Pre-Debate Update

Warren is gonna win the nomination and beat Trump. End of story.

Driving this afternoon I was listening to Danny Wilde on direct connection via my iLX-W650. For newcomers, that's the Alpine head unit I installed in my car, a 2005 Saab that is really a Subaru. But the installer ran a cable into my glove box so I could plug my iPhone in directly and get CarPlay and superior sound. CarPlay is sort of cool, a direct connection is mind-blowing, you lose something with Bluetooth. Driving on the 10 last night, I heard Karla Bonoff's "Isn't It Always Love," and other stuff I hadn't heard in a long time. You see music through earbuds just doesn't cut it. But in the old days, we purchased bigger and better rigs to get closer to the sound, and I was reminded of that yesterday, especially when shuffle revealed the Doobie Brothers' "Natural Thing." The band was there, but the producer and engineer tweaked the sound just a bit, to make a great record.

And there are so many great records that never got their due, like Danny Wilde's "The Boyfriend." Sure, "Isn't It Enough" got some MTV love, but he was on Island which at that time just wasn't powerful enough, then he switched to Geffen and didn't deliver and then he got back together with his old buddy Phil Solem and became the Rembrandts and they delivered delicious stuff, but then they recorded the "Friends" theme and the act's image changed, but at least they can still tour on that hit.

But listening to "Isn't It Enough" I took notice of how long ago that was. 1986, thirty four years ago. So much has changed, people don't even make records like this anymore.

And our country surely isn't stuck in the eighties either.

But on the way to a hike tonight, I was touching the screen and changing tracks and I realized I was about to get in a wreck, multiple times, so on the way back home I turned up the news, Howard was repeating what I'd already heard. And what I got was Brian Williams pompously interviewing the usual suspects with their suspect analysis.

You see the Democrats and the media think it's still 2016. They're fighting the last war. And these are the people who called it wrong to begin with! They said Trump had no chance. The ball has moved, times have changed, you couldn't run Danny Wilde up the charts today, that straight ahead rock sound isn't in style. But somehow Joe Biden is?

So these outlets have to fill space. I don't understand the people who have TV news on all day long, especially because if you watch it all they do is quote the newspapers and discuss and argue over it, why not read the newspapers to begin with? These channels are cheering squads. Aligned with one party or another. And the people who watch want to feel good, but they're not the ones who need convincing, it's those not paying attention who do.

So what we've got is the political caste, the insiders, handicapping the election. This is like asking Doug Morris about Napster back in the year 2000. Or paying attention to the idiots who still think physical is gonna come back, that streaming is for losers because you can't own it. Are these same people angry that they can't own the shows they stream on Netflix? You've got to ignore these people, if you want to know where it's all going.

So, Trump decided to play by his own rules back in 2016. At first, everybody said he was wrong, both the Republican candidates and the RNC. But then, when it became clear Trump would be the candidate, they all got on board. But somehow, the Democratic nominee for 2020 must play by the rules. Huh? Isn't this how we got into this mess? Looking at history, viewing today through the past? This is how Apple defeated Microsoft to become the most valuable company on the planet. You skate to where the puck is going, not where it's been.

So for the last month or so, Trump has gone positively insane, completely off his rocker, do you think people haven't recognized this? Of course his base is gonna continue to vote for him. It'd be like classic rock fans suddenly embracing hip-hop, not gonna happen.

So Trump tapped into the frustrations of voters back in 2016, but the media and the DNC say the Democratic candidate can't tap into the frustrations of voters today. Story is more people hate Trump, they'll vote for anybody else but him. It's just a matter of appealing to them and getting out the vote.

But how do the usual suspects appeal to the voters, motivate them to get out? By endorsing Joe Biden whom no one can get excited about. I mean you might as well stay home. We're not returning to Danny Wilde's eighties and there's no way we're returning to the Obama era. The coordinates have changed, you've got to change your course.

But all the experts say no, that you've got to stay the course because the risk of Trump winning is just too big. That's like saying not to put out a new album because it might flop and this will negatively impact sales of catalog. But the truth is if you do nothing, if you stay out of the marketplace completely, catalog sales will tank all by their lonesome. Nothing is forever. You want to see the new "Star Wars," not the old one.

So the Democrats are all about infighting. Now they're even attacking Warren for taking big money in the past. She changed her mind, she saw the cash Bernie was raising, she decided to forgo the money of the man in favor of the proletariat. You can't change your mind anymore? You can't be impacted by what's going on?

And the truth is anybody with money is afraid of Warren, not only on the right, but the left. One, they used to control the process, and now they're losing control. Two, rich people don't want to sacrifice, they're afraid of losing, they've anointed themselves as an inviolate elite that can't be challenged. But the last time I checked, there are very few rich people, the middle class, or what's left of it, and the lower class, far outnumber the wealthy, and it's one person, one vote.

Which brings us back to the Electoral College. Yes, it comes down to four or five states. But Hillary, coasting in anticipation of her coronation, didn't do the hard work there, furthermore, she was advised by the same wankers who think they're still in charge today.

You should listen. The DNC and the talking head class are so afraid of Trump and the Republicans it's scary. If polls show five candidates beating Trump, it's too early to trust. You can't talk about any controversial subject. Yup, they're all saying to avoid certain topics tonight. It's like the Republicans are the parents and the Democrats are their children. Time to grow a pair and stand up for what you believe in. But no, you've got to chafe at your parents'/the Republicans' game, you can't define your own.

So we have a Democratic party in disarray, those making money off of it, the consultants, pollsters, the infrastructure, not wanting to play for what's right, but what others say is safe, all the while getting paid. It's positively ridiculous.

It wasn't industry insiders who moved the music business forward. It was Shawn Fanning. A COLLEGE STUDENT! And then music distribution was overhauled by a Swedish guy no one had ever heard of, Daniel Ek. But somehow in politics we should listen to the establishment? Give credit to music, it keeps moving forward, we blow out the old acts and the old execs, but not in politics, even when confronted with a sea change, i.e. the election of Trump.

Warren is Guns N' Roses. Or at least Pat Benatar. Meanwhile, Biden is Air Supply, which a few might tolerate but no one believes in. It's always the envelope-pushing that's the biggest, but we must play it safe in politics? Look at the movie studios, only making sequels. Now they're starting to fail in the marketplace, people have seen the trick, they want something new. And most want a whole new paradigm, i.e. streaming TV. So what does the movie industry do? Raise prices to keep their margins. Once again, it's like no one ever read Clayton Christensen's "Innovator's Dilemma." You superserve the usual suspects at your peril. The new is always denigrated, it's not mainstream, people don't need it, and then it puts the old out of business overnight. Remember when Tower Records folded?

So if you want to know what's going on, don't watch TV news, read the newspaper, and read editorial and opinion with a grain of salt. You want to know the facts and then come up with your own analysis.

The facts are out there, it's just the analysis that sucks. It's like no one is living in present day reality. People hate Trump, their wages are stagnant, graduates owe a ton of money, they can't afford houses, but because the stock market is gangbusters they're all gonna vote for Trump? OF COURSE NOT! They don't have skin in that game. So, Warren appeals to their souls and their pocketbooks, she makes sense, they think she can provide a way out of this mess, that she's on their team. Neera Tanden is smart, but she's got it totally wrong. Now it's about the people, not the fat cats or insiders. That's how Trump won, and now you're gonna throw out that playbook?

You learn from the past, and then inject it into the present.

People are disenfranchised. They want to get behind a leader, they want someone to believe in.

And that's why Warren will win.


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