Don't React To The Snapshot

How much impact does Taylor Swift coming out for Harris have today?

As a matter of fact, "The Washington Post" thinks Bad Bunny would have a bigger effect.

"The pop star endorsement that could really sing the election? Bad Bunny. The Puerto Rican superstar has a huge voice and a ton of influence — especially among Latinos and young voters."

Free link: https://wapo.st/3XAve3B

But the truth is neither star will have a noticeable effect, the only way to have an impact is to come out THE NIGHT BEFORE THE ELECTION! Or maybe two or three days, the length of the hoopla over Swift's post after the debate.

If you're trusting the mainstream media to predict the future, you're going to be wrong all the time. Because their paradigm is to presents news every day. MSNBC and Fox don't wake up one day and say there's no news, we're going to be dark for twelve hours. Same deal with newspapers. They print each and every day whether the world blew up or the biggest story is the President's cat in a tree. This works for them, as a business, but is it an accurate reflection of society at large, what is going on? ABSOLUTELY NOT!

Hell, let's look at Lebanon. For days, the mainstream press was castigating Israel for the pager/walkie talkie explosions, saying they were done in a vacuum and had little effect, that they needed to be part of a campaign as opposed to happening in isolation. Well, they were wrong, now we've got a war!

Not that I want to equate the prediction market in war with an accurate forecast of culture, but if big media can't get it right with stories like war, what are the odds it is going to get it right on stories of culture?

Nothing lasts unless you stoke the fire each and every day. EACH AND EVERY DAY!

This is something youngsters understand and oldsters decry. Out of sight, out of mind. What happened this morning often doesn't matter tonight! That's how fast the cycle moves. Never mind the fact that many stories don't spread at all, are not known by most.

Think about this. Why should it be any different in politics?

Hell, when was the last time you heard about Joe Biden? Unless you're scanning the cesspool known as X, there's almost a complete blackout. He's in the rearview mirror, he doesn't matter, at least when it comes to the biggest story in the land, the Presidential election.

Today's big story is the "New York Times" poll:

"Trump Shows Signs of Strength in Sun Belt Battlegrounds, Polls Find — New polls from The New York Times and Siena College showed Donald J. Trump ahead in Arizona and leading in tight races in Georgia and North Carolina."

Free link: https://t.ly/VXfsZ

This story/poll is only good for one thing, to scare Democrats out of their complacency, to make them aware that Trump could still win. Other than that?

Go deeper and you'll find articles quoting the Selzer poll, and questioning whether Trump is underpolling. All interesting points, but all nearly irrelevant when it comes to the election. Nate Silver updates his numbers EACH AND EVERY DAY! Good for Nate Silver, it keeps his name in the news, those in the commentariat are paying attention, but what does this have to do with the public at large? Not much. Things really don't change in a day. And the dirty little secret is the margin of error is large enough such that either candidate could win and the pollsters would say they're right.

But this isn't really about politics, but about EVERYTHING!

You've got to play around the clock. You've got to keep at it. You've got to release new music. At least have videos on YouTube. You've got to find a way TO KEEP ATTENTION!

This is a completely different battle from getting attention, which is nearly impossible, at least on a grand scale. As days go by what is being consumed in music and TV is getting ever broader. The public wants different things. Hollywood may be making less TV, but that just means that viewers wanting a wider palette of product are going to YouTube, TikTok and Instagram. If you don't give the people what they want, they'll go elsewhere.

I'm not saying that you should be crippled by your audience, only that fans want to hear more about and from you, that's their main desire. Streaming a new album every few years and seeing you live on that cycle is not enough to keep you top of mind. If you're a pre-internet act, it's different. But if you came on the scene in the last fifteen years, this is reality.

The problem for the movie business is MOST PEOPLE HAVE TUNED OUT! Most people are never going to the theatre. Because the movie business kept releasing fewer and fewer titles in fewer and fewer genres. Looking at their bottom line, they've been losing their business.

Same deal with the major record labels.

And when it comes to news, any story at all, ALMOST NOTHING HAS LEGS!

But mainstream media won't tell you this. They'll say something is important and want you to believe this, when this is patently untrue.

One story in the newspaper? Hope your mother is impressed, because almost no one else is. Where are the rest of the mentions?

As for TV... Other than SNL and CBS "Sunday Morning," a television appearance by a musician means nothing. NOTHING!

As a matter of fact, it's not quite clear what means anything. Which is why you need to take most offers, because you never know what will click.

And if you're operating outside your wheelhouse, like musicians and politics, you have to continue to play in this arena. Which most people don't want to do, never mind it's never been proven to work.

But it's a great story. Taylor Swift has dedicated fans, think of all that power! How many of those who clicked through to the voter registration site upon Swift's announcement actually registered, never mind will actually vote? Maybe if Swift goes all out just before the election, starts canvassing herself, but I doubt she'll do that, it's too far off brand, it's too risky.

You've got to be in the game constantly to win.

Isn't this how Trump got all that notice to begin with? By being on "The Apprentice"? And even that game is dead. A reality series everybody watches? Come on. You're better off being on HGTV.

I have my longstanding interests and beliefs. And so do you. And they take up a lot of time. For us to insert new areas of interest, for them to get mindshare, is a very heavy lift. Sure, there are mass movements, but I must ask you, after the protests in the wake of the death of George Floyd what has really changed?

Hell, the Democrats couldn't convince enough people to elect Hillary because of Supreme Court nominations. Then Trump got elected, appointed judges and they eradicated Roe v. Wade. Sure, it's hard to get people to project into the future, but if you want to do this you must hammer your story every day, EVERY DAY!

And we all seem to know about them eating pets in Springfield, we may have seen the memes. But I guarantee you most of what is hot on social media today eludes most people. And acts sell out Madison Square Garden that you've never heard of!

This is not about politics, this is about a change in society that everybody in mainstream media refuses to acknowledge, if they even realize it. Hell, I'm a nobody and I seem to know more what is going on with the public because I hear from people constantly, whereas reporters for the big outlets call their friends in D.C. They don't know the Trump voters. Believe me, I do.

And I'm not the only one.

And if you stick your head out, it's going to get cut off. So most people are afraid to. And therefore we end up with a skewed view.

And just to go one step further, Harris is outspending Trump online:

"Harris, With an Online Avalanche, Outspends Trump by Tens of Millions - The week of their debate, Kamala Harris outspent Donald Trump by 20 to 1 on Facebook and Instagram. It was just one sign of how uneven their online advertising battle has become."

Free link: https://t.ly/IGyr7

You don't know this unless you've read this article (the mainstream media is not always wrong, don't throw the baby out with the bathwater). But the difference is online advertising is one to one, whereas TV is one to many. Therefore, you may not feel a presence, but if you've watched a YouTube video in the past week or two, you've seen Harris's face again and again and again. We keep reading about the fundraising wars, but until this article it wasn't clear exactly where the money is being spent.

Trump is speaking at rallies with double digit thousands, if that. Harris is reaching millions, it's a stealth operation. It's like when an act suddenly becomes big without a hit, like Zach Bryan. How did that happen? It's not like he was on the radio, it's not like the mainstream media was writing about him, it was all word of mouth online.

Even Trump's getting shot is in the rearview mirror. The pundits said this would change the election, that Trump's victory was now assured. Nobody says that anymore, and if it weren't for the new shooter on the golf course, it wouldn't be mentioned almost at all.

It's old news.

Your job is to make new news. But only to the people who count.

That's why music on TV no longer works. Not enough of the target audience are tuned in, never mind the ratings of these shows have gone down.

It's easy to rely on the past. Because the future, the present, is unclear. And no one from the old world likes this, this lack of context.

But this is the world we live in.

It moves fast, it evolves. Don't fall prey to the oldsters selling the old stuff in the same way.

Then you'll have no idea what is truly going on.

I'm not saying everybody is untrustworthy, I'm not saying to do your own research in an echo chamber to come to an inane result, but unless you're online, taking the temperature constantly, you really don't know what is going on. And not everybody can monitor everything, because just following a few things takes so much time and effort.

How do you become top of mind and stay top of mind?

That's the question you should be asking yourself.


--
Visit the archive: http://lefsetz.com/wordpress/
--
Listen to the podcast:
-iHeart: https://ihr.fm/2Gi5PFj
-Apple: https://apple.co/2ndmpvp
--
http://www.twitter.com/lefsetz
--
If you would like to subscribe to the LefsetzLetter,
http://www.lefsetz.com/lists/?p=subscribe&id=1

If you do not want to receive any more LefsetzLetters, http://lefsetz.com/lists/?p=unsubscribe&uid=0eecea7b60b461717065cbde887c8e25

To change your email address http://lefsetz.com/lists/?p=preferences&uid=0eecea7b60b461717065cbde887c8e25