Trump/Biden?

Joe Biden will not be the Democratic nominee.

We're seeing a repeat of 2016, when the Democratic establishment told us to trust them, that they were the experts, and the numbers said that Hillary was going to win. She didn't. Now these same experts are telling us Biden is the safe bet, when the numbers indicate otherwise.

You may have caught the Post-ABC poll that indicated if the election were held today, Trump would beat Biden by six points.

You can see the poll here: https://wapo.st/3NUooCM

Or read the distillation thereof here: https://nyti.ms/3prl0Fm

These are both free links, click away!

Even worse are Biden's approval numbers. I quote from the "Times" article above:

"But in fact, only two of the past 13 presidents had approval ratings lower than Mr. Biden has at this point, according to an aggregate compilation by FiveThirtyEight.com — Mr. Trump and Jimmy Carter, both of whom lost re-election."

However, there's a caveat:

"More encouraging for Mr. Biden is the example of Ronald Reagan, who was just one-tenth of a point above where the current president is at this stage of his presidency, but came back to win a landslide re-election in 1984."

Do I fully trust this poll? Absolutely not. And I'm not the only one. There are questions as to who was queried. Furthermore, polls are not always accurate. But one thing is for sure, unlike in that old Monkees hit, very few people are believers in Joe Biden.

Let's not talk about his record. Voting is not intellectual, it's emotional. Otherwise why would all those Democrats have ignored the call to vote for Hillary just for the Supreme Court nominations? Emotionally, Americans feel the country is on the wrong path, those on both the right and the left, and they don't believe Biden can solve this problem, which is the problem we want fixed. Healing, bringing the country together. And how can this be done? By LEADING! Barack Obama had little experience, but people connected with him, had hope. Come on, who has hope in Joe Biden?

All you aged Democrats with your fingers crossed, don't bother to blow back. Of course I'd vote for Biden, of course his record is good, but that's not what I'm talking about here, I'm talking about ELECTABILITY! And that's where Joe falls down.

I don't want an octogenarian running the country now, never mind half a decade from now. Technology is moving at light speed, and I can barely find a boomer who is on TikTok. Pooh-pooh the social network all you want, but I could point you to music clips that would blow your mind. They might even be on YouTube, but it's the algorithm that serves them up, excavates them from the depths. TikTok is modern-day radio, yet no one who professes to love radio can admit this, or is even aware of it.

You have to use the technology to understand it. Politicians and the cognoscenti are anti-social media, but the nation lives on social media! Did you see the FCC Chairman who claimed television was a "vast wasteland" just died? Is there anybody who would claim TV is a vast wasteland today? Hell, even the days of Springsteen's 57 channels are in the rearview mirror. That song was released over THIRTY YEARS AGO! Man, not only are the times-a-changin', they've changed. Remember all those people who said CDs had the best audio quality and should be the standard, which everybody should buy? Well, now even Apple streams tracks at higher than CD quality, no one is bitching about audio quality anymore, especially with earbuds the standard of listening. As for file-trading... You're telling me you still have files?

That's right, Biden is out of touch, but he's not the only Democrat. As for the Republicans, they're not only clueless as to today, they want to jet us all back to the past, afraid of a future wherein whites don't dominate. Criticize that one all you want, but Trump's Doral is hosting a white nationalist conference this weekend. Facts don't lie.

But Donald Trump does.

Yes, the lies have finally caught up with Donald. He's torched his credibility. Lying about so much that when he says he never met E. Jean Carroll, other than his savant followers, nobody takes his statement at face value. I mean who can be on Trump's side in this case? Certainly not the independents who will sway the next election. Of which there are actually few, but enough to make one man the winner or not.

And speaking of men... You can't find one person, of either sex, who supports Kamala Harris. I know, her husband, some people who worked with her, but that's not enough to win an election. Biden should dump her hard, right now.

But what we really need is someone else to enter the race. Someone younger, who is not afraid to speak the truth. Someone people might be able to believe in.

My guy is Newsom, he looks good, regularly attacks Republicans, and those who believe California is in trouble...don't know the facts. As for real estate prices and even homeless people, that's everywhere. But in the south there's less of a safety net.

But Newsom is afraid to go against the Democratic cabal. Unlike Bernie. Even Gen-Z has babies now, it's nearly a decade later and our candidates are older white men spewing the same crap? I'm disillusioned, and I'm not the only one.

On the right they're paralyzed too. Everybody's afraid to go up against Trump, for fear he'll excoriate them. Then again, he's lost credibility, and a fighter could excise him. Even Chris Christie. If you came out swinging from minute one and got your people to vote in the primary.

And then we have the debt ceiling crisis. We've got to hear about it for months, all the potential pitfalls of not raising it, when the truth is someone is going to blink, because no one wants to be responsible for putting the nation, the world, in turmoil. It's all posturing, until...

And the Republicans have seen this movie. With abortion and gun laws. Most of the country, by far, wants both, but they're beholden to a fringe right that is causing them to lose elections. That's what happened in 2020. And their gerrymandering is coming to bite them in the ass. Now, in these Republican districts, you have to be worried about being primaried by some nincompoop further right, so you can't speak the truth. But if these were open districts...

And the right's position doesn't add up. Appeal to the blue collar whilst you take away their benefits in the name of freedom and the rich reap the rewards.

Meanwhile, those on the left, the educated "elite"... Sure, some of them are willing to sacrifice, but not most. They worked hard and they want to keep their money. It's a bad look. They want nothing to do with everyman. Don't want to shop where they do, have their kids go to the same schools, vacation in the same places. I hate these people too, and I'm the product of an elite education. So you got rich working at the bank, what did you contribute to society? NOTHING! And you're no better than the rest of us. But since you're rich, you think you are, hogwash.

But it doesn't matter what I think, it matters what everybody else thinks.

The downtrodden just want to flip the table, which was how Trump got elected. And no one else wants change, for fear they'll lose something. So those who want to upset the apple cart are in control, a faceless, overlooked mob. On both the right and the left. I mean talk about no hope... Of course there are those on the right who hate the libs on principle and will never vote for a Democrat, but they are far from the majority, FAR FROM IT!

So where is the Democrat willing to speak English and fight for radical change? And we need radical change. Or at least the promise thereof. And believe me, younger voters, who came out in droves in 2020, believe we need change, overburdened with debt from college degrees that don't pay off. Used to be a state education was nearly free. But not any longer, because of taxes. No one wants to pay for anything. Socialism is the enemy. Ignorance rules. Where is someone who can explain it all in a comprehensible manner and lead us out of the maelstrom?

And why are the Democrats constantly afraid? Yup, the right have got them cornered and cowered, fearful if they bite back they'll alienate the "deplorables." Someone should stand up to the tail wagging the dog.

But the bottom line here is life is long. And what is expected frequently does not come to be.

Trump is on a losing streak. Not only in New York civil court, but potentially in Georgia and other places. It's definitely not additive, it's a bad look.

But bad look can still trump milquetoast. Come on, tell me about all the music superstars who are middle of the road, with no edge. You need an edge for people to get hooked on. Without it, you're bland and overlooked.

So the candidates in 2024 are far from decided, never mind the election. And Biden is getting older every day as Trump is getting caught in the legal system.

Furthermore, I believe a Republican other than Trump (and DeSantis!) could easily beat Biden. Someone more reasonable, less extreme. Not Marjorie Taylor Greene. Man, I saw Chris Sununu on Bill Maher and he'd eviscerate Biden, no doubt in my mind.

In golf it is said that if you play it safe to win, you lose.

The Democrats are playing it safe.

Something's got to give.

And I'm betting that it will.


--
Visit the archive: http://lefsetz.com/wordpress/
--
Listen to the podcast:
-iHeart: https://ihr.fm/2Gi5PFj
-Apple: https://apple.co/2ndmpvp
--
http://www.twitter.com/lefsetz
--
If you would like to subscribe to the LefsetzLetter,
http://www.lefsetz.com/lists/?p=subscribe&id=1

If you do not want to receive any more LefsetzLetters, http://lefsetz.com/lists/?p=unsubscribe&uid=0eecea7b60b461717065cbde887c8e25

To change your email address http://lefsetz.com/lists/?p=preferences&uid=0eecea7b60b461717065cbde887c8e25