Grainge/Atlantic

The optics are bad.

Does the son of the founder of Amazon run Microsoft? They are competing on cloud computing. There are really only three major players in that sphere, just like the record companies.

Then again, although not mature, cloud computing is simple compared to breaking acts. Then again, how influential are record companies these days anyway?

So there are two parts of breaking an act. Signing and then marketing. Used to be it was about scouring the world to find unknown acts to develop. Now, everybody is aware of the talent available, and it's about signing said acts. And the major labels sign fewer acts than ever before, certainly compared to the overall marketplace.

Has Elliott Grainge earned this position? A more important question is whether Robert Kyncl knows what he's doing. The history of the record business is outsiders wreaking havoc, whether it be Bob Morgado or Andy Lack, the former who got power-hungry and destroyed the Warner Music Group and the latter who came from news and was involved in the rootkit scandal and... You remember Ahmet Ertegun, Mo Ostin, you only have to refer to them by their first names, but those two clowns?

Kyncl comes from visual entertainment. What has that got to do with records? Other than telling labels they should take less for YouTube play of their videos, nothing.

So will Elliott Grainge stop discussing business with his dad?

Talk about incestuous... Used to be label heads gave their progeny gigs in their own companies, they didn't get to run competitors.

In all, this elevation of Grainge is not a triumph, it reveals the record industry to be the retro enterprise it's become. Once again, fewer acts are signed, almost none are broken, and everything happens on the road. We keep hearing Lucian Grainge is the most important and powerful person in the music business, but everybody knows it's really Michael Rapino. If for no other reason than Rapino PAYS THE ACTS!

Get a major record deal and you're giving up most of the action. Which is why so many remain independent these days. All the majors can do is try to blow you up into a superstar. What's their success ratio here? Pretty poor. And it's not based on music so much as data. Create a great record without all the socials and streams and the major is not interested.

Unlike Netflix. Which believes the consumer base is wide, with different interests, and the key is to create more product to satisfy the public at large.

Quick, name the heads of the movie studios? You can't! And I'm telling you, the heads of the major record labels are equivalent. If you're inside, you may know Elliott Grainge, but if you're outside, who gives a damn.

As for the studios trying to get into the streaming space... What a farce. They're overcharging for little product, believing their histories are enough, as if people are aware of which company made which film or TV series. Hell, series that these traditional outfits own don't blow up until they're on Netflix, what does that say?

As for the genres of music the majors market... It's the Spotify Top 50, the acts with the shortest career arcs, who oftentimes can't even sell a ticket.

And rather than address this imbalance, how they no longer control the overall marketplace, we get all this gobbledygook from the majors, about initiatives in fan engagement...all of which has nothing to do with the overall marketplace. If hits were enough, these studio streamers would triumph. Turns out "Star Wars" spinoffs are not enough to get people to sign up for Disney+ and continue to pay every month. Hell, I'm not interested, but I watched every episode of "Baby Reindeer."

Where is the labels' "Baby Reindeer"? Something left field, unexpected, that becomes part of the public discussion, that you watch and don't forget.

If you think Sabrina Carpenter is a great story, you probably eat chocolate bars for dinner.

The real story of the summer is Zach Bryan, the grosses are amazing. And he is signed to Warner, but he'd made headway previously. And what he is selling...is otherwise completely absent from the Spotify Top 50, what the majors are selling.

All this Chappell Roan hype. I'm not as enthusiastic as most, the music doesn't affect me with an iota of the intensity that Bryan's does. And how did she break? By opening for Carpenter live, not all the traditional ways labels used to break acts.

The Big Three focus on terrestrial radio. Quick, does the computing industry still focus on floppy disks?

All we hear in tech is about going forward. The story of the past two years has been AI. Everybody in America has heard of it. And the Sphere is bigger than any act of the past few years. What does that say? That the labels are out of touch!

Do I think Elliott Grainge is in touch, has his finger on the pulse, has the magic formula?

Of course not. He's just another major label wanker with a pedigree. The history of business is outsiders disrupt. Grainge is the ultimate insider, all he's really got going for him is he's young. He's the antithesis of the tech titans, whether it be Zuckerberg or the Instagram guys or...who came out of nowhere, took the tools and made something new.

Yes, the tools. The notes. It's what you do with them. And according to the major labels, you can do very little with them.

How did the Big Three squander pubic consciousness? Used to be music drove the culture. Now it's a sideshow, because what is purveyed is for children with very little lasting value. All the excitement is ginned-up publicity. The music industry is like Joe Biden, telling us he's not too old, and has it under control, and that turned out to be a laugh.

The story of Kamala Harris's success is how much people hated that Joe Biden was the candidate.

And most people hate what the majors sell.

You can go to a gig and hear something new and different that titillates...

As for raw business... Unless you're a superstar, streaming doesn't pay well, if at all. The script has flipped, used to be the tour was the advertisement for the album, now the album is the advertisement for the tour. And that aphorism was coined over a decade ago!

And how did the majors deal with this?

By trying to horn in on the acts' interests, the so-called 360 deals.

Where is the innovation?

Absent.

So you're going to find another act that sounds like the last one, get the brain dead media to hype it and most people are not even paying attention.

Meanwhile, all we get is endless consolidation.

And even this doesn't satiate Wall Street. Universal reported a slowdown in streaming subscriptions and the stock tanked, massively.

Meanwhile, Spotify keeps innovating, with podcasts, audiobooks...sure, it laid off people, but the company is not moribund. Where are all these new ideas at the major record labels? Nowhere to be found. Or de minimis in impact. They're operating like it's the same at is ever was, and nothing could be further from the truth.

Even the people in the business would rather talk streaming television than music. Many have contempt for the audience. They're inured to the lifestyle while professing their adoration of music, they keep telling us it's the same as it ever was, as if Taylor Swift is the Beatles, and she's not.

Grainge signed Ice Spice. I'll give him that. But how much penetration does she really have in the marketplace. This is not Adele, never mind Trippie Redd and 6ix9ine. This is the guy you're putting in charge?

Go for it. Perpetuate the insular old model. See if that works for you.

It hasn't for years. The big story is how the majors can't break an act.

And we're supposed to care about them?

They're in a bubble. In a world where there's no barrier to entry. Without their catalogs, the majors would be moribund.

That's the record industry folks.

What a joke.


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