or the Instagram guys or...who came out of nowhere, took the tools and made something new.
Yes, the tools. The notes. It's what you do with them. And according to the major labels, you can do very little with them.
How did the Big Three squander pubic consciousness? Used to be music drove the culture. Now it's a sideshow, because what is purveyed is for children with very little lasting value. All the excitement is ginned-up publicity. The music industry is like Joe Biden, telling us he's not too old, and has it under control, and that turned out to be a laugh.
The story of Kamala Harris's success is how much people hated that Joe Biden was the candidate.
And most people hate what the majors sell.
You can go to a gig and hear something new and different that titillates...
As for raw business... Unless you're a superstar, streaming doesn't pay well, if at all. The script has flipped, used to be the tour was the advertisement for the album, now the album is the advertisement for the tour. And that aphorism was coined over a decade ago!
And how did the majors deal with this?
By trying to horn in on the acts' interests, the so-called 360 deals.
Where is the innovation?
Absent.
So you're going to find another act that sounds like the last one, get the brain dead media to hype it and most people are not even paying attention.
Meanwhile, all we get is endless consolidation.
And even this doesn't satiate Wall Street. Universal reported a slowdown in streaming subscriptions and the stock tanked, massively.
Meanwhile, Spotify keeps innovating, with podcasts, audiobooks...sure, it laid off people, but the company is not moribund. Where are all these new ideas at the major record labels? Nowhere to be found. Or de minimis in impact. They're operating like it's the same at is ever was, and nothing could be further from the truth.
Even the people in the business would rather talk streaming television than music. Many have contempt for the audience. They're inured to the lifestyle while professing their adoration of music, they keep telling us it's the same as it ever was, as if Taylor Swift is the Beatles, and she's not.
Grainge signed Ice Spice. I'll give him that. But how much penetration does she really have in the marketplace. This is not Adele, never mind Trippie Redd and 6ix9ine. This is the guy you're putting in charge?
Go for it. Perpetuate the insular old model. See if that works for you.
It hasn't for years. The big story is how the majors can't break an act.
And we're supposed to care about them?
They're in a bubble. In a world where there's no barrier to entry. Without their catalogs, the majors would be moribund.
That's the record industry folks.
What a joke.
--
Visit the archive: http://lefsetz.com/wordpress/
--
Listen to the podcast:
-iHeart: https://ihr.fm/2Gi5PFj
-Apple: https://apple.co/2ndmpvp
--
http://www.twitter.com/lefsetz
--
If you would like to subscribe to the LefsetzLetter,
http://www.lefsetz.com/lists/?p=subscribe&id=1
If you do not want to receive any more LefsetzLetters, http://lefsetz.com/lists/?p=unsubscribe&uid=0eecea7b60b461717065cbde887c8e25
To change your email address http://lefsetz.com/lists/?p=preferences&uid=0eecea7b60b461717065cbde887c8e25
Thursday 1 August 2024
Patrick Leonard-This Week's Podcast
Keyboardist/songwriter/producer Patrick Leonard has worked with everybody from Madonna to Elton John to Bryan Ferry to Michael Jackson to Leonard Cohen...the list goes on and on. We cover this history, as well as his love for Jethro Tull, but be absolutely sure to stay until the very end of the podcast wherein Patrick gives his take on today's music. It comes after I say "Till next time..." We talked after the podcast was over and what Patrick said was so interesting I felt you had to hear it.
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/patrick-leonard/id1316200737?i=1000664021302
https://open.spotify.com/episode/03ym02kkndQh9doLOMw3pS?si=wdplMYZVQvW_XuVi2Eyj1g
https://www.iheart.com/podcast/1119-the-bob-lefsetz-podcast-30806836/episode/patrick-leonard-201381668/
https://music.amazon.com/podcasts/9ff4fb19-54d4-41ae-ae7a-8a6f8d3dafa8/episodes/d27f5d86-f673-450e-8e44-1a45df2a3530/the-bob-lefsetz-podcast-patrick-leonard
--
Visit the archive: http://lefsetz.com/wordpress/
--
Listen to the podcast:
-iHeart: https://ihr.fm/2Gi5PFj
-Apple: https://apple.co/2ndmpvp
--
http://www.twitter.com/lefsetz
--
If you would like to subscribe to the LefsetzLetter,
http://www.lefsetz.com/lists/?p=subscribe&id=1
If you do not want to receive any more LefsetzLetters, http://lefsetz.com/lists/?p=unsubscribe&uid=0eecea7b60b461717065cbde887c8e25
To change your email address http://lefsetz.com/lists/?p=preferences&uid=0eecea7b60b461717065cbde887c8e25
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/patrick-leonard/id1316200737?i=1000664021302
https://open.spotify.com/episode/03ym02kkndQh9doLOMw3pS?si=wdplMYZVQvW_XuVi2Eyj1g
https://www.iheart.com/podcast/1119-the-bob-lefsetz-podcast-30806836/episode/patrick-leonard-201381668/
https://music.amazon.com/podcasts/9ff4fb19-54d4-41ae-ae7a-8a6f8d3dafa8/episodes/d27f5d86-f673-450e-8e44-1a45df2a3530/the-bob-lefsetz-podcast-patrick-leonard
--
Visit the archive: http://lefsetz.com/wordpress/
--
Listen to the podcast:
-iHeart: https://ihr.fm/2Gi5PFj
-Apple: https://apple.co/2ndmpvp
--
http://www.twitter.com/lefsetz
--
If you would like to subscribe to the LefsetzLetter,
http://www.lefsetz.com/lists/?p=subscribe&id=1
If you do not want to receive any more LefsetzLetters, http://lefsetz.com/lists/?p=unsubscribe&uid=0eecea7b60b461717065cbde887c8e25
To change your email address http://lefsetz.com/lists/?p=preferences&uid=0eecea7b60b461717065cbde887c8e25
Monday 29 July 2024
The Pool
I had an incident in the Caribbean twenty years ago and I really haven't gone swimming since.
Oh, I've been in people's backyard pools with three year olds. But as far as entering what we used to call an "Olympic-size" pool, with a depth over my head and a distance from one side to another of more than one or two strokes, I don't think so.
You see back in the Islands I went snorkeling. They passed out these little inflatable bags that were supposed to serve as life preservers, and I didn't think twice. But after looking at the fish I turned to go back and I realized I was in a current. Okay, okay. I swam slow and steady, but when I looked up the boat was still far away. Not light years away, but I was alone, in the water, outside of the confines of the United States and I won't say I began to panic, but I did start to get scared. And I'm paddling and paddling and eventually I make it to someone else's boat. Which I pull myself upon. And no one questioned me, and I thought that was weird, but after resting about five minutes it was time to swim back to my boat, which really was pretty close, but I was daunted, and after making it, I don't remember going swimming again.
I grew up swimming. My mother took us to the beach...those are some of my earliest memories. We went to Cape Cod on vacation. I knew how to swim before I even attended Camp JCC at six years old. And I got all the badges and Junior Lifesaving and then Senior Lifesaving...
I even went snorkeling alone in Sharm El-Sheik, when it was briefly part of Israel, when the only abodes were tents, and I was much further from the shore than I was in the Caribbean, and I was diving down into coral reefs and...
There was that time in my late twenties when I would go to the West L.A. YMCA and swim 600 yards a day. I had the Speedo and the goggles.
But you eventually burn out on swimming. It's one of the more boring sports.
And I didn't realize I hadn't been swimming since that time in the Islands until about seven years ago, after I had rotator cuff surgery.
And the more time that went by, the more uptight I became.
I mean how strong was my upper body anyway? I do these exercises with a band every day, but I don't pump iron, I don't like to do any exercise that has no component of fun. And I'm into aerobic, not anerobic. And I used to ride my bike, but there was an incident that was so heavy, that required surgery, that took me more than a decade to get over emotionally.
So I hiked.
And I was out walking today, and it was a beautiful day, and my leg strength is really pretty good, as is my breathing capacity. I've never smoked. I hike in the mountains three to five times a week. I do back exercises and I stretch every day. But swimming is more about the upper body than the lower body. When was I going to get back in the water?
And today I got a hankering. It was just that warm. And I dug deep into a drawer and I found...
The same damn bathing suit that I wore in the Caribbean. It was faded, stretched out, but I put it on and traipsed down to the pool in the Lodge and...
There were two ten year olds in the pool, acting just like I did when I was that age, without a care in the world, believing there was no way they could drown, never mind there being no supervision.
I'll be honest. I was too anxious to dive into the deep end. I know, I know, it's psychological, but still.
So I walked down to the shallow end and I was confronted with the fact that I always dove in, but here it was too shallow.
So holding on to the rail I tippy-toed down and...
The water was cold. Somehow I expected it to be warmer, but I've been through this routine a zillion times. You've got to go in all at once, to acclimatize yourself, soon thereafter it doesn't feel cold at all.
And that's what I did.
And I experienced an unanticipated euphoria. I was connected to who I once was, it felt so good.
But now I had to swim.
No one was watching, there was no test, so I started off with a baby step, I swam the width of the pool. And then again. And again.
And now I started evaluating my stroke. I realized when I was turning my head for air, I was turning too much of my back. So I adjusted.
And then I walked out to the deepest part of the pool I could still stand in and...
Swam to the shallow end.
That was not a problem. But I won't say I was super-confident.
Now it was time to swim into the deep end. I chose a ladder on the side, just shy of the end, for my target. And the one great thing about a pool is you can open your eyes underwater and see where you're going, and I could see the aluminum steps and it was no problem.
And from there, I swam to the ladder across the pool, all the way at the deep end.
These were not huge accomplishments.
But you reach a certain age when...
You wonder if you can still do it.
Most people stop doing it.
And I do certain things. If I die taking chances on the ski slope, I'm fine with that. But every once in a while I wonder... If I fall and get hurt, how fast will I recover? I've been injured, it does happen. But when you get older, it takes a longer time to recover, physically, never mind psychologically.
And now they have via ferratas in the mountains of America. I'd like to do that. But the newer ones are more serious, they require a certain amount of upper body strength, do I have that much?
In my thirties, even forties, I wouldn't have thought twice. I'll be honest, in my fifties too. We once thought of booking a trip to Canada where a heli-skiing operation has a via ferrata in the summer.
But now?
So I was at the deep end of the pool. Now I had to swim the entire length.
I knew I could make it, but I wanted to avoid freak-out, so I stayed within reach of the side.
And there was one moment when I swallowed a little water, but I stayed calm and focused on my technique and soon I was at the other wall.
Now what?
Well, especially when you get older, you have to build your strength up. You don't jump into the pool and do twenty laps without having gone swimming for years.
And to be honest, I could feel muscles I normally don't. Every exercise uses a different set of muscles.
So I didn't see the point in more laps. But I thought if I had easy access to a pool, I could go in every day, build up my stamina. That's who I am. I'm into nailing the routine.
But I don't have regular access to a pool.
So I'm there in the water, alone, wondering what I'm supposed to do.
No more laps were necessary, I'd proven my point.
But was I supposed to just float, or get out, or..?
And then I realized if there was someone else there, I could have stayed in forever. You know, until my skin pruned.
Ultimately, after a few more minutes, I got out. Toweled off and came back to the room.
But I can't wait to go back in tomorrow. This time, with a dive!
--
Visit the archive: http://lefsetz.com/wordpress/
--
Listen to the podcast:
-iHeart: https://ihr.fm/2Gi5PFj
-Apple: https://apple.co/2ndmpvp
--
http://www.twitter.com/lefsetz
--
If you would like to subscribe to the LefsetzLetter,
http://www.lefsetz.com/lists/?p=subscribe&id=1
If you do not want to receive any more LefsetzLetters, http://lefsetz.com/lists/?p=unsubscribe&uid=0eecea7b60b461717065cbde887c8e25
To change your email address http://lefsetz.com/lists/?p=preferences&uid=0eecea7b60b461717065cbde887c8e25
Oh, I've been in people's backyard pools with three year olds. But as far as entering what we used to call an "Olympic-size" pool, with a depth over my head and a distance from one side to another of more than one or two strokes, I don't think so.
You see back in the Islands I went snorkeling. They passed out these little inflatable bags that were supposed to serve as life preservers, and I didn't think twice. But after looking at the fish I turned to go back and I realized I was in a current. Okay, okay. I swam slow and steady, but when I looked up the boat was still far away. Not light years away, but I was alone, in the water, outside of the confines of the United States and I won't say I began to panic, but I did start to get scared. And I'm paddling and paddling and eventually I make it to someone else's boat. Which I pull myself upon. And no one questioned me, and I thought that was weird, but after resting about five minutes it was time to swim back to my boat, which really was pretty close, but I was daunted, and after making it, I don't remember going swimming again.
I grew up swimming. My mother took us to the beach...those are some of my earliest memories. We went to Cape Cod on vacation. I knew how to swim before I even attended Camp JCC at six years old. And I got all the badges and Junior Lifesaving and then Senior Lifesaving...
I even went snorkeling alone in Sharm El-Sheik, when it was briefly part of Israel, when the only abodes were tents, and I was much further from the shore than I was in the Caribbean, and I was diving down into coral reefs and...
There was that time in my late twenties when I would go to the West L.A. YMCA and swim 600 yards a day. I had the Speedo and the goggles.
But you eventually burn out on swimming. It's one of the more boring sports.
And I didn't realize I hadn't been swimming since that time in the Islands until about seven years ago, after I had rotator cuff surgery.
And the more time that went by, the more uptight I became.
I mean how strong was my upper body anyway? I do these exercises with a band every day, but I don't pump iron, I don't like to do any exercise that has no component of fun. And I'm into aerobic, not anerobic. And I used to ride my bike, but there was an incident that was so heavy, that required surgery, that took me more than a decade to get over emotionally.
So I hiked.
And I was out walking today, and it was a beautiful day, and my leg strength is really pretty good, as is my breathing capacity. I've never smoked. I hike in the mountains three to five times a week. I do back exercises and I stretch every day. But swimming is more about the upper body than the lower body. When was I going to get back in the water?
And today I got a hankering. It was just that warm. And I dug deep into a drawer and I found...
The same damn bathing suit that I wore in the Caribbean. It was faded, stretched out, but I put it on and traipsed down to the pool in the Lodge and...
There were two ten year olds in the pool, acting just like I did when I was that age, without a care in the world, believing there was no way they could drown, never mind there being no supervision.
I'll be honest. I was too anxious to dive into the deep end. I know, I know, it's psychological, but still.
So I walked down to the shallow end and I was confronted with the fact that I always dove in, but here it was too shallow.
So holding on to the rail I tippy-toed down and...
The water was cold. Somehow I expected it to be warmer, but I've been through this routine a zillion times. You've got to go in all at once, to acclimatize yourself, soon thereafter it doesn't feel cold at all.
And that's what I did.
And I experienced an unanticipated euphoria. I was connected to who I once was, it felt so good.
But now I had to swim.
No one was watching, there was no test, so I started off with a baby step, I swam the width of the pool. And then again. And again.
And now I started evaluating my stroke. I realized when I was turning my head for air, I was turning too much of my back. So I adjusted.
And then I walked out to the deepest part of the pool I could still stand in and...
Swam to the shallow end.
That was not a problem. But I won't say I was super-confident.
Now it was time to swim into the deep end. I chose a ladder on the side, just shy of the end, for my target. And the one great thing about a pool is you can open your eyes underwater and see where you're going, and I could see the aluminum steps and it was no problem.
And from there, I swam to the ladder across the pool, all the way at the deep end.
These were not huge accomplishments.
But you reach a certain age when...
You wonder if you can still do it.
Most people stop doing it.
And I do certain things. If I die taking chances on the ski slope, I'm fine with that. But every once in a while I wonder... If I fall and get hurt, how fast will I recover? I've been injured, it does happen. But when you get older, it takes a longer time to recover, physically, never mind psychologically.
And now they have via ferratas in the mountains of America. I'd like to do that. But the newer ones are more serious, they require a certain amount of upper body strength, do I have that much?
In my thirties, even forties, I wouldn't have thought twice. I'll be honest, in my fifties too. We once thought of booking a trip to Canada where a heli-skiing operation has a via ferrata in the summer.
But now?
So I was at the deep end of the pool. Now I had to swim the entire length.
I knew I could make it, but I wanted to avoid freak-out, so I stayed within reach of the side.
And there was one moment when I swallowed a little water, but I stayed calm and focused on my technique and soon I was at the other wall.
Now what?
Well, especially when you get older, you have to build your strength up. You don't jump into the pool and do twenty laps without having gone swimming for years.
And to be honest, I could feel muscles I normally don't. Every exercise uses a different set of muscles.
So I didn't see the point in more laps. But I thought if I had easy access to a pool, I could go in every day, build up my stamina. That's who I am. I'm into nailing the routine.
But I don't have regular access to a pool.
So I'm there in the water, alone, wondering what I'm supposed to do.
No more laps were necessary, I'd proven my point.
But was I supposed to just float, or get out, or..?
And then I realized if there was someone else there, I could have stayed in forever. You know, until my skin pruned.
Ultimately, after a few more minutes, I got out. Toweled off and came back to the room.
But I can't wait to go back in tomorrow. This time, with a dive!
--
Visit the archive: http://lefsetz.com/wordpress/
--
Listen to the podcast:
-iHeart: https://ihr.fm/2Gi5PFj
-Apple: https://apple.co/2ndmpvp
--
http://www.twitter.com/lefsetz
--
If you would like to subscribe to the LefsetzLetter,
http://www.lefsetz.com/lists/?p=subscribe&id=1
If you do not want to receive any more LefsetzLetters, http://lefsetz.com/lists/?p=unsubscribe&uid=0eecea7b60b461717065cbde887c8e25
To change your email address http://lefsetz.com/lists/?p=preferences&uid=0eecea7b60b461717065cbde887c8e25
The United States Of Cults
Challenge the cult at your peril.
Have you listened to Joe Rogan's podcast? Can you name two songs from Taylor Swift's latest album? Can you name one member of BTS? Are you even on Twitter/X, never mind eating up every word Elon Musk utters? Are you one of the 130,000 on the Kamala Harris Zoom call?
Odds are you can't or you aren't. Large odds. The above represent cults, and they get overblown coverage in traditional media, giving an inaccurate picture of what is truly going on. And if you question anything about the object of devotion, you will be excoriated, to the point where most people don't even try, because they can't endure the hate.
All this news about Joe Rogan having a number one podcast... Most of it is about how much money he's making. And Bloomberg just ran a story about his impact in Austin. But we don't have accurate statistics as to how many people actually listen to Rogan. Sure, you can download the podcast, follow him and certain platforms do this automatically, but have you spent the hours every day checking out what he has to say? Probably not. But if you point this out, if you question anything Rogan has to say, good luck, his fans are bonded to him. They live for Rogan. They believe he speaks their language. Someone is standing up for the uneducated bros who were not popular in high school. Rogan's podcast is full of conspiracies, inaccuracies, and this is a big problem, but not as big as conspiracies and inaccuracies across America.
One of the big stories this weekend was about a Swift show in Europe where people sat on the grass outside the stadium. Kudos to her. Then again, people have been trying to get a free listen forever. It just hasn't been an international story. I'm not saying Swift isn't big, but exactly how big is she? There's this canard that as soon as Swift comes out for Kamala it will change the election, ensuring Harris rides to victory. But in the seven or eight states that matter, how many Swift fans are there? Sure, register them, every vote counts, but what makes you believe her endorsement will swing the election? Springsteen and his music were known by more people than Swift's, by a huge margin. He was all over MTV, the radio, but his endorsement didn't move the needle. The Eagles and Linda Ronstadt couldn't deliver the presidential nomination for Jerry Brown. These three acts still have more penetration than Swift, more mindshare in terms of songs known by the public, but the media and the Swifties have you convinced that she can move mountains, and she cannot.
Not only do you not know a member of BTS, you probably can't name a single K-pop song, even though you've heard all about the overhyped scene. Let's be clear, the music industry loves this hype. Anything to drive streams and ticket sales, but how big is the BTS Army in America? Or, as someone in the Phish camp once said to me, they don't know how many Phish fans there really are, is it the same fifteen thousand people going to every arena show? Once again, Phish has a business, kudos. But they outpunch their weight in my inbox. Someone farts and a Phishhead will e-mail me a connection to the Vermont band.
As for Harris... There's been euphoria since she replaced Biden on the ticket. But 130,000 women on a Zoom call, in a country of 340 million? Even raising 300 million dollars, not insignificant, but that does not mean she'll win in November. Only seven or eight states matter. What can she do to win there, where Biden squeaked by, on 80,000 votes. Sure, Biden won the popular vote, but the Electoral College is something different.
As for the tech bros... One thing about the musicians, the entertainers endorsing and supporting political candidates, they're not in it for the money. Whereas the tone-deaf Elon Musk and Marc Andreessen make no bones that a Trump victory in November will benefit them financially. Andreessen is so heavily invested in Crypto that he wants someone in office to support a world which has not shown a practical use other than for ransomware. And Musk? One thing about Musk is he owns Twitter/X, so he outpunches most of the other people I've written about above, but have you noticed Tesla sales not only faltered, they helped bring down the entire market last week? But tell this to a bro... The same bros who think they're winning in meme stocks, the same bros who are buying crypto meme-coins that have no value other than speculation. The tech titans are so myopic, so out of touch, they don't realize they've replaced the cable company as the second most hated entity in America (Ticketmaster is the perennial number one). This is the same blindness that had big time media missing the Trump surge of 2016.
So you've got these cults, not tiny by any stretch of the imagination. And there is real power within them, believe me, Taylor Swift is making bank, but people are afraid to question their power, because of the sh*t that will rain down upon them.
People believe in these cults because it's human nature. It makes them feel good. Especially in a world where the individual has never felt more powerless. And it's those on the fringe that garner the most belief. It's no fun pledging fealty to the person or scene everybody else does. This is your identity. No one can cross the object of your belief/fandom.
But once again, these are CULTS! Large cults, but they don't encompass the public at large, not by a long shot.
Cable news? It's lucky if it reaches a million people. Walter Cronkite spoke, it moved mountains. We still have one newspaper that can change the course of political history, the "New York Times" brought down Biden. But no other newspaper has this power, none.
But I won't say that the "Times" has a handle on popular culture, can tell which way the wind blows. Because the "Times" was built for a world where the big stories rose to the top and only the big stories mattered. So we get an endless whipsaw effect, blowing us left and right on entertainment stories that don't matter. At least everybody knows who J.Lo is, but one of the acts with the most press recently is Gracie Abrams, some might have even heard her name, but her music? And that of Kate Hudson? You're entitled to make a go of it, but that doesn't mean we'll accept it.
Hell, most rockers believe rock is not dead. They'll point to aged acts and Active Rock acts...talk about a niche. When was the last time a rock act had a track that dominated the culture? Maybe Coldplay twenty years ago. Yes, rock used to be a big tent, including both AC/DC and the Little River Band, but not Olivia Newton-John. Raw belief is not enough, it does not make something true, but it feels good to the believers so they bully others into believing what they say is true, when it is not.
Yes, add up all the cults and it makes a difference. But we don't have one cult with the power of network television or terrestrial radio in the last century. Things have changed, but the sensibility of the public and the news media has not.
I wrote about the flaws in a Kamala Harris campaign and it was unacceptable. Some people believed I'd gone MAGA, was going to vote for the Orange Man, when nothing could be further from the truth. Blind devotion crosses all age groups these days, all political persuasions, you cannot question the orthodoxy.
Even Biden being too old to run. You took it on faith that the Democrats were trustworthy, you could believe what they said. But that did not turn out to be true.
And it's hard to be an individual with your own opinion, because that oftentimes leaves you alone, and no one likes the solitary life.
I hope Harris wins in November. But statistics tell us it will be a tight race. Furthermore, the constant attacks on Trump's character are not working, even criminal conviction couldn't sway people, the Trump cult is unswayable. But how are you going to bring the independents, the changeable voters to your side? By talking about the future, the issues. But the Democrats have been so busy saying the economy is great under Biden that they can't acknowledge and sympathize with those who are struggling.
Or to quote Pauline Kael, who didn't really say it, even though everyone believes she did... How could Nixon win, nobody she knew voted for him! Too many are living in bubbles. And the news media is not helping. The media loves rah-rah, it loves a story that it believes most people support, it sells subscriptions and advertising, But if you're on "Entertainment Tonight" or in "People" not only will it probably not move the needle, most people will still be unaware of who you are and what you're doing.
And the music business found out that TikTok stars don't necessarily translate into mainstream music stars, so now everyone is sh*tting on the platform. But the industry has not found another way to find and break acts, and TikTok is as powerful as ever.
Just like the anti-social media crowd. How much time have you spent on TikTok? How can you be an expert if you've never been on the platform?
And the aforementioned "Times," appealing to its educated older base, talks about the evils of smartphones and social media seemingly every day. Has this put a dent in usage? Do those on social media even hear it? It's just a circle jerk amongst an elite who think they know better. Completely detached from reality.
And Nate Silver's numbers can't be accurate because he's involved in a new business funded by Peter Thiel. You can't separate one from the other. Polling is data, but now that Silver is associated with the enemy he's been taken off the table by those on the left, he's a pariah.
This is the country we live in. Where what is small as seen as big. Where you can't challenge anybody's belief. And you can't trust the media to get it right even if it's doing its best not to be biased.
Does that mean I have the answers? Absolutely not. I do my best to take the temperature of America, by reading and asking people questions everywhere I go. I don't know. But I'm trying.
You should try too.
Have you listened to Joe Rogan's podcast? Can you name two songs from Taylor Swift's latest album? Can you name one member of BTS? Are you even on Twitter/X, never mind eating up every word Elon Musk utters? Are you one of the 130,000 on the Kamala Harris Zoom call?
Odds are you can't or you aren't. Large odds. The above represent cults, and they get overblown coverage in traditional media, giving an inaccurate picture of what is truly going on. And if you question anything about the object of devotion, you will be excoriated, to the point where most people don't even try, because they can't endure the hate.
All this news about Joe Rogan having a number one podcast... Most of it is about how much money he's making. And Bloomberg just ran a story about his impact in Austin. But we don't have accurate statistics as to how many people actually listen to Rogan. Sure, you can download the podcast, follow him and certain platforms do this automatically, but have you spent the hours every day checking out what he has to say? Probably not. But if you point this out, if you question anything Rogan has to say, good luck, his fans are bonded to him. They live for Rogan. They believe he speaks their language. Someone is standing up for the uneducated bros who were not popular in high school. Rogan's podcast is full of conspiracies, inaccuracies, and this is a big problem, but not as big as conspiracies and inaccuracies across America.
One of the big stories this weekend was about a Swift show in Europe where people sat on the grass outside the stadium. Kudos to her. Then again, people have been trying to get a free listen forever. It just hasn't been an international story. I'm not saying Swift isn't big, but exactly how big is she? There's this canard that as soon as Swift comes out for Kamala it will change the election, ensuring Harris rides to victory. But in the seven or eight states that matter, how many Swift fans are there? Sure, register them, every vote counts, but what makes you believe her endorsement will swing the election? Springsteen and his music were known by more people than Swift's, by a huge margin. He was all over MTV, the radio, but his endorsement didn't move the needle. The Eagles and Linda Ronstadt couldn't deliver the presidential nomination for Jerry Brown. These three acts still have more penetration than Swift, more mindshare in terms of songs known by the public, but the media and the Swifties have you convinced that she can move mountains, and she cannot.
Not only do you not know a member of BTS, you probably can't name a single K-pop song, even though you've heard all about the overhyped scene. Let's be clear, the music industry loves this hype. Anything to drive streams and ticket sales, but how big is the BTS Army in America? Or, as someone in the Phish camp once said to me, they don't know how many Phish fans there really are, is it the same fifteen thousand people going to every arena show? Once again, Phish has a business, kudos. But they outpunch their weight in my inbox. Someone farts and a Phishhead will e-mail me a connection to the Vermont band.
As for Harris... There's been euphoria since she replaced Biden on the ticket. But 130,000 women on a Zoom call, in a country of 340 million? Even raising 300 million dollars, not insignificant, but that does not mean she'll win in November. Only seven or eight states matter. What can she do to win there, where Biden squeaked by, on 80,000 votes. Sure, Biden won the popular vote, but the Electoral College is something different.
As for the tech bros... One thing about the musicians, the entertainers endorsing and supporting political candidates, they're not in it for the money. Whereas the tone-deaf Elon Musk and Marc Andreessen make no bones that a Trump victory in November will benefit them financially. Andreessen is so heavily invested in Crypto that he wants someone in office to support a world which has not shown a practical use other than for ransomware. And Musk? One thing about Musk is he owns Twitter/X, so he outpunches most of the other people I've written about above, but have you noticed Tesla sales not only faltered, they helped bring down the entire market last week? But tell this to a bro... The same bros who think they're winning in meme stocks, the same bros who are buying crypto meme-coins that have no value other than speculation. The tech titans are so myopic, so out of touch, they don't realize they've replaced the cable company as the second most hated entity in America (Ticketmaster is the perennial number one). This is the same blindness that had big time media missing the Trump surge of 2016.
So you've got these cults, not tiny by any stretch of the imagination. And there is real power within them, believe me, Taylor Swift is making bank, but people are afraid to question their power, because of the sh*t that will rain down upon them.
People believe in these cults because it's human nature. It makes them feel good. Especially in a world where the individual has never felt more powerless. And it's those on the fringe that garner the most belief. It's no fun pledging fealty to the person or scene everybody else does. This is your identity. No one can cross the object of your belief/fandom.
But once again, these are CULTS! Large cults, but they don't encompass the public at large, not by a long shot.
Cable news? It's lucky if it reaches a million people. Walter Cronkite spoke, it moved mountains. We still have one newspaper that can change the course of political history, the "New York Times" brought down Biden. But no other newspaper has this power, none.
But I won't say that the "Times" has a handle on popular culture, can tell which way the wind blows. Because the "Times" was built for a world where the big stories rose to the top and only the big stories mattered. So we get an endless whipsaw effect, blowing us left and right on entertainment stories that don't matter. At least everybody knows who J.Lo is, but one of the acts with the most press recently is Gracie Abrams, some might have even heard her name, but her music? And that of Kate Hudson? You're entitled to make a go of it, but that doesn't mean we'll accept it.
Hell, most rockers believe rock is not dead. They'll point to aged acts and Active Rock acts...talk about a niche. When was the last time a rock act had a track that dominated the culture? Maybe Coldplay twenty years ago. Yes, rock used to be a big tent, including both AC/DC and the Little River Band, but not Olivia Newton-John. Raw belief is not enough, it does not make something true, but it feels good to the believers so they bully others into believing what they say is true, when it is not.
Yes, add up all the cults and it makes a difference. But we don't have one cult with the power of network television or terrestrial radio in the last century. Things have changed, but the sensibility of the public and the news media has not.
I wrote about the flaws in a Kamala Harris campaign and it was unacceptable. Some people believed I'd gone MAGA, was going to vote for the Orange Man, when nothing could be further from the truth. Blind devotion crosses all age groups these days, all political persuasions, you cannot question the orthodoxy.
Even Biden being too old to run. You took it on faith that the Democrats were trustworthy, you could believe what they said. But that did not turn out to be true.
And it's hard to be an individual with your own opinion, because that oftentimes leaves you alone, and no one likes the solitary life.
I hope Harris wins in November. But statistics tell us it will be a tight race. Furthermore, the constant attacks on Trump's character are not working, even criminal conviction couldn't sway people, the Trump cult is unswayable. But how are you going to bring the independents, the changeable voters to your side? By talking about the future, the issues. But the Democrats have been so busy saying the economy is great under Biden that they can't acknowledge and sympathize with those who are struggling.
Or to quote Pauline Kael, who didn't really say it, even though everyone believes she did... How could Nixon win, nobody she knew voted for him! Too many are living in bubbles. And the news media is not helping. The media loves rah-rah, it loves a story that it believes most people support, it sells subscriptions and advertising, But if you're on "Entertainment Tonight" or in "People" not only will it probably not move the needle, most people will still be unaware of who you are and what you're doing.
And the music business found out that TikTok stars don't necessarily translate into mainstream music stars, so now everyone is sh*tting on the platform. But the industry has not found another way to find and break acts, and TikTok is as powerful as ever.
Just like the anti-social media crowd. How much time have you spent on TikTok? How can you be an expert if you've never been on the platform?
And the aforementioned "Times," appealing to its educated older base, talks about the evils of smartphones and social media seemingly every day. Has this put a dent in usage? Do those on social media even hear it? It's just a circle jerk amongst an elite who think they know better. Completely detached from reality.
And Nate Silver's numbers can't be accurate because he's involved in a new business funded by Peter Thiel. You can't separate one from the other. Polling is data, but now that Silver is associated with the enemy he's been taken off the table by those on the left, he's a pariah.
This is the country we live in. Where what is small as seen as big. Where you can't challenge anybody's belief. And you can't trust the media to get it right even if it's doing its best not to be biased.
Does that mean I have the answers? Absolutely not. I do my best to take the temperature of America, by reading and asking people questions everywhere I go. I don't know. But I'm trying.
You should try too.
--
Visit the archive: http://lefsetz.com/wordpress/
--
Listen to the podcast:
-iHeart: https://ihr.fm/2Gi5PFj
-Apple: https://apple.co/2ndmpvp
--
http://www.twitter.com/lefsetz
--
If you would like to subscribe to the LefsetzLetter,
http://www.lefsetz.com/lists/?p=subscribe&id=1
If you do not want to receive any more LefsetzLetters, http://lefsetz.com/lists/?p=unsubscribe&uid=0eecea7b60b461717065cbde887c8e25
To change your email address http://lefsetz.com/lists/?p=preferences&uid=0eecea7b60b461717065cbde887c8e25
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)