The Death Of Radio?

All you have to know is "Rich Men North of Richmond" went to number one on the streaming chart. Which is a bit complicated, because there's on demand streaming and radio-style streaming, and YouTube and... But if you make it to number one, one thing is for sure, people are listening!

It's all about consumption.

Can we forget about the good old days? You know, with fat label contracts and prodigious CD sales? They're never coming back, ever.

And we can forget about sales all together. The iTunes Store is de minimis, a fraction of what it once was. Twenty years have passed since its inception. To talk about iTunes consumption today is like talking about 78 consumption after the introduction of the 45. It's over. As for physical sales... That's souvenirs, that's not about listening. Travis Scott? He's number one this week because of a cheap vinyl offer. In other words, his residence atop the chart is manipulated. Unlike Morgan Wallen, who is #2, based on consumption, not sales. Ignore sales. They're a metric the labels use to manipulate the chart. But streaming?

You only get paid when people listen. The pre-internet generation hates this. They'd rather sell you the album, get their bucks and forget you. But this is incredibly shortsighted. What you want to do is create something so infectious that it will continue to be consumed, and you will get paid handsomely.

Now in the pre-internet era, the way you sold was via radio, and then music videos on MTV. People saw the product and then went out and bought it. In other words, radio and MTV were promotional tools. Radio's business is advertising. Stations don't care about the music, they'd air anything if enough people listened that they could sell advertising. It was a marriage of convenience. But that marriage is on the rocks.

Yesterday you used radio exposure to sell product. Today, when it works, you are selling streams. Sure, there's publishing money on airplay in the U.S., but the record company doesn't get paid a penny. And the majors no longer own all the publishing, or have admin deals on the hits at a very low rate. So the labels need to focus on streaming to make money, to pay their bills.

Now online radio pays both the record company and the publisher. As does satellite radio, which is selling subscriptions, not ads. But the real money for the labels is in direct consumption. People choosing to listen to a certain track, streaming it. That's it. To think otherwise is to deny the present.

However, the major labels are lost in this new era, and keep on pouring money into radio. Just like advertisers overpay for spots on network TV. Listenership and viewership are way down, but radio and TV are the best way to reach mass, however tiny.

But we've noticed for over a decade that terrestrial radio is moribund, it goes on records after they've become established hits online. But never have we had a track like "Rich Men North of Richmond," which went to number one and stayed there based solely on streams, with radio not even playing the track. "Rich Men North of Richmond" is nowhere to be found on the Mediabase Country chart. And it's not on the Top Forty chart either.

Sure, maybe both of these formats will ultimately go on the Oliver Anthony track. But I must ask, who are these passive terrestrial radio listeners who need to hear it on the radio to then consume? And as I stated above, it is all about consumption. Terrestrial radio pays no recording royalties. None. So why is radio still the labels' number one focus?

And so far, Oliver Anthony has refused to make a deal.

Chance the Rapper made it without a deal, but that's hip-hop, with a long history of free mixtapes. But country? A supposedly controlled market, all beholden to radio?

Maybe we're entering the second revolutionary age. The first started with the internet and Napster. The second starts with the death of traditional exposure outlets. It's not only radio, but television. A late night appearance? Means nothing. SNL and CBS "Sunday Morning" can move the needle, but no other show has this power.

So, the labels find the talent online, after it established success with a fanbase. And then the major label exploits said music...exactly how?

I'm not saying the major labels are going out of business, no way, they control almost all of recorded music history, it's in their vaults. But new music?

Which is why we have so many successful genres of music today. Used to be if it wasn't on radio it was marginal. Then on MTV. Now you don't even need a label to sell tickets. And there's more money in tickets than recordings anyway. Tickets are expensive and shows bond your audience to you. Live is efficient in a way that radio never was.

But how do you get found online?

Well, if you're trying to work it, your only hope is to have a profile in the genre in which you participate. The other players and the audience must be aware of you. Starting from absolute scratch is nearly impossible. As is worldwide domination. The majors still control Top Forty, but it means less than it ever has in its history. The majors fight for slots in the Spotify Top 50, but some of those acts are one hit wonders. Furthermore, as detailed by "Billboard," the majors can't even break a new act anymore. Acts come from the bottom up, not the top down. The bottom up is the internet, top down is manipulation, the aforesaid radio and TV and...if this were working, we'd have new breakout stars, but we don't.

As for dead tree publicity...it works for acts for the aged, it's irrelevant when it comes to youngsters, who are active consumers. Everything that moves the needle is online. Which is a great miasma of information.

Then again, "Rich Men of North Richmond" breaks the paradigm, it is unique. Because it was grown by the public and agitated politicians, who pushed the number. Yes, politicians and their news outlet penumbra have more power than terrestrial radio, traditional TV, anything.

Turns out organic is desirable. And if you're organic, you have a chance of being embraced by people who will promote you.

"Rich Men North of Richmond" is not "Try That in a Small Town." Jason Aldean came from Macon, and he didn't even write the song. And the controversy superseded the track. Which shot up and then fell online, which is the only place where you can make any money. Aldean is #10 on this week's Mediabase Country chart, but "Try That in a Small Town" is #32 on the "Billboard" streaming chart. All that terrestrial radio airplay? The label ain't making a dime. The publisher is. And maybe Aldean's image is being burnished. But when it comes down to money, Oliver Anthony trumps Aldean, period. Because Anthony's consumption figures are much higher.

Mania might get you noticed, but it's the music that sustains you. Which is why Morgan Wallen continues to dominate the charts, with no stunts employed. Wallen can be loved by everybody, it's conventional song structure, with verses and choruses, the basic building blocks. Which are rarely the key elements in the Spotify Top 50, and if they're present the tracks are rarely believable, barely credible.

Something is happening here.

Don't forget, although distributed by a major, Big Loud, Wallen's label, is an independent. Next time will the independent do it themselves?

Do you sell your soul to the company man?

That's what we've been told to do for decades. To take the money. Forget the audience perception. Sell your songs, better to have the cash than the control.

Maybe that's all wrong.

Maybe radio is no longer all powerful.

Maybe Oliver Anthony is a harbinger of what's to come.

But maybe not.

But one thing is for sure, terrestrial radio is circling the drain when it comes to breaking acts. It's never meant less. Maybe you want it to be part of your marketing campaign, but if you're making it number one, you're missing the target.


--
Visit the archive: http://lefsetz.com/wordpress/
--
Listen to the podcast:
-iHeart: https://ihr.fm/2Gi5PFj
-Apple: https://apple.co/2ndmpvp
--
http://www.twitter.com/lefsetz
--
If you would like to subscribe to the LefsetzLetter,
http://www.lefsetz.com/lists/?p=subscribe&id=1

If you do not want to receive any more LefsetzLetters, http://lefsetz.com/lists/?p=unsubscribe&uid=0eecea7b60b461717065cbde887c8e25

To change your email address http://lefsetz.com/lists/?p=preferences&uid=0eecea7b60b461717065cbde887c8e25