Will the war in Ukraine reset the music business? I certainly hope so, but it's highly doubtful.
People always tell me it's the same as it ever was. That I'm just too old. That music means just as much to today's younger generations, and is just as intrinsically meaningful. But that is patently untrue. Music is just one element of listeners' entertainment portfolio, and that's what music is, entertainment. For a while there, certainly back in the sixties, it used to mean so much more.
So the biggest music business story of the past month is the self-immolation of Ye. Brain dead reporters tell the story and no one stops the action. When Ye ultimately goes to the hospital, or something even worse happens, what are these same people going to say? They promoted the train-wreck, just like they promoted Donald Trump.
Trump was a symptom, not a causation. And as time goes by, he's losing his hold not only on America, but his constituency. They've seen the movie, there's not that much there. Just grandstanding. The truth is irrelevant, it's all about attention. But Trump's attention is fading, you see he's out of time, the world changed and he did not. That's one of the stories of the past month, how we've all come together, and the only people who haven't are Trump and the blowhards at Fox News. They said Putin was an admirable ally, who they could control, who had no effect on the lives of Americans. Well, have you filled your gas tank recently? But it's worse, democracy hangs in the balance. Suddenly, all of America is on the same page. Yes, there are fearmongers on both the extreme right and left who say we should mind our own business and stay out, but sometimes you have to move in.
So Ye employs the same playbook as Trump. It's all about attention. Well, you know who is the king of attention? Vladimir Putin. Illustrating that the rest of what we're spending time on is ultimately irrelevant, and an autocrat starting a war trumps everything.
Yes, Kim Kardashian. All the rest using attention to flog products and make money. It rubs us the wrong way today. But that's all they've got, they possess no credibility, you see they thought dollars trumped everything, but this is not true. Unless you've got more dollars than anybody in music can make, like a corporation.
You see in the sixties, the corporations were the enemy. And credibility was everything. What you stood for counted. And you didn't take a side without thinking it through. Brains were more important than dollars. No one on trial in Chicago was doing it to get rich. Although when the mores changed Jerry Rubin tried to go straight, he even became a stockbroker. But by that point no one cared, he was a curio to be laughed at.
So what the musical acts of the sixties realized was that the music itself had power. That the money was secondary. That the bond between act and fan was key. Fans are the lifeblood of a musical act. And if you put someone else in front of them, you sacrifice their belief, and ultimately their numbers. Used to be the act and their music were singular, and that was enough, and therefore they had so much power!
But we haven't had that spirit here since 1985, since Live Aid. Live Aid was a culmination of what had come before. Woodstock, the Concert for Bangladesh, Bob Geldof thought he could meld MTV with old school philanthropic feeling and make a difference. And it worked! We can argue all day long about whether the funds reached their intended recipients, but one thing is for sure, Live Aid raised awareness, everybody in the world was suddenly aware that there was a famine in Ethiopia. When was the last time music told us which way the wind blew? Turns out we need a weatherman for that, or an app.
Yes, that was the story of the late nineties. Tech. It blew up. And the music business was at the center of it. Because the files were small, and the desire for acquisition was through the roof. For ten years the music business was exciting. But then Spotify came along and solved the problem and...the people who are arguing about Spotify payments are missing the point. Not that anything I write here will convince them they're wrong. The ball moves, and if you don't move with it one day you wake up and are left behind. If you're complaining about Spotify payments you're on the road to irrelevance. Use the new tools of technology to make your music, reach your audience and grow it. There are plenty of avenues of monetization, to focus on recording revenue is like trying to save gasoline cars. Imagine how great it would be if America was now all electric. You've got to evolve, life is never static. If you're not willing to throw over everything you know then not only are you part of the problem as opposed to part of the solution, you're left in the dust.
So the biggest music business story of the past year was Lucian Grainge's nine figure payout. Making more than almost all of the acts. For doing exactly what? Growing a record company. He was rewarded. The acts were not. And maybe the new acts don't deserve to be, because they're not as smart as Grainge, give him credit, he knew where the puck was going, and it's all as a result of streaming, but...
Lucian Grainge is irrelevant too. He could have been the first mover. Pulling out of Russia. But he took a stand long after the fact, looking me-too as opposed to leading. It's the big corporations who led. The enemy of the sixties. And believe me, they're far from perfect, but they were willing to take a stand and lose money because it was the right thing to do. When was the last time you saw a musician do this? Essentially NEVER!
Come on, Stanley Black & Decker is gonna lose a fortune, at least by music business standards. The company did $150 million a year in Russia. It has $30 to $40 million in inventory there. And about a hundred employees. And what is Stanley Black & Decker doing? Walking away!
Yeah, unfortunately Stanley Black & Decker's products have more credibility than today's music. They do the job, they satisfy, they last. There are no seasonal tools, you build it to sell forever.
Read about companies exiting Russia here:
"No Ikea Shelves, No Levis: The Retail Exodus From Russia Is On - Since the invasion of Ukraine began, the increasing financial and reputational risks of doing business in Russia are leading Western brands to halt operations": https://nyti.ms/3MGz593
Andy Gould e-mailed me marveling that the acts haven't united and taken a stand. He implored me to make them. But what would that look like? Everybody knows the issue. And the acts are two-dimensional today, they're not musicians, they're stars. It's all about the money. Who is going to be excited to watch them? I mean give Geldof credit, he reunited Pink Floyd for Live 8, but in truth the benefit concert is so long in the tooth, has become so repetitive, that few even bother to watch.
Of course there is a solution. Not that I think it will make any difference. You reunite Led Zeppelin and Journey. Even Crosby, Stills & Nash. So you end up with event status. But what is the message? Everybody knows Ukraine is a quagmire, that Putin is out of his mind, and the money musicians can raise is a drop in the bucket. Every little bit counts, but we need a lot more zeros, and a lot more revenue streams.
As for new acts... Who has the reach and credibility to move the needle. NO ONE! At best they're caught up in petty wars online. Complaining about haters, focusing on the micro as opposed to the macro. I mean a rap beef? Seems quaint in comparison with the Ukrainian situation. Then again, we haven't been able to stop the rap killings, because if it's black on black crime, not enough white people care. But when white kids, the sons and daughters of politicians, started O.D.'ing from opiates, then there was outrage, then Purdue Pharma became a pariah.
So, there are no building blocks in music. Furthermore, the big acts that there are don't want to take a stand on anything, for fear of alienating part of their audience. But politics has been the story of the past ten years. And rust never sleeps, and neither does hatred. Music was a refuge for LGBTQ people, but now we've got states impinging on their rights. But no one stands up.
Then again, it's usually the old acts who stand up, to the point where they lose effect for doing so. I mean give Bruce Springsteen credit, he was on the right side of so much, but when it's just him and his brethren, it gets derided.
Then again, derision and hatred are the ethos of today's America. Everybody feels they're entitled to a say. We're a nation of individuals. But suddenly, the war in Ukraine has brought us all together.
And the corporations are taking the lead.
As for the music business, today's big story is TikTok is going into distribution. This may be where the three major labels ultimately lose their power. Distribution is king. And if you have the youngsters... The youngsters know it's not about radio and the mainstream media, where the aged labels have their power. But the labels do have catalogs, and they wield them, but they're losing control of new music, and this is a good thing, because they are doing nothing for music itself.
As for musicians at home creating, broke and credible... It's incumbent upon you to grow your audience and ultimately have leverage, you can't piggyback on the general industry's power.
So...
Music has had no effect, no impact on the Ukraine war whatsoever. I mean give Pussy Riot credit, they were willing to go to jail for their beliefs. Navalny was willing to go back to Russia to go to jail, after the government poisoned him. Zelenskyy is willing to die! These people have backbones, they are leaders. It's got nothing to do with their bank balances, no one is concerned with them, by taking a stand, by rising to the occasion, by doing what is right, they've gone to the head of the class. Come on, if you admire any of today's wanker musicians more than Zelenskyy you're brain dead. There's a good chance he's going to die. No one in music wants to sacrifice their life. But your gravitas is based on what you're willing to sacrifice.
Which is why corporations are now in power. Disney ultimately stood up to Florida and its anti-gay policies, albeit a day late and a dollar short. Will it make a difference? Change happens slowly, then overnight.
So when you say music is the same as it ever was, you're just plain wrong. Music has sacrificed its essence, its universality, it has followed remuneration right off the cliff. As for those who complain they're not making enough, did Woody Guthrie or Pete Seeger complain they weren't getting rich? Of course not! But we remember their names. Their songs are embedded in the fabric of American culture, none of today's songs will be.
To change the world you have to take the road less traveled, be willing to go against the grain, trust your gut. And it's these elements that blew up music fifty years ago. I'll be satisfied with a reset of values. And maybe from that can come good new music, that has a cultural impact. I mean it's astounding how TikTok has single-handedly stolen the attention of America, and it's all about letting people have their say, mostly to music. This is the kind of innovation we need. But we don't get it. Because no one is willing to risk.
So, it's a sad state of affairs.
I mean at some point Ukraine is gonna fall to Russia. But then what? Actually, we should be asking this question now. And the truth is people like Biden and the heads of the European Union countries are. They're gonna have to come up with a plan. And it's going to affect you and me. And if you think their goal is to screw you, to make bank, then you've got the former guy in mind, not the one in the White House.
So, instead of conjuring up ways to sell NFTs, worthless items that only have value because a certain number of people agree they do, why not turn to the real issues of the world. And there are plenty. Democracy. Global warming. Income inequality. It's time for Americans to stop being myopic and focus on the big issues. But the good thing is to a great degree they are! They're willing to pay higher gas prices for the cause. They're united against the threat. Maybe this will pay further dividends down the road. I certainly hope so.
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