Slow Coachella

"Coachella tickets went on sale on Friday, Jan. 19. And four days later, tickets for the festival's first weekend are still up for grabs —  for the first time in a decade."

"Coachella Festival sees slowest ticket sales in 10 years": https://rb.gy/h2dbwd

This is not a Coachella story, this is a music business story. It's a harbinger of what's to come. In other words, we're minting very few mass appeal stars, never mind superstars.

Don't worry about Coachella. Ticket sales are slower, but the ducats will still sell. Yet what does this mean?

For years Coachella headliners were boomer and then Gen-X favorites. Hell, it started out as an alternative music festival. And then it was boosted by the Sahara Tent/EDM scene.

But Coachella evolved. It used to be a gathering of the tribe. Of all those dedicated to music, who lived for the music, who had to make a pilgrimage to the desert to experience the latest and the greatest, to be hip. But over the years it became a rite of passage for Los Angeles teenagers. A spring awakening affair. Come on, you've seen all the hype about the stars and their outfits. What you were going to wear, the selfies you were gonna shoot, became more important than the music on stage.

Which meant that Coachella could sell out before any headliners were announced.

But now...

I've got to give Paul Tollett credit. He moved into this century, the present. He knew who his audience was. He stopped appealing to oldsters and focused the lineup on the youngsters who really came to the festival.

But those youngsters changed. Now Mr. Beast is bigger than anybody on a Coachella stage. Influencers have a tighter bond with their audience than musical acts. And everybody is a star themselves, posting. They don't need the physical environment, they've got an endless world online. This is akin to the decline of the movie business, other than event films why do you have to go to the theatre when it's a better experience at home? Even worse, now the superhero movies are stalling. I mean how many times can you repeat the same formula?

You can take a train to Glastonbury. And the English music market is more cohesive anyway. People follow music like sports, they know who is number one, and they're still minting new stars in the U.K., but most don't cross over to the U.S.

But taking a train to Coachella?

No, Coachella is a commitment, an expensive commitment, you don't go on a whim.

Which is an advantage that Lollapalooza in Chicago and Outside Lands in San Francisco have, but neither has the gravitas, the image or the gross of Coachella. That's right, Coachella is the highest grossing event IN THE WORLD!

Once again, don't worry about Coachella. They've got a ton of income streams and they'll sell all the tickets anyway, whatever is left is going to move after the first weekend starts to play, if there is any inventory left. But what is the future?

Well, nothing lasts forever. Not that I think that Coachella will die. But usually it's those involved who are the last to know before anything is over. The public mood shifts, it's nearly imperceptible, and then it is. I mean let's be clear, the Coachella experience is far from perfect. Even if you're a VIP there are a ton of people there, you're being elbowed. This is not Bottlerock, an exclusive, upscale, much smaller affair. Coachella is mass. So therefore it must have mass appeal.

But Doja Cat? Oh, she's all over the media. This is the kind of act the press likes. That streams, that makes news. Tyler, The Creator? He's been in the marketplace for years now, but he's never been ubiquitous. And as many hosannas as Lana Del Rey receives, she is not a mass appeal artist. As in her cuts are not at the top of the Spotify Top 50.

But then there's the undercard. Absolutely horrifying. Too many acts you don't know and don't care about. Usually there's a tier of stars right under the headliners, but not at Coachella this year.

Peso Pluma on Friday? A star, but definitely not the crush of this audience. And then Lil Uzi Vert, who peaked a few years back. And then Justice? And it goes downhill from there.

And on Saturday you've got Blur, which never really broke in America and doesn't appeal to the target audience of this festival, Blur skews older, like Gen-X older. And then there's Ice Spice, the flavor of the moment, and from there, Gesaffelstein?

And on Sunday there's J. Balvin. But then Jhené Aiko. Don't read beyond there, even a sixteen year old won't know most of the acts.

As for the special guest... No Doubt? How many hits did the act really have? Gwen Stefani is 54 years old. Sure, she's been on a TV game show, but look at the demo, it's old, like very old, like doesn't even go to any shows at all old!

So, watcha gonna do?

Well, all of Coachella's competitors are buying insurance. As in older acts. Whereas Coachella's lineup is more of a statement, a sign of the future.

Well the future is going to be very few superstars and a lot of thin verticals.

Of course Taylor Swift could sell out Coachella with no one else on the bill, period. But Taylor Swift had her first hit in 2006, when the target audience still had CD players.

And Pink plays stadiums. But her first hit was back in 2000, before many Coachella attendees were even born!

And Def Leppard/Motley Crue/Journey in some combination can also sell out stadiums, but those were never Coachella acts, those acts never got respect from this audience.

As for Morgan Wallen?

He's a country act. And he's playing Stagecoach, the weekend after Coachella, the poor stepsister.

But look at that lineup!

Friday you've got Eric Church. And then Jelly Roll, Elle King, Dwight Yoakam...

And on Saturday you've got Miranda Lambert, Post Malone, Willie Nelson, Leon Bridges, Ernest...

And On Sunday you've got the aforementioned Wallen along with Hardy, Bailey Zimmerman and even the Beach Boys.

As for the No Doubt slot, you've got the constantly derided yet bigger fan favorite Nickelback as well as Diplo and Wiz Khalifa! And even Guy Fieri, who reaches more people in more demos on TV than Gwen Stefani!

Yes, there's more action, more excitement in country music than hip-hop and pop. Because there's more authenticity, and there's still a controlled radio market. Expect the scene to fragment as terrestrial radio continues to fade, but unlike hard rockers, country fans stream their favorites.

That's the story of the past year, country and Latin.

But all the news is about hip-hop and pop. But where are the new stars?

Of course there's Zach Bryan, who at this point is a stadium act. But he too is really country, not a hard drive in sight, more authentic than what the pop and hip-hop acts are selling.

So just like the music industry said CDs were forever, that no one would want files, never mind streaming, these same wankers are saying we still live in a Top Forty world minting ubiquitous stars.

Well, Drake and the Weeknd could headline Coachella. But if you're looking for universal hip-hop and pop stars, new ones, its slim pickings.

Maybe the entire music ecosystem has to adjust and give the people what they want. Maybe Stagecoach is two weekends.

But one thing is for sure, those who think they're in control no longer are. They can promote these cartoons, who are akin to the superhero movies, and there's an audience for them, but it's far from everybody.

Now I became aware of this soft sales story last night. I got an e-mail about it, and then started Googling, there was only one story, the one linked to atop this screed. Ditto this morning. But now, just hours later, TMZ has gotten on the case. Ultimately just repeating the "SFGATE" story, but TMZ and its stories reach more people than the Top Forty pop and hip-hop wonders.

And now other outlets are picking it up.

So what we're going to have is a negative public perception, irrelevant of any truth. Yes, there's a trend here, but Coachella represents more than its lineup, those tickets will move.

But as we move into the future, as the classic acts retire, who is going to headline these festivals? The major labels can't even break an act, never mind a superstar. And just because someone has streams that does not mean people are dying to see them perform live. And oftentimes the owners of these online hits have no live performance skills anyway.

But will there be an adjustment? This is the same music industry that stumbled blindly into the future and was decimated until a young techie from Sweden saved it. So don't expect those in power to make any changes. They're laying people off at Universal, it's not like the fat cats are going to sacrifice any of their salary. Furthermore, the company is sitting on its catalog, which will pay dividends for decades and decades.

No, this is a fat and satisfied industry. You can build stars on the road, but recordings turn them into festival headliners. And if labels don't take risks with new kinds of music, build worthwhile acts from close to scratch... Be ready for a course correction, the winds are blowing the business off its usual path and no one even recognizes it, they won't until it affects their pocketbook, a day late and a dollar short, as per usual.


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