Coachella Cancellation

Of course it's going to be canceled, it's just a matter of when.

You see it's all about the money. Goldenvoice has to pay the acts unless there's force majeure, essentially an act of God, something completely out of the control of the promoter.

As for insurance?

Ever since SARS the promoters have none.

So, it would probably be wise to announce a cancellation immediately. That would save Goldenvoice some money and allow patrons to cancel/adjust their plans.

But who is going to take the hit?

Of course everybody loses money if the event is canceled. But right now, the promoter and the acts are playing a game of chicken. Goldenvoice is waiting for an edict from the government that the gig can't happen, and the acts are not gonna cancel until that occurs.

So, we're waiting.

But we know what direction this is going in. Just look at Italy!

As for China, recent word is it's much worse than portrayed and it's not actually fading.

The upside?

The live business is burgeoning, because it's an experience in a world of fungible goods.

The downside?

It requires an assembly of masses of people.

Punters believe we live in a world of strict liability, one in which every loss is covered. It's kind of ridiculous if you think about it. Furthermore, corporations want to pay less, railing about the fees of the plaintiffs' attorneys. But the truth is those fees, and the ultimate payments, are usually quite small, relatively, and they're the only check against these companies, if they don't make you go to arbitration to begin with, where the company almost always wins. If you're waiting for the government to save you... Just look at Boeing, and many other industries, the corporations basically check themselves, or there are too few inspectors to do the work anyway, like in the meat business. So we need class actions and "shyster" attorneys to level the playing field. As for the McDonald's hot coffee case...on the surface, it sounds ridiculous, but in trying to make sure the coffee was still hot when you drank it at the office, McDonald's made it so hot that it burned a customer's skin. You want to be protected against that, right? As for bogus claims, they rarely get paid. Although nuisance claims get paid all the time, it's oftentimes cheaper to pay than to go through the process of litigation. It's an imperfect system, but it's the one we've got.

And, insurance companies are in the business of not paying. It's kind of like Vegas, if the gamblers were winning, the whole city would not exist. Insurers have to make a profit. And insurers can go broke. An agent writes the policy and oftentimes it's laid off on a bunch of reinsurance companies, to spread the risk, but when a catastrophe hits, there may not be enough money to make all the insureds whole, the insurance companies just declare bankruptcy.

So, if you paid for plane tickets and Coachella is canceled, you're eating them. Although, many airlines are saying if you book now and then cancel it's okay... But what about if you already booked?

Your hotel may or may not give you your money back.

All those businesses in Palm Springs... That money is lost.

And this is bigger than Coachella. This affects the entire nation. The aforementioned airlines are screwed, they're cutting back flights, but still costs are relatively static, whether people fly or not. As for the flight attendants and pilots, they'll be laid off.

As for the government?

So far, it's only saying it's going to help the corporations. As in socialism for the rich and democracy for the poor. The government has got enough money, it's just more concerned with the auto industry and other big donors than the individual. And sure, the big corporations do employ many people, but individuals are at the end of the line, always.

After Coachella...there goes Jazz Fest and Bonnaroo and the rest of the festivals. You've got to keep your customers safe, if they're dead they cannot buy tickets.

And this is a Tylenol situation. It'll be interesting to see whether promoters bend over backwards like Johnson & Johnson or deny like Perrier. In a crisis, too many companies do the wrong thing, especially since the executives did not start the outfit and have little ownership interest.

The promoters need to tell the ticketholders they will be made whole. Maybe, similar to the airlines, you can cancel any ticket two weeks out. This will give the promoter time to resell the ducat, frequently for a higher price.

The promoters have to say they won't lay people off.

The promoters must give the illusion that it's safety first. Which is why they should cancel these shows now instead of later, but it's all about the contracts, the public comes last.

As for the public... You're never gonna go to a show with tens of thousands of people from all over the world...no one will show up, they're too scared, especially in a world where European nations are already limiting the size of public gatherings.

And instead of denying the problem, promoters have to get ahead of it, they can't be like Trump telling everybody they're safe and more people die from the flu. You've got to be overly cautious so people trust you.

As for the coronavirus being gone by the hot weather...there were three waves of the Spanish flu, so...

We don't know what's gonna happen folks, at least with the coronavirus.

We do know what's gonna happen in the concert industry...shows will be canceled.

But what you don't know is many performers and managers live hand to mouth, I've heard from a number if their tours don't go out they'll be broke. There's this image that everybody in the music business is rich, but that is not so.

It's a good time to own Netflix stock.

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